George Osborne is utterly convinced that he is going to be the next chancellor. That is the one message that I take away from the austere speech that we've just heard. The Tories' Treasury spokesman showed himself to be less interested in winning applause from his party today than in strengthening his hand in the inevitable arguments with his cabinet colleagues in spending departments once he gets into No 11.

By loudly declaring that the party's over, Osborne establishes the expectation that retrenchment will be the watchword of the prospective Tory government. Gordon Brown took a very similar tack ahead of 1997, and – of course – he proved to be a very dominant chancellor.

The terrifically stern, and remarkably old-fashioned, talk of "sound money" stirred grainy images of the 1930s. As well as strengthening the chancellor's hand in office, it was designed to make him look responsible to the voters. But Osborne knew he had to produce at least one goodie for the troops. That arrived in the form of a pledge to freeze council tax.

The move promises to hand £2bn back to taxpayers. To preserve the unremitting message that the cupboard is bare, however, Osborne insists that the move is not a tax cut at all. This is sophistry, justified by pointing out that the grant from central government to town halls will increase to help finance the scheme. But – if it could be made to work, which is questionable – cuts in Whitehall and council spending would be handed back to the voters. That sounds like a tax cut to me.

So here we have a giveaway that dare not speak its name. Its inclusion in the midst of a stern sermon on prudence suggests that Osborne understands that the bread-and-water strain of austerity politics will only take him so far.