Graeme Wearden (until 2pm) and Nick Fletcher (now) 

Greek PM intensifies diplomatic push – live updates

Rolling business and financial news, as Greece’s prime minister seeks talks with Angela Merkel, and announces he’ll visit Moscow a month early
  
  

Mario Draghi's QE plan aims to refrwsh the flagging eurozone and ward off deflation.
German chancellor and ECB chief met to discuss the state of the eurozone today Photograph: Yves Herman/Reuters

European markets close mixed

With the continuing war of words between Greece and the eurozone, a fall on Wall Street ahead of the Federal Reserve’s statement on Wednesday and a disappointing German confidence survey, markets ended in negative territory for the most part. An exception was the UK, with oil companies boosted by hopes for tax breaks in Wednesday’s Budget statement. The final scores showed:

  • The FTSE 100 finished 33.53 points or 0.49% higher at 6837.61
  • Germany’s Dax fell back from Monday’s record to end 1.54% lower at 11,980.85
  • France’s Cac closed 0.64% down at 5028.93
  • Italy’s FTSE MIB lost 0.91% to 22,723.06
  • Spain’s Ibex ended down 0.78% at 11,028.1
  • The Athens market added 0.88% to 769.77

On Wall Street, the Dow Jones Industrial Average is currently 111 points or 0.62% lower.

On that note its time to close up for the evening, and thanks for all your comments.

Greece has reacted with fury to Dijsselbloem’s comments raising the prospect of a Cyprus style bail-in on Greek banks, reports our correspondent in Athens Helena Smith.

“It would be useful for all if Mr Dijsselbloem respects his institutional role in the euro zone. It is hard for us to comprehend the reasons that propel him to make statements that are not in accordance with the role that he has been given,” said the government spokesman Gavriel Sakellarides in a hard-hitting statement. The Eurogroup chief was peddling fantasy scenarios, he added.

“We consider it unnecessary to remind [everyone] that the Greek republic cannot be blackmailed.”



Dijsselbloem raises prospect of capital controls to prevent Grexit

Here’s a full report from Bloomberg on Eurogroup president Jeroen Dijsselbloem and his comments on possible capital controls to prevent a Grexit:

[Dijsselbloem] raised the possibility of using capital controls to prevent Greece from leaving the euro, the most explicit mention of that option to date by a top European policy maker.

Dijsselbloem, who heads the group of euro area finance ministers, told BNR Nieuwsradio Tuesday that the 2013 Cypriot bailout shows temporarily shutting banks and restricting the flow of capital could stabilize Greece’s financial system and allow it to remain part of the currency union.

“It’s been explored what should happen if a country gets into deep trouble -- that doesn’t immediately have to be an exit scenario,” he said. For Cyprus, “we had to take radical measures, banks were closed for a while and capital flows within and out of the country were tied to all kinds of conditions, but you can think of all kinds of scenarios.”

The full report is here.

Updated

Greece is calling for fair treatment not special treatment from the rest of the eurozone.

An article in the FT by Greek deputy prime minister Yannis Dragasakis, co-authored by finance minister Yanis Varoufakis and minister for international economic affairs Euclid Tsakalotos says:

It is a common belief that the Greek government is seeking special treatment relative to other stressed eurozone members. We are not; we are seeking equal treatment.

Since the onset of the crisis, our economy has shrunk 26%; unemployment has risen from 8 to 26%; and wages have declined 33%. These outcomes are worse than those experienced by any country during the 1930s and far worse than those projected under the two Greek adjustment programmes. This is why the Greek government has criticised these programmes...

While the crisis has made matters worse for Greece and others, it has had unintended — but positive — consequences for “core” eurozone countries. Germany and others have benefited from exchange and interest rates that are lower than they would have faced had they still had their own currencies....

[Greece] is in a position like that of Sisyphus — a man condemned to roll a boulder to the top of a hill, only to see it roll down again. Greeks have implemented austerity and have suffered much more than expected. Many of the 60% of young people out of work will one day be reclassified as long-term unemployed. We risk condemning an entire generation to a future without hope. To avoid that, what we ask from our eurozone partners is to treat Greece as an equal and help us escape from this Sisyphean trap.

The full piece is here (£):

All we ask is that Europe give Greece a chance

The International Monetary Fund has cut its estimate for Portugal’s budget deficit this year to 3.2% of GDP from its 3.4% forecast in January.

But this is still higher than the 2.7% predicted by the country’s government, and the IMF said Portugal needs to press ahead with structural reforms:

Portugal’s economic recovery is expected to strengthen this year. Under the economic adjustment program, severe imbalances were corrected, growth was restored and unemployment began to decline. However, long-standing challenges will require sustained structural reforms. A confluence of positive external factors – a more favorable euro exchange rate, a highly supportive monetary policy environment, and low oil prices - provides an excellent window of opportunity to undertake these reforms.

The full statement from the IMF mission is here.

Eurogroup president Jeroen Dijsselbloem has apparently been upping the ante in the tortuous stand off between Greece and the eurozone:

And speaking of wartime reparations, here are the latest developments:

Several senior Social Democrats (SPD) and Greens in Germany have for the first time said their nation should consider paying reparations to Greece for Nazi crimes committed during the second world war, breaking ranks with Angela Merkel’s government.

Relations between Germany and Greece have deteriorated as Athens tries to renegotiate its bailout terms and Berlin fears it will ditch previously agreed financial promises.

The Greek prime minister, Alexis Tsipras, who is due to meet Merkel in Berlin on Monday, has accused Germany of using tricks to avoid paying reparations. One of his ministers raised the prospect of seizing German property to compensate victims of a Nazi massacre.

While Berlin says it has honoured its obligations, including a DM115m payment to Greece in 1960 (around £45m at the time), some mainstream German politicians have gone against government policy and said it was impossible to draw a line under the highly charged issue.

Full story here:

German politicians admit Greece has case for wartime reparations

Back with Greece, and I think this comes under the heading of “every little helps”:

Wall Street has opened sharply lower after Monday’s rally, ahead of the two day US Federal Reserve meeting which begins today.

The central bank’s statement about interest rates and its economic projections will be released on Wednesday.

Economists will be watching the wording of the statement carefully to try and gauge when the Fed will raise rates. It could all boil down to one word: if the central bank removes its pledge to be “patient” about lifting rates, this could start the clock ticking in earnest. Ranko Berich, head of market analysis at Monex Europe said:

It’s not often that a crucial monetary policy statement boils down to one word, but [Federal Reserve chair] Janet Yellen has created the perfect set of circumstances for markets to do just this with this week’s Federal Reserve Open Market Committee meeting.

In her recent testimony, Yellen said that rates could rise at any subsequent meeting, just as soon as the Fed removes the word ‘patient’ from its statement on tightening monetary policy. Market attention will therefore be firmly fixed on whether the Fed is confident enough in the recovery to remove this word.

We’ve seen some soft data from the US recently, for example Friday’s Producer Price Index which indicated potential weakness in consumer prices, and the Fed has grounds to continue being patient with rate hikes. However, with expectations so high for a hawkish FOMC statement any disappointment could lead to a large pullback in the dollar, which has been utterly rampant this month.

Ahead of the meeting the Dow Jones Industrial Average has opened lower and is now down almost 160 points or 0.89%, on the basis that a rate rise will strengthen the dollar further - despite the caveat from Berich above - which in turn would hurt stocks.

Updated

Lunchtime summary: Tsipras pushes for diplomatic breakthrough amid cash crunch

Time for a quick recap:

Greek prime minister Alexis Tsipras has intensified his diplomatic efforts over the county’s bailout.

Tsipras is pushing for a five-way meeting to discuss Greece’s funding needs, during the two-day EU Summit starting on Thursday. He hopes that discussions with Angela Merkel, Mario Draghi, Jean-Claude Juncker and Francois Hollande could help to get financial aid flowing to Greece again.

A Greek official has told Reuters that Tsipras made the request personally to Donald Tusk, president of the European Council, in an attempt to find a political breakthrough.

Tsipras is also due in Berlin next Monday to meet Merkel; government spokesman Gabriel Sakellaridis says:

“It will be a meeting of substance, not a meeting for communication purposes or a ‘photo opportunity’ in Berlin.”

But Greece is also looking East. Tsipras’s office has confirmed that the PM will visit Moscow next month, for talks with president Putin.

Tsipras had been expected to visit Russia in May, to take part in Russia’s Victory Parade (marking its World War 2 victory). But, with cash reserves running short, an earlier trip has been scheduled in.

One government source told AFP that:

“The prime minister will visit the Kremlin following an invitation from Russian President Vladimir Putin.”

The Ta Nea newspaper, though, reckons that Athens pushed for an early meeting due to “stifling economic conditions caused in the country from the European side.”

Greece’s creditors are still looking for signs that Athens is implementing economic reforms before it unlocks any of its €7.2bn bailout payment. Officials from the Eurozone’s Working Group will discuss the state of play there this afternoon, on a conference call.

And in the absence of a breakthrough, Greek MPs will begin debating measures to boost liquidity today.

Bloomberg reports:

Unable to access bailout funding and locked out of capital markets, the government will outline emergency plans to parliament later Tuesday that includes incentives for tax delinquents to pay up before March 27, when the government needs money for monthly salaries and pensions.

The uncertainty over Greece’s future still looms over the markets. One Bank of England official has told MPs that a “bad outcome” could cause a market correction.

But the wider European economy is looking a little healthier.

Heads-up. Euro-area finance ministry officials are expected to hold a conference call this afternoon to discuss Greece’s finances, from 3.30pm GMT (5.30pm local time).

That’s a Working Group meeting, points out Efi Efthimiou of financial website CapitalGR.

Updated

Bank official: Greece could trigger market correction

Back in parliament, Bank of England official Alex Brazier has predicted that Greek’s debt problems could spark a selloff in the financial markets.

Brazier (the BoE’s executive director for financial stability) told the Treasury committee that investors could be spooked if the Greek bailout negotiations flounder.

I’ve taken the quotes from Bloomberg:

“A bad outcome in these negotiations could trigger a broader reassessment of risk in financial markets.....

“We start from a position where market pricing looks potentially subject to correction. I don’t view Greece as a big direct risk but it could potentially be a trigger for a market reappraisal”

Brazier also declined to speculate on whether Greece might leave the eurozone; pointing out that it’s not just an economic issue.

He said:

Although the economic issue is in some ways very simple -- there’s a debt overhang that needs to be dealt with -- the way that is dealt with is a political issue and I don’t presume to be able to forecast [that] in any way.

And as mentioned earlier, Brazier also warned that it’s not realistic to expect Greece to repay all its debts.

Eurozone inflation: what the analysts say

Although today’s inflation data showed eurozone prices fell by 0.3% in February, ‘core inflation’ was actually up by 0.7%.

And prices should be pushed higher as ECB’s new QE programme drives the euro down and raises confidence.

Ben Brettell, senior economist at Hargreaves Lansdown, explains:

It is clearly too soon for quantitative easing to be credited with the improvements in inflation and employment, but there is little doubt that Mario Draghi’s €60bn per month programme has lifted sentiment. QE has also resulted in a weaker euro, which should benefit both exporters and domestically-focused firms.

Draghi is fortunate that QE appears to be coinciding with a cyclical recovery – the programme will probably be hailed a success, but in truth the improvement in data may have still happened in its absence. In the final analysis it will make little difference. If the patient recovers, does it matter whether that recovery is due to the medicine working or a placebo effect?

Ranko Berich, head of market analysis at Monex Europe, adds:

“A closer look at the inflation data shows that the cost of la dolce vita is actually increasing across the eurozone, with restaurants, cafes, tobacco and rent prices leading the rise.

Once food, fuel and other volatile items are excluded, core inflation was a much healthier 0.7 per cent year-on-year.

It’s important to remember this data doesn’t even include most of the effects of the ECB’s QE programme, which only started this month. The euro nosedived in March and this will definitely begin to show through in the next batch of figures, boosting the improvement in inflation that today’s data has shown.”

Updated

Bookmaker Paddy Power has hiked the odds on Greece leaving the eurozone this year from 5/1 to 10/1, concluding that Grexit looks less likely.

Here’s the latest odds:

  • 6/4: Greece to adopt official currency other than the Euro by the end of 2018
  • 3/1: Greece to hold another general election in 2015
  • 7/1: European commission to confirm that Greece has ‘defaulted’ on debt in 2015
  • 10/1: Greece to exit the Euro in 2015

The filmmaker who shot Yanis Varoufakis’s Zagreb lecture in 2013 has criticised the media for their coverage of the now-notorious ‘middle finger’ gesture.

Martin Beros says the clip was taken ‘out of context’; German TV, he says, fudged the fact Varoufakis was talking about events back in 2010.

The row shows that many mainstream media outlets aren’t able to engage with and analyse complex narratives, and want to reduce the debt crisis to gestures and posturing, Beros adds.

(hopefully that’s the last word on Mittelfinger-Streit)

There’s no word from Berlin on how the Merkel-Draghi talks are progressing.

But we have heard from Reuters that Greek PM Alexis Tsipras wants to meet them both at the next EU summit on Thursday.

Tsipras is hoping that European Commission chief Jean-Claude Juncker and French President Francois Hollande will also attend, in an attempt to break the deadlock and unlock financial aid for Greece.

It’s unrealistic to expect Greece to repay all its debts, according to a senior Bank of England policymaker.

Alex Brazier, the BoE’s executive director for financial stability strategy and risk, also told MPs on the Treasury Committee this morning that the Greek debt crisis could be a threat to UK companies.

Europe’s jobs crisis eased last year, but there’s still a long way to go.

Eurostat reported that employment across the eurozone rose by 0.9% over the last year, and by 0.1% in the final three months of 2014.

That means the eurozone has clawed back some, but not all, of the jobs lost since the debt crisis began.

Eurostat adds:

Spain and Latvia (both +0.7%), Ireland and Slovakia (both +0.6%) recorded the highest increases in the fourth quarter of 2014 compared with the previous quarter.

Portugal (-1.4%), Cyprus (-0.6%), Poland (-0.3%), Italy (-0.2%) and Malta (-0.1%) recorded decreases.

Readers in Athens may be reaching for the ear plugs today; F16 fighter jets are roaring overhead in preparation for National Independence Day on March 25.

Helena reminds me that the air show was stopped a few years ago; perhaps the new Greek government is keen to celebrate the country’s sovereignty. At least the fuel costs will be lower this year -- given the tumble on the oil price.

German investor morale rises despite Ukraine and Greece

German economic confidence has hit its highest level in over a year, despite the Ukraine crisis and Greece’s debt woes.

The ZEW think tank’s monthly survey of sentiment rose to 54.8, up from 53.0 last month. That’s the highest since February 2014.

ZEW polled around 219 German analysts and investors over the last fortnight, and found that many are more upbeat about the eurozone’s economic prospects.

Economists had expected a higher reading, though, of around 58.2.

ZEW warned that the limited progress in tackling the Greek debt crisis, and the Ukraine conflict, was dampening sentiment.

It’s official: Alexis Tsipras is off to Moscow next month:

Updated

Prices across the eurozone fell by 0.3% year-on-year in February, Eurostat has confirmed, in line with its preliminary estimate.

The data also shows that Greece lurched deeper into deflation, with prices down 1.9% annually.

Britons are spending more on electric cigarettes and craft beer, and less on sat navs and foreign exchange commissions, according to the Office for National Statistics’s annual shake-up of its inflation basket.

The ONS has also added online music streaming, swanky headphones and sweet potatoes to the basket, and kicked out yoghurt drinks, in an attempt to better mirror what we actually spend money on.

More here: E-cigarettes and craft beer added to the CPI basket of goods

Greece’s authoritative Ta Nea is reporting that prime minister Alexis Tsipras has accepted an invitation from Russian president Vladimir Putin to visit Moscow on April 8th.

It comes as the US top diplomat Victoria Nuland holds talks in Athens today amid mounting concerns that a financial collapse of Greece could push the country into Russia’s orbit. Nuland is expected to meet Tsipras at 6pm local time (4pm GMT)

Moscow has said that it would seriously study a Greek request for financial help if ever asked. Athens is playing the geopolitical card in its ongoing negotiations with creditors, points out our correspondent Helena Smith.

And an update on “fingergate” - the latest scandal to ruffle Greek-German relations.

The plot has thickened says Helena Smith, following the Greek finance minister Yanis Varoufakis’ decision to upload the offending video in its entirety on his Twitter account overnight.

What has rather taken the Greek media aback is that the then economics professor is indeed shown making the rude gesture at the 40-minute mark of the filmed talk he presents to a packed audience in Zagreb.

When presented with the video by Germany’s most popular ARD TV program on Sunday, he had denounced the video as “a fake” saying immediately that it had obviously been doctored. Greek commentators are now wondering what to make of it all!

Relations between Germany and Greece continue to deteriorate.

Last night, German finance chief Wolfgang Schäuble said Athens’s new government had destroyed the trust the country had regained with its European partners in recent years.

Athens correspondent Helena Smith reported:

“The new Greek government has totally destroyed the trust of its European partners … this is a serious setback,” the veteran politician, widely seen as the architect of austerity, told a panel in Berlin.

“Until November, Athens was on a road that could have lead it to exit the crisis. This has gone. I don’t know what to do now with Greece.”

The German newspapers, meanwhile, are fixated on whether finance minister Yanis Varoufakis once suggested Greece should have given German ‘the finger’ (as he denied on Sunday).

It makes the front page of the Bild tabloid...

Updated

European stock markets have hit new post-crisis highs this morning.

The FTSEurofirst 300 index, which contains the biggest companies across Europe, rose by 0.1% in early trading to its highest level since late 2007.

Volkswagen shares are up 2.2%, after this morning’s car registration figures showed VW sales had jumped last month.

Updated

The Merkel-Draghi meeting starts in an hour or so:

There’s a one in four chance that Greece will quit the eurozone by the autumn, sending the euro sliding, says investment bank Morgan Stanley this morning.

Morgan Stanley has also changed its mind about the wisdom of buying Greek debt.....

UK consumers can look forward to falling prices.

Supermarket chain Sainsbury’s has predicted that food costs will keep dropping through 2015, as it reported its fifth quarter of declining sales.

CEO Mike Coupe says:

Food deflation is likely to persist for the rest of this calendar year, and competitive pressures on price will continue.”

Updated

Bank of Japan admits inflation could turn negative

Mario Draghi isn’t the only central bank chief with problems.

Over in Japan, governor Haruhiko Kuroda has admitted that the Japanese inflation rate could soon turn negative.

Falling oil prices forced Kuroda to slash his inflation forecasts earlier today, despite the trillions of yen the BOJ has thrown at the economy in an attempt to spur demand and drive prices higher.

Kuroda insisted that the BoJ will still hit its 2% inflation target in around two years, having weakened the yen dramatically in an attempt to stimulate Japan’s economy and end its deflationary malaise.

Germany boosted as EU car sales jump again

Car sales across the European Union have risen for the 18th month running, as the region’s bruised auto industry continues to recover.

New car registrations jumped by 7.3% year-on-year in February, with growth across the region, industry body ACEA reported.

Sales surged by 26.1% in Spain, as a scrappage scheme continued to boost demand, followed by Italy (+13.2%), the UK (+12.0%), Germany (+6.6%) and France (+4.5%).

European car sales finally turned the corner last year, after falling steadily since the financial crisis begin.

Angela Merkel will be pleased to hear that German carmakers are benefitting from the revival. Annual BMW registrations surged by 16.8% in February, with Volkswagen up 11.1% and Daimler up 13.2%.

The Agenda: Merkel and Draghi discuss the eurozone

Good morning, and welcome to our rolling coverage of the world economy, the financial markets, the eurozone and business.

The two most powerful people in the eurozone are meeting face-to-face in Berlin to discuss the state of the single currency.

German chancellor Angela Merkel is entertaining European Central Bank president Mario Draghi in her office this morning.

The gathering is dubbed as a “routine exchange on current eurozone issues”, which ought to include the Greek crisis, Draghi’s huge QE stimulus programme, and the (slowly improving) eurozone economy.

Draghi set the scene for today’s talks last night, telling an audience in Frankfurt that the European economy is healing.

“Most indicators suggest a sustained recovery is taking hold...”

The ECB chief also called for closer political union to strengthen the single currency, declaring:

“A nascent recovery provides us with a window of opportunity, with the conditions to press ahead with reforms that will make the euro area less fragile and vulnerable to shocks.”

New data due this morning will show whether this recovery continues.

At 10am GMT we get the latest ZEW survey of German economic confidence, which may show optimism is rising in Europe’s largest economy.

Updated eurozone inflation data is also due, probably confirming that prices fell by 0.3% year-on-year last month. And a fresh employment survey is likely to show that too many Europeans are still out of work.

The Merkel-Draghi meeting comes as technical talks between Greece’s creditors and the government over its economic reforms continue, in the hope of making enough progress to unlock some bailout funds soon.

I’ll be tracking all the main events through the day.

 

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