Any hope that a torrid start to the year for ITV and other UK commercial broadcasters might lift after the first quarter has been dashed, with early projections of TV advertising revenues down by as much as 20% year-on-year in April, according to media buying agency sources.

ITV, the UK's biggest advertiser-funded commercial broadcaster, is expected to announce further cutbacks largely forced on it by the deteriorating economic situation when it unveils full results for 2008 on 4 March.

Senior media buying sources believe ITV will have no choice but to cut its £1bn-a-year programming budget and axe more jobs. ITV cut 1,000 staff from its 5,500 workforce last autumn.

The most optimistic prediction is a year-on-year fall of 15% in April, with the most pessimistic forecasts suggesting the fall could be well in excess of 20%.

In the first quarter of 2009 TV advertising is forecast to be down about 17% year-on-year, with March the worst performer – down more than 20%. However, many hoped April might mark a change in fortune.

Last year Easter, traditionally a time of heavy TV spending by advertisers, came in March. This year it is in early April, which many hoped would mean a boost to the month's TV trading figures.

"Everyone thought there might be good news by then [April] and Easter was part and parcel of that thought process. I think if anyone was expecting a turnaround [so soon] that was misguided.

"Things look pretty bad and decisions for April [ad spend] are made in February and many advertisers are not in spend mode now," said a director at one media buying agency.

Another senior media buying source said ITV was likely to announce further cuts next month. "There isn't anything we are seeing in the numbers in the year to date that means that the £1bn programme budget and staffing numbers are immune from being cut," said this director at another media buying agency. "It seems inevitable."

However, despite the gloomy short-term projections for TV ad spend, some media buyers hold out hope that conditions will stabilise in the second half of the year.

One pointed out that in the first half of last year the TV advertising market was only slightly down year-on-year, with the economic downturn really biting in the final six months of 2008, so the comparative year-on-year figures for later in 2009 may not be so bad.

"It was the second half of the year in 2008 that fell off a cliff. The hope this year is that we don't see two halves fall off," said this media buying agency director.

Another director of a media buying agency said they believed that the price of TV airtime, the cheapest it has been since the early 1990s, has reached such a cost-effective tipping point that advertisers are starting to return.

"The pattern of TV ad decline is actually leading to quite a lot of clients, progressive ones, picking up on this [value]," said the director. "Some retail clients have been chucking in money because they realise this."

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