The UK could be one of the first countries out of the advertising recession in 2010 and revenues for the final three months of this year will be better than expected, according to new figures from the media buying agency Group M.

However, Group M also cautioned that improved confidence was based on "anecdotes rather than substance", although "this alone may be enough to revive marketing investment".

The WPP-owned agency also warned that the "household consolidation which lies ahead in 2010" could have a negative impact on the UK advertising market next year.

Group M has predicted that the UK could be one of the first countries out of the advertising recession, with a 0.1% year-on-year increase in ad spend in 2010, while most other European markets are expected to have single-digit falls.

But Group M believes that Britain will not return to substantial year-on-year advertising growth – more than 5% – before 2012.

Spending in the UK will fall 11.6% this year compared with 2008, the company said, revising its midyear forecast up from a 14% decline.

"Our midyear forecast predicted a deeper decline of 14% in 2009 UK ad spending," said the Group M futures director, Adam Smith. He added that the improved prediction was sparked in large part by increased ad spending between October and December.

"Both 2009 and 2010 are looking slightly better than we imagined six months ago," said Smith. "Confidence seems to be improving, though based on anecdotes rather than substance. This alone may be enough to revive marketing investment, but it cannot make any easier the fiscal and household consolidation which lies ahead in 2010."

TV advertising spend is predicted to fall 11.6% year on year in 2009 to £2.92bn, but only fall 0.2% next year, according to Group M's revised estimates.

Print advertising is forecast to drop 20.4% year on year in 2009 to £3.9bn, and fall 6.2% next year to £3.6bn.

Meanwhile, the internet and mobile advertising is set to rise 2.7% year on year for 2009 to £3.4bn and rise again in 1010 by 7.3% to £3.7bn.

Overall UK spend by advertisers next year would be the virtually same as 2009, up just 0.1% year on year, but this would still be an improvement after more than a year of precipitous decline, the agency forecast.

Marketers are expected to maintain ad investment going into 2010 despite uncertain consumer demand and pressure to get more marketing for less money, the agency said.

Increased spending for Christmas 2009 and the fact that the recession hit the market for the first time in the 2008 fourth quarter were factors in the upwardly revised forecast, Group M added.

However, there was no real sign of increased spending in the most stricken advertising sectors – financial services, automotive and food.

Between January and September the three categories made up 22% of the ad market, but provided 42% of the year-on-year fall in advertising revenue volume, according to Group M.

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