Nils Pratley 

Osborne’s haven may really be hell

Nils Pratley: Gilt yields are falling, but it's the dire economic outlook that's driving them down
  
  

Chancellor George Osborne
British Chancellor George Osborne talks of Britain being a safe haven for investors, but gilt yields are falling for different reasons. Photograph: Christopher Furlong/Getty Images Photograph: Christopher Furlong/Getty Images

Less than a month after yields on 10-year gilts fell below 3%, they dropped through 2.5% yesterday. Chancellor George Osborne may view this development as encouraging since he can trot out his line about the UK being "a safe haven" because we can borrow cheaply.

Come on, though: yields on many countries' debts are falling because investors are pricing in the risk of recession. Britain's yields were given an extra push downwards today because the latest employment data was dire and because even the hawks on Bank of England's monetary policy committee are now worried by the lack of growth. Safe haven? No: a safe bet that interest rates won't be going up any time soon.

 

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