BP will face pressure from shareholders to prove it can leave a turbulent period in the past as it prepares to reveal its full-year results this week.
The company is expected to follow industry rivals by reporting weaker annual profits after global oil prices fell for a third consecutive year in 2025, in the steepest decline recorded since the Covid pandemic.
City analysts forecast BP profits of about $7.5bn (£5.5bn), down from almost $9bn in 2024, following an expected slump in fourth-quarter earnings after crude prices fell below $60 a barrel for the first time in almost five years.
Meg O’Neill, who will become the chief executive of BP from April, will face pressure from investors to set out a new strategic vision, while activist shareholders continue to push the oil company to prepare for a long-term decline in fossil fuel demand.
This month a group of investors led by the Australasian Centre for Corporate Responsibility, which includes the workplace pension scheme Nest, filed a resolution that called for the company to set out how it would control its spending on oil and gas projects in the years ahead.
Dutch shareholder activists at Follow This are also calling for BP to disclose its strategy for creating shareholder value under scenarios of declining demand for fossil fuels.
BP started up seven new oil and gas projects last year as the company returned its focus to fossil fuels in an effort to resuscitate itsfortunes after trying to diversify into major renewable energy investments. Five of the seven projects were delivered ahead of schedule.
Analysts at Citi told clients in a recent investor note that BP’s share price has outperformed its European rivals by 4.4%, the equivalent of about $4bn of additional equity value over the last six months. They expect that rival Shell’s “material exploration success” off the coast of Brazil could add a further $15bn to $20bn to the company’s value.
“We think all the ingredients are there for a substantial change in narrative,” Citi said.
However, shareholder activists and green groups are preparing to oppose BP’s fresh investments in new fossil fuel projects. They argue the projects will not prove to be financially sustainable as electric vehicles and that the shift to clean energy erodes demand for oil and gas.
“The new chief executive needs to come up with a strategy to address the world’s declining oil and gas markets,” said Mark van Baal, the founder of Follow This.
The International Energy Agency expects oil demand to begin falling from about 2030 in all but its most conservative outlook for global energy use.
Follow This said the new resolution, which was filed ahead of BP’s annual meeting in April, would increase shareholder pressure and focus attention on the financial unsustainability of fossil fuel business models.
“In recent years the strategy has been shaky; shifting from left to right,” Van Baal said. “In our opinion they didn’t fail because, as they suggested, they went too far too fast on green energy. They failed because their strategy was completely unclear.”
