The US labor market grew by more than expected last month, recovering some of the damage inflicted by the federal government shutdown, according to official data.
An estimated 105,000 jobs were lost in October, and 64,000 were added in November, a highly-anticipated report showed on Tuesday.
Jobs growth was higher in November than anticipated by many economists, with a consensus forecast of some 40,000 jobs added.
But the headline unemployment rate continued to climb – and hit 4.6%, a four-year high, last month – amid apprehension around the strength of the US economy.
Previous estimates for overall jobs growth in August and September were also downgraded, from a drop of 4,000 to 26,000, and from growth of 119,000 to 108,000, respectively.
The latest jobs numbers, typically released monthly, were delayed due to the government shutdown. Federal government jobs declined by 162,000 in October, and 6,000 in November.
The latest jobs numbers arrive against a tumultuous background for the US’s economic data, once regarded as the gold standard in government data.
The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) announced that full October jobs data would not be released and November’s jobs data was delayed due to the 43-day federal government shutdown. Questions have also been raised about its accuracy.
Federal Reserve chair Jerome Powell warned last week that the data from the BLS should be treated with a “skeptical eye” while the hangover left from the shutdown works through the system.
There are signs that the US’s job market is weakening. ADP reported US private sector employers shed about 32,000 jobs in November after adding 47,000 jobs in October.
The September jobs report, released late in November due to the federal government shutdown, stated the US added 119,000 jobs, higher than economist predictions. Unemployment rate ticked up from 4.3% to 4.4% in September, its highest level since 2021.
Powell cautioned last week that jobs figures are likely worse than the numbers that have been reported and that Trump’s immigration policies have hurt labor supply, which has kept the unemployment rate relatively flat.
His comments came after the Fed announced it was cutting interest rates by a quarter point, a move toward “risk management” over concerns of a weakening labor market.
“Labor supply has also come down quite sharply. So, you know, if you had a world where there is just no growth in workers and you really don’t need a lot of jobs to have full employment, some people argue that is what we are looking at,” said Powell. “So, there is an overcount in the payroll job numbers, we think, continuing, and it will be corrected. I don’t have an exact month in my head right now. Again, I think forecasters generally understand that. We think it is about 60,000 a month, so 40,000 jobs could be negative 20, but that could be wrong by 10 or 20 in either direction.”
Powell also cautioned about the veracity of the jobs report data due to the lack of data collection in October and early November due to the government shutdown.
“We are going to get data, but we are going to have to look at it carefully and a somewhat skeptical eye by the January meeting,” added Powell.
Economists suggested on Tuesday that the latest jobs report was unlikely to persuade policymakers on the Fed’s open market committee to ease monetary policy, and cut rates, at its next meeting.
“The labor market remains weak, but the pace of deterioration probably is too slow to spur the FOMC to ease again in January,” said Samuel Tombs, chief US economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics.
The BLS has been under attack from the Trump administration. In August, Trump fired BLS commissioner Erika McEntarfer, hours after the July jobs report was published. Trump claimed, without evidence, the report was “rigged” to make him look bad.
His nominee to replace McEntarfer, EJ Antoni, was withdrawn in late September after bipartisan criticism over his lack of qualifications. The BLS was shut down, furloughing staff, during the 43-day shutdown of the federal government and a new nominee to lead the agency has yet to be made.
The lack of leadership at the agency comes as the number of staff at the agency has shrunk under the Trump administration. The agency lost 20% of staff from fiscal year 2024, 2,058 total employees, to proposed staff levels for fiscal year 2026, 1,851 total employees.
