IMF raises China's growth forecast, urges 'more urgent' action
The International Monetary Fund has revised up its forecast for China’s growth, and also urged Beijing to fix “significant” imbalances in its economy.
In its latest assessment, the IMF predicts China will grow by 5% this year and 4.5% percent in 2026, an upward revision of 0.2 and 0.3 percentage points respectively.
This upgrade is due to “welcome macroeconomic policy stimulus measures and lower-than-expected tariffs on China’s exports,” the IMF says.
The Fund also warned that China’s leaders need to take firmer steps to hit their target of shifting to a consumption-led growth model.
They say:
…this transition requires more urgent and forceful expansionary macroeconomic policies, reforms to reduce elevated household savings, and a scaling back of inefficient investment and unwarranted industrial policy support. Such a policy package will also reduce external imbalances.
In the UK housing sector, building firm Berkeley has reported a drop in demand in the run-up to last month’s budget.
Berkeley told the City this morning:
The value of underlying sales reservations was stable for the first four months of the period but has been more subdued since, due to speculation and uncertainty leading up to last month’s Budget.
Despite that, Berekely says it’s on track to meet its pre-tax profit guidance of £450m for this year, following a 7.7% drop in profits in the first half of the year.
Silver at record ahead of US interest rate decision
Silver has hit a new record high, as traders scramble to get their hands on the “devil’s metal” ahead of tonight’s US interest rate decision.
The price of silver rose over $60 per ounce for the first time yesterday, and this morning it’s risen further, to $61.40.
Analysts say a range of factors are pushing up silver; there are shortage fears as demand rises.
Tony Sycamore, market analyst at IG, explains:
Silvers gains are being driven by deepening structural supply deficits—worsened by falling mine production in major regions and persistently low global inventories—combined with rapidly rising industrial demand from the green-energy transition, especially solar photovoltaics, electric vehicles, and AI-related hardware.
Expectations of US interest rate cuts, which weaken the dollar, also push up the value of precious metals.
The US Federal Reserve is widely expected to cut US interest rates tonight, by a quarter of one percentage point.
Introduction: SpaceX aiming for $1.5tn valuation
Good morning, and welcome to our rolling coverage of business, the financial markets and the world economy.
Elon Musk’s SpaceX is aiming to hold one of the biggest stock market listings of all time next year, according to reports.
SpaceX, which designs and manufactures rockets and spacecraft and is pioneering the idea of reusable rockets, is aiming for a valuation over $1trn by selling shares to investors in 2026, Bloomberg and Reuters are both reporting.
Bloomberg says SpaceX is seeking to raise significantly more than $30bn, and targeting a valuation of about $1.5tn for the whole company.
That would be a slightly larger share sale than Saudi Aramco’s IPO in 2019, which raised $29bn, giving the oil giant a valuation of around $1.7tn.
Reuters says SpaceX is hoping to “raise more than $25bn, with a valuation over $1tn”.
A one trillion dollar valuation would put SpaceX into the ranks of the 10 largest US listed companies.
SpaceX is expected to use funds from the public listing to develop space-based data centers, including purchasing the chips required to run them – an idea which both Musk and Google’s CEO Sundar Pichai have shown interest in.
SpaceX is currently developing Starship, the biggest and most powerful rocket ever, which traveled halfway across world in successful test flight in October. It’s designed to take crew and cargo into Earth’s office, to the moon, Mars, and beyond, SpaceX says.
SpaceX also operates rocket flights for other organisations, such as NASA, and runs the fast-growing Starlink satellite internet service.
SpaceX is also understood to be conducting a secondary share sale – allowing insiders to sell shares to other investors – at a reported valuation of $800bn. That put it near against OpenAI in the race for the title of the most valuable private company [The AI company is thought to be preparing for a $1tn IPO next year], but its ambitions now appear to be higher….
The agenda
10am GMT: Treasury Committee hearing on budget with chancellor Rachel Reeves
10.45am GMT: Bank of England governor Andrew Bailey speaks at FT Global Boardroom conference:Noon GMT: US weekly mortgage market data
7pm GMT: US Federal Reserve interest rate decision
7.30pm GMT: Federal Reserve press conference
Updated
