Graeme Wearden 

UK GDP grows 4.8% in Q2; Vectura backs PMI takeover bid; Delta variant hits oil demand – as it happened

UK inhaler maker plans to back tobacco giant Philip Morris International’s takeover bid, despite health charities urging them to oppose it
  
  

A Vectura manufacturing facility.
A Vectura manufacturing facility. Photograph: VECTURA/Reuters

Closing summary

Time to wrap up...

The board of the UK asthma inhaler maker Vectura has unanimously recommended that shareholders accept a controversial £1.1bn takeover bid from the tobacco company Philip Morris International, despite warnings from health charities and public health experts.

The UK economy has rebounded strongly from its winter lockdowns. GDP jumped by 4.8% in April-June, as the easing of restrictions, reopening of hospitality venues spurred a recovery led by household spending.

It’s the fastest Q2 quarterly growth seen in the G7, but still left the economy 4.4% smaller than in Q4 2019 - meaning the UK’s pandemic recovery is lagging.

The economy grew faster than expected in June too, expanding by 1%, helped by a pick-up at restaurants and bars, increased advertising, and more visits to the local GP. But manufacturing only grew modestly, and construction contracted, as builders faced a struggle for materials and labour.

UK exports to the European Union also picked up, rising over their pre-Brexit levels.

But with the recovery uncertain, the TUC is urging ministers to introduce a permanent furlough scheme to help companies put staff onto short-hours in future, if needed.

The shortage of HGV lorry drivers continues to grip the retail sector, with convenience store group McColl’s warning it could hit its profits.

The owner of Currys PC World and Carphone Warehouse is throwing cash at the problem; Dixons Carphone is offering a £1,500 retention bonus to its lorry drivers and the same cash incentive to new recruits.

Pret a Manger staff are considering strike action after the coffee shop chain told them it was permanently cutting pay despite the easing of trading restrictions.

Travel company Tui Group has cut back its summer schedule amid the continued impact of British coronavirus restrictions, despite receiving 1.5m bookings for summer holidays since early May.

Cineworld has revealed it is considering listing part of its business in the US, as the world’s second largest cinema operator reported a $576m (£416m) loss in the first half of the year.

And insurer Aviva has promised to return “at least” £4bn to shareholders by next June after pressure from an activist shareholder.

In the US, jobless claims dropped last week as firms held onto workers amid a tight labor market. There were 375,000 ‘initial claims’ for unemployment support, 12,000 than a week earlier.

But producer price inflation jumped, as good and service companies continued to hike prices.

The International Energy Agency (IEA) has cut its forecast for oil consumption for the rest of the year, warning that the rise of the Delta variant in Asia-Pacific countries has hit energy demand.

US academics have warmed that the UK government’s plan to replace fossil gas with “blue” hydrogen to help meet its climate targets could backfire, and create more emissions than using gas....

In the tech world, Reddit has been valued at $10bn in a new funding round....

...while Facebook could be forced to sell gif creation website Giphy after an investigation by the UK competition regulator found its takeover could harm competition among social media companies and the digital advertising market.

Goodnight. GW

Full story: Vectura board unanimously accepts Philip Morris’s controversial takeover bid

The board of the UK asthma inhaler maker Vectura has unanimously recommended that shareholders accept a controversial £1.1bn takeover bid from the tobacco company Philip Morris International, despite warnings from health charities and public health experts.

The Vectura board said it considered the terms of the final PMI offer “fair and reasonable”. They added that “wider stakeholders could benefit from PMI’s significant financial resources and its intentions to increase research and development investment and to operate Vectura as an autonomous business unit that will form the backbone of its inhaled therapeutics business”.

The move came despite more than 20 health charities, public health experts and doctors sending a letter to the board urging them to reject the bid.

PMI had raised its bid for Vectura to 165p a share last weekend, valuing the firm at £1.1bn and outbidding a rival £958m offer by the US private equity group Carlyle, which had agreed a takeover of Vectura in late May.

More here: Vectura board unanimously accepts Philip Morris’s controversial takeover bid

Asthma UK CEO: PMI takeover of Vectura is 'unacceptable in every possible way'

Sarah Woolnough, the chief executive of Asthma UK and the British Lung Foundation, says the proposed takeover of Vectura by Philip Morris is ‘unacceptable in every possible way’.

Investors must now decide whether or not to accept the Marlboro maker’s 165p-per-share bid, she tweets:

Well, quite...

The FT’s Helen Thomas says it’s a ‘dismal’ situation -- with cash trumping concerns about the damage that PMI’s ownership of Vectura would have.

These concerns are serious. Several health charities had warned that the deal could “legitimise” PMI playing a role in health debates, and also fear it could negatively affect Vectura’s future work.

Vectura board backs Philip Morris's takeover bid

A late newsflash: inhaler group Vectura has backed the takeover offer from tobacco firm Philip Morris International, despite health charities, public health experts and doctors urging them to reject it.

Vectura says it has decided that PMI’s offer, of 165p per share, is superior to the 155 pence per Vectura share offered by private equity firm Carlyle.

Vectura considers the final terms to be “fair and reasonable” so it will unanimously recommend it to shareholders.

They also claims that “wider stakeholders” could benefit from PMI’s ownership (having said last week that they noted the concerns about being owned by a tobacco firm, before it raised its bid).

It says:

The Vectura Directors appreciate Carlyle’s interest in Vectura over this lengthy process and their support for Vectura’s strategy to become one of the market leading CDMOs in the inhalation segment.

However, the Vectura Directors recognise the superior cash price the Final PMI Offer provides Vectura shareholders. The Vectura Directors also note that wider stakeholders could benefit from PMI’s significant financial resources and its intentions to increase research and development investment and to operate Vectura as an autonomous business unit that will form the backbone of its inhaled therapeutics business.

Accordingly, following careful consideration of these factors and their fiduciary duties, the Vectura Directors intend to unanimously recommend the PMI Offer to Vectura shareholders.

PMI’s bid values Vectura at around £1.1bn (the company had until 5pm today to raise its offer, after Carlyle declared its offer final on Tuesday).

And health experts have been deeply alarmed by a tobacco firm buying a company whose products treat conditions caused by smoking.

In a letter to Vectura’s board today, the heads of charities including the British Lung Foundation, Action on Smoking and Health (ASH) and the American Lung Association wrote:

“Vectura’s future commercial viability as a company dedicated to improving respiratory health would be seriously jeopardised should the PMI takeover proceed.”

They noted that Vectura generates the bulk of its annual £200m revenues from making pharmaceuticals that treat smoking-related diseases such as chronic obstructive pulmonary disease. It suggests that if the bid by the Marlboro and Chesterfield maker is successful, PMI would “profit from treating the very illnesses that its products cause”.

The letter also says that:

“2020 was the worst year on record for the negative impact of tobacco on human health, causing an estimated 8 million deaths and tens of millions of serious medical illnesses. PMI has an estimated 15% share of the global cigarette market, yet it is not held accountable for the profound impact its products have on human life”.

Updated

In the City, the FTSE 100 index has closed 27 points lower at 7193, down 0.4%.

That’s mainly due to some blue-chip stocks going ex-dividend today, such as Rio Tinto (-5.5%), while investors weren’t too stirred by this morning’s GDP report either.

The UK-focused FTSE 250 index ended the day basically flat, while European markets continued to climb to new highs.

Updated

Convenience store chain McColl's warns HGV driver shortage could hit profits

Convenience store group McColl’s has warned that the shortage of lorry drives in the UK could hit its profits.

In a statement to the stock market this afternoon, McColl’s warned that its revenues have been impacted by availability issues in stores over recent months, due to supply chain disruption:

This has been caused by the widely publicised nationwide shortage of delivery drivers due to a combination of external factors. We have put in place a number of temporary mitigating actions and continue to work closely with our supply chain partner to resolve these challenges as quickly as possible.

If these challenges to trading do not materially improve in the second half of the financial year, the performance in the full year is likely to fall short of management expectations.

McColl’s trades from about 1200 convenience stores and newsagents across the UK, and also has a wholesale supply deal with Morrisons.

It has also reported a statutory loss before tax of £5.9m for the six months to 30 May, compared with a £1.3m loss in 2020.

And it is also announcing plans to raise £35m through a share placing, to“ accelerate the Company’s growth strategy” (as Sky News reported was on the cards over the weekend)

Updated

UK charity shops go online to plug Covid spending gap

Charity shops, the stalwart of many British high streets, are turning to selling online as they try to plug the large gap in funding caused by the Covid pandemic.

The number of items sold online by charities soared by 151% in the six months between February and July, according to data from Shopiago, which is behind a web-based platform that enables charities to enter e-commerce.

The majority of online charity shop sales during the period took place on eBay, where charities usually do not pay fees and can reach a wider audience.

Pet supplies, baby products and sports memorabilia were some of the top sellers online for charity shops during the spring and summer, according to Shopiago.

The British Red Cross, Sue Ryder, Barnardo’s and the British Heart Foundation were among those putting donations received in their stores up for sale online.

Thom Bryan, the head of product at Shopiago, says:

“Charities across the country are increasingly understanding that online can significantly support in-store revenue. In fact, online sales have provided a funding lifeline for many charities during the pandemic, when their high street shops have shut and fundraising events haven’t happened,”

Pressure grows on Vectura board to reject Philip Morris takeover bid

More than 20 health charities, public health experts and doctors have urged the board of the UK asthma inhaler maker Vectura to reject a £1bn takeover bid from tobacco company Philip Morris International.

PMI raised its bid for Vectura to 165p a share last weekend, valuing the firm at £1.02bn, and outbidding a rival offer by US private equity group Carlyle which had agreed a takeover of Vectura in late May.

The charities letter comes ahead of a 5pm deadline today when PMI has to announce whether it will revise its offer.

The Wiltshire-based drugs firm has said it intends to make an announcement soon afterwards on whether its board will recommend the offer to shareholders.

The heads of charities including the British Lung Foundation, Action on Smoking and Health (ASH) and the American Lung Association wrote:

“Vectura’s future commercial viability as a company dedicated to improving respiratory health would be seriously jeopardised should the PMI takeover proceed.”

Reddit value jumps to $10bn after new fundraising

Reddit, the news aggregation and discussion website whose Wall Street Bets crowd rocked the stock market earlier this year, has seen its own value jump sharply, to $10bn.

In a blog post today, Reddit reveals that it is raising $700m in a funding round, led by Fidelity Management and Research Company LLC, which values the group at over $10bn.

Reddit says:

We are optimistic and encouraged that not only are we resourced and capitalized to continue on our growth path, but also that our investors support our vision and want to deepen their stakes in our future.

Reddit also flags that it has just racked up its first quarter of $100m advertising revenue, and been investing in products including video and audio (it acquired Dubsmash, a short video platform, last December).

Updated

Full story: Global demand for oil slashed by ongoing Covid issues, says IEA

The world’s appetite for oil will be lower than expected this year as the ongoing spread of the coronavirus Delta variant continues to drag on global economies, according to the International Energy Agency (IEA).

The global watchdog has slashed its oil demand forecasts for the rest of this year and predicted that crude supplies may outstrip demand next year to leave a glut of unwanted oil in the market.

It said its forecasts for oil consumption in the second half of the year had been “appreciably downgraded” and would fall below its early forecasts by more than 500,000 barrels a day.

“Growth for the second half of 2021 has been downgraded more sharply, as new Covid-19 restrictions imposed in several major oil consuming countries, particularly in Asia, look set to reduce mobility and oil use,” the IEA said in its influential monthly oil report.

“We now estimate that demand fell in July as the rapid spread of the Covid-19 Delta variant undermined deliveries in China, Indonesia and other parts of Asia.”

Last month’s jump in US producer prices suggests inflation might be stickier than central bankers had hoped....

US producer prices jump as inflationary pressures stay high

US producers hiked their prices again last month, as manufacturers and service providers both passed on higher costs.

The Producer Price Index for final demand, which tracks what firms charge for their goods and services, jumped by 1.0% in July - matching June’s reading.

On an annual basis, the index jumped 7.8% for the 12 months to July - the highest since the survey began in November 2010.

Core producer prices (which strips out foods and energy) was hotter than forecast, rising by 6.2% per year.

The index for final demand services rose 1.1% in July, the largest one-month increase since data were first calculated in December 2009.

This was partly due to higher charges at car dealers, along with airline passenger services; hospital outpatient care; machinery and equipment wholesaling; traveler accommodation services; and securities brokerage, dealing, and investment advice.

Goods prices also rose, with the index for final demand goods jumping 0.6% in July.

Energy prices rose 2.6%, and the index for tobacco products increased 2.7%, while the index for final demand foods decreased 2.1%.

These producer prices could feed through to higher costs in the shops, where annual consumer price inflation remained at a 13-year high of 5.4% in July.

Updated

US jobless claims fall as labor market remains robust

Just in: The number of Americans filing new claims for unemployment benefit has dropped, in another sign that the US jobs market is robust as the economy rebounds.

There were 375,000 ‘initial claims’ for jobless support last week (on a seasonally-adjusted basis), a 12,000 drop on the 387,000 filed in the previous seven days.

That suggests firms held onto workers, with competition for labor intense and job openings at record levels (over 10 million in June).

If you strip out seasonal adjustments, then jobless claims fell by almost 5,200 to 320,517, indicating the labor market remained solid despite rising concerns over the Delta variant.

But, there were also 104,572 initial claims for Pandemic Unemployment Assistance - from self-employed people, ‘gig economy’ workers, and others who can’t claim unemployment insurance.

The number of ‘continuing claims’ (people receiving unemployment insurance for at least two weeks) has also dropped to 2.866m -- its lowest level since the start of the pandemic -- down by 114,000.

That’s the lowest level for insured unemployment since March 14, 2020 when it was 1,770,000

Back on today’s UK GDP report, the NIESR think tank have estimated that growth will slow this quarter.

They’ve predicted the economy will expand by 2.4% in July-September, a slowdown on the pacy 4.8% reported for April-June this morning.

NIESR say:

  • With catch-up potential still evident in consumer-facing services and the continued effects of reopening, we expect growth in July of 1 per cent, and 2.4 per cent for the third quarter of 2021 overall. This reflects our assumption that Covid-19 cases will continue to wane and remaining domestic restrictions imposed by governments and businesses will be lifted over the course of the third quarter.

  • With the level of GDP still below its pre-pandemic level by 4.4 per cent as of the second quarter and continued disparities at sector, household and region level, ensuring a sustainable and balanced recovery from the pandemic remains the biggest policy challenge.

The surge of UK takeover offers continued today, with London-listed Stock Spirits accepting a £767 million takeover bid from private equity player CVC Advisers.

Stock Spirits, which produces branded spirits and liqueurs such as vodka, brandy and rum in Central and Eastern Europe and Italy, is recommending CVC’s offer of 377p per share - a tasty 41% premium to last night’s closing price.

István Szőke, managing partner at CVC said:

“Stock Spirits is a high quality business with strong brands, established market positions and significant growth potential and we are delighted that our proposal has been recommended by the Stock Spirits Directors.

CVC Funds are a long-standing investor in Central and Eastern Europe and we look forward to working with Stock Spirits management team to help drive its continued development, both by supporting the existing strategy and by investing in inorganic growth opportunities.”

But.... the City hasn’t rung last orders on this deal. Shares in Stock Spirit have jumped 44% this morning to 386p, suggesting investors suspect another bidder could yet try to crash the party....

UK regulator: Facebook may have to sell Giphy over competition concerns

Tech news: The UK competition regulator has warned that Facebook could be forced to sell online image platform Giphy, due to concerns that the tie-up could damage social media choice and the display advertising market.

In 2020, Facebook paid $400m for Giphy, whose database of short GIF video clips and animations is very popular with users on platforms such as Snapchat, TikTok and Twitter.

Following an investigation, the CMA has provisionally found Facebook’s merger with Giphy will harm competition between social media platforms and remove a potential challenger in the display advertising market.

The CMA is concerned that Facebook could deny other platforms access to Giphy’s GIFs, or require Giphy customers, such as TikTok, Twitter and Snapchat, to provide more user data in order to access Giphy GIFs.

Such actions could increase Facebook’s market power, which is “already significant”, it adds.

A final ruling is due in October. If the CMA competition concerns are ultimately confirmed, it could require Facebook to unwind the deal and sell off Giphy in its entirety, it says.

It’s a rare example of an overseas regulator trying to unwind a Big Tech deal, points out the FT.

Stuart McIntosh, chair of the independent inquiry group carrying out the phase 2 investigation, said:

“Millions of people share GIFs every day with friends, family and colleagues, and this number continues to grow. Giphy’s takeover could see Facebook withdrawing GIFs from competing platforms or requiring more user data in order to access them. It also removes a potential challenger to Facebook in the £5.5 billion display advertising market. None of this would be good news for customers.

“While our investigation has shown serious competition concerns, these are provisional. We will now consult on our findings before completing our review. Should we conclude that the merger is detrimental to the market and social media users, we will take the necessary actions to make sure people are protected.”

Back in the UK, the battle for qualified workers continues, with the owner of Currys PC World and Carphone Warehouse offering a £1,500 retention bonus to its lorry drivers and the same cash incentive to new recruits.

Dixons Carphone is also offering staff who work elsewhere in the business who refer a friend for a driver vacancy a £1,000 reward and promising £1,500 to those willing to retrain to drive lorries.

In a further measure, the company will meet the cost of training and tests to qualify for a class C1 licence, which enables the driving of 7.5-tonne trucks, to anyone over the age of 21 who has held their UK category B driving licence for more than a year.

More here:

Eurozone industrial production dips

Factories across the eurozone had a lacklustre June, new data shows, as supply chain problems continued to hit manufacturing.

Eurozone industrial output fell by 0.3% during the month, after a 1.1% slide in May, data from eurostat shows.

Production of heavy-duty machinery was worst hit, with capital goods production down 1.5% -- indicating that shortages of key parts continue to hamper factories. Energy output dipped by 0.6%.

On the upside, production of durable consumer goods and intermediate goods both rose by 0.1% and non-durable consumer goods by 1.6%.

Ireland (-4.4%) suffered the worst drop in industrial output in June, followed by Portugal (-2.6%) and Denmark (-2.3%), while the strongest growth was seen in Malta (+5.2%), the Netherlands (+3.3%) and Estonia (+3.2%) .

Oliver Gatland, economist at the CEBR, says:

“The ongoing supply chain disruptions in the eurozone cast a shadow over a successful consumer recovery. Improved consumer confidence amid the easing of lockdown restrictions and a shortage of many key commodities is causing demand to outstrip supply, which may add to inflationary pressures in the eurozone.

In light of the continued disruption to manufacturers, consumers are likely to drive growth in the currency union. Cebr forecasts GDP growth of 4.9% across 2021 as a whole.”

[Reminder, UK industrial production fell by 0.7% in June, mainly due to oil field maintenance work].

In other energy news, the UK government’s plan to replace fossil gas with “blue” hydrogen to help meet its climate targets could backfire, after US academics found that it may lead to more emissions than using gas.

In some cases blue hydrogen, which is made from fossil gas, could be up to 20% worse for the climate than using gas in homes and heavy industry, owing to the emissions that escape when gas is extracted from the ground and split to produce hydrogen.

The process leaves a byproduct of carbon dioxide and methane, which fossil fuel companies plan to trap using carbon capture technology.

However, even the most advanced schemes cannot capture all the emissions, leaving some to enter the atmosphere and contribute to global heating.

Professors from Cornell and Stanford universities calculated that these “fugitive” emissions from producing hydrogen could eclipse those associated with extracting and burning gas when multiplied by the amount of gas required to make an equivalent amount of energy from hydrogen.

IEA: oil demand hit by rising Delta cases

The spread of the Delta variant of Covid-19 will hit oil demand for the rest of the year, the International Energy Agency warned this morning.

The IEA says oil demand “abruptly reversed course in July” after surging in June, as rising infections in Asia-Pacific regions forced governments to impose new restrictions.

Demand is expected to rise slower than previously expected through the rest of this year.

In its monthly outlook, the IEA says it has downgraded its forecast for oil demand in the second half of 2021 “as new Covid-19 restrictions imposed in several major oil consuming countries, particularly in Asia, look set to reduce mobility and oil use”.

Global oil demand surged by 3.8 mb/d [barrels per day] month-on-month in June, led by increased mobility in North America and Europe.

However, demand growth abruptly reversed course in July and the outlook for the remainder of 2021 has been downgraded due to the worsening progression of the pandemic and revisions to historical data.

So, although June’s demand was much stronger than first estimated, the IEA has lowered its forecast for overall demand in 2021 by 100,000 barrels per day, to 5.3 mb/d.

The IEA also flags that Delta has knocked oil prices back from their recent highs (levels last seen in 2018):

The 2Q21 crude price rally lost steam in July on fears that new Covid-19 Delta cases and weaker economic indicators could slow the oil demand recovery just as more supply hit the market. Despite big swings, North Sea Dated still rose $2.03/bbl to $74.99/bbl but fell to $70.73/bbl in early August

The IEA also predicts that the recent supply increases agreed by the Opec+ group will help plug the deficit in supplies, saying:

The scale could tilt back to surplus in 2022 if OPEC+ continues to undo its cuts and producers not taking part in the deal ramp up in response to higher prices....

OPEC+ can still pause, continue or even reverse its curbs as required by the market and it looks unlikely that the unwinding of cuts will continue on a linear trajectory in 2022.

Yesterday, the White House urged Opec+ to pump more oil to bring down gasoline prices, warning that tight supplies were endangering the recovery.

The travel company Tui Group has cut back its summer schedule amid the continued impact of British coronavirus restrictions, despite receiving 1.5m bookings for summer holidays since early May.

The world’s largest tourism business said on Thursday that it had returned to generating positive cashflow for the first time in the pandemic thanks to an influx of customer deposits, in a statement to the stock market. It brought in €320m (£270m) in cash between April and June.

However, Tui will run flights at only 60% of its 2019 level during the July-to-October quarter, a reduction from the 75% it had planned in May.

Fritz Joussen, the chief executive, said the cuts to planned flight numbers were mainly down to customer uncertainty in the UK, where the government had made “sometimes too rapid” changes to which countries are open for travel.

More here:

We also have more up-to-date info on the UK economy - showing that the number of firms suffering falling turnover has dropped, and that fewer workers are on furlough.

There are also more flights at UK airports, following the easing of travel restrictions, but the number of online job adverts has fallen.

That’s according to the ONS’s latest healthchecks on the UK economy:

The latest trade data shows that UK exports to the European Union continued to pick up.

Exports of goods to the EU, excluding precious metals, were above Brexit levels in May and June 2021, the ONS says, after plunging at the start of 2021.

As economies emerged from lockdown, UK goods exports to the EU rose £1.2bn (9.1%) to £14.1bn in May 2021, followed by a further £200m (1.2%) to £14.3bn in June 2021.

Exports to non-EU nations dropped by £800m in June, though, meaning an overall £600m drop in exports and a wider trade deficit.

UK imports swelled by £1bn in June, with an extra £500m of goods from both EU (notably cars) and non EU counties (led by mechanical machinery).

Overall, the UK’s trade deficit widened by £3.6bn to £5.2bn in the second quarter of 2021, with imports up £11.5bn to £150.5bn and exports increasing by £7.9bn to £145.3bn.

Kallum Pickering of Berenberg says UK trade ‘continued to disappoint’, with the service sector struggling:

The disappointment could be down to persisting travel restrictions which impede trade in services.

The underlying data show that goods exports rose by 9.6% qoq whereas services dropped by 4.7%. The pattern was similar in imports, with goods rising by 10.0% qoq and services declining by 3.8%.

UK growth fastest in G7 in Q2, but recovery 'still lagging'....

How does the UK’s economic performance stack up against major rivals?

As Rishi Sunak pointed out this morning, the UK has recorded the fastest quarterly growth among the G7 so far in April-June.

  • UK: grew by 4.8% in Q2, after shrinking 1.6% in Q1
  • US: grew by 1.6% in Q2, and grew by 1.5% in Q1
  • Italy: grew by 2.7% in Q2, after 0.2% growth in Q1
  • Germany: grew by 1.5% in Q2, after shrinking 1.8% in Q1
  • France: grew by 0.9% in Q2, after no growth in Q1
  • Japan: No Q2 data yet, after shrinking 1% in Q1
  • Canada: No Q2 data yet, after growing 1.4% in Q1

Economists predict Japan only grew modestly in Q2, with Canada expected to have expanded by around 0.6% q/q.

While the UK’s 4.8% quarterly growth is impressive in historical terms... it reflects a bounceback from Q1’s shutdown levels [the deeper the plunge, the higher the recovery...].

And the varying pace of the pandemic, with rising waves of Covid-19 causing lockdowns at different times across the globe, makes it hard to assess exactly how nations are faring in the most severe health crisis in generations.

The bigger picture is that in Q2, the UK economy was still 4.4% smaller than in October-December 2019 (just before the pandemic began) - putting the economy further from pre-Covid levels than many rivals. The US, for example, surpassed its pre-pandemic peak in the last quarter.

But, there’s a proviso: international comparisons are tricky, as statistics bodies don’t measure activity in, say, health and education in quite the same way.

Sam Tombs of Pantheon Economics, and Geoff Tilly of the TUC have helpfully pulled together the data:

Full story: UK economy grows for a fifth month as diners rush to cafes and bars

Britain’s economy grew for a fifth month in June as the reopening of indoor hospitality and visits by patients to their GPs helped boost national output by 1%, official data has shown.

Despite the government’s decision to delay the full lifting of restriction by four weeks to 19 July, the Office for National Statistics said growth in June was almost twice as rapid as the 0.6% in May.

Gross domestic product remained 2.2% below the level reached before the Covid-19 pandemic in February 2020, and some analysts said they expected the pace of recovery to have slowed in July amid rising infection rates.

Growth in June was the result of a 1.5% expansion of the service sector, helped by a rise of just over 10% for restaurants, cafes and bars. Services account for about 80% of GDP.

The ONS said there had also been a 4.5% increase in health services – which accounted for half the monthly rise in GDP. Samuel Tombs, a UK economist at Pantheon Macro, said he expected GDP to increase by just 0.2% in July.

Data for the second quarter of 2020 showed the economy was 4.8% bigger than it was between January and March, when the economy was constrained by curbs on activity and GDP contracted by 1.6%.

Here’s the full story:

Although the economy is recovering, unions fear that there will be more job losses if the government ends its wage subsidy scheme this autumn, as planned.

The TUC is urging ministers to create a permanent furlough scheme, so that firms can temporarily put staff on short-time when needed.

TUC General Secretary Frances O’Grady said:

“The economy is still fragile, with nearly two million people still on furlough.

“A premature end to furlough will needlessly cost jobs and harm our economic recovery.

“The chancellor must extend the furlough scheme for as long as needed to protect jobs and keep the recovery moving.”

Here’s the full story:

James Sproule, Chief Economist of Handelsbanken in the UK, has plucked out some more key points from today’s GDP report:

“Accommodation and food service activities increased by 87.8% in the second quarter, while wholesale and retail trade increased by 12.8%, in response to the re-opening of indoor hospitality, Euro 2020 and the reopening of non-essential retail. The challenge for many businesses is going to be finding the people to deliver the services.

“Accommodation will be receiving a further boost in the coming months as international travel remains harder than it was pre-pandemic and with many people opting to “staycation” in the UK this summer.

“Education also received a big boost (+27.1%) as school reopened, albeit relatively briefly before the summer holidays.

“Construction output increased by 3.3% in the second quarter, reflecting a rise in new work (3.7%), particularly infrastructure, and repair and maintenance (with growth of 1.7%), although some businesses reported limited availability of certain construction products, most notably timber, steel, cement and tiles.

“We are now 4.4% below the level of GDP seen at the end of 2019 and given these rates of growth, it is likely that the UK will reach the end of 2019 level of GDP in the first quarter of 2022.”

The unexpectedly strong 1.0% growth in June was a welcome surprise, suggesting that the recovery has maintained more momentum at the end of Q2 than expected, says Ruth Gregory of Capital Economics.

The upside surprise came from services output, which jumped by 1.5% m/m (consensus 0.9% m/m), leaving it just 2.1% below its pre-crisis level.

Healthcare contributed the most to services output, but food and beverage service activities also rose by 10.1% m/m in June. Meanwhile, the 0.2% m/m gain in manufacturing, left output in that sector 2.3% below its pre-crisis level. Unfortunately, there was little progress elsewhere in June. Industrial production fell by back by 0.7% m/m as planned closures of oil field production sites once again hit activity.

The 1.3% monthly drop in construction output may show that shortages of materials and labour are restraining building activity, she adds.

Updated

Business investment still below Covid levels, but household spending surged

Today’s GDP report also shows that company investment picked up a little in April-June, but remains sharply below pre-crisis levels.

Business investment rose by 2.4% in Q2, which left it over 15% below its levels in Q4 2019.

Business investment is a key driver in future growth, and also reflects economic uncertainty (bosses are reluctant to sign off new projects when they’re anxious about the future).

In contrast, household expenditure jumped by 7.3% in April-June, as people took advantage of the reopening of bars, restaurants, cinemas, theme parks, concert halls and holiday accommodation during the quarter.

Tom Pugh, UK economist at audit, tax and consulting firm RSM, explains:

Consumers rushed back to newly reopened shops, pubs and restaurants in Q2, driving consumer spending higher by 7.3 per cent q/q and the Government’s continued support for the economy meant that government spending rose by 6.1 per cent q/q.

However, business investment only rose by a relatively meagre 2.4 per cent q/q.

‘Businesses may have been deterred from investing in Q2 by the very uncertain outlook, but lacklustre business investment is a key indicator of how much long-term economic damage there will be from the pandemic, so we will be watching this closely for any signs of permanently lower investment.

Updated

Here’s a handy chart showing how the UK recovery sped up in June after slowing in May.

It also shows how the dominant services sector took a big hit in January when the most recent lockdown was imposed, and then rebounced as restrictions were eased in the spring.

Updated

Sunak: economy is bouncing back

Chancellor of the Exchequer, Rishi Sunak, says the economy is ‘on the mend’ after returning to growth in the second quarter of this year, with a 4.8% rise in GDP.

“Today’s figures show that our economy is on the mend showing strong signs of recovery, thanks to our Plan for Jobs and successful vaccine programme.

“I know there are still challenges to overcome, but I feel confident in the strength of the UK economy and the resilience of the British people.

“With the fastest quarterly growth rate among the G7 economies we have exceeded expectations, and I’m pleased to see the UK bouncing back.”

ONS: strong rebound in June

Jonathan Athow, deputy national statistician, says the UK “continued to rebound strongly” in June.

GP visits, advertising and hospitality drove growth in June

Health, advertising, and restaurants and bars all helped drive growth in June.

Health contributed strongly to GDP, because visits to local doctors increased in June compared with recent months, the ONS says.

NHS Test and Trace services and vaccine schemes across the UK also continued to contribute positively to overall output levels in health, it adds.

Advertising also had a strong month -- the ‘advertising and market research’ subsector grew by 14.7%, suggesting that companies are looking to win business and grow.

And ‘food and beverage services’ grew by 10.1% in June 2021, benefitting from the first full month of indoor dining for restaurants, cafés and pubs since restrictions were eased on 17 May 2021.

The ONS adds:

Continued strong growth means that the industry is now only 1.5% below its pre-pandemic level (February 2020), and 9.0% above its August 2020 peak when the Eat Out to Help Out Scheme boosted consumer demand for bars and restaurants.

Updated

Services led recovery in June, but construction declined

The UK’s service sector led the recovery in June, expanding by 1.5%, as the return of indoor dining and the reopening of leisure venues in May boosted growth.

But manufacturing grew by a modest 0.2% during the month, and construction output shrank by 1.3%.

This means all sectors of the economy are smaller than before the pandemic level (as construction output has fallen back below its February 2020 level).

Updated

UK economy grew 1.0% in June

In June alone, the UK economy grew by 1.0%, as the reopening of hospitality and leisure venues spurred growth....and more people visited their doctors again.

This is the fifth month of growth in a row, since the economy fell back in January’s lockdowns, and is stronger than expected.

Here’s the key points:

  • Services continued to be the main contributor to GDP’s recovery in June 2021, growing by 1.5% in June 2021 following a revised 0.7% growth in May 2021.
  • Health activities contributed the most to services output as visits to GPs increased in June 2021, while hospitality benefitted from its first full month of indoor dining since coronavirus (COVID-19) restrictions were eased on 17 May.
  • Food and beverage services activities was again the main contributor to the growth in consumer-facing services, growing by 10.1% in June 2021.
  • Production output fell by 0.7% in June 2021, as planned temporary closures for maintenance of oil field production sites once again hit output.

The ONS adds that GDP in June was 2.2% below its pre-pandemic level in February 2020, as the economy continues to recover.

But... May’s growth was weaker than thought; it’s been revised down to just +0.6% (from +0.8%), following 2.2% growth in April (revised up).

Updated

UK economy grew by 4.8% in Q2

The UK economy returned to growth in the second quarter of the year, expanding by 4.8%, as the lockdown measures introduced to fight the Covid-19 pandemic were relaxed.

The Office for National Statistics reports that in April-June:

  • There have been increases in services, production and construction output over the quarter.
  • In output terms, the largest contributors to this increase were from wholesale and retail trade, accommodation and food service activities, and education.

This leaves the economy still 4.4% below its pre-coronavirus pandemic levels, in the fourth quarter of 2019.

More to follow....

Updated

As we wait for the GDP report... here’s Adam Cole of RBC Capital Markets, who reckons the UK’s post-pandemic recovery has already peaked.

After m/m growth of 2.4% in March and 2.0% in April, there was a marked slowdown in GDP growth in May to 0.8%, which suggested that the initial pace of the recovery was coming off quickly.

With the gains from what we would describe as the ‘low-hanging fruit’ of the recovery (the initial gain generated just by opening the sectors of the economy that had been shuttered) now largely exhausted, we would expect the pace of growth to moderate in coming months.

Cole adds that rising absenteeism (due to the pandemic) and the withdrawal of fiscal support pose a headwind to growth over the summer months.

Introduction: UK Q2 GDP report will show pace of recovery

Good morning, and welcome to our rolling coverage of the world economy, the financial markets, the eurozone and business.

Today we discover how quickly the UK economy bounced back from its contraction at the start of the year, as lockdowns measures were eased.

The UK GDP report for the second quarter of 2021 will be released at 7am, and is expected to show a return to growth after contracting in Q1.

Economists predict the UK economy expanded by 4.8% in April-June compared with the previous quarter, more than reversing the 1.6% decline in January-March during the winter lockdowns.

We also get data for June. GDP is forecast to have risen by 0.8% in June alone, matching May’s reading -- which was a slowdown from April’s 2.0%.

UK GDP

The data won’t capture the impact of recent events such as the ‘pingdemic’, of course, or the final easing of restrictions in England in July.

But it will show how the recovery is progressing -- and whether its foundations look solid.

Michael Hewson of CMC Markets explains:

In the months after March, we’ve seen strong PMIs of over 60 across the board for manufacturing, construction, and services for all of the second quarter.

Retail sales growth has also been decent, helped by falling unemployment as businesses reopen, and while rising prices have been a headwind, the comparatives from last year will also add a boost.

Private consumption is expected to make a significant contribution to the headline number, of 5.5%, while inventory restocking could also add a tailwind, as all the lost output from Q1 gets dragged into the Q2 numbers.

More importantly we will also want to see a big rebound in business investment after the -10.7% decline in Q1. These numbers could well be a slow burn given the stop start nature of the economic reopening but a rebound of 6%, would be a start, with the hope that it carries on into Q3.

The agenda

  • 7am BST: UK GDP report for Q2 2021, and for June
  • 7am BST: UK trade report for June
  • 10am BST: Eurozone factory production data for June
  • 1.30pm BST: US weekly jobless figures
  • 1.30pm BST: US producer prices report for June
 

Leave a Comment

Required fields are marked *

*

*