And finally, here’s our news story on today’s market moves.
After wild volatility earlier, GameStop shares are looking more stable.
But they’re still down over 50% today, currently trading around $104, in a blow to retail traders who bought the stock at its highs last week.
Between the gap and additional losses, GameStop ($GME) is down 50% from Monday's close. Overall, from Thursday's record intraday high, we are down over 75%. Volume is also fading, which may show appetite to keep the stock up may be waning pic.twitter.com/vvAXLpGEII
— John Kicklighter (@JohnKicklighter) February 2, 2021
The GameStop drop followed a large reduction in short interest on the stock, which measures how many of the company’s shares have been borrowed to sell. Many had pointed to that previously high short interest, and the fact that hedge funds and others betting against the video game retailer had been squeezed, as a reason GameStop’s shares had soared.
The drop may also result in significant loses for some of the individual investors who had ridden the positive stock market suggestions posted on WallStreetBets, which has soared in popularity in the past week to 8 million members. GameStop’s shares hit an all-time high of $483 on Thursday.
Updated
Senator Warren seeks answers over Robinhood's GameStop trading curbs
Senator Elizabeth Warren has written to Vladimir Tenev, the CEO of Robinhood, asking why his service restricted trading in shares such as GameStop last week.
Senator Warren says:
In addition to putting customers’ finances at risk, Robinhood’s actions revealed a new set of questions about its relationship with large hedge funds and other financial institutions, and follows past criticisms of Robinhood’s insufficient investor protections.
Robinhood has a responsibility to treat its investors honestly and fairly, and provide them with access to the market under a transparent and consistent set of rules. It is deeply troubling that the company may not be doing so.
Last week, Robinhood blamed the increased deposit requirements from its clearinghouse for the curbs.
Senator Warren, though, is concerned about the firm’s links with Citadel Securities, the electronic-trading firm owned by hedge-fund billionaire Ken Griffin, which executes Robinhood’s trades.
That link has put Citadel in the spotlight, as the firm bailed out Melvyn Capital Management after its short-selling bets against GameStop went sour.
Senator Warren asks:
Did Robinhood engage in any discussions with any Citadel businesses or affiliates prior to Robinhood reaching its decision to institute restrictions on trading for GameStop and other stocks?
The letter is online here.
I have questions for @RobinhoodApp on why they restricted GameStop trades and changed the rules on investors with no warning, their cozy relationship with hedge funds, and their forced arbitration clauses that block users from suing them. We need answers. https://t.co/z7CizGPM5y
— Elizabeth Warren (@SenWarren) February 2, 2021
Elizabeth Warren writes to Robinhood's CEO. Her main concerns:
— Sonali Basak (@sonalibasak) February 2, 2021
* Details on why trading was curbed
* The ability for customers to pursue claims outside of forced arbitrations
* Transparency regarding its relationship to Citadel Securities https://t.co/UIFKdx4GUm
Here’s our news story about today’s eurozone GDP figures, and the rising fears of a double-dip recession:
Back in London, the FTSE 100 index of blue-chip shares has closed 50 points higher at 6516 points, up 0.8%.
That’s its second day of gains, as stocks recover from last week’s selloff during the short squeeze frenzy (when volatility spiked amid worries that hedge funds would sell assets to cover their losses on shorted stocks).
Travel and hospitality companies rallied, with hotel groups Intercontinental and Whitbread both gaining 5.8%, and airline group IAG up 5%.
Oil giant BP fell 4.5%, though, after posting its first annual loss in a decade after a “brutal” year in which the Covid-19 pandemic took its toll on the global oil industry.
Silver miner Fresnillo was the top faller, down 4.8%, due to the fall in the silver price today.
Silver is currently down 8.8% at $26.43 per ounce, having briefly hit $30 yesterday in a rally attributed to retail investors (although many on WallStreetBets insist they weren’t involved).
Today’s moves suggest that the ‘short squeeze frenzy’ that gripped investors last week is cooling, explains David Madden of CMC Markets.
Gamestop, Blackberry, AMC Entertainment and Bed Bath & Beyond are nursing large losses today. The stock experienced massive rallies last week as they were caught up in the short squeeze frenzy that was carried out by a hoard of retail traders.
It seems the heat has come off the shares.
AMC shares are currently down 38% today, with BlackBerry off 21% and Bed Bath & Beyond down 14%.
GameStop shares are now recovering some ground, after Robinhood eased its restrictions on share purchases.
They’re now risen back up to $129, triggering another brief trading halt due to volatility. That still leaves from down around 40% today, though.
GAMESTOP BUYING SURGE, HALTED BY NYSE; AFTER ROBINHOOD SAYS RAISING TRADING LIMIT ON GAMESTOP SHARES TO 100 FROM 20
— First Squawk (@FirstSquawk) February 2, 2021
GameStop off its session lows after dropping more than 60% this morning, rebounding after Robinhood rolled back some of its trading restrictions on the stock. $GME pic.twitter.com/gYk17aH6ll
— Trading Nation (@TradingNation) February 2, 2021
Robinhood raises limit on GameStop share purchases
Trading app Robinhood has relaxed its restrictions on buying GameStop shares.
It will now let customers buy up to 100, up from 20 (including shares already owned).
Back on Friday, customers were limited to just one share, having been temporarily restricted from buying any last Thursday.
That ban sparked anger from customers, and claims that Robinhood was trying to protect the hedge funds who had shorted GameStop - and were facing huge losses.
Robinhood, though, blamed demands for higher deposits from its clearinghouses due to stock volatility.
It has also lifted restrictions on other stocks popular with the Reddit trading community, including cinema chain AMC.
CNBC has more details:
Clients can now buy 1,250 shares of AMC Entertainment, up from the 350 earlier in the trading day.
Robinhood clients can now buy 3,000 shares of Express, up from the 1,000 share limit. Investors can buy up to 12,000 shares of Naked Brand Group up from the previous restrictions of 6,500. Nokia’s buying cap is the same at 2,000 shares.
Robinhood raises trading limits on restricted stocks, customers can buy 100 GameStop shares now $GMEhttps://t.co/bpYDx6jk4H
— Maggie Kate Fitzgerald (@mkmfitzgerald) February 2, 2021
GameStop shares are trading below $100 for the first time since last Tuesday.
GameStop shares closed at $325 on Friday night, at the end of an extremely volatile week (on Thursday alone, it traded as high as $482.95, and as low as $113.5).
The selloff is gathering pace, with GameStop shares now down nearly 60% today at around $90.
GameStop losses accelerate with stock falling 60%; AMC plummets 50% https://t.co/Js9zG8fWw7 pic.twitter.com/S7H8htMkZ8
— CNBC Now (@CNBCnow) February 2, 2021
GameStop shares slump in early trading
Shares in GameStop have tumbled in early trading, and are currently down around 49% at $114.
Trading in the videogame retailer were briefly halted at the open, due to high volatility, as it continues to fall away from last week’s highs.
GameStop plunges 40% at the open, AMC drops 35% https://t.co/3ZgeokPW1E pic.twitter.com/aWolq5glxq
— CNBC Now (@CNBCnow) February 2, 2021
Other heavily shorted stocks which surged last week, such as cinema chain AMC and headphone manufacturer Koss Corporation, are also falling in early trading.
*GAMESTOP SHARES HALTED AFTER DROPPING 42% AT OPEN$GME -42%, $AMC -38%, $KOSS -33%, $NAKD -33%, $EXPR -27% pic.twitter.com/AuqTfjP5Au
— Jared Blikre (@SPYJared) February 2, 2021
Wall Street has opened higher, with the Dow Jones industrial average gaining around 339 points, or 1.1%, to 30,551 points.
The technology-focused Nasdaq index is up 1.3%, as shares continue to recover from last week’s selloff.
Reuters says:
Wall Street’s main indexes opened higher on Tuesday, building on the previous session’s momentum, as investors anticipated strong results from Amazon and Google-parent Alphabet while also looking for signs of progress on a pandemic-relief package.
Here’s Bloomberg’s take on GameStop’s shares, as we wait for the US stock market to begin trading (at 9.30am in New York, or 2.30pm UK time).
GameStop’s retreat has coincided with a sharp reduction in short interest after bearish investors appeared to cover their positions. That has loosened a squeeze on the stock caused by day traders who used Reddit forums to tout and bid up out-of-favor stocks that also included movie-theater chain AMC Entertainment Holdings Inc. and American Airlines Group Inc.
“It looks like the unwind of the short squeeze, where prices will start to reflect economic reality again,” said Maarten Geerdink, head of European equities at NN Investment Partners.
Other stocks recently favored by the Reddit community are also rapidly losing air: AMC slid 25% in premarket trading and at $10 is more than 50% below last week’s intraday high. Express Inc. declined 18% and has lost about 70% of its value since peaking on Wednesday.
The declines come as short sellers reduce their interest, having sustained multi-billion dollar losses. The short interest in GameStop shares has tumbled to 39% of its freefloat, according to data from IHS Markit.
More here.
GameStop tumbles in premarket trading https://t.co/RtLAkzapSE pic.twitter.com/WsvnQsrHk7
— Bloomberg Markets (@markets) February 2, 2021
$GME GameStop now 70% below last Thursday's high. https://t.co/yPRYuYJc9B
— David Jones (@JonesTheMarkets) February 2, 2021
GameStop shares slump in pre-market trading
Shares in GameStop are slumping in pre-market trading, falling sharply below the highs seen during last week’s ‘short squeeze’ surge.
GameStop is currently down around 40% in US pre-market trading, at around $133.
They had already fallen 30% during Monday’s trading session to $225, having traded over $400 at one stage last Thursday.
GameStop shares fall another 40%, lose more than half their value in two days: @CNBC $GME pic.twitter.com/kU9P0VxHAJ
— Steve Burns (@SJosephBurns) February 2, 2021
$GME in freefall now. Stock plunging 40% https://t.co/dizqn5CQbK pic.twitter.com/3M6I6fHwH0
— Joe Weisenthal (@TheStalwart) February 2, 2021
Cinema chain AMC Entertainment Holdings, another company popular with the WallStreetBets group on Reddit, is also down 30% in pre-market trading.
The tumble in GameStop’s shares suggests that some of the hedge funds who had been caught in last week’s ‘short squeeze’ have now closed their short positions.
On Monday, analytics firm S3 Partners reported that the number of GameStop shares that were shorted had fallen by over half in a week, as short sellers covered their bets.
That would mean that fewer hedge funds who had shorted the stock would now be trying to buy back GameStop shares to cover their losses.
CNBC explains:
GameStop’s shares have traded wildly in recent weeks after retail traders on Reddit sparked a short squeeze in the stock, a phenomenon where traders who had bet against the stock are forced to buy it to limit their losses, pushing the price even higher.
Short interest in GameStop as a percentage of shares available for trading dropped to about 53% from over 110% a week ago, according to data from S3 Partners.
“Both fundamental and momentum short sellers have found opportunities and price exit points to trim their positions in the face of these losses as the GME short squeeze is in full force,” said Ihor Dusaniwsky, S3 managing director of predictive analytics.
And here’s Reuters take: Number of GameStop shares shorted falls by over half in week -S3 Partners
Yesterday, stock trading app Robinhood lifted its restrictions on buying GameStop shares, letting users buy up to 20.
Robinhood made the move after raising another $2.4bn from investors. That will help it meet demands for higher margin deposits by the clearing houses who handle its trades in shares and options, following last week’s stock volatility.
Updated
Pound hits nine-month high vs euro
The euro has fallen to a nine-month low against the pound today, as fears of a eurozone double-dip recession rise.
Sterling rose to €1.1365 this morning, for the first time since last May, as this morning’s GDP report showed the eurozone shrank by 0.7% in the last quarter of 2020, and will probably keep shrinking in the current quarter.
It means one euro is worth 88p.
The euro has also dropped to a seven-week low against the US dollar today.
Raffi Boyadjian, senior investment analyst at XM, says:
Persisting doubts about the EU’s ability to clean up its vaccine mess and the prospect of prolonged lockdowns continues to put a dampener on the currency.
Jeffrey Halley, senior market analyst at OANDA, agrees that fears of a double-dip recession are weighing on the euro:
The Euro continues to bear the brunt of Dollar strength, with fears of a double-dip recession caused by its poor vaccine rollouts and ham-fisted policy response to that problem.
With criticism of the EU’s vaccine strategy rising, commission president Ursula von der Leyen has claimed today the vaccination programme in the UK has enjoyed a head start through compromising on “safety and efficacy” safeguards.
My colleague Daniel Boffey explains:
The former German defence minister, who took command of the EU’s executive branch in 2019, said she had a responsibility to take time to ensure the success of the bloc’s mass vaccination programme.
In the face of heavy criticism, including from her predecessor, Jean-Claude Juncker, Von der Leyen said she was committed to her role and should be judged at the end of her term in 2024.
“Some countries started to vaccinate a little before Europe, it is true,” she said, asked about the UK. “But they resorted to emergency, 24-hour marketing authorisation procedures.
Just 2.84% of the EU’s adult population having received a jab against 14.41% in the UK as of Tuesday, Daniel adds. More here:
CEBR: Europe's slower vaccine rollout could mean slower recovery
The slow start to Europe’s Covid-19 vaccination programme could weigh on its recovery from the pandemic, says Sam Miley, economist at the Centre for Economics and Business Research.
Miley explains:
The downtick in economic output in Q4 reflects the widespread reimplementation of Covid-19 contain measures across the continent, though does mask varying degrees of restriction severity across member states.
This downward pressure on economic output looks set to continue in early 2021 due to the clampdown on new, more virulent strains of coronavirus, while subdued economic activity could continue for an even more protracted period in light of the eurozone’s relatively slower rollout of vaccinations.”
Miley adds:
Though mass vaccination should facilitate the phasing out of restriction measures, the fact that rollout is currently slower in the eurozone suggests that the economic benefits will be somewhat less pronounced than elsewhere. This is reflected in the most recent Cebr forecasts which, although pointing to an annual growth rate of 5.1% across both the eurozone and the UK in 2021, show considerable divergence from 2022 with the former set to grow by just 2.7% compared to 6.6% for the latter.
Indeed, the extent to which the eurozone could suffer from a prolonged period of subdued economic activity is further highlighted by our full year GDP forecasts, which suggest that output in the eurozone will not exceed the levels seen in 2019 until the mid-2020s.
Several more economists are warning that the eurozone is probably in a double-dip recession now - although it won’t be as sharp as last year’s downturn.
Christoph Weil, economist at Commerzbank, predicts that eurozone GDP will keep shrinking in the January-March quarter, following the 0.7% decline recorded in October-December.
“In the first quarter of 2021, the decline is likely to be somewhat steeper.
However, there will not be a slump like the one in the first half of 2020. Instead, a noticeable recovery is likely to set in again from the spring,”
Economist Julian Jessop thinks a double-dip recession (two quarters of negative growth) is ‘almost certain’.
First estimates show #GDP fell 0.5% q/q in Q4 2020 in the EU and by 0.7% in euro area.
— Julian Jessop (@julianHjessop) February 2, 2021
This is actually not as bad as feared, but makes it almost certain that the EU is in a double-dip recession.
UK data (12th Feb) should be better (c.+0.5%), partly due to timing of #lockdowns
"Decent, all things considered, but the EZ is now likely in a double-dip recession." @ClausVistesen on Eurozone Advance GDP, Q4 #PantheonMacro
— Pantheon Macro (@PantheonMacro) February 2, 2021
Here’s Joseph Little, Global Chief Strategist, HSBC Global Asset Management, on the 0.7% drop in eurozone GDP last quarter:
“The negative Q4 GDP print is confirmation of what investors already knew – a double dip recession in Europe at the end of 2020, with that weakness continuing through Q1.
The live question for investors is what the delays in vaccine distribution and virus trends means for the growth outlook as we go through the year. We think the picture should improve through the summer, and that facilitates a “catch-up” phase of growth for Europe in H2.”
Bert Colijn, economist at ING, predicts that the eurozone economy could shrink again this quarter, on top of the 0.7% contraction recorded in the last three months.
That would put the eurozone into another technical recession (two quarters of negative growth), having already suffered one in the first half of 2020.
But, Colijn also points out that the fall in GDP in October-December was less severe than in the first lockdown.
That’s because some eurozone industries kept running, other economies outside Europe were open, and UK firms were stockpiling before the Brexit transition period ended.
First of all, restrictive measures have been adapted and have become milder compared to the first wave. Think of countries like France and Spain, for example, where industry and construction have remained largely open over the course of the quarter. This has had a very positive effect on GDP, especially because demand for goods and construction has remained strong despite lockdowns in place. Mobility, the movement of people which was largely correlated to GDP growth in the first wave, was also stronger in the fourth quarter than during the first wave, which also supported economic activity.
What also helps is that the rest of the world is still open. Compared to the first wave, when supply chain problems and lockdowns globally caused a huge drop in external demand, the second wave is quite different. Outside of the eurozone, most economies have remained largely open and 4Q benefited from strong demand from countries like China, and from a stockpiling effect in the UK ahead of the end of the transition period. That has resulted in rather favourable monthly export figures and boosted industrial production.
But while manufacturing has limited the downturn, ongoing lockdowns mean it is “likely that another quarter of falling GDP will follow”, he adds.
The drop in eurozone GDP was mild in the fourth quarter. @Bertcolijn explains why https://t.co/ERxmdZCyoY
— ING Economics (@ING_Economics) February 2, 2021
Eurozone economy shrank 0.7% in Q4 amid pandemic
The eurozone economy shrank in the last quarter as the second wave of the Covid-19 pandemic dragged down growth across the region.
Eurozone GDP fell by 0.7% in October-December, a time when many governments introduced new restrictions and lockdowns to try to curb the virus. GDP fell by 0.5% in the wider European Union during the quarter.
Statistics body Eurostat also reports that the eurozone economy shrank by around 6.8% during 2020 as a whole, which highlights the economic damage suffered last year.
As these charts shows, the summer rebound fizzled out once the second wave of the pandemic hit.
But the decline in Q4 was less steep than earlier in the year (and better than expected) as restrictions weren’t as tight as in the first lockdown, and firms were better prepared.
Eurostat explains:
These declines, related to COVID-19 containment measures, follow a strong rebound in the third quarter of 2020 (+12.4% in the euro area and +11.5% in the EU) and the sharpest decreases since time series started in 1995 observed in the second quarter of 2020 (-11.7% in the euro area and -11.4% in the EU).
According to a first estimation of annual growth for 2020, based on seasonally and calendar adjusted quarterly data, GDP fell by 6.8% in the euro area and 6.4% in the EU.
#Eurozone GDP (Q4 - 1st estimate)
— Michael Brown (@MrMBrown) February 2, 2021
QoQ: -0.7% v -1.0% exp. (prev +12.5%)
YoY: -5.1% v -5.4% exp. (prev -4.3%)
Today’s report also shows that Austria suffered the sharpest quarterly contraction, with GDP down 4.3% in October-December, followed by Italy (-2.0%) and France (-1.3%).
Germany, though, managed a 0.1% rise in GDP during the last quarter, with Spain up 0.4%.
Euro area #GDP -0.7% in Q4 2020, -5.1% compared with Q4 2019: preliminary flash estimate from #Eurostat https://t.co/YahpEm6K5q pic.twitter.com/bw3UrJD3Bu
— EU_Eurostat (@EU_Eurostat) February 2, 2021
Updated
Silver price falls as surge losing steam
After surging to an eight-year high yesterday, the silver price has fallen by almost 5% this morning.
Silver has dropped back to $27.70 per ounce, having yesterday hit $30/oz for the first time since 2013.
Monday’s rally sparked talk that silver was the latest target of retail investors - although many on WallStreetBets insisted that they were not behind the move, with some blaming hedge funds (as we covered in this blog yesterday).
Carlo Alberto De Casa, chief analyst at ActivTrades, says the size of the silver market makes it much harder to influence than a single stock.
After the initial skyrocketing of the price, silver has since lost 5% with the price dropping back below $28. In this case, the fundamental drivers are holding – at least for the time being – against the irrationality of markets.
Of course, things could change, but the resistance level of $30 touched yesterday and last summer seems to represent a significant barrier for further rallies of the precious metal.
Today’s falls also follow a margin hike by the CME Group. Last night it raised the margins on Comex silver futures by 18%, as part of “the normal review of market volatility to ensure adequate collateral coverage.”
The move means that those who want to trade silver futures need to put up more collateral, which would curb speculative trading.
Vincent Tie, sales manager at Silver Bullion, explains (via Reuters):
“(Higher margins) will temper the buying frenzy and we could see prices drop as much as to $26 in the next two weeks. It’s also triggering some profit booking,”
Shares in BP have dropped 3% this morning after the oil giant reported its first quarterly loss in a decade, as the pandemic continued to hit demand for energy.
My colleague Jillian Ambrose explains:
BP has reported a loss of $5.69bn (£4.15bn) for last year after a collapse in global oil demand during the Covid-19 pandemic, compared with a profit of almost $10bn in 2019.
The company’s first full-year financial loss in a decade came after the industry was “hit hard” by the pandemic, which triggered a collapse in demand for transport fuels, and caused oil prices on the global market to tumble.
BP was forced to write off the value of its oil and gas assets by a total of $6.5bn last year as the industry slashed its expectations for oil prices over the long-term. It also cut its global workforce by 10,000 and reduced its shareholder dividend for the first time since the Deepwater Horizon disaster.
In the final quarter of a “challenging” year for BP it reported a modest underlying profit of $115m, which was well below analyst forecasts of a $360m profit and a fraction of the $2.5bn reported for the same months in 2019.
UK gambling firms ordered to slow down online slot machines
Online casinos will be forced to overhaul slot machine games to slow them down and remove features that cause players to lose track of how much they are spending.
In a series of curbs likely to reduce the industry’s £2.2bn a year revenue from online slot machines, the Gambling Commission has told UK companies to slow them down, with a gap of at least 2.5 seconds between spins.
They will also have to remove “auto-play” options, where players can set the slot machine to spin on its own multiple times. This can lead to gamblers not realising how much they are losing, the regulator said.
Slot machines will also be barred from playing positive-sounding noises or music when a player has actually lost money.
The feature is part of a phenomenon known as “losses disguised as wins”, which tricks players into thinking they have enjoyed a positive outcome when they have actually lost, enticing them to bet more.
Companies will also have to abolish features that give players the “illusion of control”, when in fact the spins are determined by a random outcome generator.
Firms will no longer be able to offer “reverse withdrawals”, in which a player opts to collect their winnings but then changes their mind and feeds the cash back into their account.
Operators also will have to clearly display to the player their total losses or wins and time played during any online slots session....
Stock markets open higher
European stock markets are rallying this morning, adding to Monday’s gains, and clawing back some of last week’s losses.
In the City, the FTSE 100 index is 38 points higher at 6505, up 0.6%, while the EU-wide Stoxx 600 has gained 1%.
Investors seem to have regained their confidence after last week’s wobble amid the GameStop short squeeze (as some hedge funds ‘derisked’ and closed positions).
Connor Campbell of SpreadEx says the markets are looking for president Joe Biden to push through his $1.9trn stimulus plan:
It does seems that investors have very quickly set aside the fears that tanked January’s gains during the final sessions of the month. This despite a lack of material change in 3 of the key areas – Covid-19, the progress of the US stimulus package, Reddit-led volatility – that caused such conniptions last week.
That’s a potential danger as the month progresses, though a swift and decisive move on the Covid-19 relief bill would keep any other fears at bay.
Over the weekend, ten Republican senators pitched a plan with a reported price tag of just $600bn - a lowball offer that could encourage the White House will seek to bypass them (by using the budget reconciliation tool to get a larger package approved).
Updated
Howard Archer, chief economic advisor to the EY ITEM Club, predicts house prices will fall this year.
The market will come under ‘mounting pressure in the near term’, Archer says, as the Covid-19 lockdown weighs on the economy. There may well still be a “significant rise in unemployment”, he adds, despite the furlough scheme being extended until April.
“The EY ITEM Club expects the housing market to come under increasing pressure through much of 2021, although support in the first quarter will likely come from buyers looking to take final advantage of the Stamp Duty threshold increase before it ends on 31 March. There are reports that the Chancellor does not intend to extend the raising of the Stamp Duty threshold in the 3rd March Budget.
“The EY ITEM Club suspects that house prices could be around 5% lower than now by the end of 2021.”
James Sproule, chief economist of Handelsbanken in the UK, argues that Rishi Sunak is unlikely to extend the stamp duty holiday beyond 31 March.
“The question for many people is: will the Stamp Duty holiday be extended beyond 31 March? While such a situation is not impossible, we judge it unlikely. The housing market, as indicated by these numbers, is not showing signs of being in trouble and the Chancellor’s focus will need to remain on the parts of the economy that are facing difficulty.
There is also real pressure to balance the government’s accounts, including widespread talk of tax rises. To effectively raise taxes to provide a boost to the housing market is unlikely to be a strategy the Chancellor will want to follow.
The dip in UK house prices last month could put more pressure on chancellor Rishi Sunak to extend the stamp duty holiday.
Yesterday, MPs held a virtual parliamentary debate on the issue, with many arguing that the tax break shouldn’t end on 31 March.
The Evening Standard has the details:
MPs across parties spoke on behalf of constituents who would not be able to afford their prospective home or complete their purchase if they missed the deadline. They supported calls for a tapering off the stamp duty holiday end date for buyers where transactions were already in process.
Elliot Colburn, Conservative MP for Carshalton and Wallington, cited research from Paragon which found two thirds of their customers in the mortgage pipeline had budgeted for the tax break, or else had a buyer somewhere in their chain who was dependent on their sale completing before the stamp duty holiday deadline.
Labour’s Catherine West was one of several voices who noted the wider economic benefits of a buoyant housing market and the stress and inconvenience to her constituents in Hornsey and Wood Green who were hoping to complete before the deadline.
However, she insisted any prolongation of the holiday should be targeted, quoting Welsh Labour’s figure that second home buyers had benefitted from £1.3 billion in tax cuts during the stamp duty holiday period.
More here: Stamp duty holiday extension: MPs call for later end date to avoid collapse in home sales
Guy Harrington, CEO of residential lender Glenhawk, reckons ‘cracks’ are now appearing in the UK housing market:
“Despite a third lockdown, pent up demand, changing attitudes towards urban living and the stampede to benefit from the stamp duty holiday continues to fuel transactions as well as price growth. However, cracks are finally beginning to appear as the economic backdrop continues to deteriorate and stamp duty help draws to a close.
The government must now do what is necessary to avoid a double dip recession once the job support scheme ends. An environment of new austerity measures and falling household income would likely quickly reverse the house price gains we have seen over the past year, as mortgage providers could be less flexible leading to transactions drying up.”
Introduction: UK house prices dip ahead of end of stamp duty holiday
Good morning, and welcome to our rolling coverage of the world economy, the financial markets, the eurozone and business.
After a strong run, the UK housing market may be running out of steam - as a tax break introduced to stimulate demand nears its end.
House prices fell in January for the first time since last June, the latest figures from mortgage lender Nationwide show.
The average price dropped by 0.3% month-on-month, which is a sharp reverse on the 0.9% monthly growth seen in December.
It pulls the annual rate of house price growth down to 6.4% in January, down from 7.3% in December.
The average property now costs £229,748, Nationwide reports, down from £230,920.
House prices have surged in recent months, amid a scramble for larger or more rural homes after the Covid-19 pandemic forced many families to work and study from home.
The rally was also sparked by the government’s stamp duty holiday, announced last summer. It allows buyers of homes of a value up to £500,000 in England and Northern Ireland to pay no stamp duty, or a reduced rate for homes above that.
In Scotland and Wales, the first £250,000 of the transaction value is exempt from stamp duty.
That holiday is currently due to end on 31 March, meaning time is running out to secure a sale and complete it.
Robert Gardner, Nationwide’s chief economist, explains:
“To a large extent, the slowdown probably reflects a tapering of demand ahead of the end of the stamp duty holiday, which prompted many people considering a house move to bring forward their purchase.
While the stamp duty holiday is not due to expire until the end of March, activity would be expected to weaken well before that, given that the purchase process typically takes several months (note that our house price index is based on data at the mortgage approval stage).
Gardner also warns that the market could slow in the coming months, especially if unemployment keeps rising:
“Looking ahead, shifts in housing preferences are likely to continue to provide some support for the market. However, if the stamp duty holiday ends as scheduled, and labour market conditions continue to weaken as most analysts expect, housing market activity is likely to slow, perhaps sharply, in the coming months.
Also coming up today, we find out how the eurozone economy fared in the last three months of 2020, as the second wave of the Covid-19 pandemic hit the region.
Investors will also be watching silver - which hit an eight-year high yesterday before dropping back - and GameStop, whose shares tumbled 30% yesterday.
The agenda
- 9am GMT: Flash estimate of Italian GDP in Q4 2020
- 10am GMT: Flash estimate of eurozone GDP in Q4 2020
Updated