Behind the charts, graphs and numbers which make up economic data are real stories of human misery.

And that includes the sad news that more than 200 Oasis and Warehouse head office staff have been left struggling for cash after being laid off a fortnight before pay day.

The design, buying and merchandising staff who had not been furloughed under the government job protection scheme and had been working on producing the two brands’ fashion collections for next year, have been told they will have to apply for government assistance to cover back pay owed as well as holiday pay and redundancy pay outs.

Oasis and Warehouse last week called in administrators from advisory firm Deloitte after owner Kaupthing, the Iceland bank, failed to find a buyer for the retail businesses.
More than 1,800 retail store staff have been put on furlough under the government’s job protection scheme but only about 40 head office staff remain in post.

One former Warehouse staff member is worried about how she would pay her mortgage. She says:

“I felt complete shock. We had no idea the company was in financial difficulties. We had hoped we might be furloughed. We’re all in a tricky situation.

There are no jobs for us to go to and some people were on maternity leave or pregnant so they are really stuck.”

There’s time for some late pessimism too.

Barclays has slashed its economic forecasts for the UK. It now expects the economy to shrink by 8% this year, which would be the worst recession in decades.

More alarmingly, its economists reckon growth will only recover slowly, and that unemployment will soon hit 9% (from just 4% in the last quarter).

A longer lock down, policy frictions and a less favourable global backdrop lead us to cut our forecasts for the UK. We now expect 2020 GDP to drop 8% and remain 4% below pre-virus trend by end 2021. We see unemployment peaking near 9% in Q2 20, the budget deficit ballooning to 10.8% of GDP and the debt-GDP ratio above 100%.

Some late UK news... high street chain JD Sports has decided not to pay a final dividend to shareholders this year, due to the Covid-19 crisis.

Its board and senior management team are all taking voluntary pay cuts of at least 25% “for the current period of disruption”, with executive chairman Peter Cowgill giving up 75%. More here.

Today’s fall means that US consumer confidence is now around its lowest since the end of 2011:

Alarmingly, the slump in US durable goods orders last month is worse than during the 2008-09 crisis.

Wall Street is shrugging off today’s hotpot of dire economic data.

The Dow Jones industrial average has gained 0.4% in early trading, up 102 points at 23,617.

This is the worst slump in US durable goods orders since 2014.

It’s mainly due to a huge drop in demand for civilian aircraft.

According to Bloomberg, civilian aircraft maker recorded negative orders of $16.3 billion, a drop of around 300%.

That, I think, means the number of cancelled orders far exceeded any new orders, as the airline industry grounds its fleets.

Bloomberg reckons Germany’s economic gloom will continue for some time, judging by today’s tumble in confidence:

The Ifo Institute’s index dropped to a record-low 74.3, well below economists’ median estimate.

Reduced spending power from millions of furloughed workers and the persistence of the coronavirus pandemic in some of Germany’s largest trading destinations are set to weigh on business for some time to come -- with a gauge for expectations down more than 10 points.

As lunch approaches, Europe’s stock markets are still slightly lower today.

• FTSE 100: down 33 points or 0.5% at 5793
• German DAX: down 44 points or 0.4% at 10,469
• French CAC: down 15 points or 0.35% at 4,435

As things stand, through, the FTSE 100 is on track to end the week broadly unchanged. It fell sharply on Tuesday after oil prices buckled, but recovered on Wednesday.

This welcome drop in volatility shows that investors have stopped panicking about the pandemic - but are now trying to assess how long it will last, and how quickly companiy earnings will recover.

Russ Mould, investment director at AJ Bell, says:

The FTSE 100 is down 23.8% so far this year. Across the index, 41 stocks have managed to outperform the market, eight of whom have actually delivered positive returns this year. These include precious metals miner Polymetal up 42.7% and grocery expert Ocado up 26.5%.

“Investing in gold, food, water, medicine and household goods seem to have been the winning trades through this crisis,”

McDonald is helping the UK’s drive to get essential workers tested for Covid-19.

The fast food chain has handed over use of its drive thru restaurant in Meridian Business Park in Leicester for use by DHU Healthcare to test NHS workers for the virus.

McDonalds stores have been closed for the last month, under the lockdown, so it’s nice to see one being put to good use.

The testing system certainly needs help. Earlier today the Department of Health and Social Care apologised after the website set up for key workers to book Covid-19 tests stopped accepting applications due to high demand.

Here’s a handy chart showing how Germany business confidence took an almighty tumble today:

One German government source has told Reuters that they expect GDP to shrink by 6% during 2020 - which would be the worst since the second world war.

Reuters explains:

The economy will rebound from the coronavirus pandemic in 2021 with growth of more than 5%, the source added.

Spiegel magazine reported the figures first, citing an Economy Ministry forecast to be unveiled next week.

An Economy Ministry spokeswoman said there were no final growth forecasts yet.

London Gatwick says it does not expect passengers to come back to pre-Covid levels for another four years.

Chief executive Stewart Wingate said the airport, which mainly serves leisure routes for holidaymakers in the south east, still had “confidence in the medium and longer term” and could survive even if flights did not resume this summer.

Around 2,000 staff have been furloughed and more than 500 employees have been let go altogether. The airport has secured a £300m loan as it burns through cash at the rate of £25-30m a month. Some 600 staff remain at work.

Wingate said the predictions were modelled on the aftermath of the financial crisis and Sars, adding:

“We’re determined to keep Gatwick open so as and when airlines can fly again we can immediately ramp up.”

At its peak Gatwick handled 55 flights an hour. Now the airport has closed its north terminal and operates only for a short window each day. Apart from some repatriation flights and the occasional humanitarian flight with medical supplies, there are now just three regular scheduled flights – one of which is a thrice-weekly Belavia service to Minsk.

With less being spent in the shops, restaurants and cinemas closed, and sporting events on hold, some people are going to inadvertently end up saving money.

So says the CEBR thinktank today. It has calculated that household spending will fall by 30% during the lockdown. So even allowing for wage cuts to furloughed workers, and a rise in job cuts, savings will rise.

Josie Dent, a senior economist at CEBR, explains:

“As shown in today’s retail sales figures, many people are cutting back on their spending amid the coronavirus crisis, due to shops being closed as well as economic uncertainty prompting many to save. Cebr has estimated that during the lockdown, total household spending will be 30% lower than what it was before the crisis.

Therefore, despite falling incomes due to wage cuts and rising unemployment, the amount households save each month is expected to be 130% higher under lockdown than before the crisis.”

The CEBR has also calculated that household disposable incomes will fall by an average of £515 per week during the lockdown, as some families are squeezed badly.

Here’s our full story on drop in retail sales, despite that strong demand for food and alcohol.

Economists have been chewing through today’s UK retail sales report.

The CBI’s Alpesh Paleja shows how food shops have been busier than ever, but non-food shops were rocked by the lockdown:

Simon French of Panmure Gordon reckons online retailers will enjoy a long-term boost, now more people have signed up with them.

IFO have also warned that Germany faces its toughest economic challenge since reunification 30 years ago.

They don’t expect a V-shaped recovery either.

Karen Johnson, head of retail & wholesale at Barclays Corporate Banking, sees some green shoots amid the slump in UK retail sales.

“March was a watershed month for UK retail. As the lockdown came into full effect and many high street businesses closed their doors to customers, sales were down across the board – with the second half of March showing a particularly sharp drop.

“Although the headline figures were expected, there have been some glimmers of hope amongst the shutdown, with spend on food and drink a notable (if not unexpected) area of success. Whilst most ‘bricks and mortar’ retailers have seen walk-in demand disappear, early indications are that online spending has also performed better than predicted – showing that consumer spend has not closed down entirely.”

The City may agree. Ocado, the online grocer, is currently leading the FTSE 100 risers - up 1%. Sainsbury are up 0.7%, defying the wider gloomy mood this morning.

With demand for luxury clothing down, Burberry has turned its hand to producing personal protective equipment for NHS staff.

It told shareholders this morning that it has produced more than 100,000 piece of PPE kit, at a time when NHS staff are running dangerously short.

Burberry, which has temporarily closed its retail outlets, says:

Our trench coat factory in Castleford is now manufacturing non-surgical gowns and supplying them to the UK National Health Service. We are also sourcing surgical masks through our supply chain and supplying them to the NHS and charities such as Marie Curie, which provides nursing care for families living with terminal illness in the UK. To date, we have donated more than 100,000 pieces of PPE.

Burberry is also keeping paying its staff in full, rather than furloughing them. Seniot managers are taking a 20% pay cut from April to June.

UK housebuilder Persimmon says it will resume work next week, a month after suspending operations to comply with the lockdown.

It says it has “developed and tested a range of new site protocols” to enable work to restart next week, telling shareholders:

The Group is therefore announcing today that it will begin a phased re-opening of its construction sites from the morning of Monday 27 April 2020 which will allow us to support our customers by completing the construction of the new homes they have purchased in a safe and responsible manner.

Persimmon argues that it’s acting “in response to the UK Government’s objective of getting the construction sector back to work”.

The tumble in retail sales last month is another reminder of the economic cost of the lockdown.

Yesterday we learned that activity at Britain’s factories and offices is shrinking extremely fast, with the Bank of England warning of the worst contraction in at least a century.

But the health secretary, Matt Hancock, insists that the lockdown will continue until it’s safe to proceed.

He told Radio 4 a few minutes ago:

“I will not allow for changes to be made that are unsafe. We’ve got to keep the public safe. And I understand the economic pressures, that is my background and I care deeply about that.

“I understand those voices who are saying that we should move sooner, but that is not something we’re going to do. We’re going to move when it is safe to do so.”

Hancock also points out that lifting the lockdown too early, triggering a second spike of cases, would cause more economic damage.

Our UK-focused coronavirus liveblog has more details:

European stock markets have dropped opened lower, with the FTSE 100 shedding 77 points or 1.3% to 5748.

Disappointment that Gilead’s Remdesivir drug has apparently failed a Covid-19 test has dampened investors’ mood, with the European-wide Stoxx 600 index down 1%.

Donald Trump’s suggestion that corovavirus patients could be injected with disinfectant or bathed in ultraviolet light (no, it’s not April 1st) has not helped the mood in the markets either.

Paul Donovan of UBS Wealth Management explains:

Economists are dealing with three levels of uncertainty. Uncertainty about the virus. Uncertainty about the policy response. Uncertainty about the economic response to the virus and to policy. Changes in any one of those change economic outcomes. Reports of poor test results for a possible treatment weakened risk markets somewhat.

US President Trump’s suggestion that injecting disinfectant or bright lights be investigated did not reverse that weakness.

Although online shopping hit a record high last month (as a share of all shopping), it still only made up less than a quarter of spending (22.3%).

Lisa Hooker, consumer markets leader at PwC, reckons retailers are struggling to cope with demand (a familiar tale for anyone who tried to book a supermarket delivery slot):

With the high street locked down in the second half of the month, online sales did make up some of the slack with growth of 12.5% compared to last March.

However, with only a 20% rise in online grocery sales despite the Prime Minister encouraging us to ‘use food delivery services where you can’, this suggests that operators are hampered by limited capacity in the face of increased demand, and this number could have been even higher.