Graeme Wearden 

US economy stumbles by creating just 75,000 jobs in May – as it happened

Dollar slides after America only created 75,000 new jobs last month, weaker than the 175,000 expected
  
  

The morning sky over the White House in Washington.
The morning sky over the White House in Washington. Photograph: Jonathan Ernst/Reuters

Summary: Weak jobs report worries economists but boosts stocks

Time for a recap

Job creation slowed sharply in America last month. Just 75,000 new jobs were created in May, down from 224,000 created in April. Economists had expected 175,000 to be created.

May’s Non-Farm Payroll also shows that earnings growth was also disappointing, at just 0.2% month-on-month and 3.1% year-on-year.

That’s a blow to hopes that American families would benefit from rising wages, to help them handle price rises from the US-China trade war.

More encouragingly, the jobless rate remained at its lowest since 1969, at just 3.6%.

The government payroll actually shrank by 15,000, while manufacturing only created a few thousands jobs. Details here.

The figures suggest that the US economy is weakening, as trade disputes with China hurt demand.

Guy Foster, head of research at Brewin Dolphin says the report is worryingly weak.

“Market’s wanted a soft jobs report, but not quite this soft. It’s too cold for a Goldilocks economy

Andrew Hunter of Capital Economics called the report “another sign that economic growth is slowing”, adding:

On balance, we still think Fed officials will want to see evidence of more sustained weakness before taking action, but we are increasingly convinced that the Fed will begin cutting interest rates later this year.

However,Kevin Hassett, head of the president’s Council of Economic Advisors, denies that the escalation in the US-China trade war caused the drop in jobs creation.

It’s hard to believe that a roadblock in the Chinese talks could have a major macroeconomic effect.

The US dollar has fallen sharply, as traders bet that the US Federal Reserve will be forced to cut interest rates this summer - and perhaps twice this year.

This has pushed shares higher on Wall Street, as lower borrowing costs are usually good for asset prices. The Dow is up 1%, as stocks shake off recent gloom.

Investors have also piled into government bonds, driving down the yield on US treasury bills.

Updated

European stock markets are also roaring higher (as traders look longingly towards the end of the week).

In London the FTSE 100 is up 82 points, on hopes that a US interest rate cut might boost the global economy.

Wall Street is pushing higher; the Dow is now up 259 points or 1% at 25,980.

Updated

One more weak jobs report and the Fed could cut borrowing costs, predicts Ronald Temple, Head of US equity at Lazard Asset Management:

“The Fed has already set the stage for easing based on below-target inflation and escalating trade tensions. If tariffs increase as currently scheduled and we get another sluggish job report next month, I believe that it would be difficult to criticize a rate cut on July 31.

Donald Trump’s top economic advisor (for a little longer anyway) is discussing the jobs report on Bloomberg TV.

Kevin Hassett, head of the Council of Economic Advisors, denies that the escalation in the US-China trade war caused the drop in jobs creation.

It’s hard to believe that a roadblock in the Chinese talks could have a major macroeconomic effect.

Hassett concedes, though, that economic uncertainty can be a threat to the economy.

He also suggests that bad weather was a factor.

Hassett also faces questions about his decision to resign this week -- is he unhappy about Donald Trump’s plan to impose tariffs on Mexico unless it curbs migration?

Hassett refuses to reveal what he said to the president about the plan, insisting instead that Trump is right to emphasise border security reform.

But he does reveal that Trump will be briefed on this week’s negotiations with Mexican official when he returns from his trip to Europe tonight.

But did you resign because you’re unhappy about the Mexican tariffs?

They’re “utterly separate things”, Hassett smiles, saying he wants to spend more time with his family.....

Updated

Wall Street jumps on rate cut hopes

Ding ding! The New York stock market is open for business, and shares are rising.

Investors are shrugging off the weak jobs report (details start here), and banking that the Federal Reserve will ride to the rescue with an interest rate cut soon.

Here’s the early prices:

  • Dow Jones industrial average: up 119 points or 0.46% at 25,840
  • S&P 500: up 13 points or 0.48% at 2,857
  • Nasdaq: up 40 points or 0.55% at 7,656

Stephen Hubble, Chief Analyst at Centtrip, suspects the first cut could come later this month:

“Disappointing non-farm payrolls have now joined inflation and trade tensions as matters of concern for the US economy. 75,000 jobs were added in May against an average forecast of 175,000, which shows that the poor read in February was not just a one-off blip and that Trump’s tariffs rhetoric is highly likely to be having a negative impact on the much-lauded US labour market.

“What will the Fed’s response be when it convenes for a regular meeting on 19 June? Will it change its forward guidance, increasing the likelihood of an interest rate cut in July? Or it may decide to bite the bullet and get ahead of the market.”

This neat chart shows how America’s economy has been creating jobs steadily since the end of the last recession a decade ago - matching the rise in stocks.

Josie Dent, senior economist at the CEBR thinktank, also spies a US interest rate cut on the horizon.....

She says:

Positive economic growth in Q2 2019 will mark the 10th year of continuous expansion of the US economy. However after today’s labour market release, few people will be celebrating. With markets also spooked by the trade war, the Federal Reserve Open Market Committee (FOMC) is under pressure to cut rates.

This could come as soon as next month.”

Weak jobs report boosts rate cut talk

Several financial experts are predicting that the US Federal Reserve will cut interest rates, perhaps twice, before the end of 2019.

US interest rates are currently 2.5%, having been hiked four times in 2017 and again in 2018. That’s much higher than in rival advanced economies such as the eurozone (0%) and the UK (0.75%).

Earlier this week, Federal Reserve chair Powell promised to act appropriately to protect growth. Today’s weak jobs report piles more pressure on the Fed to start a cutting cycle soon.

Anthony Kurukgy, Senior Sales Trader at Foenix Partners, says

Fed Chair Jay Powell spooked investors this week as he pointed towards a potential rate cut as part of a dovish repositioning among major central banks, amid fears of faltering global economic growth.

Given today’s missed labour and earnings data, a continued downtrend in the jobs market may force the US Central Bank to unwind some of 2018’s rate hikes in the second half of 2019.

This weak jobs report is another sign that Donald Trump’s trade war with China is hurting the US economy.

Richard Flynn, UK Managing Director at Charles Schwab, says trade tensions are a key worry.

“Today’s disappointing job numbers come hot on the heels of last week’s GDP figures, where economic growth was revised down, albeit by less than expected. However, in general the US economy has remained robust in recent months in spite of escalating trade tensions and global headwinds.

“The ongoing concern facing investors is the back and forth around rising tariffs from both sides of the U.S.-China trade dispute, with the ball currently in the Americans’ court. The near-term impact on the market is easy to see but determining the longer-term economic impact is more difficult.

Jobs report: The Key Points

Let’s get some details on the weakest US jobs report in three months.

The government cut 15,000 jobs in May, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, while private companies hired 90,000 people.

Services companies took on 82,000 people, but factories only hired 3,000 new staff. Construction payrolls swelled by 4,000.

Overall, the number of unemployed Americans was “little changed” at 5.9 million, says the BLS, adding:

The unemployment rates for adult men (3.3 percent), adult women (3.2 percent), teenagers (12.7 percent), Whites (3.3 percent), Blacks (6.2 percent), Asians (2.5 percent), and Hispanics (4.2 percent) showed little or no change in May.

Disappointingly, wage growth remains modest. Average hourly earnings for all employees on private nonfarm payrolls increased by 6 cents to $27.83, or just 0.2% month-on-month. That pulled average wage growth down to 3.1%.

Updated

Today’s report is the weakest since February, and it suggests America’s economy is losing momentum.

Bloomberg says:

U.S. employers last month added the fewest workers in three months and wage gains cooled, suggesting broader economic weakness and likely boosting calls for a Federal Reserve interest-rate cut as President Donald Trump’s trade policies weigh on the economy.

Payrolls rose 75,000 after a downwardly revised 224,000 advance the prior month, according to a Labor Department report Friday that missed all estimates in Bloomberg’s survey calling for 175,000. The jobless rate held at a 49-year low of 3.6% while average hourly earnings climbed 3.1% from a year earlier, less than projected.

Some Wall Street economists may be nervous about their own job security.

None of the financial experts who make predictions for a living thought today’s non-farm payroll report would be so weak. Some thought more than 200,000 new jobs would have been created.

Dollar slides

This weak jobs report appears to increase the chances that America’s central bank cuts interest rates soon.

This is forcing the US dollar down in the international markets.

Traders are also piling into US government debt, driving down the interest rate or yield you get for holding Treasuries. That’s another sign they expect lower interest rates soon.

Despite the weak job creation in May, America’s unemployment rate remains at just 3.6%, the lowest level since 1969.

But earning growth has slowed to 3.1% compared with a year ago, down from 3.2%. That’s another disappointment.

US jobs report disappoints with just 75,000 new hires

Newsflash: Just 75,000 jobs were created across the US economy last month.

That’s much weaker than expected (Wall Street expected the non-farm payroll to rise by 175k ish)

April’s payroll has also been revised down, to show 224,000 new jobs were created, not the 263,000 first reported.

More to follow!

Updated

It’s nearly time for the last major economic news of the week - the US jobs report for May.

Jobs creation is expected to have slowed last month, with the non-farm payroll tipped to increase by around 175,000, from 263,00 in April.

Economists are also hoping that wage growth held steady, and that the jobless rate remained at last month’s 50-year low of just 3.6%.

As things stand, European stock markets are on track for their best week since April.

Britain’s FTSE 100 index has gained 150 points, or around 2%, so far this week. That means around two-thirds of the losses suffered in May have been clawed back.

Anxiety over global growth and trade wars seems to have been replaced by growing confidence that central banks will step in, again, by cutting interest rates to support growth.

That’s why today’s weak data from Germany didn’t spook the City. It simply means eurozone interest rates will remain at zero for even longer.

Holger Schmieding of Berenberg Bank explains why many of the concerns haunting markets should be “self-correcting”.

If growth softens more than expected, central banks will hold against it. The top central bank of the world, the US Fed, has significant ammunition left to do so. The ECB would have to break new ground. But it would do so eventually if need be even under a hypothetical German ECB president.

Unexpectedly robust growth in early 2019 may have encouraged Trump to escalate trade tensions in the last four weeks. If US growth now falls short of expectations and/or equity markets suffer badly, he may become more inclined to strike partial trade deals so that he can still campaign for re-election on an “I created jobs” platform.

If China’s needs to deliver a further stimulus to contain the domestic damage from trade tensions, it probably would not hesitate for long but just go ahead.

Chris Hunt, retail partner at Gowling, reckons Elliott’s takeover of Barnes & Noble makes sense:

“It is encouraging to see an example of the high street increasing the strength of its amour against the ongoing battle to retain physical stores.

The international element of the tie up will also help in term of supply chain capabilities and delivering against fast moving customer needs more closely than ever before – as ever, in-store experiences are likely to be a key feature of retaining the increased network of physical outlooks as the battle to co-exist with online sales continues in earnest.”

Books news! US bookseller Barnes & Noble is being acquired by the owners of the UK’s Waterstones book store group.

Elliott Management is paying $683m, in cash, for Barnes & Noble, and plans to run the group closely alongside Waterstones -- which has managed to repel the threat from Amazon in recent years.

CEO chief executive in James Daunt, who has led the turnaround at Waterstones for many years, will now tun B&N too.

Elliott says:

While each bookseller will operate independently, they will share a common CEO and benefit from the sharing of best practice between the companies. Waterstones has successfully restored itself to sales growth and sustainable profitability, based on a strategy of investment in their store estate and the empowerment of local bookselling teams.

Under Daunt’s leadership and Elliott’s stewardship, this commitment to bookselling excellence will strengthen the ability of both companies to navigate with success a rapidly changing retail landscape.

That works out at $6.50 per Barnes & Noble share, a 43% premium over Barnes & Noble’s stock price before rumours of a deal emerged earlier this week.

Back in the UK, banks have been rebuked for hitting customers with unfairly high overdrafts.

The Financial Conduct Authority is bringing in new rules that outlaw fixed daily or monthly fees for overdrafts. The watchdog will also block banks from imposing higher fees for unauthorised overdrafts.

The FCA is also insisting that banks provide a simple annual interest rate on all overdrafts, so we’ll all be able to shop around with our eyes open,.

The FCA also found that just 1.5% of customers are providing more than half of banks’ unarranged overdraft fees - suggesting the City is making a tidy profit from poor families who are struggling to get out of debt.

So, good news! Except there’s a nagging worry that the banks will find some other way to claw back the lost revenue.

Full story: German trade decline raises fears over global economy

Here’s my colleague Jasper Jolly on the worrying decline in German factories in April:

German exports and industrial output fell sharply in April, triggering fresh fears that trade tensions and continued Brexit uncertainty are weighing on the global growth outlook.

Industrial production in Europe’s largest economy fell 1.9%, which was the worst monthly fall in almost four years, according to Germany’s statistics office. It was much worse than the 0.4% decline forecast by economists.

Exports fell by 3.7% in April compared with the previous month, while imports also fell.

German industry, the powerhouse of the European economy, has suffered in the past year as trade tensions between the US and China have put the brakes on global trade growth. The German car sector, a major exporter, has also been hit by a decline in demand for vehicles in the EU and China....

More here:

Germany’s Brexit boost has fizzled out, agrees Edward Moya of trading firm OANDA.

He says:

It appears German factories are no longer benefiting from Brexit stockpiling and industrial production fell to the a near four year low, prompting many to believe first quarter momentum did not carry over.

With external risks are rising in the eurozone, German manufacturing remains exposed to possible further weakness on Brexit risk and the impending US-Europe tariff battle.

Economists often like to blame unexpectedly weak data on ‘seasonal factors’, or other one-off events.

In Germany’s case, we’ve had disruption in the car industry as new emissions test were introduced. Weather has also been a factor - including heavy snow last winter and unusually low levels on the Rhine (messing up transportation).

But analyst Daniel Lacalle says Germany’s factory downturn can’t be waved away so easily. The broad pattern is clearly down.

Andrew Kenningham of Capital Economics is also concerned that Germany’s economy remains weak.

He told clients that growth appears to have slowed in recent months (having expanded by 0.4% in January-March).

The fall in industrial production in April adds to the evidence that Germany has not shaken off the problems which hit it nearly a year ago, and suggests that the economy slowed sharply in the second quarter of the year.

German industry is still struggling with both domestic and external headwinds, including the weakness of global trade, slowdown in household consumption growth and regulatory confusion in the auto sector.

We don’t expect a sustained improvement anytime soon.

Economist Dr Klaus Borger from the KfW banking group has said the German economy has suffered “a black eye”, adding:

“Industry had a severe backfire in April, which is also reflected in very weak exports.”

Borger fears that the drop in 3.7% drop in exports and 1.9% decline factory output in April could soon have “a noticeable impact on the labour market.”

Updated

UK inflation expectations hit 10-year high

Back in the UK, the public’s long-term expectations of inflation have hit their highest level since the last financial crisis.

A Bank of England survey found that people expect inflation to be 3.8% on average in five years time. That’s up from 3.4% in the last poll, back in February.

That suggests the public have little confidence that the BoE will hit its target of keeping inflation around 2%.

The poll also found that 49% of people expect interest rates to rise in the next 12 month, up from 47% in February.

Swedbank analyst Andreas Wallström has shown how German industry has been on a downward path for some time:

The news that Germany’s economy struggled so much in April has sent European stock markets.... higher!

The main indices are all up around 0.7%, led by energy companies, technology firms and industrial groups.

Even German stocks are up. The DAX index has gained 0.5%, despite the news that factory output and exports both fell sharply in April.

Such confidence may seem misplaced. But it appears that investors are anticipating that the growth slowdown will force central bankers to cut interest rates (where possible) and maintain easy monetary policy for longer.

Bundesbank slashes German growth forecasts

Germany’s central bank has just slashed its growth forecasts, confirming that dark clouds are enveloping the economy.

The Bundesbank now expects German GDP to rise by just 0.6% this year, down from 1.6% predicted back in December.

Growth in 2020 has been downgraded to 1.2%, from 1.6% before.

The Bundesbank blamed weakness at Germany’s factories, saying:

“The German economy is currently experiencing a marked cooldown.

This is mainly due to the downturn in industry, where lacklustre export growth is taking a toll.

The Bundesbank also warned that growth could still be weaker than it expects:

“For economic growth and, to a lesser extent, for the rate of inflation, it is the downside risks that predominate as things stand today.”

This chart confirms that German factories had their worst month in four years:

ING: Germany makes a horrible start to Q2

Carsten Brzeski of ING says Germany’s economy has made ‘a horrible start’ to the second quarter of 2019.

He’s alarmed by the 1.9% drop in industrial production in April, and the stomach-churning 3.7% dive in exports.

German industry had a disappointing start to the second quarter. Both industrial production and trade fell in April, adding to the latest concerns that the eurozone’s largest economy will not be able to maintain its growth pace of the first quarter of the year.....

Let’s be clear, this is a horrible start to the second quarter for German industry, as global trade tensions as well as temporary problems in the automotive sector and chemical industry have left their marks.

Brzeski also points out that German had grown its sales to the UK earlier this year -- as British firms scrambled to stockpile goods.

The German export sector also continues to suffer from the trade conflict. But it’s not all gloom and doom. Maybe it was hoarding in the run up to the first Brexit deadline but exports to the UK increased in the first few months of the year. In fact, German exporters almost sold as much to the UK as to China over this period.

This latest decline in German factory output is disappointing, says Nadia Gharbi, economist at Pictet.

Economist Christophe Barraud believes Germany is also suffering from the slowdown in global trade growth, since the US and China escalated their trade dispute.

Danske Bank also believes there’s a Brexit effect.

They suggest that German exports tumbled in April because UK firms stopped stockpiling goods, after Britain’s exit from the EU was delayed until October.

Brexit appears to have taken a bite out of German exports in April.

Destatis reports that €22.3bn of goods were exported to EU countries who aren’t in the eurozone, a plunge of 8.7% compared with April 2018. Imports from such countries rose by 0.7%, to €18.2bn.

Nine EU members aren’t in the euro, the largest being the UK (the others are Bulgaria, Croatia, Czech Republic, Denmark, Hungary, Poland, Romania and Sweden).

German exports to eurozone members, though, only fell by 0.5% year-on-year, while sales to countries outside Europe jumped by 4% annually.

Updated

Introduction: Weak German data

Good morning, and welcome to our rolling coverage of the world economy, the financial markets, the eurozone and business.

A flurry of weaker-than-expected economic data from Germany this morning has heightened fears over the health of the global economy.

German industrial output slumped by 1.9% month-on-month in April, data firm Destatis reports. That’s much worse than the 0.5% drop economists expected.

It means output was a hefty 1.8% lower than a year ago - before Germany began to slide into a near-recession.

Demand for heavy duty capital goods took a big hit, down 3.3%, a sign that customers were reluctant to commit to new expensive machinery. Consumer goods output fell 0.8%, with intermediate goods down 2.1%, so the decline was wide-ranging.

Such a weak performance from Europe’s largest economy is a blow. It helps explain why the European Central Bank sounded rather downbeat on Thursday, as it pledged to leave interest rates at their current record low for another year at least.

But that’s not all! Separate data shows that German exports slumped by 3.7% month-on-month in April, which Reuters says is the biggest drop since August 2015.

Imports shrank too, by 1.3%, helping to narrow Germany’s traditional trade surplus to €17.9bn, from €20.4bn a year ago.

It all suggests that the US-China trade war and the slowdown in eurozone growth in recent quarters is continuing to weigh on Germany -- not a good sign for growth prospects this year.

Reaction to follow!

Also coming up today

Investors around the globe are waiting for the latest US unemployment report, due at lunchtime UK time.

May’s Non-Farm Payroll is expected to show that 175k new jobs were created last month, down from 263k in April. The jobless rate is expected to remain steady at 3.6%, whilst average hourly earnings are expected to inch higher to 0.3% m/m, up from 0.2% in April.

But the NFP is notoriously volatile and hard to predict. A bad report could put more pressure to cut US interest rates, as Jasper Lawler of London Capital Group explains:

The near term direction for the markets depend on whether the gate is open or shut. Should the NFP disappoint, expectations of a Fed cut potentially as soon as June or July could rise.

The CME FedWatch shows the markets are seeing a 22% probability of a hike in June and a 55% probability of a hike in July.

The agenda

  • 8.30am BST: Halifax survey of UK house prices for May
  • 1.30pm BST: US non-farm payroll report for May
 

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