Here’s Jerome Powell’s message to the White House:

And that’s the end of the press conference.

Memo to the press pack: Please ask more questions about Donald Trump’s attempts to influence the Fed next time.

Q: Will wage growth ever get over 4% in this economic cycle?

Powell says earnings growth depends on productivity, which is hard to forecast. He’s not sure if last year’s productivity growth can be sustained (and if not, wages might be more subdued).

More reaction is flooding in.

Anna Stupnytska, global economist at Fidelity International, suspects that the Fed will remain patient for the rest of the year....and then raise rates in 2020.

With the bar for a rate cut higher than market pricing implies, we believe the Fed is likely to remain in the ‘wait and see’ mode through 2019.

Beyond that, the combination of easier financial conditions, continued tightening in the labour markets and some improvement in growth and inflation might necessitate another policy pivot, putting the Fed back onto the policy normalisation trajectory in 2020. This remains our base case. Given the current expectations of no more rate hikes, markets would be vulnerable in that scenario.”

We’re getting a lot of questions about inflation, trying to nail Jerome Powell down about what conditions would trigger a change of policy?

But this is like trying to man-mark Lionel Messi - Powell is easily shrugging off the challenges and declining to commit.

Top investor Mohamed El-Erian of Allianz agrees that the Fed is less worried about the global economy.

He’s also struck by Powell’s patient approach to monetary policy.

Jerome Powell sounds extremely calm and assured, and giving an impression of someone confident about the situation.

Does that means that speculation of a looming rate cut is misplaced?

Q: What would it take to make you cut interest rates? A recession? Or is an insurance cut possible?

Jerome Powell won’t be lured into reckless speculation - saying that the Fed simply thinks its current stance is appropriate, adding:

The committee is comfortable with our current policy stance.

Onto questions:

Q: Inflation has been below your target for some months - is it time to act?

Powell replies that the Fed would be concerned if it saw inflation persistently above or below 2% - but it’s not concerned yet (and it tolerated inflation over 2% last year).

Powell reveals that the Fed had a discussion about the “long-run composition” of its bond portfolio.

In other worse, what mix of short and long-term bond maturity the Fed would hold on its balance sheet.

But there’s no decision today, and no rush to make a decision.

On geopolitics, Powell says that the risk of a disorderly Brexit has receded. He also points to signs of progress in the US-China trade war talks.

Investors should take the Fed’s decision in their stride, says Neil Birrell, chief investment officer at Premier Asset Management:

“There was no surprise as the Fed held rates at their meeting today. Central banks around the world are on pause at present; they remain worried about weaker global growth numbers and financial markets selling off.

Jerome Powell and his colleagues at the Fed are right to ignore Trump’s calls for rate cuts today, argues Aaron Anderson, senior vice president of research at Fisher Investments.

he says:

Risks of a significant economic downturn or runaway inflation seem equally low, which argues against policy changes.

The Trump administration pressuring the Fed to cut rates and reinstate QE misses the fact the economy has performed much better since the Fed ended misguided monetary policies like QE and zero interest rates.

Central bank independence is an essential tool -- if investors believe you’re vulnerable to political pressure then they lose faith in your ability to focus on your day job (controlling inflation and financial stability).

And Fed says it will be “patient” when deciding rate changes (rather than being bounced by Trump).

The statement says

Consistent with its statutory mandate, the Committee seeks to foster maximum employment and price stability. In support of these goals, the Committee decided to maintain the target range for the federal funds rate at 2-1/4 to 2-1/2 percent.

The Committee continues to view sustained expansion of economic activity, strong labor market conditions, and inflation near the Committee’s symmetric 2 percent objective as the most likely outcomes.

In light of global economic and financial developments and muted inflation pressures, the Committee will be patient as it determines what future adjustments to the target range for the federal funds rate may be appropriate to support these outcomes.

The Fed has made one policy change - it has trimmed the rate which it pays banks who leave excess funds with the central bank.

This is effectively a bit of monetary policy plumping, and NOT a full-blown interest rate cut.

Reuters explains:

At its two-day meeting, the Fed also trimmed the amount of interest it pays banks on excess reserves to 2.35 percent from 2.40 percent in an effort to ensure its key overnight lending rate, the federal funds rate, remains within the current target band.

Hello again. In a few minutes we’ll learn whether the US Federal Reserve has voted to change US interest rates.

The Fed is likely to leave borrowing costs unchanged -- despite being urged by President Trump to give the US economy more juice.

Policymakers on the FOMC may also have changed their assessment of the US economy. Hold on tight....

Britain’s FTSE 100 index of top shares has sunk to its lowest level in a month.

With Europe closed for May Day, a quiet session ended with the Footsie down 33 points at 7,385.

The stronger pound helped to drag multinational shares down (by making their overseas earnings less valuable). News that factory export orders fell last month didn’t help the mood in the City.

Investors are now waiting for the Federal Reserve decision on interest rates, in two hours time.

America’s reserves of crude oil have swelled much more than expected.

Nearly 10 million extra barrels of oil were stockpiled last week, according to the Energy Information Administration. Analysts had only expected around 1.5 million more.

It suggests that US oil producers are pumping hard, to make up from any shortfall from Iranian sanctions and instability in Venezuala.

Newsflash: America’s factories posted modest growth last month.

That’s according to data firm Markit, whose US manufacturing PMI has crept up to 52.6 from 52.4 in March.

US firms reported a jump in new orders, but a slowdown in job creation.

That’s not as fast as the UK (obviously American factories don’t get a Brexit stockpiling boost) but better than Canada.

Markit says:

U.S. manufacturing firms registered a moderate improvement in operating conditions in April. Expansions in output and new orders picked up from March’s recent lows, with new business growth the fastest for three months. Despite a further rise in backlogs of work, the rate of job creation was the slowest since June 2017 and only moderate overall, in part reflecting skill shortages.

Expectations towards the coming year were relatively subdued and down to the lowest seen so far this year. Meanwhile, inflationary pressures continued to soften for a sixth month running.

Uh-oh.... Canada’s factory sector has suffered a contraction, highlighting that Britain’s manufacturers aren’t the only ones experiencing problems.

Canada’s manufacturing PMI fell from 50.5 in March to 49.7 in April, signalling that conditions deteriorated.

Firms say they suffered “modest reductions” in output, new orders and employment last month. A sign that the global economy remains subdued.

Boom! Wall Street has hit a fresh record high at the start of trading, after Apple reassured investors that its business is on track.

The S&P 500 has gained 6 points, or 0.2%, at the open to 2,952, a new all-time peak.

Apple share are leading the rally. up over 4.5% to $210.

The tech giant issued an upbeat sales forecast last night, boosted its dividend, and increased its share buyback programme - all signs that it isn’t seeing a slowdown. That has reassured investors, and helped them look beyond a slowdown in iPhone sales.

Although quarterly revenues fell 5% to $58bn, and earnings dipper 10%, Apple seems to be succeeding in pivoting from hardware to services. Services revenue reached a new all-time high during the quarter, to $11.5bn.

Most other stock markets are closed today for May Day - traditionally a time to celebrate workers’ rights. In Athens, former finance minister Yanis Varoufakis has been among the marchers.

Back in the UK, here’s our news story about how Sainsbury’s CEO is sticking tight to his position, despite the failure of his planned merger with Asda:

Although, as financial analyst and broadcaster Louise Cooper points out, it’s not ultimately Mike Coupe’s decision alone....

Financial experts agree that the strong ADP jobs report is a positive sign for the US economy.... but could create pressure to raise interest rates again.

Here’s Paul La Monica of CNN:

And here’s Investing.com’s analyst Jesse Cohen:

Bloomberg’s Ed van der Walt has spotted that small US firms are taking on more staff:

Ireland has appointed its first ever overseas bank governor - New Zealander Gabriel Makhlouf.

Makhlouf, who is currently New Zealand’s government’s chief economic and financial adviser, will replace Philip Lane who recently joined the European Central Bank (corrected, apologies!).

Appointing a non-Irish citizen is a first.... but Ireland has missed the chance to break another barrier, by handing the top job to a woman. Deputy Governor Sharon Donnery is one of several insiders who could have taken the reins, according to the Irish Independent.

In a twist which Alanis Morissette would appreciate, Brexit uncertainty has also hurt David Cameron’s attempts to build up a fund to invest in China.

The former PM’s UK-China Fund has still not not completed its first round of fundraising (it was scheduled for last autumn), suggesting efforts to raise $1bn are not going well.

Jim Pickard of the FT, who reported the story this morning, says insiders are blaming Brexit uncertainty for the lacklustre progress. And few individuals are more responsible for this situation than the man who called an referendum on Britain’s EU membership without a plan for if Leave won.

More here:

James Smith of ING fears that UK factories face months of Brexit uncertainty, and costly preparations in case the No Deal scenario comes to pass.

Businesses have to plan for the worst, and that gives manufacturers a choice. Some may opt to retain their current elevated stock levels, although this doesn’t come without cost – be it through financing expenses, or simply the opportunity cost of putting the money at work somewhere else. Others may choose to unwind current stock levels and rebuild them closer to October – although in either case, there are reports that warehousing space is already in short-supply given seasonal demand ahead of Christmas.

One way or another, the outlook for the sector looks challenging and this is one reason why we expect overall economic growth to remain capped over coming months. We don’t currently expect the Bank of England to increase rates this year.

Make UK (which represents British manufacturers) is urging MPs to reach a Brexit agreement before more overseas clients take their business elsewhere.

Francesco Arcangeli, economist at Make, says UK businesses could do without another Brexit drama when the current extension expires in the autumn.

Demand from overseas has been hit particularly hard with several overseas customers reducing their British supply chains to divest themselves of their reliance on the UK market.

“This is a clear wake-up call for the government to make sure that time is not wasted in solving the Brexit impasse so we can avoid another cliff-edge climb down in October.”

The sight of MPs repeatedly failing to agree a Brexit plan may have encouraged foreign customers to take their custom elsewhere.

Duncan Brock, group director at the Chartered Institute of Procurement & Supply, says the Westminster deadlock helped to drive export orders down last month.

“As Brexit prevarication continued, overseas clients took to action and found new supply chain routes away from the UK resulting in the second-fastest drop in new export orders in four-and-a-half years.

“The mild rise in domestic orders was unable to meet this significant shortfall in business and with the extended Brexit deadline, the levels of stockpiling slowed as UK manufacturers turned their attention to building efficiencies instead.

In another blow, UK manufacturers cut jobs in April, for the third time in the past four months.

UK factory growth would be weaker without the boost from Brexit stockpiling, as some companies are still hoarding raw materials and components, just in case...

Factory bosses also reported that Brexit stockpiling eased up in April, now that the UK is likely to remain in the EU until (at least) October....

Newsflash: Mortgage approvals in the UK have fallen to the lowest in over a year.

The Bank of England has just reported that 62,341 mortgages were signed off by lender in March, down from 65,340 in February - and less than City economists expected.

That highlights that the UK property market is subdued, even though prices are creeping up again.

Thanks, gang!

Here’s Rob Davies’s take on the UK house price figures:

UK house prices appear to be pulling out of their recent slide, as this chart from Nationwide today shows:

Guy Gittins, Managing Director of estate agent Chestertons, says there are signs of life in the London property sector -- despite a dearth of houses on the market.

“For a while now, there has been a misconception that the London property market has ground to a halt due to Brexit paranoia. While it is true that sales volumes, along with prices, have fallen since their peak, we have seen a sharp upturn in London buyers returning to the market in increasing numbers with a month-on-month rise in people registering to look for properties, viewing properties and offering.

Our concern has been that there are very few new properties coming onto the market to feed demand, and our figures show that compared to this time last year, the number of new properties being marketed is down 21%. However, 5.6% more properties came onto the market in March compared to February and the total number of available properties stood 4.1% higher

Over in the City, Sainsbury’s CEO Mike Coupe has been fending off questions about his future after his plan to merge with Asda was shot down last week.

Coupe was forced to deny that he has been asked to resign, telling BBC One that:

I have the full support of the board. The board’s been very supportive.... and I’m committed to Sainsbury’s as a business.

He also declared that “I’m sticking with the company” (channelling the UK’s glue-wielding climate change protesters).

Sainsbury’s results, released this morning, show that the company burned through £46m in costs on the Asda deal before competition regulators torpedoed it last week.

Like-for-like sales fell 0.2% last year, while profits shrank from £309 to £219m.

With Asda but a memory, Coupe is now pledging to “increase and accelerate investment” and cut net debt. Investors seem keen - shares in the supermarket chain have jumped almost 6% this morning.

Even Sonic the Hedgehog might be daunted by the leap to get onto the housing ladder in London.

Despite price growth slowing, first time buyers in the capital still need to be earning around 60% more than the average Londoner, in order to get a mortgage.

That level of unaffordability simply prices most people out of the market, as they can’t possibly get a large enough mortgage .

Weak house growth is good news for potential buyers, giving them more muscle to haggle sellers down.

Jonathan Hopper, managing director of Garrington Property Finders, explains:

For all the disappointment it may have caused a few sellers, the property market’s correction has tempted more would-be homeowners to the table and given many buyers a strong buying opportunity.

“Almost three years on from the EU referendum, there is no end in sight to Britain’s political limbo, yet on the property front line we’re seeing increasing numbers of buyers seize on Brexit uncertainty to make aggressive offers and secure some big discounts.”

North London estate agent Jeremy Leaf says the Brexit crisis is keeping house price growth down:

Soft growth in the last set of figures from Nationwide is continuing and confirmed on the high street. Clearly, Brexit uncertainty in the minds of homebuyers is still outweighing almost record low mortgage rates and employment numbers, as well as improved affordability.

‘A glimmer of good news is that first-time buyers are taking advantage, particularly of Help to Buy and deposits from the Bank of Mum and Dad, not forgetting reduced competition from landlords.

However, landlords leaving the sector has meant some hardening of rents which has made deposit saving, we are finding particularly in London, more difficult, and which is making that illusive first purchase trickier.’

Today’s report shows that UK house price growth has been on steady downward path since summer 2016, and the Brexit referendum: