Graeme Wearden 

FTSE 250 hits six-month high; Brexit delay lifts holiday firms – as it happened

Rolling coverage of the latest economic and financial news, as shares in easyJet and TUI rally
  
  

Members of the public walking past the city of London skyline.
The City of London skyline. The pound is refusing to welcome the latest Brexit extension. Photograph: Dan Kitwood/Getty

And finally, the FTSE 250 index of medium-sized UK firms has closed at its highest level since last October.

The index ended the day at 19621, up 136 points or 0.7%, a level last seen before last autumn’s share selloff turned into a rout.

Builders’ supply firm Grafton led the way, up 6%, followed by Thomas Cook, up 5.4% on hopes of a dash to book summer holidays. Royal Mail (up 4.7%) and Dixons Carphone (+4.5%) were also among the top risers, amid hopes that Britain’s economy will avoid a no-deal crisis.

Travel firms also led the risers in the FTSE 100 index of top firms, with easyJet and TUI both closing around 8.2% higher, followed by British Airways’ parent company IAG.

The pound isn’t enjoying the uncertainty of a six-month extension, though - it’s down 0.2% against the US dollar tonight at $1.3061.

Goodnight! GW

Retail chain Ted Baker is under pressure to publish the report into the ‘forced hugs’ claims which forced founder Ray Kelvin to step down last month.

The company said this morning it would launch new training programmes for staff on “acceptable workplace conduct”, but isn’t revealing exactly what was discovered since Kelvin’s conduct was first criticised.

One investor has told us that the report shouldn’t be swept under the carpet.....

Clearly no-one told Primark that Britain’s suffering a high street crisis.

The discount fast-fashion chain opened its biggest ever store in Birmingham today -- all 160,000 square foot of it. And there was quite a party atmosphere, as my colleague Sarah Butler reports:

The five-floor building has three food venues, including a Disney-themed cafe, a Disney shopping area, a nailbar, hair and beauty studio in partnership with London’s Duck & Dry, a barbers and a Hogwarts Wizarding World area.

The store, developed from the former Pavilions centre which housed more than 49 shops, overtakes Primark’s 150,000sq ft Manchester store as it’s biggest outlet. The company has 365 stores across Europe and the US.

Summary

Time for a quick recap.

Relief that Britain won’t crash out of the EU tomorrow has boosted shares in airline and holiday firms, and sent Britain’s FTSE 250 index to a six-month high.

British bosses are urging MPs to use the new six-month Brexit extension wisely, amid worries that continued uncertainty will hurt the economy.

Sterling has refused to get too excited, with the pound flat against the US dollar at $1.308.

IMF chief Christine Lagarde has welcomed the extension, saying it will give Britain more time to prepare for Brexit (whenever it actually happens....)

Worries about economic growth weighed on Asian markets today, amid continued concern that the world economy may struggle in 2019.

But the latest US unemployment figures are encouraging, with ‘initial jobless claims’ hitting their lowest since 1969.

Lagarde has also swept aside the idea that Modern Monetary Theory could boost the world economy, saying she doesn’t think it would work for any country.

Lagarde: Brexit extension removes 'terrible outcome'

IMF chief Christine Lagarde has given a cautious welcome to the Brexit extension agreed last night.

She tells journalists in Washington that “with her positive hat on”, the agreement removes the risk of a no-deal Brexit tomorrow.

At least the UK is not leaving on the 12 April without a deal...

It gives time for continued discussions between the various parties involved in the UK.

This new extension will allow “economic agents” in Britain, such as companies and workers, more time to “better prepare” for the future, she continues.

But there’s a downside too.... more uncertainty (as Make UK have warned).

As Lagarde puts it:

On the other hand it’s continued uncertainty, and it does not resolve [Brexit] apart from postponing what would have been a terrible outcome.

Over in Washington, IMF chief Christine Lagarde is holding a press conference to mark the start of the Spring Meeting with the World Bank.

She warns that the global economy has reached a ‘quite uncertain’ stage, given the recent slowdown. The Fund expects growth to recover in 2020, but this is subject to ‘downside risks’, Lagarde says.

But she’s not too downhearted. Asked about the IMF’s latest growth downgrades, she replies jauntily that “spring is in the air, and winter is not coming.”

Newsflash: UK chancellor Philip Hammond says he’ll be pushing for action on sustainable growth and climate change action, at the IMF/World Bank Spring Meeting this week.

In a statement just released, Hammond says:

“I will be in Washington this week to showcase our world-class expertise and experience in tackling some of the urgent challenges of our time, from climate change to trade and big data.

“Global Britain is at a turning point and our future is bright. We must work together with our partners across the world to create a safer, more prosperous and more sustainable economy for future generations.”

I spotted Hammond in the House of Commons a couple of hours ago, as Theresa May updated MPs on the new Brexit extension, so he’s presumably missing today’s action in Washington.

But once the chancellor arrives, he’ll be telling a new “Coalition of Finance Ministers for Climate Action” that older generations need to do more.

Just one problem; a new government report has shown Britain’s on track to miss some of its own carbon reduction targets....

Newsflash from Washington: US treasury secretary Steven Mnuchin has said America and China haven’t resolved their trade war issues yet, despite fresh talks last week.

The Brexit bounce is pushing holiday stocks even higher.

TUI and easyJet are both up almost 8%, as traders anticipate a surge in holiday bookings now fears of an immediate hard Brexit are fading.

Updated

Newsflash: The number of Americans filing new claims for unemployment benefit has hit a new 49-year low.

Just 196,000 new initial claims applications were made last week, the lowest level since October 1969. That’s down from 204,000 the previous week.

This extends a long trend of falling claims, as the US recovered from the financial crisis. Today’s data show that the slowing global economy, and the trade war with China, hasn’t yet hurt the labour market.

Updated

Stephen Phipson, chief executive of the manufacturing lobby group Make UK, has warned that some smaller businesses “won’t survive” a fresh Brexit delay until October.

That’s because they’ve already committed vital resources to handle a March Brexit, and will have borrowed capital to spend on stockpiling key raw materials and components.

Here’s the story:

FTSE 250 index hits six-month high

With an immediate no-deal Brexit off the table, shares in many UK-focused companies are rising.

This has driven the FTSE 250 index, of medium-sized firms, up to its highest level since last October. IWG, which operates serviced offices, is the top risers, along with retailers such as Dixons, WH Smith and Card Factory.

The blue-chip FTSE 100 has now shrugged off its earlier losses, thanks to the rally in airline and holiday stocks (see earlier post).

David Madden of London Capital Group explains:

The UK travel sector reacted well to the news that Brexit has been pushed back by six months, as easyJet, International Consolidated Airlines and TUI are some of the biggest gainers on the FTSE 100 this morning.

Updated

Here’s Moody’s analyst Colin Ellis on Brexit:

Without immediate pressure for the UK Parliament to achieve consensus on the withdrawal terms, the willingness of UK politicians to agree a way forward may wane.

There is still no proposal for Brexit that presently commands a parliamentary majority; and the current state of uncertainty will continue to have credit negative effects on the UK economy and companies across the business spectrum, holding back investment and spending. The onus remains on the UK Parliament to agree a way forward.

Credit rating agency Moody’s has now weighed in, saying Brexit uncertainty will continue to have “credit negative effects” on the UK.

It also welcomed the decision to avoid a no-deal Brexit tomorrow (which could have led to a prompt rating cut).

Brexit-weary politicians, and the public, might welcome a break from the constant crisis. But Alexandra Dumitru, economist at Rabobank, points out that another six-month delay has an economic cost.

“A delay until October is likely to notably hinder business investment, which already contracted four quarters in a row last year.

While a tight labour market and relatively high capacity utilisation should have incentivised firms to speed up their investments, the pipeline in both manufacturing and services is already seeing a downward trend and another delay is likely to stall this further.”

Holiday industry gets Brexit boost

Brexit anxiety has been weighing on the holiday industry for months, so it’s no surprise to see airline stocks leading the FTSE 100 risers this morning.

EasyJet has jumped 4.1%, followed by International Airlines Group (owner of British Airways) which has gained 3.8%, and package holiday firm TUI which is up 3%.

Last week, easyJet alarmed the City by warning that Brexit was deterring customers from booking holidays, forcing airlines to slash ticket prices.

Now that Britain is probably remaining in the EU until the end of October, many Brits may now feel prepared to book an overseas break.

Some holiday firms are already making their pitch:

Updated

Andrew Gray, head of Brexit at PwC, makes a good point -- Brexit has stopped being an event, and become a prolonged period of uncertainty with no clear ending.

So some firms may press on with their Brexit contingency planning, rather than simply deleting, say, “29 March” and replacing it with “31 October”.

Gray explains:

For many businesses, the wheels are already in motion, and this extension will mean they need to decide whether to pause and keep options open, to roll back preparations, or reevaluate their options on a more strategic basis. It won’t always be as simple as changing the end date of plans already in place.

“Business strategy has been to keep options open for as long as possible however, it is difficult for them to do that for much longer, especially international investors for whom the UK is only one market of many.

“Any extra time to plan for Brexit is a gift. As Mr Tusk said, don’t waste it.”

Brexit delay: Business leaders and investors demand progress

The news that Brexit has been delayed, and will now cast a scary shadow over Halloween, has not sent champagne corks popping in Britain’s boardrooms.

While there’s relief that a no-deal crisis has been averted, many business leaders are warning that prolonged uncertainty will also hurt the economy.

Edwin Morgan, interim director general of the Institute of Directors, leads the chorus of concern, saying MPs must now find a solution.

“Confirmation of a further extension removes the immediate threat of no deal, but will bring little comfort for businesses when so much remains up in the air.

“Firms don’t want to see more of the same. They want to see politicians build consensus around a way forward that finally breaks the cycle of indecision.

“Westminster absolutely cannot feel the pressure is off now, quite the opposite, we need an increased sense of urgency towards finding a solution.”

David Zahn, head of European Fixed Income at Franklin Templeton, says the risk of a no-deal Brexit hasn’t vanished:

“The European Union’s offer to delay Brexit until October 31 has also extended the uncertainty surrounding the whole saga. And financial markets hate uncertainty. We regard this extension offer as another case of the authorities kicking the can down the road. There doesn’t seem to be any agreement of how to come to a conclusion.

“The big outcome is continued uncertainty for markets. It likely means the pound will remain under pressure and at the whim of the political headlines of the day. UK government bonds will likely remain sought-after as investors await an outcome.

Jenny Tooth OBE, CEO of the UK Business Angels Association, warns that small businesses risk losing access to European investment, without replacement options from the UK.

She explains:

The potential loss of investment from the continent including the European Regional Development Fund, Horizon 2020 and the Jeremie fund could create a huge investment gap in UK. This is concerning not only for the loss of EU money, but the risk that Government support for finance to replace this EU funding may take time to have an impact on the ground.”

Catherine McGuinness, policy chair at the City of London Corporation, fears that firms will keep moving jobs overseas while they worry about Brexit:

“Sustained uncertainty is leaving business with its hands tied, reluctant to make everyday decisions on recruitment, expansion, and investment. While we welcome the avoidance of a catastrophic no-deal Brexit for now, a long extension should not mean we continue to kick the can down the road.

“Day by day, as uncertainty persists, so does the threat of more businesses moving jobs and operations away from the UK. It is vital that politicians in the UK and EU come together to agree a withdrawal deal that puts people and business first and provides much needed certainty.

Updated

European stock markets have also mostly dropped at the open, although French luxury stocks are having a better day.

In London, the FTSE 100 has dropped by 0.5%. with mining stocks among the fallers.

Jasper Lawler of London Capital Group points to concerns about global growth:

A dovish ECB, milder US core inflation and a growing number of Fed policymakers who now see policy moving in either direction have investors increasingly convinced that interest rate rises will be kept on hold.

On the one hand, global central banks sitting tight keeping a patient wait and see approach is a positive backdrop for stocks. However, on the other hand the global growth slowdown story is a complication and is weighing on sentiment. Both the ECB and the Fed identified slowing global growth as important risk factors. The central bank observations come following the third downgrade in global growth by the IMF in just six months.

However, shares in LVMH Moët Hennessy Louis Vuitton have jumped 3% after it beat profit forecasts, showing that there’s still demand for luxury goods.

Updated

The pound is stubbornly refusing to welcome Britain’s latest Brexit extension.

Sterling is unchanged at $1.309 against the US dollar, and down slightly against the euro at €1.159, after the EU kicked the can down the road until the end of October.

Dean Turner, UK Economist at UBS Global Wealth Management, says the possibility of a general election will keep pressure on the pound.

He told clients:

  • “We would avoid taking positions as uncertainty should return with a potential general election.”
  • “Given the current state of the polls which show the two leading parties neck-and-neck and other parties gaining, the outcome of any of the ballots ahead is highly uncertain. Positioning for one outcome or another is fraught with risk, in our view.”

Asian stock markets are a shallow sea of red in late trading.

China has born the brunt of the selloff, with the CSI 300 index closing down 2.2%. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng has lost 0.8%, with Australia’s S&P/ASX is off 0.4%.

Associated Press say last night’s Federal Reserve minutes have dampened the mood:

In the minutes, several Fed officials also said that they may feel differently [about interest rate moves], depending on the data that surfaces.

Weaker growth and lower inflation expectations could prompt the Fed to cut rates, while stronger growth and rising inflation expectations could warrant a rate hike.

An indication of flexibility caused Asian markets to open in a “slightly soft mood,” said Selena Ling, chief economist at OCBC Bank.

“The FOMC minutes suggested that rates could head in either direction from here, but members generally favour being patient for the remainder of the year,” she added in an interview.

Introduction: Growth worries abound

Good morning, and welcome to our rolling coverage of the world economy, the financial markets, the eurozone and business.

Growth worries are weighing on the markets again today, as the International Monetary Fund warns that the global economy remains fragile.

The IMF, whose spring meetings with the World Bank begin in Washington this week, is worried that the global economic expansion is slowing -- and vulnerable to a painful slump.

As Tobias Adrian, head of the IMF’s monetary and capital markets department, put it:

“After years of economic expansion, global growth is slowing, sparking concerns about a deeper downturn.”

IMF chief economist Gita Gopinath warned that a plethora of risks could drag growth lower this year, from trade wars to a Chinese ‘hard landing’.

She says:

Tensions in trade policy could flare up again and play out in other areas (such as the auto industry), with large disruptions to global supply chains. Growth in systemic economies such as the euro area and China may surprise on the downside, and the risks surrounding Brexit remain heightened.

A deterioration in market sentiment could rapidly tighten financing conditions in an environment of large private and public sector debt in many countries, including sovereign-bank doom loop risks.

Gopinath called for politicians to consider launching synchronised fiscal stimulus measures if these risks materialise -- rather than simply rely on central banks to bail them out again.

The Fund also warned that central bankers are risking a new financial crisis by pumping up short-term growth rates:

America’s central bank, the Federal Reserve, also struck a cautious tone overnight. The minutes of its latest meeting showed that policymakers see “significant uncertainties” as they try to juggle monetary policy.

Asian markets have fallen in response, with China’s main markets down 1.7% in late trading.

We’ll hear more from the IMF today, when managing director Christine Lagarde holds a press conference to formally open its Spring Meeting in Washington.

Also coming up today

When UK business leaders and City investors went to bed last night, they couldn’t be quite certain that Britain wouldn’t crash out of the European Union on Friday. Today, they’ve woken up to the news that Brexit has been delayed until Halloween.....and possibly longer still.

After talking long into the night, EU leaders agreed to offer the UK an extension on article 50 until 31 October; an offer Theresa May grasped firmly.

Britain will also be tested on its progress in June, and there’s still a chance that Brexit could happen earlier if parliament passes the Withdrawal Bill.

Brexit pushed business leaders to the end of their tether some months ago, so there’s no appetite for yet more uncertainty.

Carolyn Fairbairn, CBI Director-General, is pleading with Westminster to end the crisis.

“This new extension means that an imminent economic crisis has been averted, but it needs to mark a fresh start. More of the same will just mean more chaos this autumn.

“Businesses will today be adjusting their no deal plans, not cancelling them.

“For the good of jobs and communities across the country, all political leaders must use the time well. Sincere cross-party collaboration must happen now to end this crisis.”

The agenda

  • 1.30pm BST: US weekly jobless figures
  • 2.30pm BST: IMF managing director Christine Lagarde holds press conference

Updated

 

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