Newsflash: US consumer confidence has fallen, for the first time in three months.

The University of Michigan’s survey of consumer sentiment, just released, dropped to 96.9 for April, down from March’s 98.4.

Americans are a little less prepared to hail Trumponomics too, it seems...

The pound is also ending the week quite strongly, on hopes that the Brexit crisis may ease.

Sterling has gained half a cent against the US dollar today, putting it back over $1.31 (where it’s been bobbing for some time now).

Labour’s shadow chancellor, John McDonnell, helped the rally by telling reporters that talks with Theresa May on Brexit are making progress.

He said:

Talks are going on, constructive, so we’re hopeful, positive. But we’ll see by the end of next week how far we’ve got.

Disney and JP Morgan have helped to drive Wall Street higher in early trading.

The S&P 500 has gained 0.5%, with JP Morgan up 4.5% after smashing profit expectations today.

The narrower Dow Jones industrial average is up 282 points, or 1%, thanks to Disney’s 11% surge. Goldman Sachs (+3%) and Caterpillar (+1.7%) are also leading the rally.

Boom! Shares in Walt Disney have hit a record high, as Wall Street hails its new streaming service.

Disney+ will combine many of its major franchises, from Star Wars and Pixar to Marvel and National Geographic. And at $6.99, or $69.99 a year, it will undercut existing players such as Netflix and Amazon Prime. That could help Disney win customers in an increasingly packed marketplace....

This has sent Disney shares up over 10% at the open.

Here’s our news story on the sharp fall in US imports into China:

Last night, the new head of the World Bank fired a warning shot at China, telling Beijing to come clean about its lending to poor countries.

In his first public appearance as World Bank president, David Malpass said there were already 17 African countries at high risk of debt distress.

“That number is growing as new contracts come in and are not transparent,” he added.

The European news service EurActiv is reporting that the EU could escalate its trade dispute with America next week.

They say the EU could impose new levies on €19n of US imports, in response to ‘unfair’ subsidies provided to Boeing.

Here’s the story:

The EU is considering slapping more than €19bn in fresh tariffs against the US in response to subsidies provided to planemaker Boeing, EU and European officials told EurActiv.

The European commission is expected to send to the member states on Friday (12 April) a list of US products that could be affected by fresh duties. The total value of these exports to the European market is around €19bn.

The amount is much higher than the initial estimate of the damage caused by the subsidies made in 2012, when the Commission estimated that the potential amount could be €12bn.

The list is expected to be published on Wednesday for public consultation.

More from the chancellor....

European banking stocks have been enjoying a good few weeks - a sign that the eurozone economy is turning a corner?

JP Morgan has got the latest earnings season off to a solid start, by posting record revenues and profits.

The Wall Street bank achieved adjusted earnings per share of $2.65, beating analysts’ forecasts of $2.35.

Adjusted revenue for the quarter came in at $29.9bn, again ahead of estimates of $28.36bn.

CEO Jamie Dimon also sounded upbeat about economic prospects, saying:

The US economy continues to grow, employment and wages are going up, inflation is moderate, financial markets are healthy and consumer and business confidence remains strong.

Dimon was on rather less secure footing earlier this week, when asked to explain how low-paid JP Morgan staff are expected to survive....

European stock markets are ending the week on the front foot, with gains in most major bourses.

In London, the FTSE 100 is up 30 points, or 0.4%, with mining stocks and banks among the risers.

Traders are taking some comfort from today’s Chinese economic data – such as the pick-up in lending.

Stephen Innes of SPI Asset Management suggests that hopes of an end to the US-China trade war are also making investors bullish:

China’s total trade with the US slumped by 11% in the first three months of this year, suggesting that if a US-China trade solution is sealed, it will provide a significant and needed boost to Chinas economy and will be much-need shot in the arm for the global economy.

Eurozone factories would have done better in February if Germany hasn’t been such a drag.

On an annual basis, eurozone industrial production was 0.3% lower than in February 2018. But in Germany, it fell by a chunky 2% year-on-year.

Alastair Neame, senior economist at the CEBR thinktank, blame the US-China trade war for some of Germany’s ills:

“While UK industrial production experienced a short-term boost, due to Brexit stockpiling in February, industrial output across the Eurozone fell. As the global economy cools and the US continues to hold its protectionist stance to trade, the outlook for the sector in Europe looks weak....

The slowdown in Chinese growth, continued escalation of trade tensions with the US and nervousness over Brexit are clearly affecting manufacturers’ order books.

Economists have welcomed today’s better-than-feared eurozone production figures (showing a mere 0.2% drop in output in February).

Aila Mihr of Danske Research says it’s more encouraging than the PMI reports (which showed factory output shrinking at its fastest rate in over six years)

Claus Vistesen of Pantheon Economics agrees....and also suggests that China’s latest stimulus measures could spur the global economy.

Protesters have estimated that around 100 people gathered outside HSBC’s Birmingham offices to take action against what they say is the bank’s “complicity in climate change, war and military action”.

Huda Ammori, a campaigns officer at Palestine Solidarity Campaign told the Guardian that the protest was organised by a raft of anti-war, pro-Palestinian rights and environmental groups. They include Palestine Solidarity Campaign, War on Want, 350.org, BankTrack, the National Committee of Bangladesh UK and Brazilian Women Against Fascism.

Ammori says:

The groups have vowed to continue campaigning together until HSBC divests fully from the fossil fuel industry and all companies providing military equipment used by Israel and in conflicts across the world.

Over in Spain, the banking giant Santander is facing some criticism over the botched hiring of top banker Andrea Orcel.

Orcel was initially lured from UBS to become Santander’s next CEO, only for the offer to be withdrawn, apparently because Orcel demanded compensation for the bonuses he’d leave behind at UBS...

My colleague Kalyeena Makortoff has the details:

A glimmer of hope shines in Europe’s struggling factory sector.

Industrial output across the eurozone fell by 0.2% month-on-month in February, according to Eurostat. That’s not too impressive, but it is rather better than the -0.6% expected.

Eurostat explains:

In the euro area in February 2019, compared with January 2019, production of energy fell by 3.0%, both capital goods and durable consumer goods by 0.4% and intermediate goods by 0.1%, while production of non-durable consumer goods rose by 0.9%.

China’s agricultural sector is being hit hard by an outbreak of swine fever which could force Beijing to order a mass cull of pigs.

More than 100 cases of swine fever have been reported across the country in recent months, forcing tens of thousands of animals to be slaughtered and some farms to close.

The highly infectious disease (which kills pigs but doesn’t harm humans) is driving up pork prices sharply. This is a major problem for the citizens of China, where half the world’s hogs are raised. Chinese inflation jumped to 2.3% in March, up from 1.5% in February, driven by higher food prices.

The Dutch bank Rabobank has predicted this morning that up to 200m pigs could be culled or die from being infected as African swine fever spreads through China.

This could force China to import a lot more pork from overseas, driving up prices worldwide. Some experts are warning, though, that there simply isn’t enough excess pork to fill the gap.

Even British consumers could be hit, argues the Daily Star tabloid this week:

The pick-up in Chinese credit growth is an encouraging sign for the global economy, says Ralf Preusser, global head of rates research at Merrill Lynch.

Speaking on Bloomberg TV, he explains that the rise in lending is more significant than the pick-up in exports (as the trade data is still disrupted by the Lunar New Year).

It suggest Beijing’s policy measures are working, which should feed through to other parts of the world economy soon. That should help the eurozone, where factory output slowed at the end of 2018.

Preusser says:

We’ve now had three months of good credit growth figures…. that’s finally an indication that the policy measures being taken are starting to bite.

That should give us hope in Europe too.

The latest Chinese money supply figures are also out today, and they show a sharp increase in credit availability as Beijing tried to stimulate growth.

Financial institutions offered 1.69tn yuan of new loans in March, more than the 1.25tn yuan predicted by economists.

Broad M2 money supply (basically how much money is in the system) increased 8.6%, the fastest pace since February 2018, according to Bloomberg.

Financial experts say it shows the People’s Bank of China tried to pump up the economy, which also explains why the Chinese stock market is up 30% so far this year.

Digging into the Chinese trade data, you can see that soybean imports have slumped by over 14% this year.

Beijing slapped a 25% tariff on US-grown soybeans last year, in retaliation for president Trump’s tariffs on Chinese goods. That has hurt American farmers badly, as Chinese companies turned to rival suppliers such as Brazil.

In another sign of economic weakness, car sales in China fell by 5.2% year-on-year in March.

That’s follows a 13.8% slide in February, and means auto demand has been dropping since last summer.

Customs spokesman Li Kuiwen has told a news conference that China expects to see mild growth in imports and exports in the current quarter (April to June), Reuters reports.

China’s total imports have now fallen for four months in a row, points out the Financial Times, a clear sign of economic stress.

The FT adds:

Julian Evans-Pritchard, senior China economist for Capital Economics, cautioned that the turnround [in March exports] was more likely a result of the fading effects of the lunar new year holiday, which distorts official data in January and February.

He added that exports were yet to recover from a sharp slowdown at the end of 2018.

“While a US-China trade deal looks increasingly within reach, the reversal of US tariffs would only provide a small boost to exports of around one to two per cent,” he said.

“With global growth set to remain weak in the coming quarters a strong rebound in exports therefore looks unlikely.”