Closing summary
Time for a quick recap.
Unexpectedly weak US job figures, and a shock tumble in Chinese exports, have reignited concerns that the global economy is weakening.
Just 20,00 new jobs were created across America in February, according to the closely-watched Non-Farm Payroll report. That’s much weaker than expected, and a whopping decline in January’s 311,000.
Some economists suggest that one-off factors such as bad weather, and the US government shutdown, are to blame. Others, though, fear that it shows America’s economy is losing momentum.
Such fears have also been stocked by the latest Chinese trade figures. Exports slumped by 20% in February, led by a tumble in sales to America (where tariffs appear to be dampening demand). Again, there may be reasons not to panic - such as the impact of the Lunar new year.
But anxiety helped to send shares down across the globe, with China’s stock market sliding by 4%. Europe’s main markets lost around 1%, in their worst week of the year so far.
In other news......
Norway’s huge sovereign wealth fund is to stop investing in companies which only search for and produce oil and gas; environmental campaigners wish the country was going further, though.
In the UK, rock star Liam Gallagher’s loss-making Pretty Green menswear brand has called in advisers to review options for the future of the business.
Ocado has been warned to expect a customer exodus, once it ditches Waitrose food in favour of M&S’s offering.
And finally, the lawyer representing Carlos Ghosn has apologised for smuggling the former Nissan chairman out of Tokyo’s detention centre dressed as a workman -- a ruse that surely fooled nobody (I didn’t even realise it was meant to be a disguise)
Good night, and have a lovely weekend. Back on Monday. GW
Oil has also had a bad session, with Brent crude dropping more than 2% to $64.83 per barrel.
That reflects concerns that the global economy is running out of juice.
A weaker tone for #Oil prices as worse than expected Chinese trade data renews concerns over economic slowdown,the small corrective rebound attempted yesterday by #CAD has been halted,w/a further losses likely if data disappoints.Get your update here: https://t.co/5ZsyqquRiO $CAD pic.twitter.com/e6oe6ZeEze
— DailyFX (@DailyFX) March 8, 2019
European stock markets have posted their biggest weekly fall of 2019.
The Stoxx 600 closed down 0.9% today, which means it’s lost around 1% this week. That’s not a major fall, of course, but it may show that the optimism that sent shares fizzing higher this year is fizzling out.
Associated Press have dug into the US jobs report:
The unemployment rate for most major demographic groups fell in February, with the rate for Hispanic and Latino Americans hitting a record low of 4.3%.
It wasn’t entirely good news. More Hispanic and Latino Americans stopped look for work, so they weren’t classified as unemployed. The government counts people as unemployed only if they are actively looking for a job. When fewer people seek a job, the unemployment rate often declines.
The New York Times’s Ben Casselman has spotted another concern -- the unemployment rate for black Americans has risen.
After falling to an all-time low last year, black unemployment has now risen sharply, to 7%. Not sure how much to read into it -- pretty volatile series -- but the big jump is concerning. pic.twitter.com/4TRyGF2gnD
— Ben Casselman (@bencasselman) March 8, 2019
The pound is ending the week on the wrong foot, dropping almost one eurocent to just below €1.16 tonight.
Brexit anxiety is weighing on sterling again, with no sign of a breakthrough between the the UK and the EU before the second Meaningful Vote on Theresa May’s deal.
Earlier today, May urge the EU to make concessions to get an agreement over the line.
EU negotiator Michel Barnier has since hit back, saying the Brussels doesn’t want to get into a ‘blame game’.
Barnier added that the UK can choose between a Northern Ireland-only backstop if a trade deal isn’t agreed, or one covering the whole UK. However, May has rejected the former option in the past, while parliament isn’t happy with being locked into the latter option.
Shorter @MichelBarnier
— Peter Foster (@pmdfoster) March 8, 2019
- We are not talking the blame here.
- The UK has clear choices. As this weeks talks show, they can't be fudged.
- It's the original NI-only backstop May rejected; or the all-UK one she negotiated.
- Stop looking for uncorns, just choose. #Brexit
EU's offer on the backstop in a nutshell: No border in the Irish sea now but a future UK government can decide there will be. Northern Ireland will be treated somewhat differently whatever.
— Adam Fleming (@adamfleming) March 8, 2019
Investors should keep a close eye on the US economy for further signs of economic weakness, says Ian Forrest, investment research analyst at The Share Centre.
Although the US has been in good economic shape for some there have been some small signs of weakness in recent data. Employment data is a lagging indicator but latest jobs data may be caused by one-off factors and investors should wait for further information to see if a trend develops.
It does add to growing signs of a slowdown in global growth following news from China and the ECB’s decision to restart its economic stimulus this week.
Stock markets on both sides of the Atlantic are solidly in the red right now.
The US Dow Jones down 150 points (-0.6%) and Britain’s FTSE 100 is off 42 points (also -0.6%, a pleasing symmetry).
Other European markets are showing deeper losses, as the slowdown in US job creation and the 20% decline in Chinese exports looms over markets.
David Madden, market analyst at CMC Markets UK, says the Chinese trade data has hurt mining stocks.
The week is set to finish on a negative note as a mixture of underwhelming Chinese trade figures and a dreadful headline US non-farm payrolls number weighed on sentiment.
China posted disappointing trade numbers overnight. Exports and imports declined by 20.7% and 4.8% respectively. The poor numbers added weight to the argument that the global economy is cooling down.
Gregory Daco of Oxford Economics also argues that today’s non-farm payroll paints too weak a picture.
He points out that combining January’s excellent report with February’s grim offering gives a more balanced picture, of a maturing jobs market.
Some perspective on Feb #Jobsreport. Employment is gradually moderating but not as much as signaled by Jan payrolls alone:
— Gregory Daco (@GregDaco) March 8, 2019
Goods : +25k in Jan-Feb versus +53k in 2018.
Services : +142k in Jan-Feb versus +163k in 2018
--> this is normal in a maturing labor market pic.twitter.com/93PCsgSsLC
"Very fluky, I wouldn't pay any attention to it to be honest with you," Trump advisor Larry Kudlow reacted to the recent jobs report which showed the worst month for job creation since September 2017. https://t.co/LGutFoxixb pic.twitter.com/s4wT1JhCFD
— CNBC (@CNBC) March 8, 2019
Larry Kudlow, the head of president Trump’s national economic council, says we shouldn’t give today’s non-farm payroll too much attention.
The small rise in job creation is “an absolute fluke’, he insist, pinning the blame on the weather, the Federal shutdown, the way workers and non-workers are classified.....
Instead of focusing on the meagre 20,000 jobs increase, Kudlow points to the “terrific wage gains”, with earnings up 3.4% year-on year.
Plus, with unemployment down to 3.8%, there are plenty of signs of a “very healthy economy” he tells Bloomberg.
Updated
Wall Street opens lower
Wall Street has opened lower, as investors get their heads around the news that just 20,000 new jobs were created in America last month, not the 180,000 they expected.
The Dow Jones industrial average is down 199 points or 0.8% in early trading, at 25,274, as jitters over the US economy hit confidence. The broader S&P 500 is down 0.8%, while the tech-focused Nasdaq has shed 1.1%.
Traders could also be worrying about the global economy; overnight, China shocked Asian markets by reporting a 20% plunge in exports last month, sending the Shanghai market reeling by 4%.
Democratic senator Elizabeth Warren has also shaken things up, with a call to break up tech company monopolies such as Google, Facebook and Amazon. Their shares are all down.
US jobs report: What the experts say
The slump in US job creation in February show that economic growth has slowed, and interest rates will stay on hold for longer, says Michael Pearce of Capital Economics.
The 20,000 gain in non-farm payrolls in February was well below consensus expectations of a 180,000 gain. That is not quite as bad as it looks, given that it followed an unusually strong 311,000 gain in January, but it’s clear that the labour market is now losing momentum.
Rupert Thompson, head of research at Kingswood, is also concerned that the US economy is weakening.
“Today’s US labour market data can only fuel market worries over the ongoing slowdown in global growth and increase the Fed’s inclination to stay on the sidelines over coming months.
While the much smaller than expected employment gain in February is no doubt in part just payback for the strong increase the previous month, it can only exacerbate worries about the slowdown in the US economy, particularly as forecasts for Q1 GDP growth are down to a mere 1% or so.
But Guy Foster, head of research at Brewin Dolphin, is more positive, pointing out that job creation is running at around 180,000 per month over the last quarter.:
Wage growth was strong, unemployment fell and on average the US still produced more than 180k new jobs over the last three months. All the signs here are that job creation was constrained by lack of workers not lack of opportunity.”
Before anyone panics too much, several experts are suggesting that the jobs report is a one-off.
Jared Bernstein, formerly chief economic advisor to vice-president Joe Biden, has tweeted that occasional ‘outliers’ aren’t uncommon in the non-farm payroll:
No, that topline payroll number (20,000 jobs in Feb) isn't missing a zero. It's an outlier--stuff happens with noisy, monthly data (Jan jobs: 311K!). Underlying trend over past 3-months (186K) provides more reliable take. pic.twitter.com/utUdRX0Y4w
— Jared Bernstein (@econjared) March 8, 2019
Another picture of "outliers" happen in payroll data. See 9/17, 14K jobs, and note what followed. To be clear, this could be the beginning of a downshift in pace of job growth--that wouldn't surprise me. But too soon to make that call. pic.twitter.com/RSiT2aXuRp
— Jared Bernstein (@econjared) March 8, 2019
Heather Long of the Washington Post also thinks it could be a blip:
Why did we only get 20,000 new #jobs in February?
— Heather Long (@byHeatherLong) March 8, 2019
1) It could be a blip (we often get 1 "meh" month a year)
2) Hiring was weak everywhere except health care & biz
-Construction hiring FELL by 31,000
-Almost no new jobs in leisure & hospitality, warehouses, finance or retail.
Ben Casselman of the New York Times blames the weather [several US cities suffered bitter cold and heavy snow]
Further supporting the weather theory: Zero job growth in leisure & hospitality in Feb. pic.twitter.com/xYkB748fKV
— Ben Casselman (@bencasselman) March 8, 2019
The slowdown in US job creation between January and February is one of the biggest swings ever:
The difference of nearly 300k between February and January payrolls was the steepest month on month fall since June 2010, and the 3rd biggest downward swing in 20 years. pic.twitter.com/9OR0nILN3F
— Jamie McGeever (@ReutersJamie) March 8, 2019
(In June 2010, the non-farm payroll shrank by 125,000 after growing by 433,000 in May. So today’s figures could have been worse....)
There is some good news in February’s jobs report -- wage growth has picked up.
Average hourly earnings rose by 0.4% month-on-month, up from January’s 0.1%. That pushed average earnings up by 3.4% year-on-year, up from 3.1%.
The jobs report also shows that several sectors shed jobs in February:
- 31,000 jobs were lost in construction last month
- 32,000 jobs were lost at goods-producing firms
- 6,000 retail jobs were cut
However, services sector employment jumped by 57,000.
Financial experts are reeling from the unexpectedly weak jobs report:
Jobs report truly bad.
— Daniel Lacalle (@dlacalle_IA) March 8, 2019
US adds 20,000 jobs in February vs 180k expected, jobless rate drops to 3.8%. I expected a good number.
Wow -- this is an awful jobs report. The expectation was for +180,000 jobs and the actual figure was only +20,000. https://t.co/8mLnYupAwA
— Brian Klaas (@brianklaas) March 8, 2019
Despite the extremely weak jobs number, America’s unemployment rate has actually fallen again to just 3.8%, from 3.9% last month.
US jobs report MASSIVELY misses forecasts
NEWSFLASH: Just 20,000 new jobs were created in America last month, in a major shock to the markets.
That’s a HUGE miss -- Wall Street has expected around 180,000 new jobs to have been added to the Non-Farm Payroll.
That’s a massive tumble compared to January, when 311,000 new jobs were created (that’s revised up from the first estimate of 304,000).
So what went wrong? Maybe the US government shutdown has caused more disruption than thought? Or maybe the US economy weakened more than we thought?
More to follow!
Greenpeace: Norway's divestment move isn't enough
Charlie Kronick, Oil Campaigner for Greenpeace UK, says Norway hasn’t gone far enough:
“This partial divestment from oil and gas is welcome, but not enough to mitigate Norway’s exposure to both global oil and gas prices and the wider financial ramifications of climate change. However, it does send a clear signal that companies betting on the expansion of their oil and gas businesses present an unacceptable risk, not only to the climate but also to investors.
While BP and Shell are excluded from the current divestment proposal, they must now recognise that if they continue to spend billions chasing new fossil fuels, they are doomed.”
Norway’s finance minister has confirmed that major energy companies such as BP and Shell won’t be affected by the new ban on investments through the Norwegian sovereign wealth fund.
Speaking on Bloomberg, Siv Jensen argues that these integrated companies are spending more on renewable energy technologies, and can play an important role in a low-emissions future.
Jensen says:
We see that the investments are going up. It’s an interesting market and it would be sad if the pension fund could not invest in them in the future.
She also denied that a “political compromise” had prevented Norway from a more sweeping ban on energy stocks, insisting that the decision was based on expert advice.
Updated
European stock markets have dropped deeper into the red as lunchtime arrives in the City.
The FTSE 100 is now down almost 1%, as global growth worries hit stocks. BP and Royal Dutch Shell are among the fallers (even though they may not be directly hit by Norway’s energy move, as they’re ‘integrated’ energy firms).
Catherine Howarth, chief executive of campaigning group ShareAction, says Norway’s decision is part of a wider trend, as investors hang up on the fossil fuel industry.
“Norway’s announcement is further evidence that investors are growing increasingly dissatisfied with oil exploration and production companies.
Institutional investors are withdrawing their capital from oil and gas companies on the grounds that quicker-than-expected growth in clean energy and associated regulation is making oil and gas business models highly vulnerable.
This announcement will put pressure on investors to ramp up their engagement with integrated oil majors ahead of the AGM season.”
Green party MP Caroline Lucas has hailed Norway’s move:
Hugely significant move from Norway.
— Caroline Lucas (@CarolineLucas) March 8, 2019
We can't avoid climate catastrophe & keep building new fossil fuel infrastructure. No new oil rigs. No new pipelines.
Now Parliament's pension fund must urgently follow Norway's lead & ditch millions in dirty energy investments. @MP_Divest https://t.co/p9AVek2t1k
Here’s more reaction to Norway’s decision to divest from ‘pure play’ oil and gas firms:
Woah, big news. Norway's sovereign wealth fund, the world's biggest, is going to divest from oil and gas companies, Norwegian govt decides. https://t.co/AIjmwNzAJL (background: https://t.co/1f5BkSLgMu)
— Adam Vaughan (@adamvaughan_uk) March 8, 2019
So it looks like the Norway move only applies to E&P and upstream companies. So BP, Shell etc are spared... for now.
— Neil Hume (@humenm) March 8, 2019
Norwegian government approves #divestment of world's biggest sovereign wealth fund from pure oil and gas exploration companies. https://t.co/IU7SQPDZ0H This is huge. If the O&G companies can't see this particular piece of writing on the wall, they deserve to go under.
— Jeremy Leggett (@JeremyLeggett) March 8, 2019
Norway’s decision feels like a landmark victory for climate change campaigners.
However, it appears that its sovereign wealth fund will still be able to hold some energy assets, but not firms focused purely on finding and exploiting fossil fuels.
Bloomberg says:
Norway took a half step toward divesting oil and gas stocks in its wealth fund, saying it approved selling pure exploration companies while sparing the biggest integrated producers.
BREAKING: World's biggest sovereign wealth fund in Norway to divest from pure oil & gas companies https://t.co/AHoHphnAe7
— Doug Parr (@doug_parr) March 8, 2019
Shares in energy companies have fallen, following Norway’s decision to remove oil and gas producers, and explorers, from its $1tn wealth fund.
#Norway will take upstream oil companies out of its wealth fund. The STOXX Europe 600 Oil & Gas Index
— Adveith Nair (@Adveith) March 8, 2019
right now pic.twitter.com/45MCGguKzJ
Norway's wealth fund to ditch some energy investments
Newsflash: The world’s biggest sovereign wealth fund is to stop investing in energy companies such as oil and gas producers.
Norway’s government has announced that companies classified as exploration and production companies within the energy sector should be excluded from its sovereign wealth fund, which manages more than $1trn of assets.
The plan is means to protect Norway’s economy from the risk of low oil prices, says Norway’s Minister of Finance, Siv Jensen.
She says:
The objective is to reduce the vulnerability of our common wealth to a permanent oil price decline.
Norway’s sovereign wealth fund was created to ensure that the rewards from the 1980s oil boom would benefit the country over the long term (unlike in the UK, where they help fund the Thatcher government’s spending and tax cuts).
The finance ministry says that exploration and production companies will be phased out from the Fund “gradually over time”, adding:
The oil industry will be an important and major industry in Norway for many years to come.
The state’s revenues from the continental shelf are, as a general rule, a consequence of the profitability of exploration and production activities. Therefore this measure is about diversification.
Norway's SWF currently holds:
— David Sheppard (@OilSheppard) March 8, 2019
BP - 2.31%
Shell - 2.45%
Total - 2.02%
Eni - 1.59%
Chevron - 0.99%
ConocoPhillips - 1.0%
ExxonMobil - 0.94%#OOTT
Updated
The 20% tumble in Chinese exports comes just days after Beijing cut its growth target for 2019.
Fiona Cincotta, senior market analyst at www.cityindex.co.uk, says anxiety over China is weighing on the markets today:
It’s the morning after and the FTSE is struggling. The London gauge is down 0.7% after the ECB’s grim assessment of the state of the European economy yesterday and the index’s chance of recovery has been dealt a further blow by data pointing to an increasingly serious slowdown in China.
The chance of an economic turnaround in Europe is looking increasingly unlikely if China continues to slow down. The country has already lowered its growth target for 2019 this week to between 6% and 6.5%, the lowest level in almost 30 years, and this morning’s data added to the unsettling picture showing that February exports from the Asian powerhouse plummeted by 20%.
Although February is traditionally the weakest month for China’s foreign trade because the country closes down for a week during the local New Year festivities, this year’s decline has been exacerbated both by a slowdown in the domestic economy and the ongoing trade dispute with the US.
Hopes that the US and China will reach a trade deal have also take a knock.
Overnight, the US ambassador to China, Terry Branstad, revealed that there’s still no date for a proposed summit between presidents Donald Trump and Xi Jinping. That could dash hopes of a meeting - and a trade deal - before the end of this month.
The FT says:
The two sides had been discussing a meeting at Mar-a-Lago on March 27 or March 28, immediately following Mr Xi’s planned trip to Europe. Those dates are now off.
“A date hasn’t been finalized” for a meeting between President Trump and Chinese leader Xi Jinping, Terry Branstad, the U.S. envoy to Beijing, said in an interview with WSJ. He said preparations for such a meeting aren’t yet under way either. https://t.co/PQDHSCHQSF via @WSJ
— Bhavan Jaipragas 八万 (@jbhavan) March 8, 2019
In London, shares in struggling department store chain Debenhams have jumped after retail magnate Mike Ashley launched a bid to seize control.
Ashley stunned the City last night by declaring that he wants to be appointed to Debenhams board to run the company, and would step down from his current role running Sports Direct.
Sports Direct owns almost 30% of Debenhams, which is fighting to restructure its finances in the face of sliding falling sales. Ashley’s plan is to oust the entire board, apart from finance director, Rachel Osborne, and steer the business himself.
Debenhams says it’s “disappointed” to see Mike Ashley parking his tanks on their lawn, adding that discussions to address its funding needs are “well advanced”.
But Neil Wilson of Markets.com reckons Sports Direct will succeed in taking control, one way or another...
As far as the restructuring of its balance sheet goes, lenders will want to know quickly what the outcome is, what the strategy is and what management team they should be dealing with.
One wonders why Ashley does not simply go the obvious route and bid for Debenhams and combine into the House of Fraser rump. The rationale for tying these companies together is clearly compelling. If the coup fails, he will surely launch a takeover. If it succeeds he will be able to tie up the operational side and shore up finances from his own resources. Whether this boardroom coup fails or not, there is surely only one outcome from all of this: Mike Ashley will get what he wants.
Analyst and journalist Louise Cooper is also concerned by the Chinese trade data:
Asia stocks dealt body blow as China exports tank
— Louise Cooper (@Louiseaileen70) March 8, 2019
Monthly data is lumpy but even so Chinese exports down >20% is large https://t.co/cRs92wHSjc
Many experts are blaming the ongoing trade war between Washington and Beijing for the slide in Chinese trade:
China's huge export industry has suffered its worst month in three years, hurt by the trade war with the United States and a slowing global economy https://t.co/2RxSMCEUvS
— CNN International (@cnni) March 8, 2019
On top of sluggish Eurozone, Chinese exports collapsed in February partly because of trade war with US but more importantly because of the global slowdown. Exports plunged an astonishing 21pc year-on-year last month.
— Andrew Neil (@afneil) March 8, 2019
China posted weak foreign trade for February; some is due to the production shutdowns around the Chinese new year. But very clear slowdown in export to the US, even adjusted for seasonalities. Trade war is visible in the data #macrobond pic.twitter.com/piiBlWrwG1
— Ulrik Harald Bie (@UlrikBie) March 8, 2019
Sabrina Khanniche, senior economist at Pictet Asset Management, blames weaker foreign demand for the slide in German factory orders.
In #Germany, factory orders dropped.
— Sabrina Khanniche (@skhanniche) March 8, 2019
-The annual pace remains depressed on foreign demand
-BUT a trough has been reached.
-The normalization regarding the one-off factors is under way.
-BUT the uncertainty remains painful! pic.twitter.com/WpaqYVgUUe
German factory orders slide unexpectedly
In another blow, German factory orders have fallen unexpectedly.
Destatis reports that factory orders declined by 2.6% in January compared with December, and were 3.9% lower than in January 2018.
One upside - December’s data has been revised higher, but it’s still concerning.
#Manufacturing in January 2019: New orders -2.6% seasonally adjusted on the previous month. https://t.co/WfRJNQEhqr pic.twitter.com/xMpiz1GiEu
— Destatis news (@destatis_news) March 8, 2019
Germany's factory orders unexpectedly fall https://t.co/0VFsk0XFNd pic.twitter.com/5rhifDOHTe
— Bloomberg (@business) March 8, 2019
Naeem Aslam of Think Markets says it bolsters the European Central Bank’s decision to crank up its stimulus programme again yesterday.
The German economic data was rotten and it has left a bitter taste in investors’ mouth.
Germany is the economic engine of the Eurozone and it is known for its strong export and manufacturing. The German Jan factory order data came in at -2.6% by missing the forecast of 0.5%.
This really shows why the ECB made such a dovish decision by introducing the TLTROs, and at the same time, it cut the growth and inflation forecast.
European stock markets have also been hit by the gloomy trade data from China.
The FTSE 100 is down 47 points, or 0.6%, with mining stocks among the top fallers (they’ll suffer if global growth stumbles).
Across Europe, nearly every sector has fallen. Carmakers, who are also relying on China’s economy holding up, are the biggest fallers.
News that China’s exports plunged by a fifth last month went down extremely badly on the Shanghai stock markets.
The benchmark CSI 300 has slumped by 4%, their biggest fall of the year, as traders fretted that China’s economy is weakening.
Shanghai stocks having their worst day since Oct last year pic.twitter.com/yo19DhU2B9
— Mike Bird (@Birdyword) March 8, 2019
Updated
Even stripping out the impact of the Lunar new year, China’s economy has weakened clearly this year.
If you combine January and February’s trade data, Chinese exports are down 4.6% year-on-year while imports are down 3.1%.
Sales to the US have absolutely tanked - down 38% in February alone - as Chinese firms are hurt by US tariffs.
By country, China 🇨🇳exports to (Jan + Feb):
— Trinh (@Trinhnomics) March 8, 2019
USA 🇺🇸-35.1% (largest market) 🤢🤮
South Korea 🇰🇷-13.7%🤢
ASEAN -8.2%🤢
Singapore 🇸🇬-4.7%🤢
Japan 🇯🇵-0.7%🤢
UK🇬🇧 -5.2%🤢
Italy 🇮🇹-1.1%🤢
France 🇫🇷+42.2% 👏🏻
Brazil 🇧🇷+33.5%👏🏻
Canada 🇨🇦+35%
Australia 🇦🇺+5.1%👏🏻
Malaysia 🇲🇾 +5.6%👏🏻 pic.twitter.com/nkNP9EoamC
This chart shows the scale of China’s export tumble:
Updated
Introduction: China export plunge spooks market
Good morning, and welcome to our rolling coverage of the world economy, the financial markets, the eurozone and business.
Fears over the health of China’s economy have intensified after a worrying plunge in exports.
Trade data released overnight shows that Chinese exports plunged by over 20% in dollar terms year-on-year in February, much worse than the 4.8% economists had expected.
Imports also slid, dropping by 5.2% compared to forecasts of a 1.4% decline.
Such a sharp fall in exports suggests Chinese companies are feeling the full force of the recent global slowdown, and that the tariffs imposed by Donald Trump on exports to America are now biting.
It’s also possible that the Lunar New Year distorted the figures, as many firms shut down to allow staff to take holidays or travel home.
But can that really account for China’s trade surplus shrinking to just $4.12bn, down from over $39bn in January, and significantly below the $26.38bn economics forecast?
#China export data for Feb was pretty ugly at -20.7%y/y. The surprise Jan rise turns out to be nothing more than front-loading ahead of Lunar New Year and probably take advantage of the tariff truce. New export orders show hopeful signs. But we need the trade deal concluded fast. pic.twitter.com/FKjrMMyxsR
— Khoon Goh (@Khoon_Goh) March 8, 2019
Julian Evans-Pritchard, senior China economist at Capital Economics, says seasonal distortions can’t be solely blamed - the global slowdown is also responsible.
“The upshot is that today’s downbeat data provide further evidence that global demand is cooling and remains consistent with subdued domestic demand.
“A row back in U.S. tariffs would provide a mild boost to exports but not enough to offset the broader external headwinds. Meanwhile, with policy stimulus unlikely to put a floor beneath growth until the second half of the year, imports will remain under pressure in the near-term, ” he added.
This comes just a day after the European Central Bank slashed its growth forecasts, and announced fresh loans to eurozone banks in an attempt to stimulate the economy.
Stocks slid in China after the trade data was released, and European markets are expected to open lower too.
Risk off this morning as Asian stocks shuddered lower on Friday after shockingly weak export data from China heightened market fears about a global economic slowdown, a day after European policymakers slashed growth forecasts for the bloc. https://t.co/6EJNxz57q5
— Sigma Squawk (@SigmaSquawk) March 8, 2019
Also coming up today
The latest US jobs report is likely to show that job creation dropped last month. Economists predict the Non-Farm Payroll rose by around 180,000, down on January’s impressive 304,000 new jobs.
Primary Dealer #NFPguesses
— Anthony Barton (@ABartonMacro) March 8, 2019
Natwest 235K
Jefferies 215K
SocGen 215K
BoFAML 210K
Scotia 210K
Barx 200K
RBC 200K
DB 195K
TD 190K
Citi 185K
HSBC 185K
UBS 181K
Daiwa 180K
BNP 175K
C Suisse 175K
JPM 175K
Mizuho 175K
BMO 170K
Nomura 170K
WF 160K
Goldman 150K
MS 141K
Dealer Median: 183K
Updated