Graeme Wearden 

US ‘plans next steps’ after trade talks with China end – as it happened

Rolling coverage of the latest economic and financial news, as hopes of a ceasefire in the trade war between Washington and Beijing boost stocks
  
  

A South Korean dealer at the KEB Hana Bank in Seoul, South Korea.
A South Korean dealer at the KEB Hana Bank in Seoul, South Korea. Photograph: Jeon Heon-Kyun/EPA

And finally, Wall Street has racked up its fourth day of gains in a row.

Investors shrugged off the news that president Trump had walked out of a meeting with congressional leaders over the shutdown.....

....clinging instead to hopes that the US and China are making headway in their trade talks.

The S&P 500 gained 0.4% to around 2,585. The Dow Jones Industrial Average finished 91 points higher (also +0.4%) to 23,878, while the technology-heavy Nasdaq gained 0.9%.

Goodnight! GW

Back in New York, shares are holding onto their earlier gains - after it emerged that some US central bankers argued against last month’s interest rate hike.

The minutes of the Federal Reserve’s December meeting, released this afternoon, showed that a few officials pushed for a pause.

They argued that weak inflation readings allowed the central bank “some latitude to wait and see” how economic conditions developed, given financial market tensions and worries over the global economic outlook.

Such dovish inclinations may indicate the Fed will be reluctant to raise interest rates in 2019 (although it all depends on the data!).

Still, it’s enough to keep the Dow 149 points higher in late trading at 23,937, a rise of around 0.6%.

FTSE closes at five-week high

Boom! Britain’s blue-chip index of top shares has closed at its highest level since 5th December, helped by trade war optimism.

The FTSE 100 closed 45 point higher at 6906, a gain of 0.66%.

UK housebuilder Taylor Wimpey ended the day as the top FTSE 100 riser, after it reassured investors that current trading is solid.

Most other European markets have also posted gains, with France’s CAC up 1% and Germany’s DAX gaining 0.9%. Stocks are also higher in Wall Street.

Optimism that the US and China are inching towards a trade deal is rife.......but it may also be over the top. Robert Lighthizer’s statement makes it clear that a deal hasn’t been signed off yet.

John Higgins of Capital Economics fears that markets will fall back soon:

The rebound in global equity prices since last Thursday has coincided with growing optimism that the US and China are about to strike a trade deal. But that would probably only give equity prices a small and temporary extra boost, given the prospects for demand in the world’s two largest economies.

To re-cap, equity prices have recovered across the board since last Thursday. In local currency terms, MSCI’s USA Index has risen by roughly 5%; its World ex USA Index (of equities in other developed economies) by 3%; and its Emerging Markets Index by 2%. This is a big change from the prior three months, when the indices fell by about 16%, 13% and 8%, respectively.

The recovery in equity prices appears to have been partly driven by the news about the trade talks this week in Beijing. Expectations were low coming into the talks, due to a lack of high-level representation from the US and China. So bullish noises from President Trump about the prospect of a deal has had ample scope to buoy sentiment. Clearly, equity prices could get a further lift if there is some positive announcement in the coming days. But we would expect any boost to be small, as well as more than unwound, during 2019.

Carney: Yuan coud become new reserve currency

Speaking of China, Bank of England Governor Mark Carney has suggested that the renminbi could become a new reserve currency, alongside the US dollar.

Speaking on an online web forum on the future of money, Carney said:

“As the world re-orders, this disconnect between the real and financial is likely to reduce, and in the process other reserve currencies may emerge. In the first instance, I would expect these will be existing national currencies, such as the RMB [renminbi]”.

Carney has also fielded several questions about digital currencies, and suggested the Bank of England could issue its own version (a central bank digital currency).

He says:

The Bank has an open mind about the eventual development of a CBDC and has an active research and pilot programme dedicated to it. That said, given current technological shortcomings in distributed ledger a true, widely available reliable CBDC is still a long-term prospect.

You can see the Q&A online here.

The early rally in New York is slightly fizzling out as traders digest the US trade representative’s statement on the China trade talks:

In London, the FTSE 100 is still up 50 point at 6910, a five-week high.

Here’s the full statement from the US Trade Representative on this week’s talks with China (it’s also online here):

On January 7-9, an official delegation from the United States led by Deputy U.S. Trade Representative Jeffrey Gerrish held meetings in Beijing with Chinese officials to discuss ways to achieve fairness, reciprocity, and balance in trade relations between our two countries. The officials also discussed the need for any agreement to provide for complete implementation subject to ongoing verification and effective enforcement.

The meetings were held as part of the agreement reached by President Donald J. Trump and President Xi Jinping in Buenos Aires to engage in 90 days of negotiations with a view to achieving needed structural changes in China with respect to forced technology transfer, intellectual property protection, non-tariff barriers, cyber intrusions and cyber theft of trade secrets for commercial purposes, services, and agriculture. The talks also focused on China’s pledge to purchase a substantial amount of agricultural, energy, manufactured goods, and other products and services from the United States.

The United States officials conveyed President Trump’s commitment to addressing our persistent trade deficit and to resolving structural issues in order to improve trade between our countries.

The delegation will now report back to receive guidance on the next steps.

More snap reaction:

Instant reaction: No trade deal yet

Reading the USTR’s statement, it’s clear that China and America have been talking about the big issues at the heart of their trade dispute.

That’s encouraging...but three days of talks, however intensive, haven’t (yet) delivered the deal that both sides are hoping for.

Robert Lighthizer, the US trade representative, seems to be signalling that the battle isn’t over.

Not a huge surprise - trade wars are rarely as ‘easy to win’ as Donald Trump tweeted 10 month ago.

Here’s some snap reaction:

US issues statement over trade talks

Breaking! America’s trade negotiators have just released a statement following their three-day talks in Beijing.

The Office of the US Trade Representative (USTR) says that the talks “discussed ways to achieve fairness, reciprocity and balance” in trade relations between the two powers, and the need for “effective enforcement” of any deal.

The USTR added that talks focused on China’s pledge to buy “a substantial amount” of energy, manufactured foods and agricultural products from the US (to narrow the trade gap between them).

They also covered “structural changes” to China’s trade policies, to protect US firms’ intellectual property and prevent technology being transferred to Chinese firms.

The USTR will now “report back” to the White House, and seek guidance on its next steps.

Updated

The FTSE 100’s rally this week will bring welcome relief to investors, who suffered as the blue-chip index tumbled by 12% last year.

And as this chart shows, the Footsie is still roughly its value a decade ago, after it was driven down to just 3,500 points after the financial crisis.

Ding ding. Wall Street is rallying in early trading, sending the Dow Jones industrial average up by over 0.5% (130 points) to 23917.

Could deal be announced at Davos?

Our economics editor, Larry Elliott, suspects that Donald Trump has a cunning plan, to announce a trade deal with China at the World Economic Forum in Switzerland in two weeks time.

He writes:

The way that trade talks work is that the hard graft is done at official level so that 99% of a deal is concluded before political leaders become involved. Significantly, talks between Trump and China’s vice-president, Wang Qishan, are due to take place at the World Economic Forum (WEF) in Davos later this month – an ideal place to declare that the trade war is over.

In a sense, it is strange that Trump has agreed to be the headline act in Davos for a second straight year because his message to his political base is that he has no time for the “globalisers” who make the annual pilgrimage to the Swiss Alps.

However, Trump is a showman. He loved being the centre of attention in Davos last year and would like nothing better than to announce to all the free traders at the WEF that his hard-nosed protectionist approach had paid off.

A salient point:

With European indices still up over 1% today, the markets are showing confidence that China and the US are making progress in their trade dispute.

Karen Ward, chief market strategist at J.P. Morgan Asset Management, has made timely point -- the US and China are a long way apart, and it will take a major breakthrough to end their dispute.

She told CNBC:

I think (the deal) would have to be extremely far-reaching for the markets to breath an enormous sigh of relief,”

“I don’t think, unfortunately, that (the trade war) is something that will disappear from our horizon for the full year>”

After three days of gains, Wall Street is expected to rise further when trading begins in under 90 minutes.

Entrepreneur Elon Musk has been doing his bit for US-China relations this week.

Musk’s electric car maker, Tesla, broke ground on a new factory at Shanghai this week - its first one outside the States.

Beijing’s top economic official, Premier Li Keqiang, met Musk in the Great Hall of the People, and wished him the best of luck in China:

“We hope you can get a firm foothold and expand the market.

We hope your company can become an in-depth participant in China’s opening and a promoter of the stability of Chinese-U.S. relations.”

An end to the US-China trade war can’t some soon enough for some American farmers.

Exports of soybeans slumped last autumn after Beijing imposed tariffs on imported US goods. That hurt America’s agriculture sector badly, as soybean prices fell to 10-year lows.

Washington responded to farmers’ suffering by launching the Market Facilitation Program, a multi-billion dollar subsidy programme. But now there’s a new problem – the ongoing US shutdown means payments aren’t being made!

Heads-up: China and the US will both release statements about this week’s trade talks on Thursday, according to Hu Xijin, editor of Global Times.

That’s another indication that some progress has been achieved this week (but probably not a final deal, if Donald Trump is planning talks in Davos).

Hu has also heard that negotiations were “pleasant and candid”.

After three hours of trading, the FTSE 100 is sitting comfortably higher at 6,962 points, up 66 points or almost 1%.

That’s its highest level since 5th December 2018, clawing back the heavy losses suffered late last yet (when the Footsie hit a 28-month low of 6,536).

Virtually every sector is up, led by tech firms and consumer-focused companies.

Housebuilders continue to rally too, following Taylor Wimpey’s upbeat statement to the City (see 9.30am)

The upbeat noises from Beijing about progress at the US-China trade talks continues to boost risk appetite.

Vincent-Freědeěric Mivelaz of Swissquote Bank says further progress could come at the World Economic Forum later this month:

Equities are rallying on optimism that the US-China trade dispute might be resolved. A scheduled two days of negotiation was extended by a third day, suggesting things are going well. The arrival of US officials from energy, agriculture and treasury departments is a good sign that discussions are becoming more explicit on topics such as intellectual property and trade deficit.

The next step will come at the 2019 World Economic Forum in Davos (22 January), where US President Donald Trump and China Vice-President Wang Qishan will meet.

Updated

Some good news: unemployment in the euro area has hit a new 10-year low.

The jobless rate dipped to 7.9% in November, down from 8.0% in October 2018 and from 8.7% in November 2017.

That still leaves just over 13m people out of work in the euro area, and almost 16.5m in the wider EU (where unemployment is its lowest since Eurostat started counting in 2000).

Eurostat says:

Among the Member States, the lowest unemployment rates in November 2018 were recorded in Czechia (1.9%), Germany (3.3%) and the Netherlands (3.5%). The highest unemployment rates were observed in Greece (18.6% in September 2018) and Spain (14.7%).

Compared with a year ago, the unemployment rate fell in all Member States except Estonia where it remained stable. The largest decreases were registered in Croatia (from 10.0% to 7.8%), Greece (from 20.8% to 18.6% between September 2017 and September 2018) and Spain (from 16.5% to 14.7%).

Chinese car sales fall

Newsflash: Sales of cars in China fell last year, for the first time in at least 20 years.

The China Passenger Car Association has reported that car sales fell by 6% in 2018 to 22.7 million units last year.

Such a sharp annual decline is a strong signal that Chinese consumers are being hit by the slowing economy, and by the tariffs imposed by the US last year.

The 25% slump on the Chinese stock market in 2018 will also have hit many consumers in the pocket.

It will fuel concerns that China could suffer a hard landing, unless Beijing takes steps to boost domestic demand and there is a significant breakthrough in the trade talks.

Sales will also have suffered from the ending of government subsidies for vehicle purchases last year.

UK baker chain Greggs is among the top risers in London, up 7.5%, after posting sparkling results.

Fresh from launching a vegan sausage roll to a (mostly) grateful nation, Greggs has hikes its pre-tax profit forecasts from £86m to £88m after a strong end to trading last year.

My colleague Angela Monaghan explains how bumper sales of festive bake and mince pies boosted sales:

Greggs has prided itself on adapting products to suit changing consumer tastes, and said its latest creation, the £1 vegan sausage roll, was proving popular with “a broad range of customers”.

The vegan sausage roll hit Greggs’ shelves last week, coinciding with the beginning of Veganuary, a growing movement that encourages people to embrace plant-based diets during January. It is on sale in 950 of Greggs’s 1,950 UK shops.

Greggs has increased sales and profits despite a tough backdrop for high street retailers struggling with rising business costs, a switch to online spending and faltering consumer confidence as Brexit looms.

More here:

Plus a bonus poem:

Markets are doing their best to climb out of the hole they tumbled into late last year, says Russ Mould, investment director at AJ Bell.

The blue chip FTSE 100 index is up 2.6% year-to-date which sends hope to investors that market weakness seen in the second half of 2018 may not necessarily turn into a sustained downward trend.

“Housebuilders, tobacco, miners, engineers and retailers all look strong on the London market on Wednesday. The rest of Europe and Asia also pushed ahead, following similar strength on the US market last night.

“Hopes of progress with US-China trade talks are certainly giving markets support, so too a lack of major shocks among corporate trading updates in general.

UK housebuilder Taylor Wimpey is the top riser on the FTSE 100 this morning, up over 5%.

It reassured the City this morning that business looks solid, saying:

“We continue to see solid forward sales indicators and start the year with a very strong order book.

Analysts have warned that housebuilders would suffer badly from a no-deal Brexit, which could crush consumer confidence, hit growth and potentially force interest rates up to protect the pound.

Shares in European car makers are jumping, with Daimler up 3%, Volkswagen, up 2.75% and BMW up 2%.

They’ve all suffered from recent US-China tensions; last month, China reportedly began cutting tariffs on American-built cars.

Bloomberg: Trump wants deal to boost markets

President Trump is desperate to strike a trade deal with China to drive stocks up again, Bloomberg reports.

They say:

According to people familiar with the matter, Trump’s willingness to cut a deal with Beijing is driven in large part by his desire for markets to rally.

He publicly said he’s eager to make a deal that benefits both sides while also stressing that China’s slowing economy and falling stock market signal the country is more desperate than the U.S. for a speedy outcome.

Having made Wall Street’s performance a key measure of his performance, Trump will not have enjoyed last month’s rout -- the worst December since 1931.

2019 is starting brighter.

Today’s rally has driven the FTSE 100 to a four-week high, clawing back December’s losses.

Trade deal hopes have sent European stocks higher in early trading.

In London, the FTSE 100 index of top blue-chip shares is up 45 points (0.7%), and there are similar gains in Paris and Frankfurt.

European traders are picking up the baton from their Asia-Pacific colleagues:

Mike van Dulken of Accendo Markets says the City is cheered by “hopes of a resolution to the [US-China trade] dispute before the end of a 90 day truce at the end of February”.

US: Talks went 'just fine'

US officials have also confirmed that the trade negotiations with China are concluding.....and even hinted that they went well.

Reuters has the details:

The U.S. trade delegation in Beijing is wrapping up meetings with Chinese officials and will return to the United States later on Wednesday, a U.S. official said.

Ted McKinney, U.S. Under Secretary of Agriculture for Trade and Foreign Agricultural Affairs, made the comments to reporters at the delegation’s hotel.

“I think they went just fine,” McKinney said of the talks. He declined to answer further questions.

US-China trade talks conclude

Good morning, and welcome to our rolling coverage of the world economy, the financial markets, the eurozone and business.

Hopes of a trade agreement between the US and China are gripping the markets today.

After three days of negotiations, talks between the two sides in Beijing have just concluded - and there’s real optimism of a breakthrough.

China’s Foreign Ministry spokesman Lu Kang has just told a daily news briefing on Wednesday that trade talks have concluded and the results will be released very soon.

Lu added that the “longer-than-expected” talks show that China is very serious about getting a deal. Officials had expected to wrap up on Tuesday, but surprised observers by returning to the negotiating table for a third day.

The two countries need to reach a deal before March 1, else the US will hike tariffs on some $200 billion in Chinese goods from 10% to 25%.

Hopes of a deal pushed Asian stock markets to their highest levels in three weeks today. China’s Shanghai Composite index is up 1%, as is Japan’s Topix, while Hong Kong’s Hang Seng has jumped by 2%.

Investors are also cheered by reports that Beijing plans new policies to boost domestic demand.

Elsa Lignos of Royal Bank of Canada explains:

Markets have more sugar hits to cheer overnight, helping equities claw back more of their December losses.

Reports that China is planning fresh measures to boost domestic consumption have sent shares in large Chinese carmakers and appliance manufacturers higher, though details are scarce.

The UK’s FTSE 100 is expected to open 60 points higher, up 0.8%, having gained 50 points yesterday.

Also coming up today

There’s a flurry of Christmas trading updates from UK retailers, including supermarket chain Sainsbury’s, bakers Greggs and Majestic Wine.

Sainsbury’s seem to have missed expectations, with like-for-like sales down over 1%.

Economists will also be digesting new trade data from Germany, following a worrying drop in industrial output yesterday.

The agenda

  • 7am GMT: German trade figures for November
  • 3.30pm GMT: Bank of England governor Mark Carney holds an online Q&A

Updated

 

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