Summary: Pound gets the Brexit blues again
Following one of its most volatile trading sessions in the last few volatile years, sterling seems to have settled around $1.255 tonight, a level last seen in April 2017.
So here’s a summary:
The pound has dropped to its lowest level for almost two years amid the growing risks to the British economy from political paralysis over Brexit and on a no-deal scenario.
Theresa May’s decision to delay the parliamentary vote on her Brexit plan to avoid an embarrassing defeat for the government sent sterling tumbling by more than 1.3% against the dollar and by more than 1.1% against the euro on the foreign exchanges.
The pound slumped below $1.26 to the lowest level since April 2017 after the prime minister said her Brexit plan would have been rejected by a “significant margin” in a Commons vote pencilled in for Tuesday. Sterling was worth $1.2565 against the dollar late on Monday and €1.1050 against the euro.
Neil Wilson, the chief market analyst at the financial trading company Markets.com, said the pound had experienced one of its worst [days] since the 2016 referendum, adding that “the government [had] left investors completely in the dark about what happens next”.
That’s probably all from us today.
Our Politics Live blog is still tracking all the drama at Westminster:
Good night, and thanks for reading and commenting. GW
After a rough day’s trading, Britain’s FTSE 250 index has lost almost 2% of its value today.
The FTSE 250, which contains UK-focused firms, shed 351 points to 17492. Holiday firm Thomas Cook shed almost 14%, housebuilder Crest Nicholson shed 8.5%, transpor group Stagecoach lost 8.3%, and Domino’s Pizza lost 8%.
The FTSE 100, packed with internationally-focused companies, shed 53 points or 0.8% - close to last-week’s two-week low.
Fiona Cincotta, senior market analyst at City Index, says shares were hit by Theresa May’s humiliating u-turn today.
The vote was meant to be taking place after five days of intense debate in Parliament over Theresa May’s proposed Brexit deal but instead the change of plans ended up with MPs baying for blood including Jeremy Corbyn asking for the PM to “give way.”
There is no clear indication about where the MPs or the Prime Minister plans to take things next.
UK business groups are united in horror at events in parliament today:
Business groups:
— Andy Bruce (@BruceReuters) December 10, 2018
😡 @britishchambers: "Firms are looking on with utter dismay"
😡 @CBItweets: "Yet another blow for companies desperate for clarity"
😡 @IoD_Press: "Another extension of the frustration and uncertainty"
😡 @the_brc: "Particularly concerning"
Fund manager: Second referendum might end Brexit pergatory
Theresa May has insisted several times this afternoon that she will not countenance a People’s Vote on her withdrawal deal.
Instead, she insists, parliamentarians need to implement the 2016 vote -- despite some MPs reporting that constituents have urged them to reject her deal.
Since May’s deal was announced I’ve received over 600 letters/emails about Brexit:
— Layla Moran (@LaylaMoran) December 9, 2018
🥇People's Vote w/ Remain (85%)
🥈Support Theresa May’s deal (8%)
🥉Pro-brexit/No deal (5%)
🏅Other (Norway/Canada etc.) (2%)
Charles Hepworth, investment director at wealth manager GAM, suspects that Britain could end up holding another referendum, to end the current impasse.
PM May is going back to Brussels on Thursday for an EU council meeting and the hope from her side is that further cosmetic concessions can be agreed around the controversial backstop, but in our view that equation does not quite seem to balance given the EU has already announced that it will not engage the UK government on further deal amendments.
“Sterling has once again come under selling pressure, reflecting the ongoing Brexit paralysis. We believe delaying the vote is perhaps just another step towards a second referendum (which clearly cannot take place before the March deadline, but possibly could happen within perhaps six months assuming the March deadline is further extended) as we cannot see another way for this purgatory that the UK inadvertently voted for to end.”
Rather than a crunch vote on Tuesday, the markets now face days of uncertainty, or quite possibly several weeks.
Theresa May is refusing to say when the delayed Meaningful Vote will take place, only that it will be held once she has secured new reassurances on the backstop.
Hang on. What happens if the Govt never brings this deal back for a vote at all? They can’t just avoid a vote on no deal because they pulled the vote in the middle of the debate on this deal! As I was typing @JustineGreening just asked q on this but got no clear answer. https://t.co/PD0xiOMaug
— Yvette Cooper (@YvetteCooperMP) December 10, 2018
PM making our country look chaotic & ridiculous. 5hrs ago Ministers & No10 were insisting vote was going ahead. Now we don’t know when or even what PM wants it to be on. How can there be trust & credibility in this process if no one can trust anything Ministers are told to say? pic.twitter.com/8TU45QdKB4
— Yvette Cooper (@YvetteCooperMP) December 10, 2018
Over the past 24 hours the pound has been comfortably the worst-performing major currency in the world #Brexit pic.twitter.com/9dto4fCHUW
— Ed Conway (@EdConwaySky) December 10, 2018
The cost of insuring UK government debt against default has jumped to its highest level since the EU referendum, in another sign that investors are getting jittery.
UK sovereign 5Y CDS now quoted at 38bps, widest level since the post-referendum days of July 2016
— Gavan Nolan (@GavanNolan) December 10, 2018
It's been a roller-coaster week for sterling but the past half hour or so takes the biscuit. Here's the pound vs the US dollar over the past week or so: pic.twitter.com/sAobl18geM
— Ed Conway (@EdConwaySky) December 10, 2018
The pound remains on track for one of its worst days since the 2016 referendum.
It’s recovering, slightly, from its lowest point today -- but still down 1.6 cents at $1.256.
Lukman Otunuga, research analyst at FXTM, says the possibility that the prime minister is ousted from Downing Street is pulling sterling lower.
It is not just the likelihood of a no-deal Brexit that investors are factoring into their valuations of the British Pound.
Investors are also re-pricing into the market the increased likelihood that Theresa May will once again be at threat to expectations of a leadership challenge. Another emerging danger is that the decision taken today raises the threat level that the UK is falling into a disorderly Brexit trap.
IoD: Government must come clean about no-deal
The news that Theresa May has kicked the Brexit vote down the parliamentary corridors will have disappointed many British business leaders.
After two and a half years of uncertainty, UK PLC really wants Brexit sorted out. Many also fear a no-deal Brexit, especially those which haven’t (or can’t) drawn up contingency plans to protect themselves.
Stephen Martin, Director General of the Institute of Directors, says firms needs to know what will happen if the UK crashes out of the EU on 29 March:
“Avoiding no deal continues to be the main priority for our members but, with Parliament seemingly gridlocked, the Government must also be much clearer about its own contingency plans, even if only regarding the areas they can control, such as imports.
Many companies are still in the dark about what HMRC and border agencies would require the day after Brexit if there is no transition period. Partly because of a lack of information, only 14% of IoD members say they are fully prepared to manage no-deal, highlighting the scale of the challenge if a withdrawal agreement isn’t ratified.”
Lee McDarby, Corporate IP Managing Director at foreign exchange firm moneycorp, says Theresa May’s decision to delay the Brexit vote will hurt the economy:
“Over the course of the afternoon we’ve seen wild swings in the value of Sterling, including a 20 month low against the dollar.
Every time the Prime Minister kicks the can down the road, the uncertainty dents British business plans for 2019. Right now it seems the markets are just looking for some certainty on the future of the UK, regardless of its shape or form.”
Hermes: All options still on the table
The pound’s thumping today suggest that investors see a growing danger that the UK crashes out of the EU at the end of March, without a transition deal.
But a sterling crisis might encourage MPs to back Theresa May’s deal, despite all their misgivings.
Silvia Dall’Angelo, senior economist at Hermes Investment Management, believes all options are still on the table -- from crashing out without a deal, to not leaving at all.
In our – admittedly low confidence – base case, stress in financial markets and pressure from businesses should lead to a last-minute approval of the deal in Parliament.
However, the situation is fluid and other outcomes carry significant probabilities.
Prime Minister May highlighted the government would step up preparations for a no-deal Brexit, but a second referendum, a soft Brexit (Norway-style) or a no-Brexit scenarios seem more realistic, especially following the European Court of Justice’s ruling this morning that the UK can unilaterally reverse Article 50.
The pound has fallen further against the euro too. Now down 1.4%, or one and a half eurocents, at €1.1014.
That means the euro is worth 90.7p, its strongest position since late August. This makes imports from Europe more expensive, and UK exports more competitive.
So much for Theresa May’s speech being priced in! This chart shows how sterling has taken a deeper bath, as MP after MP criticise the PM’s handling of the Brexit negotiations.
Pound hits 20-month low
Boom! The pound is in freefall.....dropping to a new 20-month low of $1.2555 against the US dollar.
That’s a loss of 1.4%, down 1.8 cents today.
The latest drop comes as Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn responds to Theresa May.
Corbyn lashes the government for being in “complete disarray”, and argues that the House of Commons should set the mandate for the PM’s new talks with the EU.
Corbyn demanding that May allows parliament to set the terms of her coming negotiation with EUCO.
— Paul Mason (@paulmasonnews) December 10, 2018
Corbyn: “Extremely serious and unprecedented situation. The Government has lost control of events and is in complete disarray” pic.twitter.com/Y0zlERbhSZ
— Faisal Islam (@faisalislam) December 10, 2018
and we're below 1.2600 #gbp
— Michael Hewson 🇬🇧 (@mhewson_CMC) December 10, 2018
The PM’s position in a nutshell:
PM goes on offensive.
— Steven Swinford (@Steven_Swinford) December 10, 2018
She says those backing 2nd ref must 'be honest' that this risks dividing country again.
If you want to stay in SM + CU this will require free movement & Budget contributions.
If you want no deal this will cause significant economic damage.
Theresa May is now challenging MPs to support her deal, calling for compromise.
She says MPs must admit that a second referendum risks dividing the UK again, that single market membership means maintaining free movement of people, and no deal would cause economic damage.
But, the House of Commons sounds as divided as ever....
'Does this house want to deliver Brexit?' says May
— Danny Kemp (@dannyctkemp) December 10, 2018
'NO!' comes the cry pic.twitter.com/wMx3p4u0MA
The Brexit problem here in Westminster summed up in a moment - PM says House faces fundamental question, do we want to deliver Brexit? SNP benches and some on Labour backbenches shout “NO”! Most laugh. Except it’s not really that funny.
— Kate McCann (@KateEMcCann) December 10, 2018
Updated
Theresa May confirms Brexit vote is delayed
Theresa May has confirmed that the government has decided to defer the Brexit vote scheduled for tomorrow.
The PM says there is ‘broad support’ for much of her deal (cue heckling from the opposition benches), but also admits that the government would lose the vote, due to concern over the Irish backstop.
She tells MPs that both sides are “legally committed to using best endeavours” to ensure the backstop is never used, and that any use would only be temporary.
[Reminder: the backstop would ensure no hard border in the island of Ireland, if the UK and EU can’t agree a permanent trade deal at the end of a post-Brexit transition deal]
Given the “clear concerns” of the House of Commons, May adds, she plans to meet fellow EU leaders in the coming days to press for more reassurances on the backstop [many MPs fear that the UK could be trapped permanently].
There’s not much financial reaction -- the pound is still trading around $1.262, an 18-month low, down one cent today.
This morning’s leaks mean that today’s announcement is already priced in....
Updated
Theresa May is giving her statement to the House of Commons now.
Our Politics Live blog will have full coverage. I’ll track financial reaction to the key points.
Theresa May has been working the phones....but not finding many friends at the other end of the line.
Just off call with PM. Expressed my deep frustration that the interests of a divided Tory party are taking priority over the interests of country and that delaying the vote is an abdication of responsibility, leading to even greater chaos.
— Nicola Sturgeon (@NicolaSturgeon) December 10, 2018
The Sun’s political editor, Tom Newton Dunn, has tweeted that MPs might not get to vote on Theresa May’s Brexit deal until 2019.
Latest: I am told the PM will tell MPs she will not dump the backstop or reopen the Withdrawal Agreement, but instead seek legal assurances from the EU that it will not last indefinitely (1)
— Tom Newton Dunn (@tnewtondunn) December 10, 2018
PM will also say the meaningful vote will be suspended, indefinitely, until that happens. So, could well be not vote until after Xmas. Even if May succeeds, will it be enough to win over the DUP and ERG? (2)
— Tom Newton Dunn (@tnewtondunn) December 10, 2018
If so, that wouldn’t calm the financial jitters dragging down the pound.
More pressure on the PM, from the head of the DUP - who have been propping her government up since the 2017 election.
Just finished a call with the Prime Minister. My message was clear. The backstop must go. Too much time has been wasted. Need a better deal. Disappointed it has taken so long for Prime Minister to listen.
— Arlene Foster (@DUPleader) December 10, 2018
Andy Scott, Associate Director at financial risk management consultancy JCRA, fears the pound will suffer further losses as the Brexit drama plays out:
Theresa May is reported to be planning to travel to Brussels to seek a legally-binding assurance on the back stop, in an attempt to gain support of MPs who fear being trapped indefinitely under the current proposal.
But with her authority severely depleted, the political stakes are high for May whose position as Prime Minister could soon be deemed untenable.
“The uncertainty will meanwhile continue to exert downwards pressure on Sterling.”
One well-connected source floats the possibility of a joint letter signed by the British and Irish governments to spell out what would constitute acceptable alternative arrangements to the backstop
— Jessica Elgot (@jessicaelgot) December 10, 2018
The slump in the pound today shows that international investors are losing faith in Theresa May’s government, says the BBC’s Simon Jack:
Q: Why is the value of pound falling? FX traders A: "when international investors see government in crisis they go away till there's crumb of clarity". Q: Does it make no deal more likely? A: The single line of least resistance (no one has to do anything) is no deal.
— Simon Jack (@BBCSimonJack) December 10, 2018
MPs are due to hear from Theresa May in less than 30 minutes time, in what’s certain to be a testing appearance at the dispatch box.
Paul Hardy, Brexit director at legal firm DLA Piper, argues that the pain may not be worth it:
“The political cost to Theresa May of delaying the vote could only be justified if she can come back from Brussels with significant changes to the draft Withdrawal Treaty - this is the legally binding document which puts the Irish backstop in place.
This seems unlikely if the comments of the European Commission President, Jean-Claude Junker, made at the time the deal was adopted are taken at face value: “This is the best deal possible. I’m inviting those who have to ratify this deal in the House of Commons to take this into consideration. This is the best deal for the UK, the best deal for Europe, this is the only deal possible”.”
At today’s 18-month low of $1.261, the pound in your pocket is worth 15% less than on the day of the EU referendum.
However, it’s still stronger than in the aftermath of the vote; sterling hit a 31-year low below $1.20 in January 2017, before managing a small recovery.
And in historical terms, it’s just one more devaluation in a series of sterling crises.... including Black Wednesday in 1992, the Wilson devaluation in 1967, the 30% devaluation by the Attlee government, the end of the gold standard....
The pound is tumbling again today. But a glance back through history shows this is hardly the first time - or indeed the biggest falls. Presenting sterling vs the dollar since 1870: pic.twitter.com/55z4wwkYXm
— Ed Conway (@EdConwaySky) December 10, 2018
We also have fresh evidence that all the Brexit uncertainty is weighing on the economy.
The National Institute of Economic and Social Research has estimated that UK growth will slow to 0.4% in the current quarter, down from 0.6% in July-September.
That follows official data this morning, showing that UK manufacturing shrank in October, and that the wider economy only grew by 0.1% last month.
OUT NOW:
— NIESR (@NIESRorg) December 10, 2018
Our latest monthly #GDP Tracker suggests that UK economic #growth is set to slow to a quarterly rate of 0.4% in 2018Q4 from 0.6% 2018Q3 - Read here in full: https://t.co/UTIU0b4ECr
Sterling’s weakness isn’t helped by confusion over whether Theresa May can actually scrap tomorrow’s vote or not!
Govt whips apparently confident they can delay the vote - but it may be when the try that the 'house erupts' - according to one MP
— Laura Kuenssberg (@bbclaurak) December 10, 2018
The PM does not get to pull a vote. The House will have to vote to pull a vote. I will oppose. We need to see this deal off once and for all.
— James Duddridge MP (@JamesDuddridge) December 10, 2018
However, the government may use parliamentary procedure to avoid the humiliation of losing a vote on whether to cancel its own vote.
My colleague Jessica Elgot explains:
A government source has said that there won’t be a vote on a business motion to cancel Tuesday’s vote. (See 1.38pm.) “We are replacing the business with a new statement but it isn’t a motion and therefore isn’t voteable,” the source said.
Reminder: Our Politics Live blog has all the latest from Westminster (I’m tracking the financial reaction here...)
A further burst of selling pressure is threatening to send sterling below $1.26, for the first time since June 2017.
As you can see, the pound has suffered a series of sickening jolts in the last few hours, since news broke that Theresa May was holding an emergency call with the cabinet.
The latest chatter in Westminster is that May plans to return to Brussels, in search of a better deal (given the torrent of criticism over the Irish backstop).
PM expected to say that she's listened to concerns about the backstop and is heading back to Brussels.
— steve hawkes (@steve_hawkes) December 10, 2018
Sources tell me PM will return to Brussels in an attempt to renegotiate the backstop. Statement at 3.30.
— Ken Reid (@KenReid_utv) December 10, 2018
.... meanwhile, the leader of the Scottish Nationalist Party, Nicola Sturgeon, has publicly called for a vote of no confidence in the government.
So @jeremycorbyn - if Labour, as official opposition, lodges motion of no confidence in this incompetent government tomorrow, @theSNP will support & we can then work together to give people the chance to stop Brexit in another vote. This shambles can’t go on - so how about it?
— Nicola Sturgeon (@NicolaSturgeon) December 10, 2018
The pound is continuing to lose ground, as traders prepare to hear from Theresa May this afternoon.
Sterling is now down a whole eurocent against the euro at €1.1078, the lowest since September. That means the euro is worth more than 90p.
Against the US dollar, sterling has just scraped a new 18-month low, down almost one cent at $1.263.
Cable LOD, 1.2630 now, fresh 18-month low. pic.twitter.com/VLLvMlaUog
— Neil Wilson (@marketsneil) December 10, 2018
Jaws have been dropping across the City in the last few hours. Banks, stock brokers and foreign exchange firms had all drawn up plans for a big night on Tuesday, as the Meaningful Vote took place.
Hotels were booked, caterers arranged, as traders prepared for a big all-nighter.
Now, investors are watching Westminster to see how the saga develops.
Here’s how Brad Bechtel of investment bank Jefferies summed up the situation to clients:
The risk of a disastrous vote scenario was too high and therefore they felt it prudent to delay for now. Don’t honestly know if that is a good or bad thing.
Either the vote was going to be so bad that postponing it is a good thing, or the postponement of the vote tells you how far away from a good scenario they are.
Updated
Conservative MP John Redwood is speaking on Bloomberg TV now.
Redwood - a long-standing Brexiteer - argues that the UK should leave the EU without a deal, thus saving the £39bn divorce payment:
We won’t be crashing out, we’ll be cashing in.
Redwood says that a ‘clean’ Brexit would be a great opportunity to strike new trade deals....
...but US investors aren’t convinced by the MP for Wokingham.
Marc Chandler, chief market strategist at investment group Bannockburn Capital, is also on the show. He says that delaying tomorrow’s Brexit vote means more uncertainty (bad for markets).
People think that leaving without a deal would be bad for sterling.
Number 10 insiders tell me they think a second referendum is on the cards. "We’re not preparing for it and she doesn’t want it but it might be the only way. We think that’s where we’ll end up". https://t.co/cb3XslVKeW
— Pippa Crerar (@PippaCrerar) December 10, 2018
Analyst: EU won't give May a better deal
Scrapping today’s vote may allow Theresa May to live another day...but it could also hasten her political end.
So argues Mujtaba Rahman, political analyst at Eurasia Group, who points out that the PM’s last-ditch attempts to improve her deal have failed:
She tried to limit the damage in tomorrow’s vote by seeking last-minute concessions from several EU leaders in telephone calls over the weekend. She hoped changes to the Irish backstop could be announced just before tomorrow’s vote. But the EU offered only “clarifications” - not “sweeteners” - and rejected May’s desperate pleas to reopen the Withdrawal Agreement.
Indeed, in Brussels this morning, the sense was that May’s last minute phone diplomacy was lacking in detailed “asks”. She also refused to share what her strategy was going to be regarding management of the Commons - both before and after the vote.
Rahman also doubts that shelving the vote will do May much good....
May will likely respond to the overwhelming message from Tory MPs by seeking emergency talks in Brussels with European Commission and Council leaders before the two-day regular summit of EU leaders on Thursday and Friday. But we remain of the view that any substantive reopening of the Withdrawal Agreement is unlikely. EU leaders will not be pleased with new demands from May, especially as she only signed off on the deal a few weeks ago.
The decision to shelve the vote is not without cost for May. It is a very unusual course during a five-day Commons debate, and makes her look weak. It will revive accusations that she is in office, not power, and add to the “end of days” atmosphere at Westminster. However, it was probably the lesser of two evils. If May had lost by a three-figure margin, she could have been forced out of office this week.
There is also a danger that, if the EU does reopen negotiations, that some EU governments will table new demands – such as France on fishing rights in UK waters and Spain on the future of Gibraltar.
May lives to fight another day, but her growing number of Tory critics believe it will be merely to die another day.
Updated
The financial markets have been plunged into fresh upheaval today, says Simon Harvey, FX Analyst at Monex Europe:
“When the market thought uncertainty had finally peaked, May’s delay proves it wrong”
Three statement from 330pm - you’d think this was a pretty clear hint that they’re going to try to pull tomorrow’s Meaningful Vote
— Labour Whips (@labourwhips) December 10, 2018
1. PM - Exiting the EU
2. Leadsom - Business Statement
3. Barclay - ECJ ruling on Art 50
The chaos in Westminster is hurting the stock market too.
Shares in house builders, who are vulnerable to an economic slowdown, are falling. Barratt Development are down 3%, Taylor Wimpey has lost 2%, and Crest Nicholson down 7%.
Other UK-focused companies are suffering too, such as Primark-owner ABF (down 2%), ITV (down 3.5%) and the AA (down 5.5%).
Britain’s FTSE 250 index, which contains UK-focused companies, has fallen by 1% today.
The blue-chip FTSE 100, though, is up 7 points, thanks to the weakening pound (which boosts the overseas earnings of multinational companies).
Updated
No prizes for spotting the moment when traders heard that the Brexit vote might be off....
Sterling is on the slide again. Down below $1.27. Lowest for 18 months or so. pic.twitter.com/CWKIZtnU08
— Ed Conway (@EdConwaySky) December 10, 2018
This chart shows how the pound has now dropped to its lowest level against the US dollar since June 2017
City traders are scrambling to keep up with events in Westminster. The latest news is that Theresa May will address parliament this afternoon....
Breaking: The Prime Minister will be making an oral statement today at 330pm titled “Exiting the European Union”.
— Labour Whips (@labourwhips) December 10, 2018
Investors had been preparing for major volatility on Tuesday night, when the Meaningful Vote took place. Instead, the drama is coming a day early.
Hamish Muress, currency analyst at OFX, said:
The confusion over whether tomorrow’s Brexit vote will go ahead provides the market an insight into the chaos and disagreement within Downing Street. Rumours that Theresa May is set to pull tomorrow’s vote contradict those of a Downing Street spokesperson, and the fact the news was broken over a conference call instead of in a cabinet meeting speaks volumes.
“Many predicted that tomorrow would be the big day for any movement in the pound. However, it has already reached three-month lows against the euro and, depending on whether the vote tomorrow goes ahead, could hit lows last seen against the dollar in August.”
Pound hits 18-month low amid Brexit confusion
Back in the financial markets, the pound is suddenly sliding amid reports that the government will cancel tomorrow’s parliamentary vote on the Brexit withdrawal deal.
Theresa May is holding a conference call with ministers right now; some have apparently revealed that the vote, due on Tuesday night, has been ditched.
Two cabinet sources tell me vote being pulled - not, repeat not, yet officially confirmed
— Laura Kuenssberg (@bbclaurak) December 10, 2018
Such a move would plunge Westminster into even deeper confusion (although it’s hard to believe that further depths can be plumbed).
It’s got the City worried. Sterling has just slumped its lowest level against the US dollar since June 2017, down 0.5% at below $1.2660.
The pound has also hit a three-month low against the euro, down 0.7% at €1.1096.
Neil Wilson of Markets.com says the situation remains very fluid...
If she is pulling the vote to go back to Brussels it could suggest a renegotiation of the backstop, or at least clarification. We must note that the EU has categorically said this is the only deal and it seems unlikely it would revisit.
Alternatively, this opens up the prospect of May herself going for a second referendum, with voters asked whether they accept this deal or no deal. A complete shambles is about the only way to describe this situation and investors are right to be very cautious about UK assets.
The only known is that the uncertainty has increased and we are faced with more volatility for sterling and UK assets.
My colleague Andy Sparrow is tracking all the political drama:
S.M. Lodha, chairman of UK insulation firm Western Thermal Group, fears that the UK economy will continue to struggle until Brexit is resolved:
It is evident that this economic slowdown has been impacted by the extremely low business confidence levels amongst businesses and entrepreneurs in the UK with the ongoing Brexit negotiations leaving businesses in a state of hesitancy and reluctance to invest in opportunities or growth.
As long as the UK’s future continues to be uncertain, the more business growth will be stagnated.”
Another reason to worry....
The composite leading indicator (CLI) is an OECD measure of economic turning points, sometimes called an early recession warning system. Higher is better (more growth), lower is worse. The UK's CLI now comfortably the lowest in the G7 and still heading south... pic.twitter.com/zaoJe2le8U
— Ed Conway (@EdConwaySky) December 10, 2018
Marina Mensah-Afoakwah, senior economist at the CEBR think tank, also blame Brexit for the UK’s slowing economy:
“Today’s data show that the UK economy has continued its slowdown into Autumn, as business and consumer confidence take a hit amidst Brexit uncertainty.
She also points out that the service sector provided most of the growth in the last few months, while manufacturing contracted last month:
October’s GDP growth was mainly driven by services. Rolling three-month growth in the sector was 0.3% in October, which contributed 0.23 percentage points to overall GDP growth. This was largely as a result of growth in IT and professional services, which grew by 1.7% and 1.3% respectively. Construction also contributed positive growth, up 1.2% in October.
However, the manufacturing sector saw no growth at all in the three months to October, mainly due to a decline in the pharmaceutical industry. While in the three months to October growth in the manufacturing industry was flat, monthly figures for October show that sector actually contracted by 0.9%.
Economist Rupert Seggins has analysed today’s growth figures, and pulled out some key points:
1. UK economy grew 1.5%y/y (4th month in a row) or 0.4%q/q in the three months to October. Main contributions came from: professional services, info & comms services, wholesale & retail and construction. Manufacturing's boost to growth has faded. pic.twitter.com/S5Fk8jwY0E
— Rupert Seggins (@Rupert_Seggins) December 10, 2018
2. Production sectors as a whole grew by 0.3%q/q in the three months to October. Main contributions to growth came from gas & electric and mining & quarrying. 0% chnge in manufacturing output on the previous three months. pic.twitter.com/fnC4FHMA1U
— Rupert Seggins (@Rupert_Seggins) December 10, 2018
3. In the construction sector, we had overall growth in output of 1.2%q/q growth in the three months to October. Main thing holding up the numbers was house building and infrastructure. Repeair & maintenance, office and factory & warehouse construction all dragged on growth. pic.twitter.com/iGh8pZNupV
— Rupert Seggins (@Rupert_Seggins) December 10, 2018
Although monthly GDP figures are volatile, it’s clear that the UK economy has slowed since the summer:
BCC: Brexit uncertainty is hurting the economy
The British Chambers of Commerce, which represents UK firms, has no doubt what to blame for the slowdown -- BREXIT.
Suren Thiru, head of economics at the BCC, says rising cost pressures (due to the weak pound) and the “drag effect of persistent Brexit uncertainty” is taking its toll on the UK economy.
“The slowdown on the underlying three-month measure of GDP was largely driven by weaker service sector growth as car sales fell. That said, the service sector still made the largest contribution to overall economic activity, with manufacturing and construction adding little to overall UK growth.
Thiru also warns that UK factories are suffering from higher import costs:
“The widening in the UK’s trade deficit is a concern and reflects a sharp rise in goods imports. Trading conditions for UK exporters are deteriorating amid moderating global growth and uncertainty over Brexit.
Businesses continue to report that the persistent weakness in sterling is hurting as much as its helping, with the weakening currency raising input costs.
UK trade gap widens
In another blow, Britain’s trade gap with the rest of the world has widened.
The ONS reports that the total trade deficit in goods and services widened by £3.1bn in August-October to £10.3bn.
Britain’s goods deficit widened by £1.7bn during the quarter, as imports increased £3.6 billion, while exports increased by a lesser £1.9 billion.
The traditional services surplus shrank by £1.3bn, due to a £1bn fall in exports and £0.3bn increase in imports.
The ONS says:
Trade in unspecified goods (including non-monetary gold) and chemicals had the largest widening effect on the goods deficit, which was partially offset by trade in cars in the three months to October 2018.
The UK’s trade in goods deficit with the EU has actually narrowed over the last year, by £2.8bn,.
However, this was wiped out by a £3.2bn increase in the deficit with non-EU countries.
UK growth slows: snap reaction
Geoff Tily, senior economist at the TUC, is concerned that the UK has barely posted any growth since the summer:
ONS monthly GDP shows third consecutive weak figure, suggesting UK economy slowed significantly from August. Manufacturing declined 0.9 per cent in October, with a 6.6% reduction in motor vehicle production. pic.twitter.com/1tr9a7uu82
— geoff tily (@geofftily) December 10, 2018
Howard Archer of EY Item Club has summed up the data:
#UK #economy got off to lacklustre start to Q4 as #GDP edged up 0.1% m/m in October. 3-month growth rate slowed to 0.4% from 0.6% in September (Q3). #Services output rose 0.2% m/m but #industrial production fell 0.6% m/m. #Construction output down 0.2% after recent healthy gains
— Howard Archer (@HowardArcherUK) December 10, 2018
Naeem Aslam of Think Markets blames the Brexit saga for the slowdown:
There is no doubt that the UK’s economic data has deteriorated and the confidence has shattered among entrepreneurs. The ongoing Brexit saga has created nothing but the bad environment.
This chart shows how the UK’s growth rate has petered out, as the bumper consumer spending boost in July drops out of the data.
[Each data point compares a three-month growth period to the previous quarter]
Updated
Rob Kent-Smith, head of national accounts at the ONS, says the UK economy has weakened this autumn:
“GDP growth slowed going into the autumn after a strong summer, with a softening in services sector growth mainly due to a fall in car sales. This was offset by a strong showing from IT and accountancy.
“Manufacturing saw no growth at all in the latest three months, mainly due to a decline in the often-erratic pharmaceutical industry.
Construction, while slowing slightly, continued its recent solid performance with growth in housebuilding and infrastructure.”
Britain’s economy has now barely grown over the last three months.
Today’s growth report shows that GDP was flat in August and September, before inching up by 0.1% in October
Updated
UK growth rate slow as manufacturing stumbles
Newsflash: the UK economy only grew by 0.1% in October, as manufacturing stumbles.
This dragged the UK’s quarterly growth rate down to just 0.4%, from 0.6% in July-September.
0.4% growth in #GDP in the 3-months to October, down from 0.6% in the 3-months to September https://t.co/TqaDo6UNae pic.twitter.com/LdKFpJAHU7
— ONS (@ONS) December 10, 2018
In a worrying sign, the Office for National Statistics also reported that manufacturing output shrank by 0.9% in October, the worst performance since March 2016. That’s a surprise, as we thought factories were busy stockpiling in case of a hard Brexit...
The service sector grew by 0.2% in October, the ONS adds, while construction shrank by 0.2%.
More to follow....
Over in Japan, prosecutors in Japan have charged Carlos Ghosn with under-reporting his income -- three weeks after the former Nissan chairman was dramatically arrested.
And in another twist, prosecutors also indicted Nissan for filing false financial statements. That could leave other senior executives facing tough question, such as CEO Hiroto Saikawa, who was scathing about Ghosn’s performance after his arrest.
Brexit anxiety is also bubbling in the markets today, as investors prepare for MPs to (probably) reject Theresa May’s deal tomorrow.
The government is on track for a stonking defeat (assuming the vote goes ahead), meaning there’s plenty of chatter about leadership bids, no-confidence votes, and general elections.
Shares in UK-focused companies such as house builders and retailers are among the top fallers in London this morning. And sterling is bobbing around $1.27, a whole five cents lower than in late September.
Neil Wilson of Markets.com says
Given the way political risk is starting to be priced into the market, we could see further losses if, or rather when, the prime minister loses her Brexit vote.
Whilst a weaker pound could offer some support, a very high political risk premium would tend to trump that and drag the market lower. Investors will have to start, if they haven’t already, price in the risk of a General Election and Labour-led government.
In another twist, Europe’s top court has ruled that the UK can unilaterally stop the Brexit process, and remain in the EU on the same terms....
O.M.G
Shares in UK outsourcing firm Interserve have cratered by three-quarters this morning, to just 6p, as the government contractor battles to negotiate its second rescue deal this year.
The heavily indebted group, which has thousands of government contracts such as cleaning hospitals and serving school meals, said the rescue plan would mean substantial losses for current shareholders as the banks that have lent Interserve more than £600m take control of the company. It hopes to wrap up a deal early next year.
Interserve’s shares plunged to 6p in early trading, giving it a market value of less than £9m. At its peak in 2014, the shares were worth more than 700p.
Interserve share price obliterated this morning on news of debt-for-equity takeover by lenders. Down 70% in early trading to 7p, valuing the outsourcer at just £10m. Company set to fall into hands of hedge funds and banks in coming weeks just months after big refinancing
— Ben Marlow (@benjaminmarlow) December 10, 2018
Updated
Europe opens in the red
European stock markets have followed Asia’s lead, dropping by around 0.6% in early trading.
That takes them back towards last Thursday’s two-year lows, wiping out some of Friday’s rally.
Italian FTSE MIB has lost almost 1%, leading the selloff, as investors show little appetite for risk.
Kit Juckes of Societe Generale says “geopolitics has taken over.”
The US ambassador to China has been summoned by Beijing in protest at the arrest of Huawei’s CFO, and that’s driving sentiment across Asia.
Hopes of fruitful trade negotiations have taken a beating since the optimism that was around a week ago when the Buenos Aires G20 meeting prompted hope of a rally into the end of the year for equities.
Today’s losses have dragged the Australian stock market to a two-year low (a milestone which Britain’s FTSE 100 struck last week).
Stock markets have also been hit by the news that Japan has suffered its worst contraction in four years.
Revised GDP figures show that the Japanese economy shrank by 0.6% in July-September, or 2.5% on an annualised basis, worse than first estimated.
Growth shrank as companies slashed spending, as the US-China trade war hurt demand for exports.
Japan was also hit by several natural disasters during the quarter, including Typhoon Jebi (the worst in 25 years) and a destructive earthquake in Hokkaido. This forced factories to cut production.
Artjom Hatsaturjants of Accendo Markets says Japan’s contraction is “adding further fuel to the fire that set the stock markets red”.
Updated
The agenda: Markets keep falling; UK growth data coming up
Good morning, and welcome to our rolling coverage of the world economy, the financial markets, the eurozone and business.
It’s a new week, but the same old story. Global financial markets are sliding amid worries about trade war tensions and the health of the global economy.
Asia-Pacific stock markets have slumped today, taking their cue from Wall Street where shares closed in the red on Friday night (the Dow surrendered another 558 points).
Japan’s Nikkei has shed more than 2%, China’s Shanghai Composite has lost 0.8%, while Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 is the real laggard, down almost 2.3%.
Stephen Innes of trading firm OANDA says investors have been left “battered, bruised and running for cover” after last week’s losses, which dragged European stocks down to a two-year low.
Innes adds:
A high level of circumspection continues to engulf the global market.
Another day another reason to sell risk. Equity markets remain in a world of pain with everyone in search of a very elusive silver lining, or even Santa for that matter.
Bloomberg argues that investors are spooked:
To Nader Naeimi, a Sydney-based fund manager at AMP Capital Investors Ltd., the recent market weakness has been “narrative based” as opposed to “fundamentally based,” and investors are in a “get-me-out-of-here mood.”
With every single market in the red, Asia’s benchmark MSCI Asia Pacific Index has erased November’s 2.7 percent climb and is heading to its lowest level since end-October.
Investors are in a "get-me-out-of-here mood" as Asian stocks spiral https://t.co/VqluMQX687 pic.twitter.com/6Sv3aQKBdr
— Bloomberg (@business) December 10, 2018
We’re expecting a weak start in Europe too, with Britain’s FTSE 100 expected to dip by 0.5%.
EU futures rally through 0700.
— IGSquawk (@IGSquawk) December 10, 2018
UPDATED -European Opening Calls:#FTSE 6746 -0.47%#DAX 10697 -0.85%#CAC 4789 -0.51%#MIB 18597 -0.78%#IBEX 8767 -0.55%
The arrest of Huawei’s chief financial officer last week continues to worry the market.
Investors fear that the truce agreed between Washington and Beijing will fracture, as China demands Meng Wanzhou’s immediate release.
As Soichiro Monji, senior economist at Daiwa SB Investments in Tokyo, puts it:.
“The biggest concerns for equity markets currently is the U.S.-China trade conflict and the Huawei incident.
The trade theme will preoccupy the markets through the 90-day truce period between the United States and China, waiting for any signs of concession between the parties.”
Also coming up today
New GDP data will show how the UK’s economy is faring. Economists predict growth of just 0.1%.
The Agenda
- 9.30am GMT: UK GDP for October 2018
- 9.30am GMT: UK trade, manufacturing and services
- 3pm GMT: US JOLTS survey of job openings
Updated