Graeme Wearden and Julia Kollewe 

Markets surge after worst month since the financial crisis – as it happened

All the day’s economic and financial news, as shares drop in China but push higher in Europe
  
  

An investor watches private stock trading boards at a private stock market gallery in Kuala Lumpur today.
An investor watches private stock trading boards at a private stock market gallery in Kuala Lumpur today. Photograph: Yam G-Jun/AP

Closing summary

It has been a good day for stock markets. In the eurozone, the Dax closed up 1.2% while France’s CAC was up 0.4% and Italy’s FTSE MiB gained 1.9%.

The FTSE 100 index pared some of the gains made before the budget speech when it was up more than 120 points, and closed down 86.76 points at 7026.32, a 1.25% gain.

Despite growth upgrades, sterling was little moved by the chancellor’s speech (the growth outlook is still poor by historical standards). The pound slipped a bit more against the dollar, by 0.26% to $1.28, while it remained flat against the euro.

Neil Wilson, chief market analyst at Markets.com, said:

We got a confident, jocular chancellor and a fair bit of extra cash being splashed around for various departments – defence, potholes, schools etc. Nothing earth-shatteringly major however. This was a political budget aimed at tackling the Corbyn threat – end of PFI and a kind of pseudo Google tax. And the elephant in the room was Brexit – it could all change if there is no deal, the odds of which are shortening by the day.

We are closing the blog for the day – we will be back tomorrow. Good night.

You can read more reaction and analysis on our budget live blog:

And here are the key points at a glance:

One of the main budget announcements was a new digital services tax, on tech giants such as Google (but not start-ups). It will come into effect in April 2020 and will raise £400m a year, the chancellor said. Digital tech giants will be taxed 2% on the money they make from UK users.

Stella Amiss, head of tax policy at PricewaterhouseCoopers, said:

The chancellor’s strong words of recent months were no bluff. At home, the confirmation of a new digital services tax was trailed as a step towards levelling the playing field between online retailers and the high street. But it is much more than that. Working out who is taxed and who isn’t in the digital economy is no mean feat when all businesses operate in an increasing technological world.

It’s no surprise then that the chancellor has approached this with caution - a narrowly targeted regime, a 2% rate, and an effective implementation date pushed back to 2020. This new tax is well and truly aimed at the tech giants and not the online retailers so will do little to address the woes of bricks and mortar retailers and could well be perceived across the pond as an anti-American measure that could come back to bite us as the UK looks to move to trade talks after the Brexit deadline.

Duty on beer, cider and spirits has been frozen for a year – while wine wasn’t spared, with duty going up in line with inflation.

The Wine and Spirit Trade Association was quick to respond. Its chief executive Miles Beale welcomed the government’s decision to freeze duty on spirits, but deplored the increase in wine duty.

The decision by the chancellor to increase wine rates significantly is a hammer blow to this great British industry. It actively undermines a sector that has been hardest hit since the Brexit Referendum and will be thoroughly unwelcome for the 33 million consumers of the nation’s most popular alcoholic drink.

This inflationary rise is grossly unfair, unjustified and counter-productive. The UK is the world’s biggest wine trading nation and, as such, deserves government’s support, not punishment.

The wine industry is, unfortunately, no stranger to harsh treatment from chancellors. Since 2012 wine overtook beer as the largest contributor to the public purse through duty payments, and no alcoholic drink has paid more to the Treasury since then.

Updated

The chancellor has pledged a £675m high street fund and business rates to be cut by a third to help embattled high street retailers.

Paul Clement, head of place shaping at property group Savills, says:

We are very pleased that the chancellor has recognised the need to extend an essential lifeline to the British high street. Business rate relief alongside a new fund for local authorities to redevelop and transform town centres are just some of the key recommendations made by Savills as part of the evidence submitted to the Housing Communities and Local Government Committee’s (HCLGC) latest government inquiry. Creating places where people want, rather than need to be, can only be achieved through this kind of systemic change.

Earlier, Hammond said we are at a “pivotal moment” in the Brexit talks. If we get it right, there will be a “double Brexit dividend”. More investment, currently on hold, will come on stream, and the Treasury will no longer have to hold back money.

But the chancellor also said he was increasing the amount of spending for no deal planning to £2bn. Markets shrugged off the comments...

Updated

As to whether the budget commitments are funded whether there is a Brexit deal or not, as No. 10 said today, the chancellor suggested the opposite yesterday.

The new UK growth forecasts from the Office for Budget Responsibility, announced by Philip Hammond in his budget speech a few minutes ago, are higher than in March but still dismal.

Paul Johnson, director of the Institute for Fiscal Studies, tweeted:

The speech has had little impact on markets so far. The FTSE 100 index is about 105 points ahead at 7045.42, a 1.5% gain. The pound still 0.2% lower against the dollar at $1.2805, and flat against the euro at €1.1242.

In other news, easyJet now expects to be flying electric plans by 2030, pushing back its forecast from 2027, but expressed confidence about a technology that is expected to cut the energy costs of a plane by 30%.

The low-cost carrier’s chief executive Johan Lundgren told Reuters:

We can definitely see a way forward in how we will get this aircraft into the fleet.

EasyJet has a partnership with US start-up Wright Electric, which is working on an electric engine for a nine-seater plane that will fly next year, following success with a two-seater, and will also start working on a 50-seater version. The goal is to build battery-propelled aircraft for flights of less than two hours.

More importantly, the chancellor has echoed Theresa May’s comments that “the era of austerity is finally coming to an end”.

You can follow the budget speech more closely at our budget live blog:

Hammond says the last time a UK budget was presented on a Monday was in 1962, when he was six. He recalls that his parents turned to him and said: “Philip, one day that could be you.”

And we are off. Philip Hammond has started his budget speech.

Markets ahead of the budget

With the UK budget just a couple of minutes away, let’s take a quick look at the markets. All the major indices are in the green.

On Wall Street, the Dow Jones rose as much as 300 points and is now trading 175 points higher, or 0.7%, at 24,867.62 – compared with the 27,000 all-time highs at the beginning of the month.

The eurozone has shrugged off Angela Merkel’s decision not to seek re-election as CDU party leader. Markets took comfort from her intention to stay on as chancellor until the next German federal election in 2021. Germany’s Dax is 1.8% ahead at 11,405.95.

Italy’s FTSE MiB has rocketed 2.4% as S&P kept Italy’s credit rating unchanged, while the country’s battle with the EU over its budget continues. Rome was last week given three weeks to rewrite its draft budget.

As for the FTSE, it is trading over 100 points higher at 7051.32, a 1.6% gain.

The pound is feeling the pressure of the budget, slipping back under $1.281 against the dollar, down 0.2%.

Updated

HSBC chief: Khashoggi murder unlikely to deter foreign investment in Saudi Arabia

John Flint, the chief executive of HSBC, Europe’s biggest bank, reckons that the murder of Saudi journalist Jamal Khashoggi is unlikely to hurt Saudi Arabia’s ability to attract foreign investors.

Flint said this morning:

I understand the emotion around the story but it is very difficult to think about disengaging from Saudi Arabia, given its importance to global energy markets.

Flint was one of several banking chief executives who pulled out of a major investment conference in Riyadh last week, along with Tidjane Thiam of Credit Suisse, Bill Winters of Standard Chartered and Jamie Dimon of JPMorgan Chase.

However, Samir Assaf, the head of HSBC’s global banking and markets, attended the event. While most western business leaders shunned it, the kingdom managed to get $50bn of deals signed at the investment conference.

Flint said:

My decision [to pull out] was not an easy decision but I felt it was the right thing to do under the circumstances.

But he defended the bank’s decision to send a less high-profile figure to the conference:

We are the biggest foreign bank in Saudi Arabia, so we own 40% of the Saudi British Bank, we have 4,000 employees in the kingdom and we have many customers in the kingdom as well so we have a responsibility to them.

Flint hinted at future investment in the Middle East, saying:

We are a significant part of the banking system in many parts of the region … We will build our businesses as the opportunities arise.

Here is our full story on the HSBC results, out earlier today.

Updated

Poland’s foreign minister Jacek Czaputowicz said today that Merkel plays an important role in stabilising the European Union, and expressed support for her to stay on as chancellor.

Merkel’s decision not to seek re-election as CDU party chairwoman which means her fourth term as chancellor will be her last heralds the end of an era in which she has dominated European politics. She became Germany’s chancellor in 2005.

The race for a successor to Merkel at the top of the CDU has already started. This morning, three candidates announced their ambitions:

  • Party secretary-general Annegret Kramp-Karrenbauer
  • Health minister Jens Spahn
  • Former parliamentary leader when Merkel started as party chair, Friedrich Merz

Carsten Brzeski, chief economist at ING Germany, says the key question is will the new CDU leader move to the political right again or continue Merkel’s strategy of capturing the political centre.

Merkel’s announcement remains less of a risk for the German government than the SPD’s losses in the last elections. The CDU has no interest in Merkel stepping down as chancellor or a snap election before any successor has been able to build up a profile. The SPD, however, remains in an existential crisis which could easily lead to the decision to leave the coalition next year.

As historic as today’s announcement is, the approaching end of an era also holds the potential for positive developments. Not so much because new is always better but rather because it could give Merkel the freedom and the tailwind - freed from party ties - to put a final stamp on her legacy, possibly with bolder steps to reform the German economy and the monetary union.

Three years of a lame duck government would clearly be harmful, not only for Europe but also for Germany. Somehow, the announced end is typical for the entire era Merkel: unpretentiously pulling the strings.

Stefan Koopman, market economist at Rabobank, notes that after the initial shock caused by Merkel’s announcement, the market reaction has been relatively muted as she also said she would like to see her term through to 2021.

The CDU is suffering heavy losses in state elections and the opinion polls indicate there is no improvement in sight. It will now be increasingly difficult for her to stay on as Chancellor, and having shown signs of weakness, the wolves may come for her sooner rather than later.

Germany has been a cradle of political stability over the last decade, but this now looks to be over. Ms Merkel has been a driving force in Europe, leading the response to major political and economic upheaval like the Eurozone debt crisis. What now remains to be seen is whether her CDU successor has the political will and gravitas on the European stage to hold it together in these testing times.

With Brexit imminent and growing controversy around the Italian government’s spending plans, there couldn’t be a worse time for Germany’s steady ship to hit choppy waters. This implies more financial market volatility going forward and is another reason to remain bearish about the euro.

Who might replace Angela Merkel as CDU leader?

More on Angela Merkel’s decision to step down as CDU party chair but stay on as Germany’s chancellor until the next national election in 2021. She has argued against splitting the two roles in the past... Her move comes after disastrous regional elections in Hesse and Bavaria for her Christian Democrats and their Bavarian sister party, the CSU.

Holger Schmieding, economist at Berenberg Bank, says

Her first step towards the exit adds to the risk that her coalition partner SPD will walk out of the Berlin coalition in late 2019 upon a mid-term review of the government’s agenda.

If Merkel were to lose her position as chancellor, the most likely outcome would be a CDU/CSU-Green-FDP coalition in Berlin led by somebody else from the CDU or - as a slightly less likely alternative - new elections.

Here are the main contenders for the CDU leadership:

  • Annegret Kramp-Karrenbauer, the CDU general secretary, appears to be Merkel‘s preferred choice
  • Armin Laschet, prime minister of North Rhine-Westphalia, Germany’s most populous state, whose experience would make him well suited to lead a “Jamaica“ coalition with the Greens and the FDP
  • Jens Spahn, the more conservative minister for health
  • Friedrich Merz, a conservative who once was Merkel’s rival and is reportedly ready to re-enter frontline politics.

Other candidates with fewer chances are: Peter Altmaier, the economy minister, Daniel Günther, the state prime minister of Schleswig Holstein and Julia Klöckner, the minister of agriculture.

On Wall Street, the Dow Jones climbed about 200 points at the open to 24,922.34, a gain of almost 1%.

Wall Street is also expected to rally when trading begins shortly.....

European markets are rallying

European stock markets are pushing higher, as traders try to put the nightmare of October behind then.

The FTSE 100 is now up 126 points, or 1.8%, as it bounces back from last week’s seven-month low.

Fiona Cincotta of City Index explains:

Strong earnings from banks and positive company news boosted European markets helping them to shrug of the gloom emanating from Asia.

HSBC’s strong results this morning certainly seem to have cheered the City; its shares are now up almost 6%.

Markets are up across Europe - bringing some relief to investors, after hitting their lowest levels since December 2016 last week.

Germany’s DAX index has jumped by over 2%, led by those car companies. Traders are clearly more excited by Chinese tax cuts than Angela Merkel’s political future....

In Milan, there’s mild jubilation that S&P didn’t downgrade Italy on Friday night.

Dean Popplewell of trading firm OANDA explains:

Italy’s 10-year BTP bond yield has fallen to a one-week low this morning, narrowing the gap to the German Bund, on relief that ratings agency Standard & Poor’s left the country’s credit rating unchanged.

China 'considering halving car tax'

Shares in European carmakers are surging, thanks to a report that China is considering halving the sales tax on most vehicles.

The move would help Beijing spur auto sales, as it tries to protect its economy from the chill winds of the US trade war.

Bloomberg has more details:

The country’s top economic planning body submitted a plan to key policymakers to lower the purchase tax to 5 percent for passenger vehicles with engines no bigger than 1.6 liters, according to people familiar with the matter.

No decision has been made on implementation, said the people, who asked not to be identified because the information isn’t public.

European car shares have jumped by over 4%, including by Volkswagen (+5.6%), Daimler (+4.6%) and BMW (+4.1%).

Elsewhere in the eurozone, Italy’s stock market is flying after S&P left the country’s credit rating unchanged on Friday night.

The FTSE MIB has leapt by 2.5%, and Italian government bonds are also rallying.

Euro drops as Merkel gives up CDU leadership

BREAKING: In a major development, Angela Merkel has decided not to stand for re-election as the chair of her CDU party in December.

Merkel took her decision after an election drubbing over the weekend, which saw voters in Hesse abandon the CDU in favour of the Green party and the anti-immigrant Alternative für Deutschland (AfD).

This could trigger a battle to succeed Merkel as Germany’s chancellor, a job she’s held since 2005 (and isn’t giving up yet...)

Here’s Reuters’s take:

German Chancellor Angela Merkel has told leaders of her Christian Democrats (CDU) that she will not seek re-election as party chairwoman at a conference in early December, a senior party source said.

Merkel has been CDU chairwoman since 2000 and giving up the role would start a race within the party to succeed her as chancellor.

The euro has promptly fallen by 0.4% to €1.138.

Support for the CDU in Hesse fell by 10 percentage points since the last election in 2013 - a major snub by voters.

Germany’s left-wing SPD party, who are in coalition with the CDU, also performed badly in Hesse, fuelling speculation that the coalition could collapse. More here:

Updated

European stock markets are all showing gains this morning.

Bank stocks are up, following HSBC’s strong results, along with healthcare groups and industrial companies.

HSBC drags Footsie back over 7,000 points

Banking giant HSBC is pulling the London stock market higher, after growing its profits sharply.

HSBC shares have leapt by 4% in early trading, after beating City expectations this morning.

The bank posted a 16% year-on-year rise in adjusted pre-tax profits to $6.19bn, ahead of its previous forecasts. Revenues rose 8.8% to $13.8bn, as its investment banking and wealth management divisions enjoyed a strong quarter. Three-quarters of HSBC’s profits came from Asia.

This has lifted the FTSE 100 up to 7002 points, up 62 points.

Laith Khalaf, senior analyst at Hargreaves Lansdown, says:

“HSBC may be the second biggest company on the UK stock market, but its profits are predominantly emanating from its historic home in the far east. Three quarters of the bank’s profits so far this year have come from its Asian operations, leaving the European business trailing in its wake.

Profit growth has been broad-based across HSBC’s main banking activities, and what’s positive is that’s coming from a rising top line rather than simply cost-cutting, which can only deliver results for so long. Indeed adjusted operating costs have actually ticked up, though that’s to support investment in growth opportunities, notably in the bank’s digital proposition.

As an international retail and commercial bank, HSBC is clearly plugged into the global economy, and in particular the fortunes of China and the surrounding area. While in the long term this looks like an ace in the sleeve, investors should expect a bumpy journey, particularly if Trump’s trade war dents growth in the region.’

Last week the US stock markets fell into correction territory, after several heavyweight companies posted disappointing results:

David Madden, market analyst at CMC Markets, says last week was grim:

Global stock markets had a terrible time last week as investor sentiment continued to sour. Concerns about higher interest rates in the US, along with political uncertainty in Italy as well as geopolitical concerns played on investors’ minds. Last week, Amazon and Alphabet both released quarterly figures and the revenue components missed market estimates and that added to the decline. The major US indices enjoyed a positive run over the summer, and there was a sense that valuations were lofty, particularly for the tech sector.

The S&P 500 is now in correction territory, which means it had fallen more than 10% from the recent peak, and this underlines how large the correction has been. The Shanghai Composite lost over 2% overnight after China confirmed that industrial profit fell for the fifth straight month.

Financial blogger Jeroen Blokland says a range of factors have hurt the markets this month. However, that doesn’t mean we’re facing a repeat of the 2008 crisis.

He writes:

This chart by Bloomberg shows that global equities have lost almost USD 8 trillion in market cap in October, the worst sell-off since 2008. However, the absolute numbers can be deceptive as the total market capitalization has increased by roughly 50% since start of the financial crisis.

But more importantly, while there are definitely a number of factors that are negatively impacting markets (China-US trade war, rising geopolitical risk, Italy’s massive debt pile – to name just a few), current economic circumstances make it less likely that a crisis like the one in in 2008 will happen now. Of course, things could change quickly, especially if market sentiment remains as depressed as it is now, but this might be a good moment to take a step back and refocus on the fundamentals.

Today’s losses in China suggest markets have further to fall, warns Hussein Sayed, chief market strategist at foreign exchange broker FXTM:

The steep sell-off in U.S. equity markets suggests October could be the worst month since the global financial crisis of 2008. Seven trillion dollars have already been wiped from the global market cap, and still there are no signs of bulls returning.

Chinese stocks fell today with the CSI 300 declining more than 3% while the Yuan remained trading near a decade low. The Nikkei 225 gave up gains of more than 1% to trade in negative territory. Moving against the trend were stocks in Australia, with the ASX 200 gaining more than 1% supported by the healthcare and telecom sectors.

The bears seem well in control of the market and there’re many reasons to justify their actions. Whether it’s weakening global economic growth, the ongoing U.S.-China trade war, monetary policy tightening, fears of a hard Brexit, Italy’s budget woes… and the list goes on. What is more interesting is that investors are even punishing companies that have reported positive earnings surprises.

The agenda: Markets edgy after rough October

Good morning, and welcome to our rolling coverage of the world economy, the financial markets, the eurozone and business.

October has been a pretty brutal month for the markets. Over the last four weeks, trillions of dollars of value have been wiped off bonds and shares, as nervous investors have sold up.

Bloomberg estimates that $8 trillion has been ‘lost’, amid fears over US interest rate hikes, the US-China trade war, Italy’s budget row and Brexit.

That would make October the worst month in a decade, since the collapse of Lehman Brothers.

They say:

Equities globally have lost almost $8 trillion of value this month, set for the biggest wipeout since the height of the financial crisis a decade ago on concerns ranging from the peak being past for earnings growth to the U.S.-China trade war to the end of central bank quantitative easing. Traders are paring wagers on Fed rate hikes for next year, with markets now expecting fewer than two quarter-point increases in 2019, compared with three that policy makers project.

“There’s room for a bit of a downside to go, because I do see this as being largely a structural shift in markets,” Kyle Rodda, a market analyst at IG Group in Melbourne, said on Bloomberg Television. “Sentiment is still to the downside, is still quite bearish and there will be a little while for this correction to play out.”

The new week has begun badly in China, where the Shanghai stock market has fallen over 2% today.

However, it’s a brighter picture in Europe. Britain’s FTSE 100 had jumped by 36 points, or 0.5%, after hitting a seven-month low on Friday night.

Perhaps the extra hour’s sleep has cheered traders up a bit.

Also coming up today.

It’s Budget Day in the UK. Chancellor Philip Hammond is expected to announce that the public finances aren’t as bad as previously thought, clearing the way for more spending on the NHS, help for UK high streets, money to build roads and fix potholes,

He could also tighten pension relief limits (taking money from higher earners) and raise income tax personal allowances (handing money back to them).

We also get new consumer credit and mortgage approvals figures from the Bank of England

The agenda:

  • 9.30am GMT: UK mortgage approvals and consumer credit figures
  • 3.30pm GMT: The Budget speech

Updated

 

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