Angela Monaghan 

Markets digest Fed rate hike as Argentina gets $57bn IMF bailout – as it happened

Investors take stock after mixed messages from the US Federal Reserve, as Argentina secures the biggest ever loan in the history of the International Monetary Fund
  
  

US Federal Reserve chairman Jerome Powell holds a press conference after the central bank raised interest rates for the third time this year
US Federal Reserve chairman Jerome Powell holds a press conference after the central bank raised interest rates for the third time this year
Photograph: China News Service/VCG via Getty Images

Closing summary

Sentiment among European investors has improved, with most major markets reversing earlier losses and following Wall Street higher.

The FTSE 100 is up 0.3% or 20 points at 7,531. In Italy, the FTSE MIB is still down 0.8% on those budget concerns, but losses have been trimmed.

Aside from the tensions in Italy over budget deficit targets, investors have been focused on events in the US, where the Federal Reserve raised rates for the third time this year on Thursday, citing confidence in the world’s largest economy.

There was respite for Argentina, after the IMF agreed to a loan of $57bn over the three years - the Fund’s largest ever loan.

In the UK, car manufacturing fell by 13% in August, marking the third monthly drop in a row.

That’s all for today. Thanks for all your comments and please join us again tomorrow.

Wall Street opens higher

The opening bell has rung and US markets have opened higher, helped by the Fed’s confidence in the strength of the economy:

  • Dow Jones: +0.2% at 26,448
  • S&P 500: +0.2% at 2,912
  • Nasdaq: +0.4% at 8,022

Sainsbury's and Asda could be forced to offload more than 460 stores

Sainsbury’s and Asda could be made to offload hundreds of stores if they are to win approval for their planned merger from the UK competition watchdog.

The Competition and Markets Authority (CMA) said it had found a “realistic prospect of a significant lessening of competition” in 463 places in the UK where local supermarkets’ catchment areas overlapped.

The finding is part of the CMA’s in-depth investigation into the planned merger of two of the UK’s “big four” supermarkets (the other two being Tesco and Morrisons).

Full story here:

Anthony Kurukgy, a trader at currency firm Foenix Partners, says the US GDP figures show the Fed’s Jerome Powell was justified in his positive view of the economy:

Today’s US GDP print remaining at 4.2% reaffirms the Federal Reserve’s bullish assessment of its economy in the latest FOMC meeting.

Having raised short term interest rates for the third time in 2018 this week, the Fed remain on course for further monetary tightening before the year is out, with the futures market heavily speculating a December rate increase.

With unemployment at multi-year lows and wage inflation accelerating to its quickest pace in 9-years, the Fed may have no other alternative.

US jobless claims rise more than expected

The number of Americans filing new claims for unemployment benefits rose more than expected last week, at a time when some workers were likely to have been displaced by Hurricane Florence.

Initial jobless claims rose by 12,000 in the week ending 22 September, to 214,000. The Labor Department also revised up the figure for the week before, by 1,000 to 202,000.

The four-week moving average was 206,250, an increase of 250 from the previous week’s revised average.

US economy: Q2 growth confirmed at 4.2%

The US economy grew at an annualised rate of 4.2% in the second quarter, data just out confirmed.

It was the Commerce Department’s third estimate, unchanged from the second quarter. It was the fastest rate of growth since the third quarter of 2014, and up from 2.2% in the first quarter.

The FTSE 100 is up 0.3% or 22 points, bucking the trend across Europe where the main markets are down.

The UK’s leading index is being boosted by a weaker pound, which is struggling against the dollar after last night’s US rate hike by the Federal Reserve.

  • FTSE 100: +0.3% at 7,533
  • Germany’s DAX: -0.1% at 12,369
  • France’s CAC: -0.1% at 5,509
  • Italy’s FTSE MIB: -1.2% at 21,396
  • Spain’s IBEX: -0.5% at 9,474
  • Europe’s STOXX 600: -0.2% at 384

Goldman Sachs launches account for UK savers

The US investment bank Goldman Sachs is targeting Britain’s savers with a new account that pays out 1.5% in annual interest.

Launching its Marcus savings account today, the Wall Street bank is hoping to appeal to UK savers who have suffered dwindling returns over the past decade as the Bank of England left interest rates at record lows below 1%.

At 1.5%, Goldman is offering the highest rate on the market, although it includes a bonus of 0.15% for the first 12 months. An account can be opened with as little as £1.

Des McDaid, Marcus’s managing director and formerly the head of savings at TSB, said:

Over the last decade savers have been on the wrong end of low interest rates.

We’ve spoken in depth to people across the country and there is a real disillusionment about savings – while most UK adults are diligently trying to save every month, some do not even have a savings account, with low interest rates and complexity being put to blame.

Read our full story here:

Updated

Tensions build in Italy ahead of budget deadline

Over in Rome, Guardian correspondent Angela Giuffrida reports on the latest developments on budget talks:

Tensions are rife in Italy as reports emerged that the presentation of the populist coalition government’s budget targets for 2019 could be delayed. By law, the targets must be presented by midnight.

For weeks, the government’s two deputy prime ministers – Luigi Di Maio, leader of the anti-establishment Five Star Movement, and Matteo Salvini, who heads up the far-right League – have been engaged in a bitter standoff with Giovanni Tria, the economy minister, who is trying to resist pressure to put together a budget that will see Italy’s deficit increase in order to pay for election campaign promises such as a basic income and flat tax.

Specifically, Di Maio is pushing hard for a 2.4% deficit target, while Salvini is also unwilling to soften the line on that either. They could well compromise on 2%, but anything beyond that would make it very difficult for Tria to stay.

A failure to agree to increase the deficit could see Tria out of a job. If the targets are not presented today then the only other option would be to resort to the fiscal goals, including a budget deficit target of 0.8%, outlined by the previous administration in the Economic and Financial Document (DEF) in April.

“The problem [with the DEF] is that the fiscal targets are much more aggressive than what the government wants, so politically it’s not an option, but legally it’s the only other option [if the budget gets delayed],” Wolfango Piccoli, the co-president of Teneo Intelligence, a research firm in London, told the Guardian.

Piccoli added that although “by law” the targets should be presented by midnight, this could well be ignored!

Updated

US futures are roughly flat ahead of the bell on Wall Street, as the Federal Reserve avoided rocking the boat on Thursday when it announced a 0.25 point rise in interest rates to 2.25%.

Not everybody was pleased with the decision, however, including Donald Trump who has said before he does not approve of the Fed’s rate hikes.

Speaking at a press conference in New York, the US President said:

Unfortunately they just raised interest rates a little bit because we are doing so well. I’m not happy about that.

I’d rather pay down debt or do other things, create more jobs.

Eurozone economic sentiment dips for 9th month

Optimism about prospects for the eurozone economy fell among industry and consumers for the ninth month in a row in September, according to a regular survey by the European Commission.

The economic sentiment indicator slipped to 110.9 from 111.6 in August, weaker than economists’ forecasts of 111.2 and the lowest level in 15 months.

Jack Allen, senior European economist at Capital Economics, says the survey is the latest evidence that economic growth in the single currency bloc is slowing gradually.

Consistent with the message from the hard data and the PMI surveys, the EC survey showed that the slowdown has been driven by the industrial sector, presumably reflecting the impact of a stronger currency and weaker growth in the currency union’s major trading partners.

Today’s data are not weak enough to deter the European Central Bank from ending its asset purchases this year. But they support the Bank’s cautious approach to interest rate hikes.

Brent crude oil prices are hovering just below the $82 barrel mark this morning, up 0.8% at $81.98, just off the near four-year highs achieved on Tuesday.

Prices are rising over fears of a supply shortage as Washington’ prepares to reimpose sanctions on Iran from 4 November.

UK car production falls 13% in August

The number of calls rolling of UK production lines fell for the third month in a row, according to figures from the Society of Motor Manufacturers and Traders.

The trade body said a total of 89,254 cars were built in UK factories last month, down 13% compared with the same month last year.

It was a weak picture all round, with cars built for the domestic market down 39% at 16,271, and those destined for overseas markets down 4% at 72,983.

Mike Hawes, chief executive of the SMMT, said:

The quieter summer months are often subject to fluctuations due to the variable timing and duration of annual maintenance and re-tooling shutdowns. This instability was exacerbated in August, with the industry racing to re-certify entire model ranges to meet tougher testing standards in force on September 1.

With exports, the majority to the EU, continuing to drive demand, it underscores the importance of a Brexit agreement to safeguard this trade; for our sector, ‘no deal’ is not an option.

In the first eight months of 2018, a total of 1.04m cars were built in the UK, down 5% compared with the same period last year.

Euro hit by Italian budget concerns

The euro is down 0.3% at $1.1703, with traders unsettled by reports of a row in Italy’s new government, ahead of a deadline to present its first budget.

Earlier it hit a one-week low of $1.1690 following a report in Italian newspaper, the Corriere della Sera that this afternoon’s budget meeting was likely to be delayed.

Investors are also concerned that the government will seek to increase next year’s budget deficit, potentially putting Italy on a collision course with the European Commission and investors who would like to see a cut.

European markets fall in early trading

Europe’s main markets have opened down, following in the wake of losses on Wall Street last night.

Italy’s FTSE MIB is down 1.8% as investor nerves rise about how budget talks will play out as the deadline looms.

  • FTSE 100: -0.1% at 7,505
  • Germany’s DAX: -0.5% at 12,329
  • France’s CAC: -0.2% at 5,501
  • Italy’s FTSE MIB: -1.8% at 21,268
  • Spain’s IBEX: -0.6% at 9,469
  • Europe’s STOXX 600: -0.3% at 384

Argentina gets biggest ever IMF loan at $57bn

Argentina was offered respite overnight after securing a $57bn loan from the International Monetary Fund.

The loan - which will be handed to Argentina in tranches over the next three years - is aimed at supporting the economy after a currency crisis which has seen a run on the peso, and double-digit inflation.

Rubber-stamping the loan, the IMF’s managing director, Christine Lagarde, said it was dependent on Argentina eliminating its deficit by 2019, but that the most vulnerable in society must be protected from further cuts.

She said:

Argentina has developed a strengthened economic plan that is aimed at bolstering confidence and stabilising the economy. At the core of the new plan is a fiscal policy aimed at strengthening its fiscal position and having a sustainable, appropriately financed budget, a strong monetary policy focused on reducing inflation, a floating exchange rate policy without intervention.

A central element of the authorities’ plan will be to reach budgetary balance by 2019, one year earlier than previously intended, and to move to a 1% primary surplus in 2020. These decisive steps will reduce the government’s financing needs and bring down public debt. Congressional approval of the 2019 budget will be an essential next step.

From the beginning, the Argentine authorities have made protecting the most vulnerable people in society a top priority in their economic reform plan. This remains a crucial component of this revised plan and is fully supported by the IMF.

Intro: Markets digest Fed rate hike as Argentina gets $57bn IMF bailout

Good morning, and welcome to our rolling coverage of the world economy, the financial markets, the eurozone and business.

Wall Street closed lower last night after the Federal Reserve delivered the widely expected 0.25 point rise in interest rates, to 2.25%.

European markets are expected to follow when markets open shortly:

While the rate decision itself surprised precisely nobody, investors paid closed attention to the wording of the accompanying statement for the Fed, and to comments made by chairman Jerome Powell at the press conference.

Powell’s message appeared to be slightly more dovish, painting a picture of a strong US economy, while also saying he doesn’t expect inflation to surprise on the upside. He was also asked about the risks of the trade war with China, which he suggested could start to come through over the longer term.

Michael Hewson, from CMC Markets, says the message from Powell was one of “constructive ambiguity”.

Fed chair Jay Powell’s comments that there was no evidence whatsoever of inflationary pressure knocked US yields which had been climbing in the lead up to this week’s meeting, down quite sharply, and also saw both the S&P500 and Dow finish the day lower.

That, combined with a slight nudge higher in the unemployment forecast gave the impression that US policymakers were slightly less optimistic about the long term future outlook than they were a few weeks ago, and this saw US yields slip back, as investors indulged in a spot of profit taking.

In some ways this is a welcome respite for emerging markets, where concern about rising US rates has been at its highest, while the US dollar was only slightly firmer, in the aftermath of the decision.

The Fed appears to have done it again in offering something for the doves as well as the hawks, while at the same time keeping borrowing costs on a fairly even keel. This constructive ambiguity keeps the optionality of another potential four rate rises on the table by the end of 2019, while at the same time hinting that a slowing economy might cause them to reassess that outlook over the next 12 months.

Also overnight, the IMF agreed its biggest ever bailout, loaning Argentina $57bn. More on that soon.

Coming up:

  • Deadline for Italy budget agreement
  • 10am BST: Eurozone business confidence survey for September
  • 1.30pm BST: US GDP for the second quarter, third estimate
  • 1.30pm BST: US weekly jobs claims
 

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