Graeme Wearden 

ECB to end QE in December, but keep rates at record lows – as it happened

European Central Bank has voted to stop its huge bond-buying programme, but interest rates will remain at record lows for a long time
  
  

Mario Draghi, President of the European Central Bank.
Mario Draghi, President of the European Central Bank. Photograph: Daniel Roland/AFP/Getty Images

Full story: ECB to pull plug on QE by Christmas

The European Central Bank has shrugged off evidence of a slowdown in the eurozone and announced that it will phase out the stimulus provided by its massive three-year bond-buying programme to the eurozone economy by the end of the year, our economics editor Larry Elliott writes.

Despite warning that the single currency area was going through a soft patch at a time when protectionist risks were rising, the ECB said it would wind down its bond purchases over the next six months.

The ECB is currently boosting the euro zone money supply by buying €30bn of assets each month, but this will be reduced to €15bn a month after September and ended completely at the end of the year.

The move follows strong pressure from some eurozone countries, led by Germany, that were uncomfortable about the more than €2.4tn of assets accumulated by the ECB since it launched its quantitative easing programme at the start of 2015.

Mario Draghi, the ECB’s president, said at the end of a meeting of the bank’s governing council in Latvia, that the QE programme had succeeded in its aim of putting inflation on course to meet its target of being below but close to 2%.

Eurozone activity has accelerated markedly over the past three years, with some estimates suggesting that QE contributed 0.75 percentage points a year to the average 2.25% annual growth rate.

The ECB’s statement reflected the battle between hawks and doves on the bank’s council, with the decision on QE matched by a softening of its approach to interest rates.

Draghi said there would be no prospect of an increase in the ECB’s key lending rate – currently 0.0% – until next summer at the earliest.

More here...

That’s all for today. Thanks for reading and commenting. GW

Markets surge as euro weakens

Europe’s stock markets have surged today, as traders take the ECB’s decision to end QE in their stride.

In London the FTSE 100 has jumped 62 points to 7765, a gain of 0.8%. There are headier gains across Europe, as the sliding euro boosts exporters.

David Madden of CMC Markets says Draghi’s pledge not to raise interest rates before next summer, at the earliest, cheered markets.

European stocks have soared as it appears the European Central Bank (ECB) won’t be hiking interest rates until at least the back end of 2019. Mario Draghi, the ECB chief, confirmed the stimulus package would be wound down in 2018, and we could see a taper of the bond buying scheme in the final quarter of this year.

The update was far more dovish than some traders were expecting, and the euro sold off heavily on the back of it. The slide in the single currency prompted buying of eurozone equities.

Mike Ingram, chief market strategist at WHIreland, agrees that Mario Draghi was more dovish than expected today.

The pledge not to raise interest rates for at least a year has caught traders unawares. It has trumped the decision to end the bond-buying stimulus programme in December - which is why the euro has fallen, not risen, today.

Ingram explains:

The ECB has (conditionally) pre-committed to keeping interest rates at their current, extraordinarily low levels until at least the summer of 2019 and in any event ‘as long as necessary’.

This sort of language was not expected from the ECB until the end of the 2018 and was the most biggest dovish surprise for markets. Up until this point, markets had been expecting about a 40% change on an ECB rate hike in a year’s time.

Elsewhere in the markets, some extremely strong US retail spending figures have cheered investors.

US retail sales jumped by 0.8% in May, new data shows, and were up 5.9% over the past 12 months.

That suggests US consumers are confident, and spending accordingly. And it means the US economy could be running faster than thought - perhaps at a sizzling annual rate of over 4%.

This has driven the US dollar higher, and helped to pull the euro and pound down.

It’s official: Greece has just unlocked the next €1bn of its bailout programme, having satisfied its lenders that its meeting its targets.

Over in Athens MPs have just approved the last multi-bill of reforms the country will have to take before its bailout expires this summer.

It means fresh austerity and economic reforms for Greece, as our correspondent Helena Smith reports.

Final results saw 154 deputies vote in favour of the draft bill – which foresees more pension cuts, labour market regulations, health care measures and sell-offs in the energy sector – and 144 against.

The ballot took place in an atmosphere of growing political drama in Athens following the decision of the main opposition conservative party to call a vote of no-confidence in prime minister Alexis Tsipras’ government over its handling of the Macedonia name row, and an accord unveiled earlier this week, that will see the Slavic state being renamed the Republic of North Macedonia.

Addressing parliament, Tsipras said he welcomed the motion.

Updated

Here’s Danielle Haralambous, UK Analyst at the Economist Intelligence Unit, on the ECB’s announcement and press conference:

“Mr Draghi acknowledged that risks from an increase in protectionism and financial market volatility had become more prominent, but maintained a relatively positive view of the outlook, brushing off signs of softer economic growth in the euro zone that prompted quite a sizeable a downward revision to the ECB’s forecast for 2018, to 2.1% from 2.4% previously. However higher oil prices and rising domestic cost pressures meant that the bank’s forecasts for inflation went up to 1.7% in both 2018 and 2019, from 1.4% previously.

Against this backdrop the ECB felt ready to announce moves towards a less accommodative policy stance, albeit not an overtly hawkish one. Principal payments from maturing securities under the asset purchase programme will continue to be reinvested, and the forward guidance on interest rates demonstrates that the bank is planning to keep policy loose for some time. Mr Draghi added that the ECB stands ready to adjust all of its instruments if necessary.

We had expected the ECB’s net monthly asset purchases to be reduced in the final months of 2018 and now expect a first move towards policy normalisation in 2019, with an increase in the deposit rate, and a rise in the main refinancing rate in early 2020. The next rate hike will probably be delivered by the successor to Mr Draghi, whose term ends in October 2019.”


Jan von Gerich, chief strategist at Nordea Markets, predicts that the ECB won’t raise interest rates until the end of next year:

Candice Bangsund, vice president and portfolio manager at Fiera Capital, says today’s meeting had something for hawks and doves.

“Despite political turmoil in the Eurozone’s periphery and a recent soft patch of economic results, the ECB has set the stage for an end of QE later this year. Indeed, for the hawks, the ECB announced that it will taper the pace of monthly asset purchases after September (from €30bn/month to €15bn/month) and then end the purchase program in December.

“However, for the doves – the ECB tempered this stance somewhat by reiterating its pledge that interest rates will remain unchanged until the back-half of 2019 (“at least through the summer of 2019”) – which is slightly longer than markets were expecting.”

And finally, Draghi denies that the ECB plotted against the new Italian government by stopping buying its bonds last month.

There’s not conspiracy here, he insists.

That’s the end of the press conference.

Draghi warns about impact of trade wars

Q: What impact will the US tariffs, and worries about a trade war, have on the Eurozone?

Draghi says that the ECB’s latest economic forecasts do not include the effects of trade measures that have not been implemented yet.

They only include measures that have already been imposed, and the impact of these is pretty limited.

Draghi then warns that trade discussions must take place within the “existing multilateral framework”.

That is as important as the nature of the measure under discussion, Draghi says sternly.

Otherwise, great damage could be caused if the multilateral framework created after the end of the second world war, and has helped create prosperity since, is undermined, he concludes.

Mario Draghi is declining to give more details about when eurozone interest rates might rise from their record lows.

It all depends when we achieve the necessary convergence, he says, adding tersely:

“If ‘through the summer’ meant September [2019], we would have said September”

Updated

Q: When might savers in the eurozone get some help from the ECB with an interest rate rise?

Draghi hits back, saying that savers benefit from the eurozone recovery - which more than makes up from the impact of low interest rates. The balance is vastly positive, he insists.

Draghi famously declared in 2012 that he would do ‘whatever it takes’ to save the euro.

He hasn’t lost that belief today, as he tells reporters that the euro is ‘irreversible’. He points out that 340 million people live in the eurozone, and more countries want to join.

Mario Draghi plays down the prospect that Italy creates a new eurozone crisis.

He says there was little “contagion” from Italy, and little “redenomination risk” (ie, that Italy leaves the euro and returns to the lira)

Draghi also plays down the political drama that unfolded in Rome this year:

We have 19 countries, we are bound to have 19 elections every now and then.

The important thing is that political changes are discussed within the current eurozone treaties, Draghi says.

Draghi says there has been much sacrifice and struggle in the eurozone, so it is important that the achievements achieved in recent years is not destroyed.

A reporter (rightly) ignores the warning not to ask about the allegations that Latvia’s central bank chief Ilmars Rimsevics has sought bribes.

Draghi refuses to comment about the case, but insists the ECB is not taking any sides.

Our mantra is to be patient, prudent, and persistent, declares Draghi.

He reveals that today’s decisions were unanimous.

Euro falls

The euro is falling more sharply as traders listen to Mario Draghi explain today’s decision.

It’s now down a whole cent against the US dollar, at $1.169.

The fall accelerated as Draghi warned about rising economic uncertainty, and reiterated that the ECB was in no rush to raise interest rates.

A weak currency will not worry the ECB though -- it should help exporters, and keep inflation rising towards their target.

Q: Why does the ECB think risks are broadly balanced? Where do you see upside risks?

Draghi says there is undeniably an increased risk in global political uncertainty [a downside risk].

But on growth, Draghi predicts “positive surprises” from the fiscal expansion in the United States, and - in the medium term - in the eurozone.

Onto questions (after a warning to reporters not to mention the corruption allegations against Latvia’s central bank governor - who isn’t allowed into today’s press conference).

Q: Do you expect to raise interest rates before you leave the ECB in October 2019?

Draghi says the ECB governing council didn’t discuss when they might raise interest rates, and then adds that economic uncertainty is rising.

He points out that eurozone growth slowed to 0.4% in the first quarter of 2018, down from 0.7% in the last quarter of 2017.

Draghi: Eurozone politicians must do more

Draghi ends his statement by calling on eurozone politicians to up their game.

Draghi says the implementation of structural reforms in euro area countries needs to be “substantially stepped up” to increase resilience, reduce structural unemployment and boost euro area productivity and growth potential.

He also calls for eurozone countries to rebuild their “fiscal buffers”, and appears to single out Italy, saying:

This is particularly important in countries where government debt remains high.

That looks like a warning shot to the new Italian government not to boost government spending and cut taxes.

The ECB has also hiked its forecast for inflation this year and in 2019.

It now expects the price of living to rise by 1.7% per year, up from 1.4% previously. That’s due to the higher oil price.

That’s bad news for households (although the ECB will see it as a success, as it is aiming for inflation close to 2%).

Updated

ECB cuts growth forecast, blames trade wars

Boom! The ECB has cut its forecast for growth this year.

It now expects eurozone GDP to increase by 2.1% this year, down from 2.4% back in March.

President Draghi says that global risks have risen in recent months, and points to rising protectionism -- a clear nudge towards Donald Trump who has imposed tariffs on European steel and aluminium makers.

Growth in the eurozone economy is solid, and broad-based, Mario Draghi says.

But growth had moderated due to temporary factors, he adds, such as weaker trade with the rest of the world.

We stand ready to adjust all our instruments as appropriate to ensure that we meet our inflation goals, Draghi continues.

That’s a reminder that today’s decisions aren’t set in stone - the ECB can change policy whenever it deems it appropriate.

Mario Draghi begins by saying that the governing council undertook a careful assessment of the progress of its asset-purchase scheme, and of the inflation situation.

The governing council concluded that there has been “substantial” progress towards a sustained adjustment of inflation towards the ECB’s target (of just below 2%).

He confirms what we already know - that the ECB will maintain its asset purchase scheme at €30bn per month until September, then drop to €15bn until December, and then stop.

Draghi also confirms that interest rates have been left unchanged at their record lows, and will remain there until “at least the summer of 2019”.

The ECB president declares:

Today’s monetary policy decisions maintain the current ample degree of monetary accommodation that will ensure the continued sustained convergence of inflation towards levels that are below, but close to, 2% over the medium term.

Watch the ECB press conference here

ECB president Mario Draghi has arrived at his press conference in Riga, to explain today’s decisions.

Some history: The ECB launched its QE programme back in early 2015, as policymakers tried to fight off the threat of deflation and persistently weak growth.

It began by buying €60bn of eurozone bonds each month -- despite opposition from some countries, such as Germany, who worried that the ECB could be monetising eurozone debt.

The ECB was late to the QE party - the Bank of England and the US Federal Reserve both moved much faster. But it made up for lost time by raising its bond-buying to €80bn per month, and extending the programme until this autumn.

Having originally planned to buy €1 trillion of bonds, the ECB has ended up expanding its balance sheet by over €2.6 trillion.

QE has been criticised for making the wealthy wealthier (as it pushes up asset prices). Central bankers, though, argue that it keeps unemployment down - and that politicians should address the ‘distributional consequences’ of their actions (perhaps through a wealth tax).

So, has QE worked? Well, inflation has finally moved close to the ECB’s target and unemployment is at a 10-year low. That looks like success.

Swiss bank UBS argued last week that QE actually saved the eurozone, by giving it a growth jolt at a vital time.

But you could argue that policies such as QE have also fed into the rise of populist parties, and helped European politicians to put off trick decisions about eurozone integration. Historians will give their verdict eventually....

Jefferies: ECB has taken the plunge

Here’s Marchel Alexandrovich, senior European economist at Jefferies, on the ECB’s decision:

“The ECB takes the plunge and announces a three months taper to finish QE at the end of December (€15bn per month in Oct, Nov. Dec).

The reinvestments commitment stays in place. And in terms of interest rates they will remain on hold until “at least through the summer of 2019”.

So the ECB is sending a signal that rates are to remain on hold for 6-9 months after QE finishes.

Draghi’s last Press Conference and Q&A is on 24 October 2019 (he leaves the ECB at the end of October 2019) – so the focus will now be on whether he can raise rates before he departs.”

Remember: Mario Draghi will explain today’s decision in around 20 minutes. Stay tuned!

Today’s decision is something of a surprise. Many economists had expected the ECB would delay a final decision on its QE programme until its July meeting.

But instead, Mario Draghi and colleagues have bitten the bullet and decided to stop buying eurozone government bonds with newly created money.

The governing council was split between hawkish members who argued that QE had run its course, and doves who worried at the eurozone economy wasn’t strong enough to cope without stimulus.

Carsten Brzeski says the council have reached a wise compromise:

Euro falls!

You might have expected the euro to rally, on the back of the ECB’s historic decision to end its huge bond-buying programme.

But instead, the single currency is dropping sharply - probably because the ECB has also promised not to raise interest rates for some time.

The euro is now down 0.5% against the US dollar at $1.173.

Updated

ECB: Interest rates probably on hold until 2019

In another important move, the ECB has also pledged to keep interest rates unchanged until at least the middle of next year.

That means the headline cost of borrowing will probably remain at zero for many months to come. Banks will continue to be charged a negative interest rate of -0.4%, in an attempt to get them lending.

The ECB says:

The Governing Council expects the key ECB interest rates to remain at their present levels at least through the summer of 2019 and in any case for as long as necessary to ensure that the evolution of inflation remains aligned with the current expectations of a sustained adjustment path.

ECB votes to end QE bond-buying in December

NEWSFLASH: The European Central Bank has decided to end its bond-buying stimulus programme!

The ECB has decided to halve the pace of its QE programme after September to just €15bn per month, from €30bn per month at present.

And then it will stop buying new bonds altogether at December.

That’s a significant move; the ECB has decided that it can finally take away the punch bowl of easy money and ultra-loose monetary policy.

The ECB says:

At today’s meeting, which was held in Riga, the Governing Council of the ECB undertook a careful review of the progress towards a sustained adjustment in the path of inflation, also taking into account the latest Eurosystem staff macroeconomic projections, measures of price and wage pressures, and uncertainties surrounding the inflation outlook.

Based on this review the Governing Council made the following decisions:

As regards non-standard monetary policy measures, the Governing Council will continue to make net purchases under the asset purchase programme (APP) at the current monthly pace of €30 billion until the end of September 2018. The Governing Council anticipates that, after September 2018, subject to incoming data confirming the Governing Council’s medium-term inflation outlook, the monthly pace of the net asset purchases will be reduced to €15 billion until the end of December 2018 and that net purchases will then end.

More to follow!

Updated

Today’s meeting is in Riga, as part of the ECB’s policy of taking the governing council around the eurozone.

But it’s not great timing, as Latvia’s central bank governor instead fighting corruption allegations and is barred by national authorities from even entering the central bank #awkward

ECB decision looms over the markets

Tension is mounting in the markets as we await the European Central Bank’s decision on monetary policy, in under 25 minutes time.

As explained earlier, traders are desperate to know whether the ECB has taken a decision on its bond-buying stimulus programme, which is due to expire in September.

The meeting comes at a fascinating time. There’s a new populist government getting to work in Italy, trade war tensions growing among G7 members, and some signs that the eurozone economy has entered a softer patch just as inflation picks up.

Chris Beauchamp, chief market analyst at IG Group, says the ECB has a lot on its plate.

“Usually hints on policy come from anonymous ‘ECB sources’ but last week’s decision by the chief economist, Peter Praet, to go on manoeuvres and make statements about the QE programme could represent a major shift. It looks like the bank is prepared to discuss moving towards an end date for its QE programme, even if that end-date is still further away than many expect.

“To give the ECB its due, it does look like the eurozone recovery is firmly in place. As we discussed here, the eurozone economy is still seeing increased strength, with unemployment falling overall and consumer spending rising, and even recent weakness in the composite PMI is not necessarily a cause for concern given the overall strength of the past year.

“Inflation has also begun to pick up, with CPI rising to 1.9% for May, close to the bank’s 2% target. Sustained price growth above this level has yet to be seen, but the overall trend is still higher from the lows of early 2016.

There’s more political drama in Greece; the opposition has called a no-confidence vote!

It’s related to the “Macedonia issue”. Earlier this week, the tiny Balkan state agreed to rename itself as the “Republic of North Macedonia” following negotiations with Greece (whose territory includes the province of Macedonia).

Macedonia’s president then pulled the plug on the deal, arguing that too many concessions had been made to Greece. But the Greek opposition also criticised the deal, given the importance of Macedonia (Alexander the Great and all that) in its history.

Back in the eurozone, Greek MPs are preparing to vote today on the last omnibus bill of reforms-for-rescue funds the debt-stricken country must take before its current bailout ends.

Helena Smith reports from Athens:

After being the focus of parliamentary debate for much of the week, the multi-bill will be voted on this afternoon. This will be the last time MPs are called to pass deeply unpopular reforms, or ‘prior actions,’ demanded of Athens if it is to successfully complete its last inspection review in time to exit the country’s third bailout in August.

It’s taken the best part of a decade but never again will they have to vote on pension cuts, labour market reforms and energy sector privatisations – all outlined in the bill – to secure the funds needed to keep Greece afloat.

Unions are NOT missing the chance to take to the streets in protest with a barrage of strikes being announced to coincide with the vote. Public sector workers have already begun amassing for a march on parliament.

The leftist-led government, however , is keen to rush through the legislation so that euro area finance ministers can begin discussing debt relief at their next meeting on June 21st.

Addressing MPs, the country’s finance minister Euclid Tsakalotos insisted Greece would not be needing further aid in the form of a precautionary credit line when the foreign funds officially expire.

The governor of the Bank of Greece, Yannis Stournaras, has openly opposed that view saying a credit line “even if never used” is essential to the country’s post-bailout return to normality.

“There will not be a precautionary credit line so that you can call it a fourth memorandum,” Tsakalotos told opposition MPs earlier this week using the official term used to describe Greece’s bailout programs.

“What there will be is a system of enhanced surveillance without preconditions, without money and without other measures.”

Updated

Full story: UK retail sales pick up

Here’s economics editor Larry Elliott on the recovery in UK retail sales last month:

Better weather brought some much-needed respite to Britain’s struggling retail sector last month as the hottest May on record brought consumers flocking back to the high street.

The volume of goods sold in shops and online was 1.3% up on April – comfortably beating predictions in the financial markets of a 0.5% increase.

The Office for National Statistics said feedback from retailers suggested that a hot, dry spell and royal wedding celebrations boosted spending in supermarkets and household goods stores during the month.

Annual growth in retail sales picked up sharply from 1.4% to 1.9%, although the ONS said that was partly due to a weak month for consumer spending in May 2017.

In the three months to May – a better guide to the trend than one month’s data – retail sales volumes rose by 0.9%. The latest three-month period includes both the weakness caused by the “beast from the east” cold snap and the more recent bounce back in consumer spending.

Samuel Tombs, of PantheonMacro, said “The jump in retail sales in May has all the hallmarks of a weather-related blip, rather than a sustainable pick-up in spending. Overall growth was boosted by sharp increases in sales of clothing, sporting goods and garden items, up 1.7%, 3.3% and 6.2% month-to-month, respectively.

The CBI’s chief economist, Alpesh Paleja, is also worried about the underlying trends in UK retail:

Jacob Nell, Morgan Stanley’s chief UK economist, cautions that “idiosyncratic factors” - including sunny weather and the Royal Wedding - flattered UK retail sales last month.

But still, the growth was broad-based:

The jump in retail sales last month is encouraging, but it won’t get Britain’s high street out of trouble.

So argues Ben Brettell, senior economist at Hargreaves Lansdown, who points to the relentless advance of internet shopping:

Despite today’s positive report from the ONS, news from individual companies continues to paint a somewhat gloomy picture for the UK’s bricks-and-mortar retailers.

House of Fraser and Poundworld are the latest names to run into trouble. With the most recent set of numbers from online fashion retailer boohoo.com showing a 49% jump in UK sales, it’s not difficult to work out where those high street customers have been going.

Ted Baker’s results earlier this week were notable for showing some positive growth, but even that was driven by a 33.6% increase in online sales. However, a good result from the UK wholesale business suggests that Ted’s higher price point and quirky style are helping to insulate it from the worst of the downturn.

That supports our belief that the names that survive the current turbulence will be those that treat high street shopping as a pastime rather than an essential. Just as the days of nipping out to the local bakers every morning is a thing of the past, so too is a trip to M&S for a white shirt and packet of socks – the artisanal shop looks like the future of the high street.

Ian Gilmartin, head of retail & wholesale at Barclays Corporate Banking, is encouraged by the jump in retail sales:

“Record breaking temperatures in May had shoppers running to the tills to stock up on food and drink, with DIY and garden stores also receiving a boost from the warm weather. The really encouraging aspect to today’s figures is the breadth of positive data, with growth posted across the different parts of the retail sector. We shouldn’t get carried away as it’s still very tough out there, but the truth is that despite continued rumours of the demise of our retail industry, many retailers are simply getting on with the job and continuing to attract customers through their doors.

Football fever could give retailers another lift, he adds:

Of course, we’re not going to have a heatwave and a Royal Wedding to help drive sales every month, but the World Cup kick off should help supermarkets in particular maintain this momentum over the next month or so.”

Updated

The recent pick-up in UK wages may also be driving retail sales higher, suggests Chris Williamson of Markit.

The unexpectedly strong UK retail sales figures have sent the pound sharply higher.

Sterling is up 0.5% at $1.344, as traders predict that an August interest rate hike is more likely.

More on the Meghan and Harry effect from the ONS:

Food stores provided a positive contribution to growth with supermarkets commenting on good sales in celebration of the Royal Wedding during good weather.

UK retail sales smash forecasts

Newsflash: UK retail sales were stronger than expected in May, new figures from the Office for National Statistics show.

Sales volumes jumped by 1.3% compared to April, smashing forecasts of a 0.3% rise.

On an annual basis, the amount sold by retailers jumped by 3.9%, with growth across the board:

The ONS says there are two factors - good weather in May, and the Royal Wedding of Prince Harry and Meghan Markle (now the Duchess of Sussex).

This encouraged spending on food (all those Royal Wedding BBQs?) and on household goods.

Retail sales had been suppressed by the bad weather earlier in the year, when ice and snow kept shoppers off the streets. Things seem to be improving now, though, with sales rising in line with temperatures:

Today’s ECB meeting is the first since Italy’s new coalition government was sworn in, and began announcing policies that could breach Europe’s budget rules.

A clash is brewing between Brussels and Rome, even though Italy’s new finance minister has insisted the country is committed to the euro.

The ECB is often accused of being too political -- Mario Draghi regularly chides elected politicians to implement structural reforms.

But on this occasion, the governing council may be keen to take its big decisions on QE before a crisis blows up.

Bank of America Merrill Lynch say:

“We believe the ECB may be in a hurry to close the QE chapter,”

“We think this is essentially political, as the ECB would not want its monetary policy to be affected by claims of supporting or conversely impairing the new policy course in Italy.”

ECB meeting: What the experts say

Economists and investors are split over whether the European Central Bank will make a decision about its stimulus programme today, or kick the can down the road to July’s mereting.

Elsa Lignos of Royal Bank of Canada predicts the ECB will have an “active debate” about whether to let its QE programme expire in September.

However, she doesn’t expect the final decision until July’s meeting, adding:

The other point of focus should be the updated staff forecasts, and in particular the 2020 inflation forecast (currently at 1.7%). We look for an upward revision, which would be positive for the euro – though unclear whether that will be enough given yesterday’s rally.

The first hike is currently priced for June 2019 but with the deposit rate [on bank deposits at the ECB] at -0.4%, there is a long way to go to get to neutral.

Draghi will almost certainly be grilled on the Italian situation in the Q&A but we doubt that he will let himself be drawn in.

Paul Donovan of UBS Wealth Management suggests we shouldn’t expect a major announcement from the ECB today:

ECB President Draghi’s extensive rehabilitation to overcome an addiction to easing seems to have paid off.

There are hopes of either 1) an announcement of the timetable to end bond buying, or 2) an announcement of an announcement of the timetable to end bond buying.

Marchel Alexandrovich, senior european economist at Jefferies, says investors want to know more than just the end-date of QE:

After more than three years of QE, and against the background of what Peter Praet judges to be improving inflation dynamics, the ECB is preparing to end its net asset purchases. Whether the formal announcement comes this week, or in July (our guess), and what profile the taper will take (a straight 3 months drawdown to zero, or something more creative) are the immediate questions.

But at this point in the process, a few months and a few extra billion in purchases either way are not crucial; the markets are more focused on how the ECB amends its interest rate guidance, any technical changes around bond reinvestments and whether Draghi delivers a relatively dovish taper by leaving the door open to the possibility of restarting the programme if the recovery were to splutter.

Markets in the red after Fed raises rates

European stock markets are in the red this morning, as central banks hog the headlines.

The FTSE 100 dropped nearly 50 points at the open (-0.6%) and there are similar losses in Frankfurt, Paris, Milan and Madrid:

This follows a down day on Wall Street, where the Dow lost 119 points to 25,201 points last night.

Traders are worried that the Federal Reserve will raise US interest rates too aggressively over the next 18 months.

The Fed is now forecasting four hikes in 2018 (we’ve had two already) and three in 2019. That would take borrowing costs up to 3.25%.

Lee Wild, head of equity strategy at interactive investor, explains:

As Fed chairman Jerome Powell acknowledges, the risk remains that officials overcook it and bring an end to the Trump trade once and for all.

Achieving the ‘not too fast, not too slow’ Goldilocks approach to monetary policy will be key to extending the equities bull run.

Updated

The agenda: ECB decision; UK retail sales

Good morning, and welcome to our rolling coverage of the world economy, the financial markets, the eurozone and business.

All eyes are on Riga as the European Central Bank weighs up whether to pull the plug on its stimulus programme, despite signs that the eurozone recovery is slowing.

The ECB governing council faces a tricky decision as it holds its monetary policy meeting in Latvia today. Its huge bond-buying stimulus programme runs out in September, so policymakers must decide whether to call time - or extend the scheme into 2019.

The ECB has bought more than €2.5 trillion bonds under its quantitative easing (QE) programme, in an attempt to fight off deflation. It’s currently committed to buying €30bn per month until September.

Hawks on the council believe the scheme has run its course, and would like to pull the plug. But, with growth slowing in the eurozone - particularly in Germany - and geopolitical tensions growing, the ECB may be reluctant to turn off the QE tap.

A decision could be delayed until July’s meeting, but at the very least the governing council must discuss the issue today. They must tread cautiously, or risk spooking the markets and triggering a sell-off.

Traders will be keen to hear Mario Draghi’s views at the press conference following the decision. President Draghi should expect questions on trade war fears, and the new government in Italy.

Konstantinos Anthis, head of research at ADS Securities, explains:

The stakes are high for the ECB President, and for many people he has to send a message that the European central bank is planning to end its asset purchases’ program and the date to start that has to be September.

There has been a lot of chatter leading up to this meeting and if, for whatever reason, Draghi fails to deliver what investors expect then the euro will be in trouble.

The ECB will also release its latest growth and inflation projections, which will help determine what they do today.

Whatever the ECB decides, they are lagging far behind their counterparts across the Atlantic. Last night the US Federal Reserve vote to raise American interest rates to 2%, and signalled that it expects two more hikes this year.

Fed chair Jerome Powell insisted that America’s economy can handle higher borrowing costs, declaring:

“The decision you see today is another sign the US economy is in great shape.

“Growth is strong, labour markets are strong, inflation is close to target.”

Also coming up

It’s been a tough few months for UK retailers, with tens of thousands of job cuts and several chains shutting down. So the latest UK retail sales figures, due this morning, could be interesting. Economists predict growth slowed to 0.3% in May, down from 1.3% in April

Plus, it’s a bad day for Rolls-Royce workers as the engineering firm announces thousand of job cuts.

The agenda

  • 9.30am BST: UK retail sales for May
  • 12.45pm BST: ECB decision on interest rates and QE
  • 1.30pm BST: ECB press conference with president Mario Draghi
 

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