What will you be watching on Christmas Day? Millions of us will choose ITV’s Victoria over EastEnders on the BBC, Call the Midwife rather than Bake Off on Channel 4. The battle for the box was once as festive as turkey with all the trimmings, but could soon be as archaic as tying real candles to the tree.

The chances are that anyone under 24 in your house is much more likely to be slumped over their phone or other mobile device. Last year, 12% of 16-to-24-year-olds watched television from subscription video on demand (Netflix, Amazon et al) compared with 5% of total UK video viewers. In 10 years’ time, 40% of their viewing will be on demand, according to research by Enders Analysis. In contrast, more than 90% of their parents (or the over-55s) will still be looking at the TV schedules to see what’s on.

Streaming services have two huge advantages over their terrestrial rivals: they don’t have to bother with pesky regulations like watersheds (which make them even more attractive to teenagers) and they have lots of money to spend, mainly on high-cost drama.

So is it all over for public service broadcasters at Christmas? Leaving aside the fact that the oldest family members usually get to control the remote, drama accounts for just 17% of UK viewing. More than 85% of all TV watching is news, sport and everything else. What’s more, nearly half of those watching drama are watching homegrown soaps – sitting next to teenagers on their phones.