Nick Fletcher 

Pound edges up as UK economy grows by 0.3% in second quarter – as it happened

Sterling in focus again as 0.3% GDP growth is confirmed
  
  

Pound slips ahead of UK growth figures
Pound slips ahead of UK growth figures Photograph: Yui Mok/PA

Summary

The UK economy grew by 0.3% in the third quarter, in line with the initial estimates.

But consumer spending, exports and business investment all proved disappointing. The weak pound following the Brexit vote has hit people’s pockets but not proved as much of a benefit to exporters as expected. The consumer squeeze left retail sales at their weakest since July 2016, according to the CBI.

And although the third quarter figure was an improvement on the 0.2% growth in the first three months of the year, it still means the UK is showing the slowest growth among the G7 economies.

But the pound regained some ground following the GDP numbers, after languishing at 8 year lows against the euro. Investors remained cautious ahead of Friday’s key speeches from the ECB and Federal Reserve at the Jackson Hole symposium in the US.

Meanwhile UK car production grew in July ahead of the summer shutdown.

Elsewhere the Spanish economy continued to put in a good performance, while French business confidence rose in August.

In the US weekly jobs claims edged higher but were lower than analyst forecast.

On the stock markets, the FTSE 100 is up 0.5% and the FTSE 250 is holding steady despite a slump in Dixons Carphone shares after a surprise profit warning.

Germany’s Dax is up 0.5% and France’s Cac has climbed 0.3%.

On that note, it’s time to close for the day. Thanks for all your comments, and we’ll be back tomorrow.

On the US jobs figures, Dennis de Jong, managing director of UFX.com, said:

Today’s initial jobless claims data, while up from last month, will be welcome news for President Trump as his government continues pointing to solid labor market figures as the benchmark for economic strength.

The US President took to social media earlier this week to claim his tenure at the White House has already created over one million jobs and, while figures may be debated, jobless claims look to be heading towards a multi-decade low.

However, despite the figures remaining under the 250k target, it seems today’s data will do little to shift the market’s bearish view of the dollar at present.

Trump’s ‘government shut down’ claims earlier this week have done nothing to help investors buy the greenback, but continued improvement on the employment situation certainly won’t harm long term aspirations for US economy growth.

US weekly jobless claims rise

Weekly initial jobless claims in the US rose last week but by slightly less than expected.

They climbed from 232,000 the week before to 234,000, but this was below the forecast of 238,000.

US rates could rise again this year - Kansas Fed president

The Jackson Hole meeting of central bankers, sponsored by the Kansas City Federal Reserve, is in focus because of speeches by ECB boss Mario Draghi and Fed chair Janet Yellen.

Draghi’s speech will be closely watched for clues about an end to its bond buying programme, while Yellen is expected to comment on the prospect of future rate rises.

Ahead of the meeting, Kansas City Fed president Esther George has been promoting the idea of more rate increases.

The weak pound is hitting consumer spending more than it is benefiting exporters, it seems. Our economics editor Larry Elliott writes:

The downside to a weak pound is immediately apparent because imports get dearer and foreign holidays get more expensive. With sterling at its lowest level for eight years, there have been plenty of horror stories of travellers from the UK being gouged by foreign exchange bureaux.

The benefits of a weaker currency tend to be less obvious but are potentially significant nonetheless. Exports become cheaper and the UK becomes a more attractive destination for overseas tourists. This leads to an improvement in the balance of payments, something that is sorely needed in Britain’s case.

A breakdown of the UK’s latest growth figures shows that the impact of a lower pound on consumption is coming through much more quickly than its impact on trade. A year after the sharp depreciation of the pound in the wake of the Brexit vote, household spending growth has virtually stalled...

Meanwhile, net trade – which measures how imports and exports have changed over the latest quarter – contributed a big fat zero to growth in the three months to June.

Larry’s full analysis is here:

More UK recession talk:

Today’s mini-recovery in sterling is hardly convincing. Connor Campbell, financial analyst at Spreadex, said:

The bar has been set so low for the pound this week that the confirmation of a measly 0.3% Q2 GDP reading gave the currency a helping hand.

Investors clearly weren’t ready to take a look at the ins and outs of the GDP report – household spending growth is at its lowest since the end of 2014, while business investment plunged from 0.6% in Q1 to 0.0% in Q2. Instead ignoring all this cable climbed 0.1%, flopping back over $1.28, while against the euro the pound jumped 0.4%. As ever it is important to note that kind of growth barely begins to scratch the surface of the losses suffered by the pound against its Eurozone peer this summer, with sterling still stuck under €1.09.

The pound may be edging up after the GDP data, but trade weighting sterling - a measure based on how much trade is done with different countries and in various currencies - is close to a record low.

At the moment it is up 0.27% at 74.8, but is not far off the trough of 73.3 reached in December 2008 during the financial crisis. The pound has been hit by continuing concerns about the Brexit negotiations, as well as recent strength in the euro.

Retail sales weakest since July 2016 - CBI

More signs of weak UK consumer spending.

Retail sales are at their weakest since July 2016 according to the latest CBI report. Its distributive trades survey showed a retail sales balance of -10, compared to +22 in July and the expectation of a figure of +14.

Anna Leach, CBI Head of Economic Intelligence, said:

Despite the warmer weather at the start of the month, retail sales have cooled as higher inflation continues to squeeze consumers’ pockets. Meanwhile, deteriorating sentiment regarding the business situation has combined with falling headcount among retailers.

Looking ahead, firms do expect sales growth to recover, but the pressures on household budgets are set to persist, given little sign of wages picking up.

The CBI said:

Grocers saw stable sales on the year, following strong growth last month, and footwear and leather performed well, whilst specialist food and drink stores reported another month of significantly falling sales.

Year-on-year internet sales growth slowed, edging further below the long-run average, but growth is expected to pick up next month.

Updated

Here is our GDP story, focusing on the weak consumer spending figures. Richard Partington reports:

Spending by British consumers is growing at the weakest rate in almost three years, as households squeezed by rising prices tighten their belts.

Household spending growth slowed to 0.1% in the three months to June, the Office for National Statistics said, the slowest rate of quarterly growth since the final three months of 2014. Business investment in the British economy showed no growth at all in the second quarter.

The slowdown in private consumption, which was worse than expected by City economists, comes as rising inflation and weaker levels of wage growth puts the squeeze on household budgets. The slump in the value of the pound since the UK’s vote to leave the European Union last year is also taking its toll.

Howard Archer, the chief economic adviser to the EY Item Club, said: “Consumer spending is likely to be pressurised through the latter months of the year by an ongoing appreciable squeeze on purchasing power. Indeed, real incomes growth is likely to remain negative for some months to come.”

Some of the fall in household spending could be down to consumers shifting their car purchases to beat a tax change earlier this year, according to analysts at Capital Economics. “We remain optimistic that a modest acceleration in growth in the second half of the year is in prospect,” said Paul Hollingworth, UK economist at the consultancy.

The full story is here:

Updated

Guardian economics writer Phillip Inman says the lack of an export surge in the latest GDP figures to counter higher priced imports has left Britain with a trade problem:

A significant depreciation of sterling in the wake of the Brexit vote was expected to boost exports. It has a little, but not enough to offset the extra cost from more expensive raw materials.

It means that the latest figures for second quarter GDP show that net trade was zero, putting a drag on GDP growth. And it has dragged since sterling first began to depreciate at the end of 2015.

As Samuel Tombs, UK economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics points out, this contrasts with the boost to GDP from net trade that has followed every depreciation in the pound since the second world war.

The reason could be that Brexit uncertainty has encouraged a degree of reticence among exporters. But more likely, the explanation lies in the changing nature of supply chains that send parts all over the world and back again, turning almost every component in a manufactured good into an import at some stage of the process.

The fluctuations in the pound continue.

Sterling has now risen 0.17% to $1.2820 while it is 0.31% better against the euro at €1.0873.

Updated

More reaction to the GDP numbers:

Lee Hopley, chief economist at manufacturers’ organisation EEF:

Today’s GDP revisions tell a familiar story for the UK economy for the first half of this year. We’ve got weaker growth – relative to both our performance in the past couple of years and increasingly our developed world counterparts. The most recent three months growth has been almost entirely reliant on spending by households and government, and depending too much on the former looks risky given the continuing squeeze on real incomes.

Another quarter passes without any sustained positive contribution from either net trade or business investment, which doesn’t feel like the most stable of foundations for a post-Brexit economy. While businesses will continue to grapple with Brexit related uncertainty the need for a clear industrial strategy to spur investment and capitalise on growth in world markets is becoming ever clearer.”

Ian Stewart, chief economist at Deloitte:

The post-referendum drop in the pound has knocked consumer spending and hit growth. UK exporters are upbeat, but this has not yet to translate into stronger export volumes. Over the next 18 months the UK will likely see subpar growth, but exports and manufacturing can help offset the headwinds from a weaker consumer.

UK is slowest growing G7 economy this year

The UK is the slowest growing G7 economy this year, with the Brexit risk dampening business investment and the pound’s fall hurting consumers more than it helped exports, according to Pantheon Macroeconomics.

Chief UK economist Samuel Tombs said:

Looking ahead, we expect the economy to continue to struggle, with GDP rising by just 0.2% in both Q3 and Q4. Recent surveys of export orders have picked up, but exporters are too reliant on imports for net trade to fully offset a further slowdown in consumers’ spending. Indeed, CPI inflation still has further to climb, and the sharp fall in consumers’ confidence over the last two months suggests that households won’t continue to cut their saving rate. Meanwhile, we expect Brexit risk to increasingly bear down on business investment as the UK’s exit date draws nearer.

Updated

UK could see "recession in 2018"

Here’s some commentary on the GDP figures:

Jeremy Cook, chief economist at WorldFirst:

Consumption, the engine of UK growth for decades, looks like it is finally starting to slow in response to the reality that the post-EU referendum economy now faces.

Consumers are tightening their belts in the face of higher prices and lower wage settlements while businesses, unable to protect margins given higher input costs, are holding back on investment as the nature of the UK’s trading relationships with the world is left in flux.

The pound has slipped in response to today’s figures and the pressures that the UK economy is under are not dissipating anytime soon. We expect that we will be talking about a recession in 2018.

Jasper Lawler, head of research at London Capital Group:

UK second quarter GDP has come in line with expectations at an unchanged 0.3% quarter on quarter from the first reading. Perhaps more significantly, separate figures show total business investment in the UK has stalled to zero after 0.6% previously.

Although the headline figure remains the same, there has been some shuffle amongst the internals. Perhaps most worryingly, consumer spending has risen 0.1%, the least since the 4th quarter of 2014. Increased government spending made up some of the deficit while net trade had no impact.

Sluggish growth adds credence to the notion of the UK economy nearing a Brexit-induced cliff-edge. Recent signs of falling business confidence become of particular concern when they translate into the ‘hard data’. Nonetheless, while UK growth trudges along at a slow pace, the Bank of England will view it as offset by above-target inflation. The decision whether to raise rates is still finely balanced and we expect the Bank of England to continue to do what they know best, nothing.

Nancy Curtin, chief investment officer at Close Brothers Asset Management:

The UK’s economy continues to rumble on despite threats of the Brexit bogeyman on the horizon. The small rise in wage growth has been negated by inflation and the effect of sustained price rises is taking a bite out of consumer spending power. Fears of cheap consumer debt fuelling spending is proving to be a thorn in the Bank of England’s side as it tries to navigate the potential need for a rate rise.

James Smith, economist at ING Bank:

Second quarter UK GDP remained unrevised at 0.3%, but what matters today are the underlying growth drivers - and on consumption, the news isn’t encouraging.

Having grown fairly consistently at a rate of 0.7-0.8% each quarter in 2016, consumer spending slumped to a two and a half year low of just 0.1% quarter on quarter. This result is particularly worrying, given retail sales data had suggested the combination of a late Easter and the second warmest June on record had given retailers temporary respite from the household income squeeze.

But today’s data does support the findings of other data providers - notably Visa and the British Retail Consortium - who have suggested that recent months have been particularly slow for spending as consumers cut back on non-essentials.

Of course, today’s GDP data is fairly backwards-looking - so the question now is whether the squeeze on household incomes has peaked as Deputy Bank of England Governor Broadbent suggested recently.

We think inflation will continue to edge closer to 3% towards the end of this year as the remainder of the pound’s depreciation filters through. Meanwhile, wage growth looks set to hover around 2% as firms grapple with elevated uncertainty, higher import costs and slowing economic momentum. For similar reasons, investment remained flat in the second quarter and is unlikely to stage a strong recovery over the next couple of quarters.

Putting all of that that together, we suspect growth will remain stay sluggish for at least the next few months. This limits the chances of a Bank of England rate hike this year or early next.

The revised growth figures showed the service sector was the biggest riser, up 0.5% quarter on quarter.

Otherwise production fell by 0.3%, construction dropped by 1.3% and agriculture decreased by 0.4%.

Overall the service sector was the only positive contributor to GDP growth:

The pound is struggling in the wake of the revised GDP figures.

Against the dollar it has slipped back from its earlier (unconvincing) gains, 0.09% down at $1.2787.

But it is holding a 0.08% gain against the euro to €1.0848. David Cheetham, chief market analyst at XTB, said:

The slight improvement [in GDP from the first quarter] has done little to alter the fortunes of the pound with the currency falling to its lowest level since June against the US dollar this morning and sterling remains close to its 8 year low against the Euro (if we exclude the flash crash last October when prices were erratic).

Updated

Business investment drops sharply

Within the GDP figures, business investment stands out.

It was flat during the quarter compared to a 0.6% rise in the first three months of the year and expectations of a 0.4% increase. In the event the outcome was the weakest since the fourth quarter of last year.

However capital investment was stronger than expected at 0.7%. Kathleen Brooks, research director at City Index, said:

Business investment was flat, however capital investment was stronger than expected. One would expect business to be cautious ahead of the Brexit negotiations, however, the fact that capital investment (ie, building things) is stronger than expected is good news, and suggests that some investors are willing to look through Brexit to our future outside of the EU.

Government spending was also better than forecast at 0.6% rather than 0.3%.

But consumer spending was just 0.1% quarter on quarter, while exports rose by only 0.7% rather than the 1% expected. Brooks said:

This is likely to leave investors concerned that the UK export sector may never be able to benefit from nothing to GDP last quarter.

Updated

UK economy grows by 0.3% in second quarter

BREAKING NEWS:

The UK economy grew by 0.3% in the three months to June, in line with initial estimates. This equates to annual growth of 1.7%.

Spain's economy continues strong growth

Spain’s economy grew by 0.9% in the second quarter compared to the first, new figures have confirmed.

This is a rise from 0.8% in the first quarter and equates to annual growth of 3.1%. Geoffrey Minne at ING said:

Spanish growth is not only strong and impressive, but it also seems to be on a more sustainable footing than it was before the housing crisis. The combination of strong domestic demand and a positive contribution of external demand should lead GDP growth to top 3% for a third consecutive year. To repeat this result in 2018, several political issues will need to be resolved, notably in Catalonia.

French business confidence rises

Earlier, a new report showed a rise in French business confidence, with morale in the industrial sector hitting a near ten year high.

According to statistics office INSEE, the overall confidence index rose to 109 from 108 in July with the industrial figure rising from 108 to 111, its best level since December 2007. Economist Julien Manceaux at ING Bank said:

Business climate indicators by INSEE showed another improvement for August this morning. The trend is led by manufacturing but confidence in the service sector remains very high. The main disappointing points in this release were the weaker hiring intentions shown in the service survey while future retail sales prospects declined strongly...

All in all, this week’s surveys are an indication of the continuing recovery in France, especially in manufacturing. French growth – having slowed from 1.2% in 2015 to 1.1% in 2016 - is set to rebound to 1.5% in 2017. Afterwards, if the new Government can take profit from the accelerating recovery to implement reforms, GDP growth could accelerate towards 1.7% in 2018.

Updated

The pound is struggling to hold up, as the uncertainty over the Brexit negotiations continues to weigh on the currency.

Against the dollar - which has its own problems including Trump’s threat to shut down the US government if he doesn’t get funds for his Mexico wall - the pound has only managed to remain unchanged at $1.2798. Against the euro, after hitting eight year lows, it has edgd up 0.11% to €1.0851.

But the imminent GDP figures could cause further ructions. Konstantinos Anthis at ADS Securities said:

The release of the Gross Domestic Product report is being seen as a risk event for the British currency.

Even though expectations are set for a steady reading it is unlikely that a stronger set of figures will help the pound recover. However, if there is a softer printing of the GDP report this would highlight the concerns about Britain’s future outside the European Union and this could lead to strong selling of sterling. With the pound trading just below the 1.2800 level this morning further pressure has the potential to take the price towards 1.2700.

Connor Campbell, financial analyst at Spreadex said:

Analysts are expecting the second quarter figure to come in unchanged at a paltry 0.3% – a surprise revision could make a bad week for the pound worse, or help the currency lift away from its recent lows. Also worth paying attention to is the quarterly preliminary business investment figure, which is forecast to fall from 0.6% in Q1 to 0.2% in Q2 – again, not exactly the kind of news sterling wants to hear right now.

European markets edge higher

It’s a tentative start for European markets but they are at least heading in the right direction, despite the continuing concerns about President Trump’s policies, North Korea, and some nervousness ahead of this week’s Jackson Hole meeting of central bankers.

The FTSE 100 is up 0.26% (although the mid-cap FTSE 250 is down 0.3% after the 32% slump in Dixons Carphone shares).

Germany’s Dax is up 0.14 and France’s Cac has climbed 0.27%.

Back with the UK car production figures:

UK car output jumps in July after seven months of decline

Britain’s car manufacturers geared up production last month ahead of the summer shutdown and a number plate change in September.

According to the Society of Motor Manufacturers and Traders (SMMT), UK car output rose by 7.8% last month after seven successive months of decline. Exports grew by 5.3%. Car production has now passed the one million mark this year, although this is down 1.6% compared to the same time last year. Mike Hawes, SMMT chief executive, said:

UK car production lines stepped up a gear in July, as usual bringing forward some production to help manage demand ahead of September and routine summer factory shutdowns. As the timing and length of these manufacturing pauses can shift each year, market performance comparisons for July and August should always be treated with caution, but as long as the economic conditions at home and abroad stay broadly stable we expect new car production to remain in line with expectations for the rest of 2017.

Very wise to treat the figures with caution.

On Wednesday the SMMT embarrassingly had to reissue its second quarter used car figures. It originally said used car sales had slumped by 13.5%. In a revision it said that was actually a mere 0.7% decline. It blamed “an issue” with an algorithm used to calculate the data.

Dixons Carphone shares lose a fifth of their value

BREAKING:

Dixons Carphone shares have plunged 22% in early trading following its profit warning.

The shares have now almost halved so far this year.

A little more detail on the Jackson Hole central bank meeting, courtesy of RBC Capital Markets:

The annual Jackson Hole Economic Symposium begins later tonight when the programme for this year’s gathering will be released (at 6pm local time, 1am UK time). The main address of interest to European markets, that of ECB president Mario Draghi, has already been confirmed by the ECB for 8pm (BST) on Friday evening.

For today, there is only one ECB speaker of note, Bank of Italy Governor Ignazio Visco, who will speak later this evening.

Here’s our story on the Dixons Carphone profit warning:

Dixons Carphone has warned of a steep fall in profits this year, as customers hold on to their phones for longer after the weaker pound pushed up the price of new handsets.

In an unscheduled trading statement, the company said it expects profits in the range of £360 to 440m this year, down from £501m last year. Analysts had on average been forecasting a profit of £495m.

Dixons said the UK mobile phone market had become tougher in the last few months. Due to currency fluctuations – including the sharp fall in the pound since last year’s Brexit vote – handsets have become more expensive, so people are keeping their phones longer before upgrading to a new model.

Chief executive Seb James said: “We have seen an increased number of people hold on to their phones for longer and while it is too early to say whether important upcoming handset launches or the natural life cycle of phones will reverse this trend, we now believe it is prudent to plan on the basis that the overall market demand will not correct itself this year.”

More here:

Dixons Carphone warns on profits

One share likely to do badly when trading begins is Dixons Carphone.

The electronics and phone retailer has downgraded its profit expectations for the year, blaming tougher conditions in the mobile phone market, including peoply holding on to their phones for longer.

It said profits were likely to be between £360m and £440m, down on the average forecast of £495m (according to Thomson Reuters).

The company’s chief executive tweeted:

But retail analyst Nick Bubb was not impressed:

European markets set for mixed opening

It looks like being a caution start to trading for European markets:

Agenda: UK GDP and retail survey in focus

Good morning, and welcome to our rolling coverage of the latest news from the world economy, the financial markets, the eurozone and business.

Central bankers will be gathering at the Jackson Hole mountain resort in the US later for the start a symposium to discuss the key economic issues of the day. The big events will be on Friday, with European Central Bank president Mario Draghi and US Federal Reserve chair Janet Yellen both due to speak. Markets are likely to be nervous ahead of any hints from either about their future policy, whether Draghi hints at an end to the bank’s bond buying programme or Yellen suggests further rate rises are on the way.

Michael Hewson, chief market analyst at CMC Markets, said:

The markets believe that the ECB is on course to begin tapering their stimulus program, and the only unknown is the timing of such measures. Whether Draghi likes it or not the ECB will have to cut back on stimulus simply because the outstanding bonds available to buy is diminishing rapidly, and the continued expansion in economic activity and factory growth points to a fairly resilient recovery in Europe.

The continuing rise in the euro - it is at an eight year high against the pound - causes problems for Draghi in terms of ending stimulus. Any hawkish hints from his Jackson Hole speech could see the euro rise further.

Ahead of all that, today sees the latest revision to UK GDP. The economy grew by 0.3% in the second quarter, according to the initial estimate, up slightly from 0.2% in the first three months but lagging the likes of Germany. Hewson again:

Today’s second estimate will have the benefit of slightly more data to work with, however expectations are for an unchanged reading of 0.3%, with a moderate decline in business investment to 0.2% from 0.6%.

Services once again are expected to make up the lion’s share of the expansion with 0.5%, as the weak pound prompts resilience from overseas visitors in the travel and leisure sector.

The main puzzle remains around the divergence from private survey data, and the ONS numbers which have been uniformly negative.

For all of this year these independent surveys have been much more optimistic, from the likes of the CBI and the Markit, and quite frankly better when it comes to reporting the improvement in order books in terms of surging export markets, as well as rising employment levels in the sector.

There are also CBI retail sales figures for August, and in the US, weekly jobless claims.

We have already had a profit warning from Dixons Carphone, and UK car manufacturing figures, of which more shortly.

As for the pound, it is currently at €1.0833 against the euro, down 0.06% on the day, and 0.13% lower against the dollar at $1.2781.

The agenda:

9.30 BST UK second quarter GDP

11.00 BST CBI retail figures

1.30 BST US weekly jobless claims

Updated

 

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