Nick Fletcher 

FTSE 100 hits new record as pound falls, while Dow reaches 21,000 – as it happened

UK manufacturing growth slips but eurozone manufacturing activity at near six year high
  
  

UK manufacturing growth dips but still holding up well post Brexit vote
UK manufacturing growth dips but still holding up well post Brexit vote Photograph: Ben Birchall/PA

Global markets are continuing to benefit from a renewed Trump bounce following the President’s address to Congress, while the prospect of higher interest rates in the US is boosting bank shares.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average is currently up 245 points or 1.18% at 21,057, while the FTSE 100 has jumped 1.55% to 7375 and is heading for a record close.

In Germany the Dax is up 1.58% while France’s Cac has climbed 1.98%.

Neil Wilson, senior market analyst at ETX Capital, said:

Snimal spirits have taken over. As expected, the Dow Jones has soared through the 21,000 mark just over 3 weeks after breaking the 20,000 level for the first time. It’s the quickest time ever to 1,000-point milestone, beating the record set in 1999. But this looks a bit different to the dotcom boom and bust as we are dealing with a complete reversal in fund allocation in the form of a major shift away from bonds to equities.

Today’s boost is all down to the president’s speech to Congress last night. Trump’s rallying call to reignite the American spirit has produced the desired effect on the markets, pushing stocks to fresh all-time highs. Indeed it’s because of Trump that we are here – the prospect of stronger growth, lower taxes, more spending and higher earnings is like a magic cocktail for equities. Of course details of tax reforms will be crucial – there is still the scope for disappointment as markets are pricing in a huge surge in corporate earnings.

The dollar is also soaring – something Trump doesn’t really want as it harms US exporters more than any tariff – as expectations rise that the Federal Reserve will raise short-term interest rates at its March meeting.

On that note, it’s time to close up for the day. Thanks for all your comments, and we’ll be back tomorrow.

US manufacturing beats expectations - ISM

Unlike the slightly disappointing Markit US manufacturing survey, the ISM report has come in better than expected.

The ISM manufacturing activity index reached 57.7 in February, up from 56 in January and better than the 56.2 analysts had been forecasting. This is the highest level since August 2014, and adds to the growing expectation that a US interest rate rise could be imminent.

And the first manufacturing survey for February came in slightly lower than expected.

The Market final purchasing managers index was 54.2 compared to forecasts of a figure of 54.4 and an initial reading for the month of 54.3. It shows a slowdown from the 55 figure recorded in January.

Updated

Wall Street opens sharply higher with Dow above 21,000

As investors react favourably to Donald Trump’s address to Congress, US markets have followed the lead from their counterparts elsewhere and opened in a positive mood.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average has jumped above 21,000 for the first time, adding 201 points or 0.95% to 21,013 while the S&P 500 rose 0.79% and the Nasdaq Composite 0.85% at the open. (This is the quickest time the Dow has taken to climbe 1000 points, having gone through 20,000 only in January)

The prospect of a US interest rise this month seems to have increased following comments from members of the Federal Reserve, which has given a lift to the banking sector.

The market moves come ahead of the two manufacturing surveys due shortly, from Markit and then ISM.

Updated

Greek transport workers strike as creditors demand cuts

Over in Greece a 24-hour strike by transport workers has unleashed traffic chaos in Athens and put further pressure on the leftist-led government as creditors step up demands for a new package of cuts worth 2% of GDP. Helena Smith reports:

As spring approaches, public sector workers are stepping up pressure on prime minister Alexis Tsipras’ government with increased industrial action. After seeing the Acropolis closed by protesting guards last week, Greeks woke up to a 24-hour hour strike by metro, tram and urban rail employees across the capital today.

Workers, who will stage a similar walkout on Friday, are up in arms over legislation allowing the cash-starved Athens transport organisation (OASA) to make commercial use of stations. Arguing that the law is the first step to privatization, they claim it will ultimately undermine the public character of the transit network and hurt consumers.

Protests against further pension cuts have also been announced by doctors working in state-run hospitals with a nationwide 24-hour walk-out planned tomorrow. In a proclamation released at lunchtime, the Panhellenic Doctors Association called on medics in the public and private sector to participate in the mass display of opposition against reduced pensions and increased contributions. The decision to unify pension funds would, they said, only exacerbate the paring back of desperately needed resources for the health sector. At 11%t of GDP, the IMF argues that Greece spends more on pensions than almost any other state.

The protests come as Greek officials spoke of a wealth of differences with creditors who this week resumed stalled bailout negotiations in Athens. Acknowledging that headway had yet to be made on the counter measures the government hopes to install to offset the impact of further tax and pension reforms, the Greek finance minister Euclid Tsakalotos told parliament on Tuesday that nothing was agreed until everything was agreed and that austerity was far from over.

Sterling is now down 0.7% at $1.2293:

In the markets, the FTSE 250 mid-cap has followed the lead of the FTSE 100 and also hit a new peak.

The 250 has climbed nearly 0.8% to 18,915, beating the previous peak of 18,864.

Back with the German inflation figures, and economist Carsten Brzeski at ING Bank says the figures are food for critics of the European Central Bank:

Based on the results of six regional states, German headline came in at 2.2% year on year in February versus 1.9% YoY in January. Based on the harmonised European definition (HICP), and more relevant for ECB policy-making, headline inflation also came in at 2.2% year on year; the highest level since August 2012...

With German headline inflation at/above the magical 2% level, new complaints against the ECB’s loose monetary policy and new media headlines are likely to emerge; though with little impact on next week’s ECB meeting. Obviously, increasing inflation – no matter what the drivers are – combined with low interest rates leads to even more negative real interest rates and hurts savers. Based on the central bank’s main policy rate and headline inflation, one has to go back to the 1970s to find similar negative levels of the real interest rate. At the same time, however, the common German reflex to criticize the ECB and call for an end of QE is, in our view, overblown.

First of all, there is very little the ECB can do about an increase in inflation, almost exclusively driven by energy and food prices. Developments of core inflation will determine future ECB action.

Secondly, even in an economy operating at full employment and which is most advanced in the current cycle, underlying inflationary pressure remains low; illustrated by the drop in core inflation.

Thirdly, even if German inflation was to exceed 2% sustainably, it is simply a mathematical prerequisite for the inflation in the entire Eurozone to also get close to 2%. Nothing the ECB should do about.

Fourthly, the current increase in headline inflation in the Eurozone is broadly in line with the ECB’s own projections. As the ECB has often stressed: these projections are conditional on full implementation of QE until the end of 2017.

Finally, the ECB conducts monetary policy for the entire Eurozone and not for the best student in class.

The German push for early tapering will continue. However, contrary to the situation at the beginning of the year, it seems as if the debate at the ECB has been taken off front pages and media headlines to discussions behind closed doors. Recent statements of German central bankers seem to hint at a slightly changed strategy of the internal critics of the ECB’s current policy. The partly loud and outspoken criticism has given way to a more subtle tone. Last week, ECB board member Lautenschläger even started to praise increasing inflation, only to add that it would enable the ECB to reach its goals.

On the eve of the first two important elections in the Eurozone, the ECB will in our view choose not to distort the market with tapering rumours. If and when the elections in the Netherlands and France manage to reduce political uncertainty, the ECB could already give first hints at 2018 tapering this summer.

Such a timing would help mitigate ECB bashing in the upcoming German election campaign. It seems that at least German central bankers are willing to keep their verbal powder dry until then.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average is also expected to open higher and could even breach the 21,000 barrier.

FTSE 100 hits new peak

The FTSE 100 has hit a record intra-day high, up 1.24% at 7354.24.

The previous intra-day record was 7354.14 on 16 January this year, and the previous record close was 7337 on 13 January.

Global markets generally have been boosted by the calmer tone of Donald Trump’s address to Congress, even though there was little new detail on his plans for infrastructure spending and tax reforms.

But the FTSE 100 in particular has been helped by weakness in sterling, which lifts the profits of its overseas earners.

The pound has been hit by weaker than expected UK manufacturing data earlier, which makes any interest rate rise from the Bank of England unlikely in the near future, as well as an increase in the dollar as the chances of the Federal Reserve increasing US borrowing costs grow stronger.

Updated

German inflation hits a four and a half year high

German inflation rose further in February, up 2.2% on the year after a 1.9% rise in January.

This is the highest annual inflation rate since August 2012 and puts the country ahead of the European Central Bank’s target of just under 2%. Higher energy and food costs were the main reason for the rises.

But with elections due, the news is likely to see renewed calls in the country for the ECB to call an end to its loose monetary policy.

Back with the FTSE 100 and although it has not yet reached its intraday record of 7354, it could hit a new closing high if it ends around its current levels.

It is now up 1.13% at 7345, which is above the record close of 7337 achieved on 13 January.

Updated

With François Fillon, the conservative French presidential candidate, saying he will stay in the race despite now facing embezzlement charges (he denies all allegations), there has been some reaction:

Updated

On the rising markets and falling pound, Connor Campbell, financial analyst at Spreadex, said:

A resurgent Trump rally gathered pace as Wednesday progressed, the European indices ignoring a mixed bag of manufacturing data.

The FTSE barrelled towards a fresh all-time high this morning, rising more than 50 points to lurk just below 7350. It’s its best price in a month and a half, and one that paid no attention to the fact that the UK’s manufacturing PMI unexpectedly fell from 55.7 in January to 54.6 in February. That fact didn’t slip past the pound, however. Sterling has spent the last few session suffering in comparison to the Trump-swelled, rate hike-eyeing dollar, and today was no different, the currency shedding another 0.3% against the greenback to leave it firmly under $1.24 (something that no doubt helped out the FTSE).

Like their UK counterpart, the DAX and CAC also benefited from a weakened currency this Wednesday. With the euro down half a percent against the dollar, the German and French indices were given the green light to go big, both surging 1.3% as the day went on even despite a slight downward revision to the month’s region-wide manufacturing reading.

This optimism should continue into the afternoon, with the Dow Jones set to open just above 20900 for the first time in its history. The US index actually has a fair amount of data to deal with this Wednesday, including the Fed-favourite core PCE price index and the Markit and ISM manufacturing PIMs. This leaves the Dow in an interesting position – while Trump is currently the main driving force behind the market’s movements, as the month goes the potential Fed rate-hike in March is only going to gain more prominence, something that could put pressure on the index’s current highs.

Pound near six week low against the dollar

Meanwhile sterling has fallen to a near-six week low against the dollar, falling as low as $1.2323 and boosting the FTSE 100’s overseas earners.

The currency has been reacting to the weaker than expected UK manufacturing figures - pushing the chances of a rate rise even further into the distance - as well as the strength of the dollar as the Fed does look likely to increase borrowing costs, perhaps as soon as this month.

There are also the concerns about the prospect of a Scottish referendum and the continuing uncertainty over Brexit.

After an early rise against the euro, sterling is flat against the single currency at €1.1701.

Updated

Trump address continues to lift markets, with FTSE heading towards new peak

Markets continue to be boosted by the calmer tone of Donald Trump’s address to Congress, along with a - generally - positive picture of the manufacturing sector in February.

The FTSE 100 is up 1% at 7336, heading close towards its intra-day high of 7354 achieved on 16 January.

Germany’s Dax is up 1.42% and France’s Cac 1.45%, despite the continuing concerns over the French presidential election.

Meanwhile US futures are suggesting an 88 point opening for the Dow Jones Industrial Average, which dipped at the close on Tuesday after 12 days of rises.

Commodity shares were lifted by Trump’s repeating his plans for $1bn of infrastructure spending, with the Stoxx 600 basic resources index up 1.9%.

Building materials group CRH is the biggest riser in the FTSE 100 after a 10% rise in earnings. As the largest building materials business in North America, it is well placed to benefit from Trump’s spending proposals, although it said this was more likely to have an impact in the medium rather than short term.

Updated

UK mortgage approvals rise in January

More on the UK housing market following the earlier Nationwide survey.

Bank of England mortgage approval figures show the upward trend since the Brexit vote last summer continued in January.

The number of mortgages approved for new house purchase jumped from 67,898 in December to 69,928, higher than the consensus among City economist for a gentler rise to 68,650.

This was the fifth monthly rise in a row and the highest since last March.

Scott Bowman, UK economist at Capital Economics, said the bounce in mortgage lending would have strengthened the argument for rate rises later in the year if it were not for a fall in annual growth in lending to corporates from 3.2% in December to 2.7% in January.

“This contributed to a drop in annual growth in the monetary policy committee’s preferred measure of bank lending - M4 lending excluding intermediate OFCs - from 6.2% to 5.3%. Nonetheless, we think that supportive monetary policy will ensure that the slowdown in bank lending this year isn’t too sharp.”

Jeremy Duncombe, director at Legal & General Mortgage Club, said the mortgage aprovals figures highlighted the resilience of the UK housing market.

“Despite an uncertain political outlook, it is great to see the industry adopting a ‘keep calm and carry on’ approach as the mortgage industry continues to serve the needs of remortgagers and buyers alike,” he said.

But Dennis de Jong, managing director at UFX.com warned that the strength was dependent on Bank of England support following the cut in interest rates last August.

“Mark Carney and his Bank of England colleagues helped to breathe some life into it by cutting interest rates further and mortgage approvals have stood up very well in January.

“However, this may not continue for long with high levels of uncertainty around Britain’s exit from the EU far from the best breeding ground for house buying. There has been some slightly conflicting data in the past fortnight regarding the strength of UK housing, but the general consensus is that things are likely to worsen throughout the year,” he said.

Here’s more reaction to the UK manufacturing PMI figures:

Lee Hopley, chief economist at EEF, the manufacturers’ organisation:

The slight slowing in the pace of expansion in UK manufacturing signalled by today’s PMI conceals some still positive trends across the industry. Export demand gained further ground in February, offsetting a bit of a slowdown in the rate of growth in the domestic market. This is likely to be a sign of things to come as consumer facing sectors are more challenged than other manufacturing sectors as rising inflation eats into household incomes.

However, it seems that investment goods will pick up the baton – more confident and busier firms, brighter global prospects and rising commodity prices should create the right conditions for growth in this industry segment. With recent official statistics confirming that manufacturing contributed positively to the UK economic performance in 2016, what we’ve seen so far suggests we should be in for more of the same in 2017.

Mike Rigby, Head of Manufacturing at Barclays:

Two months into 2017 and despite a slowing in the rate of growth in February, manufacturers continue to register strong levels of output, healthy order books and growing trade courtesy of a weak sterling. However, despite the recent surge in exports, the sector continues to rely mostly on domestic demand and with price rises feeding through on the back of growing input costs, even with their recent easing, inflationary pressure continues to hover with intent. It’s how manufacturers now respond, particularly in their investment intentions, that will help determine how long the raised level of optimism in the sector continues.

Dave Atkinson, UK head of manufacturing at Lloyds Bank Commercial Banking, said:

There will be fears that the latest PMI data suggests the manufacturing sector is showing the first signs of slowdown since last summer as the UK prepares to begin in earnest the process of leaving the European Union.

Yet despite persistent headwinds, principally the uncertainty around future trade terms and pricier imports as a result of the weaker pound, some exporting manufacturers are taking the opportunity to review their international trade strategies and look beyond the EU, especially taking advantage in the short term of the devaluation of sterling making our exports more competitive.

Firms are also becoming more skilled at dealing with unexpected geopolitical events. Businesses in the car manufacturing supply chain are waiting to see how the PSA-Opel deal will pan out with elections in several major European countries this year.

Howard Archer, chief UK and European economist at IHS Markit:

While weaker than January and December, this is still a decent survey that points to decent manufacturing expansion in the first quarter. This would follow manufacturing output rebounding a pleasing 1.2% quarter-on-quarter in the fourth quarter of 2016 after declining 0.8% quarter-on-quarter in the third quarter.

However, the PMI does point to a slowdown in domestic demand in February. This was partly offset by a welcome pick-up in export orders after a lacklustre January performance.

Ongoing very high manufacturers’ pricing balances remains a serious black mark in the survey that fuels belief UK consumer price inflation is headed markedly higher over the coming months and will likely reach 3% later in the year.

The slowdown in growth in domestic orders in February fuels belief that there are mounting challenges for the manufacturing sector.

ITV suffers fall in advertising after Brexit vote

Meanwhile, ITV has reported its worst year for TV advertising since the 2009 recession as Brexit fears caused jittery companies to pull budgets last year.

ITV said that TV ad revenues fell 3% last year to £1.67bn and would fall 6% in the first four months this year as retailers and food companies focus on price cuts over ad spend to win over consumers.

However, the UK’s biggest free-to-air broadcaster was able to pay out a special dividend to shareholders of more than £200m thanks to the performance of ITV Studios.

The TV production business - which makes and sells shows including Victoria, Mr Selfridge, Come Dine with Me and Coronation Street - helped ITV more than offset the ad decline with double-digit growth in revenues and profits last year.

ITV saw pre-tax profits fall 14% to £553m, due to £164m in mostly non-cash charges, while total revenues grew 4% to £3.5bn. ITV, which had warned analysts of the Brexit-related TV ad decline, beat city consensus figures by 3%.

Updated

Despite the weaker than expected UK factory growth, Rob Dobson at survey compiler IHS Markit said UK manufacturing output could grow by as much ast 1.5% in the first quarter:

The big question is whether robust growth can be sustained or whether it will continue to wane in the coming months. The slowdown in new order growth and a drop in backlogs of work suggest output growth may slow further. However, elevated business optimism, continued job creation, a recovery in export orders and rising levels of purchasing all suggest that any easing will be only mild. Indeed, almost 50% of companies expect production to be higher in one year’s time.

Chris Williamson, chief business economist at IHS Markit, said the figures suggested the UK economy should grow by 0.5% in the first quarter.

Updated

UK factory growth slows

Britain’s factory activity grew more slowly than expected in February, but is still continuing to show the strong momentum seen since the Brexit vote.

The Markit/CIPS manufacturing purchasing managers index slipped from 55.7 in January to 54.6, below the expected figure of 55.6. But it remains close to a two and a half year high. There was a slight easing in inflationary pressures which had been rising in the wake of sterling’s slump following the referendum outcome last June.

And here is Markit’s PMI rankings:

Eurozone manufacturing boosted by weak euro

Eurozone factories grew at their fastest rate for 70 months in February, as the weak euro helped boost demand for exports.

The IHS Markit purchasing managers index rose from 55.2 in January to 55.4, the highest level since April 2011. It was revised down slightly from an initial estimate of 55.5. Markit said:

Companies indicated that domestic demand remained solid in a number of markets, while the weak euro contributed to the fastest growth of new export business for almost six years.

Chris Williamson, chief business economist at IHS Markit said:

Euro area manufacturers are reporting the strongest production and order book growth for almost six years, in what’s looking like an increasingly robust upturn.

Companies clearly expect the good times to persist. This year has seen firms more optimistic about the future than at any time since the region’s debt crisis. Companies are reporting stronger demand in both home and export markets, with the weakened euro providing an accompanying tailwind to help drive sales.

Given the current buoyant demand environment, manufacturers are eschewing political uncertainty and quietly getting on with growing their businesses. The rate of job creation seen so far this year in the manufacturing sector has consequently been among the best seen in the history of the euro.

Greece remains the outlier, stuck firmly in contraction territory while all other countries are expanding with the Netherlands, Austria and Germany enjoying the strongest growth.

On the price front, not only are higher commodity prices and the weak euro pushing up firms’ costs, but there’s also growing evidence of a sellers’ market developing for many goods as demand exceeds supply, which suggests core inflationary pressures may be starting to rise.

And over in China:

There was also an improvement in Greek manufacturing last month, although it still contracted for the sixth month in a row.

Still with Germany, and seasonally adjusted unemployment fell by 14,000 in February to 2.592m.

This is a bigger fall than the expected 10,000 decline but less than the 26,000 drop seen the previous month.

The jobless rate was unchanged at 5.9%

German factory growth at near six year high

But over in the powerhouse of the eurozone economy, things look pretty bright for manufacturers.

Factory activity expanded at the strongest rate in nearly six years in February, with Markit’s purchasing managers index up from 56.4 in January to 56.8. IHS Markit economist Trevor Balchin said:

The survey results suggest that manufacturing [which accounts for about a fifth of the economy] will contribute to a strengthening in overall economic growth in the first quarter.

He said GDP growth in the quarter was likely to rise to at least 0.6% after 0.4% growth in the final three months of 2016. Last year Germany was the best performing economy in the G7, beating the UK into second place.

Updated

French manufacturing growth slips back

To continue the mixed picture for European manufacturing, French factory activity more slowly in February.

The IHS Markit purchasing managers index fell from 53.6 in January to 52.2 last month, down from a preliminary reading of 52.3. Companies raised prices at the fastest pace since July 2011 as they passed on rising commodity costs on to customers. Markit economist Alex Gill said:

New business from both domestic and foreign clients..increased. However, rates of growth eased for a second successive month, suggesting a downward trend in underlying demand conditions.

Updated

Italian manufacturing grows strongly

Italy’s manufacturing sector grew at its fastest pace since December 2015 in February, according to the latest Markit survey.

The purchasing managers index rose from 53 in January to 55 last month, and well above the 53.5 figure expected by economists.

Back with the US, and expectations of an interest rate rise in March have soared after Federal Reserve comments and Trump’s speech. Kathleen Brooks at City Index explains:

The media is focused on the lack of detail surrounding [Trump’s] tax cuts and infrastructure plans, however, the market that matters at the moment - the Fed Funds Futures market – has surged into life since Trump spoke earlier, and is now pricing in a whopping 80% chance of a rate hike from the Federal Reserve at its next meeting on 15th March; just last week this was only 34%.

What’s triggered the sea-change in rate hike expectations from the Fed? Firstly, the Fed itself. The President of the New York Fed, Dudley, spoke last night and said that the case for tightening interest rates has “become a lot more compelling”. As head of the NY Fed, Dudley’s words hold weight, added to this he is not usually a hawk, so when he is considering a rate hike the market takes note. This was followed by even more direct comments from the head of the San Francisco Fed, who said that he sees a March rate hike getting “serious consideration”. Fed members don’t just let words slip out when they speak to the press, this was a message for the markets, and the markets have duly reacted.

The second boost to rate hike expectations is probably from Trump. Even if his speech did lack detail the President still wants Congress to pass a $1 trillion infrastructure spending programme, something he has a chance of getting through, even if it is a slimmed down version, because Congress is controlled by the Republicans. There was some expectation that Trump’s spending plans could be delayed for a year or so, the fact the President has laid them out at this early stage gives the Fed the green light to normalise monetary policy to counter-balance a boost to fiscal spending.

Of course, there is still a chance that the market will over-shoot and get too excited for a March rate hike that may never come. US PCE data later today, comments from Janet Yellen on Friday and next week’s payrolls and wage data will all be key indicators that could determine if we get a rate hike on 15th March. Thus, it could be a volatile few weeks.

Spanish factory growth slows

Spain’s manufacturing sector grew by less than expected in February and less than the previous month:

But the purchasing managers index was still well above the 50 level which separates expansion from contraction.

Manufacturers said they increased output prices to cope with the rising cost of materials such as steel.

Updated

European markets open higher

As expected, investors in Europe have reacted calmly to Donald Trump’s address to Congress, with markets on the front foot ahead of a batch of economic data.

The FTSE 100 is up 43 points or 0.6% while Germany’s Dax has opened up 0.8%, France’s Cac has climbed 0.9% and Italy’s FTSE MIB and Spain’s Ibex are both around 0.8% higher.

UK house prices rise more than expected - Nationwide

In the UK, there was little sign of a Brexit-related blow to the housing market in February, with prices rising more than expected according to Nationwide.

The average price of a home rose 0.6% to £205,846 last month, following a 0.2% increase in January.

It comfortably beat economists’ expectations of a 0.2% rise and took the annual rate of house price growth to 4.5% from 4.3% a month earlier.

Robert Gardner, Nationwide’s chief economist, said the backdrop for the housing market was mixed. The economy had performed relatively strongly on the one hand, with growth of 0.7% in the fourth quarter, but on the other hand UK consumers might be less willing to spend money in the coming months as inflation picks up.

He concludes: “In our view a small rise in house prices of around 2% is more likely than a decline over the course of 2017, since low borrowing costs and the dearth of homes on the market will continue to support prices.”

Although President Trump repeated his pledge to build a wall between the US and Mexico, he did not say explicitly that Mexico would have to pay for it, which gave some relief to the peso.

But he did attack the high cost of pharmaceuticals again, which could put some pressure on the sector, while bank investors may also be disappointed. Kathleen Brooks, research director at City Index, said:

President Trump reiterated that he would help to drive down the cost of drugs, which could knock the S&P 500’s healthcare sector back from its highest level since mid-2016. The lack of detail on financial regulation could also curb some enthusiasm for US banks. The President did not mention Dodd-Frank by name; a regulation that the financial sector had hoped would be scrapped by this administration. To cushion the blow, however, is the prospect of a Fed rate hike this month, so any decline in US banks on Wednesday could be used as a buying opportunity.

Higher US interest rates are supporting the dollar, and pushing the pound lower. Sterling is down 0.12% at $1.2366 although the UK currency is up 0.23% against the euro at €1.1728.

Here are the expected openings for the European markets:

Agenda: Reaction to Trump speech, global manufacturing snapshot due

Good morning, and welcome to our rolling coverage of the world economy, the financial markets, the eurozone and business.

President Trump’s long awaited address to Congress ended up being more, well, presidential than usual. There was nothing there to scare the horses, although there was not much in the way of new detail in terms of his tax reforms and infrastructure spending plans. Michael Hewson, chief market analyst at CMC Markets, said:

Having built up expectations to elevated levels over the past few weeks the President set himself an exceedingly high bar to deliver, which always suggested that it could struggle to live up to expectations, in terms of additional detail to what we already know. Ultimately that is the key benchmark here, yes the speech was optimistic and Mr Trump did come across as more Presidential, however the speech merely confirmed a lot of the details that had been heavily trailed before.

As to the key question as to whether it would come across as more or less bullish in terms of spending and rates there was still a significant lack of detail. This may be more to do with tempering expectations until he puts his final plans through Congress ahead of any debt ceiling negotiations.

The speech merely confirmed the President’s aspirations with respect to infrastructure spending, up to $1trn, while there was little in the way of content about tax policy, though we had been forewarned about that given his comments about prioritising revamping Obamacare. There were no details about a border adjustment tax, though he did reiterate his commitment to free and fair trade, as well as building the border wall with Mexico.

Our full report on Trump’s address is here:

All this served to calm the markets, although ahead of the speech the Dow Jones Industrial Average ended lower after twelve day’s of record highs, albeit down just 0.12%. That meant it has fallen short of beating the best consecutive run of closing highs - 13 days in January 1987.

But in the aftermath of Trump’s speech Asian markets moved higher, with the Nikkei up 1.4% to its best close since February 15. European markets are also expected to open ahead.

US interest rates were also in focus after more members of the Federal Reserve suggested a rise could be imminent, perhaps even at this month’s meeting. New York Fed president Bill Dudley, thought of as a dove on policy, seemed to be veering towards a rise, saying it had become “a lot more compelling” after recent data.

It being the first of the month, there is a host of new data due, including manufacturing figures for February from the eurozone, UK and US as well as German jobs and inflation data.

Updated

 

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