Andrew Sparrow 

26% of voters want second referendum on final Brexit deal, poll suggests – as it happened

Rolling coverage of the day’s political developments as they happen
  
  

Anti Brexit campaigners outside the supreme court last month.
Anti Brexit campaigners outside the supreme court last month. Photograph: Victoria Jones/PA

Backing MPs having final say on Brexit could save Labour 22 seats, poll suggests

ICM has also been conducting polling for Represent Us, a group campaigning for parliament to have the final say on whether or not the UK leaves the EU once the final Brexit deal is known.

The Represent Us poll focused on a sample of 1,343 voters in Labour seats (not just Labour supporters - a representative sample of all voters in those seats) and it asked how people would vote if both Labour and the Lib Dems called for parliament to have the final say on Brexit, while the Tories and Ukip promised to implement it anyway. Another question then asked how people would vote if Labour said it would implement Brexit anyway, like the Tories and Ukip, and only the Lib Dems said they would give parliament the final say.

According to Represent Us, which took the poll findings, compared them to current voting intentions, and then calculated what impact this would have on seats.

Here is an extract from the Represent Us news release.

Last week Theresa May said parliament would have a vote on the EU exit terms – but the choice would be between accepting the terms and leaving on WTO terms. An ICM poll conducted this weekend across Labour constituencies shows that the party would be 22 seats better off in a 2017 election if it supported parliament also having the option of the UK remaining within the EU.

If Labour opposes the government and calls for parliament to have a choice between accepting the deal and remaining in the EU, it would end up with 162 seats (compared to the 175 currently projected). However, if it just supports the government it would end up with 140 seats (both scenarios assume the Lib Dems call for parliamentary choice). In the first scenario Labour’s share of the vote falls 3% from the currently projected share of 44% in Labour constituencies to 41%; but if it supports the government its share falls 8% from 44% to 36%, with the Lib Dems gaining a similar amount.

One explanation of these figures is that Labour has already lost the support of many potential UKIP voters – but an estimated 18% of its current supporters voted Lib Dem in 2010 and this poll suggests many of them will desert Labour if it supports the government.

26% of voters want second referendum on Brexit once final deal is known, poll suggests

As I mentioned earlier (see 10.40am), today’s Guardian/ICM polling included some questions on Brexit. Here are the top lines.

  • Around a quarter of voters want a second referendum to give people the final say on whether the UK leaves the EU once the outcome of Brexit talks are known, the poll suggests.
  • Around a third of voters think Brexit should be postponed or suspended if the government cannot reach a deal in two years, the poll suggests.
  • A clear majority of voters (63%) support Theresa May’s claim that leaving the EU without a trade deal would be better than leaving with bad trade deal, the poll suggests.
  • And a clear majority of voters (59%) thinks May was right to threaten economic retaliation, including slashing business taxes, if the EU offers the UK a bad Brexit deal.

And here are the detailed figures.

First people were told that Brexit negotiations are starting soon and were then asked which of these three options they would prefer.

UK leaving, regardless of what happens: 53%

Parliament to decide whether the UK leaves, based on the outcome of negotiations: 12%

A second referendum to let people decide, based on the outcome of the negotiations: 26%

Don’t know: 9%

Then people were asked what should happen if the UK and the EU failed to reach an agreement in the time allowed for the Brexit talks (two years). They were given two choices.

End talks and leave without a deal: 49%

Postpone or suspend the UK’s exit from the EU: 33%

Don’t know: 18%

Then people were asked which of these two options they thought was best.

Leaving the EU without a trade deal: 63%

Leaving the EU with a bad trade deal: 8%

Don’t know: 29%

Finally, people were told that, if May is offered a bad Brexit deal by the EU, she has threatened to retaliate by cutting business taxes to encourage businesses to move to the UK, or changing “the basis of Britain’s economic model” as she puts it. They were asked if May was right or wrong to do this.

Right: 59%

Wrong: 18%

Don’t know: 23%

ICM Unlimited interviewed an online sample of 2052 adults aged 18+ on 20-22 January 2017. Interviews were conducted across the country and the results have been weighted to the profile of all adults. ICM is a member of the British Polling Council and abides by its rules.

Fallon's Commons statement on Trident - Snap summary

Here is a snap summary of the main points from the UQ.

  • Sir Michael Fallon, the defence secretary, has been widely criticised by Labour and SNP MPs for refusing to discuss a Trident missile test that went wrong on the grounds of secrecy even though it has emerged that an American defence official has briefed CNN about the incident. Several MPs complained strongly about CNN being told more than the House of Commons.
  • Theresa May has been accused by Labour of a cover up. In her response to Fallon, Nia Griffith, the shadow defence secretary, said:

At the heart of this issue is a worrying lack of transparency and a prime minister who’s chosen to cover up a serious incident, rather than coming clean with the British public. This House, and more importantly the British public, deserve better.

  • Fallon has insisted that the test carried out last summer was a success because it showed that HMS Vengeance was fit to resume operations as part of the continuous at-sea nuclear deterrent. He said the submarine and its crew passed the test, but he would not comment on what the test revealed about the missile that was fired. He suggested that those demanding more information about this in public could be jeopardising national security.
  • Fallon has said he is “pondering” an invitation to give evidence about this to the Commons defence committee tomorrow.

Updated

This is from the Daily Mirror’s Dan Bloom.

The UQ is over. But Kevan Jones is raising a point of order. American officials are briefing on this, he says, even though Michael Fallon will not comment. He says Fallon should appear before the Commons defence committee to answer questions on this.

John Bercow, the Commons Speaker, says Fallon will have heard this point.

The SNP’s Tommy Sheppard says Fallon has taken questions for an hour, and not one MP has asked for operational information.

Fallon says he has been asked for operational information.

The “demonstration and shake down” test was successful, he says.

The SNP’s Deidre Brock asks if Fallon can confirm that the missile went the wrong way. That is an extreme form of friendly fire, she says.

Fallon says he cannot comment on that.

Philip Hollobone, a Conservative, asks Fallon to confirm that 160 Trident missile tests have taken place.

Fallon says he thinks that figure is broadly right.

Updated

The SNP’s Patrick Grady asks if any video footage was taken of this test.

Fallon says decisions are publicising these tests are taken in the light of national security considerations that apply at the time.

Chris Bryant, the Labour MP, says American officials are briefing CNN, and British officials are briefing the Sunday Times and the Guardian.

Fallon says secrecy should be maintained. But he is not responsible for what the Americans do, he says.

Here is Labour’s Tom Blenkinsop on Michael Fallon’s Commons performance.

And here is the Labour MP John Woodcock on Fallon.

Tony Perkins, the Labour MP, says the fact that more is coming out in the US on this than from the government will undermine faith in the nuclear deterrent.

Fallon says he does not accept that.

The SNP’s Steven Paterson asks if other mistakes like this have occurred. Or should he watch a White House briefing for details?

Fallon says he is not giving away operational details.

Labour’s Kevin Brennan says Fallon’s “don’t tell ‘em, Pike” approach is pointless because Congressmen and women in Washington will be told what happens.

Fallon says keeping these matters secret is in the national interest.

The Labour peer Stewart Wood says Michael Fallon seems to be adopting the “alternative facts” approach championed by Donald Trump’s aide Kellyanne Conway.

Updated

Michael Fabricant, a Conservative, says some people say MPs would have voted differently on Trident renewal last summer if they had known about this. But that is not the case, he says. Conservative MPs would have all voted as they did.

Fallon says he has tried hard not to confirm anything in his statement today.

Bernard Jenkin, a Conservative, says some of those Labour MPs complaining about the damage to Trident’s credibility do not even believe in the nuclear deterrent.

Labour’s David Winnick says, if the information about the failed test had been given at the time, there would have been far less publicity.

Fallon does not accept this. Previous governments have not given information about these tests, he says.

Labour’s Dennis Skinner asks how Trident can be independent when information is given to President Trump, a man who is as “thick as two short planks”, but not to MPs.

Fallon says the nuclear deterrent is operationally independent.

Updated

Labour’s Mary Creagh says a US official has confirmed to CNN that the missile did auto self-destruct off the coast of Florida. (See 4pm.) Why are MPs the last to be told?

Fallon says he does not give operational details of tests.

Updated

Carol Monaghan, the SNP MP, says her husband carried out a former nuclear missile test. Fallon said the crew and the submarine worked fine. But what about the missile?

Fallon says that Monaghan should not believe everything in the papers. He will not discuss operational detail, he says.

Michael Gove, the Conservative former justice secretary, says the unilateralists opposite are like “eunuchs complaining about the cost of Viagra”.

Fallon says he agrees.

But John Bercow, the Speaker, says he is sure this went down well at the Oxford Union.

(Implicitly, he seems to be accusing Gove of acting like a student.)

Updated

Crispin Blunt, the Conservative chair of the Commons foreign affairs committee (and the only Tory MP to vote against Trident renewal), asks what assessment has been made of the extra costs of Trident as the programme gets older.

Fallon says he will write to Blunt about this.

The SNP’s Douglas Chapman asks if Fallon will turn up to the defence committee tomorrow to discuss this.

Fallon says he is “pondering” where to accept the defence committee’s invitation.

Labour’s Ann Clywd asks Fallon to confirm that every missile test costs £17m.

Fallon says he cannot confirm that.

Updated

This is from CNN’s Carol Jordan.

Vernon Coaker, the Labour former shadow defence secretary, says a leak of this kind undermines support for the nuclear deterrent.

Fallon says, whether Coaker likes it or not, he will not respond to speculation about this test.

Sir Gerald Howarth, a Conservative former defence secretary, asks Fallon to confirm that there have been 160 successful firings of this missile.

Fallon says the “demonstration and shake down” tests are important. HMS Vengeance successfully concluded this test, he says.

Labour’s Mike Gapes says deterrence relies on uncertainty. So is Fallon trying to increase deterrence by increasing uncertainty today?

Fallon says Gapes is right about uncertainty being an important aspect of deterrence.

Labour’s John Spellar says Jacob Rees-Mogg wanted the Commons to sit in private to save ministers from embarrassment.

He says in Lord Hennessy’s book, The Silent Deep, there is a full description of a previous test of this kind.

Fallon says previous governments have decided to release some information about these tests. He says a decision was taken this time on the basis of prevailing circumstances.

The Labour MP John Woodcock asks if there will be a leak inquiry into the source of the Sunday Times story.

Fallon says he is not confirming what was in the weekend press, and he would caution MPs against believing everything in the weekend press.

The Lib Dem MP Tom Brake says Britain’s enemies would have been aware of the failure of this test. So MPs should have been told, he says.

Fallon says, under international treaty obligations, other countries have to be told about tests like this. They were told.

But he does not accept Brake’s second point, he says.

Brendan O’Hara, the SNP’s defence spokesman, whose constituency includes the Faslane nuclear submarine base, asks who decided not to tell parliament about this problem.

Fallon says O’Hara should not believe everything in the papers about this.

He says that the government would not have asked MPs to renew Trident last summer if there was any doubt about its reliability.

Julian Lewis, the Conservative chair of the Commons defence committee, asks what David Cameron was told about this.

And will Fallon come to the defence committee tomorrow to answer questions on this, in closed session if necessary.

Fallon says he will not answer operational questions about this.

He says May and Cameron were of course told about the test.

Nia Griffith, the shadow defence secretary, says it should not have taken a newspaper story and an urgent question to get Fallon to address this.

Labour is not asking for operational detail, she says.

But Theresa May did not say a single word about this in the debate on renewing Trident last year. The public deserve the facts, she says.

Who decided to keep this quiet?

What investigation has been carried on into what happened?

She says there is a ”worrying lack of transparency” in this. May has “chosen to cover up” a worrying incident.

Fallon says neither he nor the prime minster are going to give operational details of our submarines, or of what is tested in the “demonstration and shake down tests”.

Fallon says HMS Vengeance passed its test, and has rejoined the operational cycle.

Kevan Jones, the Labour former defence minister, asked the urgent question. He asks Fallon if it is true that the missile veered off course. And why was the problem not revealed? Was that David Cameron’s decision?

Fallon is responding to Jones.

He says that he disagrees with Jones on his call for greater transparency on this matter. It has never been the government’s practice to tell parliament about “demonstration and shake down” operations.

In the past there has sometimes been some publicity about these tests. But that is done on a case by case basis, he says.

Michael Fallon responds to urgent question about Trident

Michael Fallon says that a “demonstration and shake down” test took place on a submarine last summer. Contrary to reports in the Sunday papers, the test was a success, he says.

He says he will not comment on the operational details.

He says there is no doubt about the effectiveness of the nuclear deterrent.

The Commons is about to hear the urgent question on Trident.

Jacob Rees-Mogg, the Conservative MP, has just tried to get the Commons to sit in private, on the grounds that these are secret matter. There was a vote by acclamation, but Rees-Mogg’s motion was defeated.

GCHQ chief announces he is standing down

Robert Hannigan, the head of GCHQ, has announced he is to step down, my colleague Ewen MacAskill reports.

Updated

Michael Fallon, the defence secretary, will be responding to an urgent question about the Trident missile test error at 3.30pm.

Here is a Guardian video explainer.

What is Trident? Britain’s nuclear deterrent explained

Updated

A Copeland/Stoke byelections reading list

Here is a short Copeland/Stoke byelections reading list.

  • Labour has moved the writ for the byelections in Copeland and Stoke-on-Trent Central, paving the way for both contests to be held on Thursday 23 February.
  • Paul Waugh in his Huffington Post morning briefing, The Waugh Zone, says Labour’s prospects of holding Copeland do not look encouraging.

Some of the early Labour canvass returns in the Cumbria seat have not been encouraging. Although Oldham had similar early problems, and were turned around, things may not be so smooth in Copeland. I’m told that when Corbyn’s aide Katy Clark went canvassing on his ‘secret’ trip there last weekend, not a single supposedly solid ‘Labour promise’ voter told her they were definitely backing the party. Clark was so perplexed by the response she asked if the voter ID lists were wrong. She was told they were accurate.

Maybe that’s why John McDonnell took the highly unusual step on Marr yesterday of offering what sounded like a softening-up exercise for possible defeat in both Copeland and Stoke: “Since Brexit you can’t calculate by-election results on what’s gone on in the past so what we’re going to do is fight for every vote, and that’s what we’re going to do.”

The history of these contests tells us a lot about how unlikely Labour losses are. The last time a governing party gained a seat was 1982 - at a time when Labour was even more split than it is now. And there have only been two such occasions in the last sixty years. Yes, Labour did lose a couple of contests (Bermondsey in 1983 and Greenwich in 1987) to the famous Liberal/ SDP byelection machine in the 1980s, but since the Liberal Democrats are very unlikely to win either of these seats, a Richmond Park-style shock seems even less likely than Conservative or UKIP victories. If we look at the data on all such contests since 1983, as polling expert Matt Singh does in this post about Copeland, you’d expect Labour’s majority to increase, not decrease, even adjusting for present polling. Only using data from the recent Sleaford by-election - for a seat won in 2015 by the Conservatives and not Labour - can you make Copeland look competitive. If history holds - and we accept that we live in uncertain electoral times - these seats should stay Labour.

Here are some more pictures from the regional cabinet meeting in Daresbury, near Warrington.

Michelle O’Neill is speaking at a news conference in Belfast now.

She says that for being a Sinn Fein activist is a fact of life.

She says she will not let people down. She has learnt from the best, including her late father and Martin McGuinness, she says.

She says she McGuinness is a “political giant” and a “legend”. She says she has learnt an enormous amount from him, she says.

And he is “not finished yet”, she says.

She says these are challenging times. But Sinn Fein has never been afraid of a challenge, she says.

As an agriculture minister she decentralised a whole department, even though she was told that could not be done, she says.

And as a health minister she allowed gay men to donate blood, because it was the right thing to do, she says.

She says after the election there can be no return to the status quo. Sinn Fein will only participate in the power-sharing institutions if they deliver for everyone, and if people are treated with respect.

She says the election will be about citizens making a stand. The principles of the Good Friday agreement must be honoured, she says. She says the GFA and subsequent agreements must be fully implemented, not renegotiated.

She says the British government is on collision course with the EU. Sinn Fein will defend the right of people in Northern Ireland to stay in the EU through special status, she says.

Michelle O'Neill replaces Martin McGuinness as Sinn Féin's leader in Northern Ireland

Northern Ireland’s outgoing health minister, Michelle O’Neill, has been named the new leader of Sinn Féin in Northern Ireland, Henry McDonald reports.

Updated

Lunchtime summary

  • May has chaired a regional cabinet meeting in Daresbury, near Warrington, Cheshire, to publicise the government’s new industrial strategy. The 132-page green paper (pdf) has just been launched on the business department’s website. The strategy comprises 10 pillars. Here is the department’s summary,

Announcing the plan, May said:

This is a very important part of our plan for Britain. This is how we shape a stronger future for the UK and also ensure we are building a fairer Britain and a better Britain.

And I think it is absolutely right we are launching this strategy, here in the north west, because one of the themes that underpins what we are doing in the industrial strategy and underpins our plan for Britain, is ensuring we drive growth across the whole of the UK, that we ensure that we are building on the strengths of different parts of our economy and different parts of the UK, and that we see prosperity and opportunity spread across the country so everybody has those opportunities to get on in life.

  • A Guardian/ICM poll has given the Tories a 16-point lead over Labour, up two points from two weeks ago. (See 10.40am.)

On the Daily Politics Julian Lewis said that, after his Today interview this morning, he got a call from Sir Craig Oliver, David Cameron’s former communications chief, saying Lewis was wrong to blame Number 10 spin doctors for covering up the nuclear missile test failure. (See 9.08am.)

Lewis is entitled to feel aggrieved. At the Number 10 lobby briefing the prime minister’s spokeswoman said the Ministry of Defence, not Downing Street, took the decision not to publicise the missile test. (See 1.17pm.)

My colleague Ewen MacAskill has written a good Q&A on the Trident story.

No 10 lobby briefing - Summary

Here is a summary of the main points from the Number 10 lobby briefing.

  • Number 10 says Theresa May was aware of the problem with the Trident missile test when she urged MPs to back Trident renewal last summer. This is the question that May refused to answer four times when she was interviewed by Andrew Marr yesterday. This morning her spokeswoman said that the test took place under the previous prime minister, David Cameron. But when May took office she was briefed on a range of nuclear issues, including this one, the spokeswoman said. She said:

The defence secretary and the prime minister are routinely informed when one of these [Trident missile tests] are planned, and on the outcome of them. In this instance that was in June, so that was under the then prime minister. On taking office the current prime minister was briefed on a range of nuclear issues, including this.

Asked why May was not able to say this on the Marr Show yesterday, the spokeswoman said that the point May was making in the interview was that the effectiveness of Trident was “unquestionable”. The Commons vote in July was about the future of Trident, the spokeswoman said.

  • The spokeswoman said that overall the test was a successful. She said that the test was intended to show that the submarine and its crew was ready to go back into services.

There is an operational test designed to certify the submarine and the crew. These are known as “demonstration and shake down” operations. And we’ve been clear that the one in June, the submarine and crew were certified as a consequence of that.

The spokeswoman refused to comment in detail on what happened during the test, and she did not specifically deny the Sunday Times claim that the missile went off in the wrong direction, but she did suggest that the Sunday Times story was misleading and she said that overall the nuclear missile test was a success. Just because a newspaper published a story, and the government decided not to comment on it for national security reasons, that “doesn’t mean that they have always got everything right”, she said. She said the effectiveness of the Trident missile system was “unquestionable”.

We have been clear that the submarine and the crew were successfully tested and certified. That was the purpose of the operation. What is also clear is that the capability and effectiveness of the Trident missile is unquestionable.

What the spokeswoman said was consistent with what the Guardian’s defence correspondent Ewen MacAskill has reported about the incident. Here is an extract from his story.

The problem, according to defence sources, was not the missile itself or the launch system. The missile, they say, did not fail and veer off towards the US. The problem appears to have involved telemetry data, information gathered from various points and fed to the missile. There seem to have been a communication breakdown involving directional data. When this became obvious, the test was aborted.

  • The spokeswoman sought to clarify what Greg Clark meant when he said the government had a long-standing practice of not commenting on Trident missile tests. Clark was clearly wrong because the government has publicised these tests in the past. (See 9.57am.) The spokeswoman said the policy was not to go into operational detail about these tests.
  • The spokeswoman implied that it was the Ministry of Defence, not Downing Street, that decided not to publicise last year’s test. It is the MoD that normally decides what to say about these tests and in this case “there was no divergence from normal procedure”, she said.
  • The spokeswoman said that Labour, as the official opposition, and Julian Lewis, chair of the Commons defence committee, were told in advance about the test. The government also notified the countries it is obliged to inform under international treaties about the test.
  • The spokeswoman said that May would use her visit to President Trump at the end of this week to champion the importance of free trade. She will also speak to Trump about the importance of Nato. In the two conversations they have already had by phone Trump has already signalled his commitment to Nato, the spokeswoman said. The spokeswoman was not able to give further details of the visit, or say whether or not the president and the prime minister will hold a press conference. Asked if May felt about to trust Trump, given his tendency to change his mind on policy, the spokeswoman said that May had had “good conversations” with him and that they were establishing a “productive, effective working relationship”.
  • The spokeswoman refused to condemn the proposal that Trump made during his election campaign to move America’s embassy in Israel from Tel Aviv to Jerusalem. There has been speculation that Trump may confirm that this week. Asked if the government thought this would be helpful or unhelpful to the peace process in the Middle East, the spokeswoman said:

We want to focus on how we achieve a two-state solution. Decisions about location of embassies are for each country to take. We have no plans to to move our embassy.

Updated

Michael Fallon, the defence secretary, will be responding to the UQ on Trident, the BBC is reporting.

Defence minister forced to Commons to answer urgent question on Trident

There will be an urgent question on Trident at 3.30pm. A defence minister (perhaps Michael Fallon, the defence secretary, but alternatively one of his juniors) will have to respond.

Huffington Post’s Paul Waugh says David Cameron’s media team are denying being involved in the cover-up of the nuclear missile test failure. Julian Lewis blamed them in his Today interview this morning. (See 9.38am.)

May did know about Trident nuclear missile test problem before Commons vote, No 10 admits

I’m just back from the Number 10 lobby briefing. Most of the questions were about the Trident missile test incident and the key point to emerge was this:

  • Number 10 says Theresa May was aware of the problem with the Trident missile test when she urged MPs to back Trident renewal last summer. This is the question that May refused to answer four times when she was interviewed by Andrew Marr yesterday. This morning her spokeswoman said that the test took place under the previous prime minister, David Cameron. But when May took office she was briefed on a range of nuclear issues, including this one, the spokeswoman said.
  • The spokeswoman said that overall the test was a successful. She refused to comment in detail on what happened during the test, and she did not specifically deny the Sunday Times claim that the missile went off in the wrong direction, but she did suggest that the Sunday Times story was misleading and she said that overall the nuclear missile test was a success. She said the effectiveness of the Trident missile system was “unquestionable”.

I will post a full summary shortly.

Labour MPs Tristram Hunt and Jamie Reed have formally stood down from the House of Commons, paving the way for by-elections in Stoke-on-Trent Central and Copeland on February 23, the Press Association reports.

Under arcane rules governing MPs’ resignations, Hunt has been appointed steward of the Chiltern Hundreds and Reed steward of the Manor of Northstead - Crown appointments which bar their holders from sitting in the Commons.

I’m off to the Number 10 lobby briefing now. I will post against after 11.30am.

Guardian/ICM poll shows Tory lead over Labour rising to 16 points

We’ve got a new Guardian/ICM poll out today. And it’s not very encouraging for Labour.

Ukip, the Lib Dems and the Greens are all up 1 point over the last fortnight. But Labour is down 2 points, taking the Tory lead up 2 points to 16 points.

Here are the figures.

Conservatives: 42% (no change from Guardian/ICM two weeks ago)

Labour: 26% (down 2)

Ukip: 13% (up 1)

Lib Dems: 10% (up 1)

Greens: 5% (up 1)

Conservative lead: 16 points (up 2)

The poll also includes some Brexit-related questions that we will post later.

ICM Unlimited interviewed an online sample of 2052 adults aged 18+ on 20-22 January 2017. Interviews were conducted across the country and the results have been weighted to the profile of all adults. ICM is a member of the British Polling Council and abides by its rules.

On BBC Radio 4’s Westminster House last night John Whittingdale, the Conservative former culture secretary, said Theresa May’s refusal four times to tell Andrew Marr whether or not she knew about the Trident missile failure when she spoke in favour of renewing Trident in the Commons debate a few weeks later was a mistake. He said:

Given it was the splash story of the Sunday Times it was fairly predictable that Andrew [Marr] would want to ask her about it. I don’t know if they had discussed what line she should take but I suspect her apparent inability to answer was not the best answer.

Updated

This is what Greg Clark, the business secretary, said on the Today programme this morning when asked if the government was willing to confirm that a Trident missile test went wrong. He said:

It’s been the long-standing policy not to comment on tests of weapons systems and, if that’s the approach that you take, I think we have to abide by that approach.

On Sky News a few minutes ago Clark was also asked about this, and used much the same line. Sarah-Jane Mee, the presenter, then put it to him that in the past the government has released information about successful Trident missile tests. Here is a story about one such test in 2012.

And here is video footage of that test on YouTube.

A Trident missile test.

The crew of the submarine involved, HMS Vigilant, were later given a trophy for testing the Trident missile. This was written up here at length by the Royal Navy’s official newspaper, Navy News.

When this was put to Clark, he ducked the question, just saying that Trident has been an important part of the UK’s defence for many years.

Updated

Brendan O’Hara, the SNP’s defence spokesman at Westminster, told BBC Radio Scotland this morning that the government could not use “national security” as a reason not to comment on the Trident missile test failure. He said:

I think there’s two issues here. I think there’s an operational matter and I think there’s a very serious political matter.

I think the political matter is there was an attempted cover-up by the government. Something went terribly wrong with this experiment, with this launch, and the government for its own political ends decided to cover it up.

This was a particularly difficult launch, by the sound of it, and the fact that a Trident missile went astray, went veering off course towards one of our allies, is something that is deeply, deeply worrying.

This is not a national security issue. The government can’t, as they love to do, hide behind the national security smokescreen. The public, who are paying over two hundred thousand million pounds for this renewal, have a right to know if it works or not.

Here are the main points from Julian Lewis’s interview on the Today programme about the Trident missile test failure. Lewis is the Conservative MP who chairs the Commons defence committee.

  • Lewis said David Cameron’s administration was to blame for what he described as the cover-up of the Trident missile test failure. (See 9.08am.) Whoever took the decision to cover this up deserved to be sacked, he said, before saying that Cameron’s team had all been sacked anyway.
  • Lewis said that it was wrong for the government not to make a comment on Trident missile tests that fail when it does comment on ones that succeed. And he said he was “fairly sure” that ministers would end up commenting on this incident.

This sort of event is one that you can’t play both ways. These tests are routine, though infrequent, in this country, though they happen more regularly in America, and as is well known we share the missiles, so you must look at the tests in totality. And whenever they work, which is 99% of the time, films are released of them working. So whichever person decided that they wanted to draw a veil over one that did not work really should have been sacked. But as all that regime have been sacked now, I think hopefully a line can be drawn in the near future ...

I always think with something like this it is better to lay it on the line ... In the end you have always got to assume that something like this will come out.

  • He said Trident missiles had been successfully tested more than 150 times in the UK and in America.
  • He criticised Cameron for delaying the vote in renewing Trident until after the 2015 election. That was a “love gift to the Liberal Democrats”, he said, and an “outrageous decision”.

The BBC’s Laura Kuenssberg points out an obvious flaw in the argument that Greg Clark, the business secretary, deployed on Today this morning when he claimed the government never commented on matters like the Trident missile test. (See 9.08am.)

Cameron to blame for cover-up of Trident missile test failure, says top Tory

Nothing has been confirmed yet, but it is very likely that this afternoon we’ll get a statement of some kind from a defence minster about the revelation that a Trident missile test went wrong last summer and that MPs were not told about this when they voted to renew Trident a few weeks later. The Sunday Times broke the story yesterday and on the Andrew Marr Show Theresa May refused four times to say whether she knew about the failure when she spoke in the Commons in favour of Trident renewal.

On the Today programme this morning Julian Lewis, the Conservative MP who chairs the Commons defence committee, accused David Cameron of being to blame for the cover-up. Lewis said:

In fairness to the present prime minister one has to accept that she has been dealt a rotten hand because this matter, the decision to cover it up, if there was such a decision, as appears to be the case, was taken in the dying days of the Cameron administrations when spin doctors were the rule in Number 10 Downing Street.

Lewis also said that he did not think the government would be able to carry on refusing to answer questions about this. About half an hour earlier Greg Clark, the business secretary, who was on talking about the government’s industrial strategy, refused to confirm that a Trident missile test had gone wrong, saying there was a long-standing policy of not commenting on these matters.

I will post more from Lewis’ interview shortly.

Here is the agenda for the day.

Morning: Theresa May chairs a cabinet meeting in Warrington to announce the government’s industrial strategy. As Rowena Mason reports, May will signal an era of greater state intervention in the economy as she launches her industrial strategy with a promise of “sector deals”, a new system of technical education and better infrastructure.

11am: Number 10 lobby briefing.

11am: Carwyn Jones, the Labour Welsh first minister, and Leanne Wood, the Plaid Cymru leader, hold a joint news conference to launch a paper setting out what Wales wants from the Brexit negotiations.

12pm: Labour MPs Stephen Kinnock and Anna Turley launch a report on the steel industry.

2.30pm: Amber Rudd, the home secretary, takes questions in the Commons.

3.30pm: A defence minister is expected to either make a statement on the failed Trident missile test, or to answer an urgent question on the topic, but at this point this has not been confirmed.

As usual, I will be covering breaking political news as it happens, as well as bringing you the best reaction, comment and analysis from the web. I plan to post a summary at lunchtime and another in the afternoon.

You can read all today’s Guardian politics stories here.

If you want to follow me or contact me on Twitter, I’m on @AndrewSparrow.

I try to monitor the comments BTL but normally I find it impossible to read them all. If you have a direct question, do include “Andrew” in it somewhere and I’m more likely to find it. I do try to answer direct questions, although sometimes I miss them or don’t have time. Alternatively you could post a question to me on Twitter.

Updated

 

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