Katie Allen 

Mark Carney’s year in quotes: ‘We are actors in a play written by others’

As the man charged with maintaining calm in the economy, the Bank of England governor has had a challenging 2016
  
  

Bank of England governor Mark Carney delivers the the financial stability report in November.
Bank of England governor Mark Carney delivers the the financial stability report in November. Photograph: Andy Rain/EPA

When Canadian Mark Carney accepted the job of Bank of England governor in 2012, he said he was honoured to accept the “important and demanding role”. It is doubtful he could have foreseen, however, quite how demanding it would turn out to be.

As the man charged with maintaining calm in the financial markets and the economy, Carney had the most testing of years in 2016. The year started with wild swings in global markets. As the EU referendum campaign got under way, Carney’s Brexit recession warning drew calls for his resignation from pro-leave supporters.

The shock result sent the pound tumbling and sparked a political crisis. The Bank stepped in with an interest rate cut and more electronic money printing. There was a fresh onslaught from politicians in autumn as senior Tories lambasted the Bank over the effects of low interest rates, but after weeks of speculation over his future Carney agreed to stay on as governor for an extra year until the Brexit deadline is expected to expire in 2019.

After Donald Trump won the US presidential race on an anti-globalisation ticket, Carney ended the year with a plea for politicians to do more to share out the gains from global trade.

Here is Carney’s year in quotes:

A new year warning

Carney started the year on a gloomy note by pouring cold water on market talk of a rate rise, saying UK growth was still too weak.

Amid turmoil in global markets in January, Carney said the UK faced “a powerful set of forces”.

“The world is weaker and UK growth has slowed,” he added. “The year has turned and in my view the decision proved straightforward. Now is not yet the time to raise interest rates.”

His new stance marked something of a climbdown on his guidance in the summer of 2015 that a decision about raising rates would “come into sharper relief” at the end of the year. That did little to help shake off the tag of “unreliable boyfriend” given to the Bank governor by one MP.

The kindness of strangers

In one of many warnings to come about the potential consequences of a vote for Brexit, Carney said in January that concerns about a UK exit from the EU could test “the kindness of strangers” – a reference to the global investors who fund the UK’s big current account deficit with the rest of the world.

“The global general environment has become much more febrile, much more volatile, and relying on the kindness of strangers is not optimal in that kind of environment,” Carney told MPs.

We’re not out of ammunition

In February at a G20 meeting in Shanghai, Carney argued that central banks still had some firepower left to prop up the global recovery, but he warned that politicians must not rely solely on low interest rates and should use government policy to help boost growth.

“Several commentators are peddling the myth that monetary policy is ‘out of ammunition’ … This is wrong, but the widespread absence of global price pressures demands that our firepower be well aimed,” Carney said.

Carney defends Bank over Brexit warnings

In March, Carney was forced to fend off accusations that Threadneedle Street was being too supportive of the government’s pro-EU line and described as “entirely unfounded” the suggestion from the pro-Brexit Conservative MP Jacob Rees-Mogg that the Bank was being politically partisan.

“I am expressing the views of the Bank,” he said. “We weren’t leant on by anybody.”

Brexit could stall UK economy

In April, Carney said Britain’s economy could struggle to grow if the country voted to quit the EU, and warned that Britain’s economy already appeared to be losing steam before the EU referendum.

“Risks around the referendum are the biggest risks facing the UK economy, we have contingency planning to decrease the potential impacts of uncertainty,” he told the Stockport Express newspaper.

Carney drops the R-word

At a press conference in May, Carney said a vote to leave the EU could possibly tip the UK into recession.

“Material slowdown in growth, notable increase in inflation. That’s the MPC’s judgement. It’s a judgment not based on a whim, it’s a judgment based on rigorous analysis and careful consideration. “There’s a range of possible scenarios around those directions, which could possibly include a technical recession.”

Prepared for referendum fallout

After the referendum result is confirmed, with share prices crashing and David Cameron announcing his intention to step down as prime minister, Carney insisted: “We are well prepared for this.”

He said: “We have taken all the necessary steps to prepare for today’s events. In the future, we will not hesitate to take any additional measures required to meet our responsibilities as the United Kingdom moves forward.”

Economic post-traumatic stress disorder

A week after the referendum, Carney said “some monetary policy easing will likely be required over the summer”, signalling that a rate cut was coming. In a wide-ranging speech he also highlighted a cocktail of economic, political and geopolitical uncertainty.

“All this uncertainty has contributed to a form of economic post-traumatic stress disorder amongst households and businesses, as well as in financial markets,” he said.

“Today, uncertainty has meant an inchoate sense of economic insecurity for many people, despite generalised economic prosperity. Across the advanced economies, employment appears less secure, wages more subdued, and inequality more pronounced.”

We were right to warn on Brexit

In July, Carney faced questions from parliament’s Treasury committee over whether the Bank had “peddled phoney forecasts” about the risks of a Brexit vote.

The governor said accusations from critics that the Bank had been dishonest were “extraordinary”.

“We have an obligation to give these assessments. “If we view something as the biggest risk to financial stability, we have an obligation to parliament and to the people of the UK to make that clear.”

Time for an interest rate cut

Cutting official interest rates to a record low of 0.25% and expanding the Bank’s electronic money-printing programme to shore up the post-referendum economy, Carney said it was time for action.

“There is a clear case for stimulus, and stimulus now, in order to have an effect when the economy really needs it.”

Serene about our stance

In September, with the economy continuing to show signs of resilience since the referendum, Carney rejected criticism that the central bank had overcooked warnings of a hit to the economy from the Brexit vote. He also defended the Bank’s post-referendum stimulus package.

“I am absolutely serene about the … judgments made both by the MPC and the FPC,” Carney told parliament’s Treasury committee, referring to the Bank’s monetary and financial policy committees.

Call me Carnage

Fielding questions from schoolchildren in Coventry, Carney revealed he likes milk chocolate and dogs.

Asked about childhood nicknames, he answered: “I was given nicknames that were variants of my last name which is Carney, so I was called Carnival, or Carnage, or things like that. I like Carnage a little better than Carnival. It seemed a little more manly I guess.”

We are actors in a play

Carney made another call in September for politicians to stop relying on central banks to do all the heavy lifting on supporting economic growth.

“The Bank of England has long stressed that central bank policies are not the cause of low rates, but responses to them. We are actors in a play written by others.

“Long-run prosperity was never in the gift of monetary policymakers. As the 10th anniversary of the start of the crisis approaches, a consensus is growing that escaping this low-growth, low-inflation trap will require a rebalancing between monetary, fiscal and structural policies.”

We won’t take orders from politicians

Just a week after Theresa May took a swipe at the impact of the Bank’s actions on “ordinary” people, Carney said: “We are not going to take instruction on our policies from the political side.”

Politics won’t scare me off

After an onslaught on his performance by the Conservative party establishment, Carney insisted he would not be swayed by political issues as he weighed up the option of departing in two years or extending his contract by a further three years to 2021.

“It is entirely personal, and no one should read anything into that decision in terms of government policy, actual, imagined, potential, past, etc. This is a role that requires total attention, devotion, and I intend to give it for as long as I can.”

I’ll see Brexit process through

At the end of October, Carney ended weeks of speculation about his future by agreeing to stay on as governor of the Bank of England until 2019.

“By taking my term in office beyond the expected period of the article 50 process, this should help contribute to securing an orderly transition to the UK’s new relationship with Europe,” he said.

Consumers are shrugging off Brexit vote so far

Keeping interest rates at their record low of 0.25% and warning of higher inflation ahead, Carney and his colleagues on the monetary policy committee said individuals seemed to be resilient for now.

“For households, the signs of an economic slowdown are notable by their absence. Perceptions of job security remain strong. Wages are growing at around the same modest pace as at the start of the year,” he said.

Central banks haven’t raised inequality

“An excessive focus on monetary policy in many respects is a massive blame-deflection exercise. We can’t make the structural decisions that change the path of productivity. Monetary policy doesn’t drive fundamentals,” Carney told MPs in November.

Rest of Europe needs City of London

In November, Carney warned that European economies could be damaged if their access to the City of London was disrupted after Britain leaves the EU. “The UK is effectively the investment banker for Europe.”

Globalisation is leaving many behind

Carney finished the year with a rallying cry to policymakers across advanced economies to tackle the causes of a growing sense of “isolation and detachment” among people who felt left behind by globalisation.

Speaking weeks after Trump won the US presidential race, Carney said: “From the rising spectre of global terrorism to intensifying geopolitical tensions and financial crises, for too long, for too many people, the world seems to be getting riskier … We need to move towards more inclusive growth where everyone has a stake in globalisation.”

He also called for economists to be more honest about the price paid by some for technological advances. “The fundamental challenge is that, alongside its great benefits, every technological revolution mercilessly destroys jobs and livelihoods – and therefore identities – well before new ones emerge.”

 

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