The vote in the Greek parliament saw some unlikely allies back the government’s Christmas bonus to pensioners, with the final figure in favour 196. Our correspondent Helena Smith says:
#Greek pension bonus passes with 196 votes (61 'present') in landmark ballot that has seen far right #goldendawn back leftist #syriza
— Helena Smith (@HelenaSmithGDN) December 15, 2016
The 61 were New Democracy which effectively abstained.
How long & short a day is in politics! This AM #Greek gov on the defensive over pre-Xmas fiscal gifts, now gamble seems 2 b paying off
— Helena Smith (@HelenaSmithGDN) December 15, 2016
Will #Greek PM #AlexisTsipras continue on his #anti-#austerity roll after 2nite's vote? That is the question
— Helena Smith (@HelenaSmithGDN) December 15, 2016
The sight of #Greek debt crisis mutating into war of words between country's #creditors is warming the cockles of many hearts in #Athens
— Helena Smith (@HelenaSmithGDN) December 15, 2016
On that note, it’s time to close for the evening. Thanks for all your comments, and we’ll be back tomorrow.
Greek parliament approves pension deal
#Greece's parliament approves #Tsipras' controversial pensioners bonus w/ 195 out of 300 votes.
— Nick Barnets (@NickBarnets) December 15, 2016
European markets move higher
With the Federal Reserve raising interest rates for the first time in a year and talking of three more increases to come next year, the dollar has strengthened and helped push banking shares higher, supporting European markets in general. Simon Gergel, chief investment officer of UK equities at Allianz told Reuters:
Rising interest rates are generally quite good for banks, depending on their specific situation, but in general they are sitting on large deposit bases and they can make a bigger spread as interest rates go up.
The market gains came despite a fall in commodity stocks after the greenback moved higher. The final scores in Europe showed:
- The FTSE 100 finished 49.82 points or 0.72% higher at 6999.01, tantalising close to the 7000 level
- Germany’s Dax rose 1.08% to 11,366.40
- France’s Cac closed up 1.05% at 4819.23
- Italy’s FTSE MIB jumped 2.09% to 18,994.79
- Spain’s Ibex ended up 1.33% at 9340.8
- But in Greece, the Athens market dipped 0.88% to 613.76
On Wall Street the Dow Jones Industrial Average is currently
In Athens the vote on the controversial legislation has just begun as thousands of pensioners take to the streets in Athens.
With the support of three political parties and the ruling two-party coalition the ballot is easily expected to secure sought support to be passed into law. That means pensioners will receive a 13th payment before Christmas. Helena Smith reports:
Pensioners, representing organizations across the country, have gathered en masse in central Athens, in a protest rally now headed towards the prime minister’s office. The demonstration could not be better timed, coinciding with the vote and the spotlight the Greek PM, Alexis Tsipras, has inadvertently placed on pensioners with the announcement of his surprise pre-Christmas bonus. Holding banners decrying the loss of benefits many have suffered since the crisis began, they demanded that the cuts be reinstated. “We can’t forget what we gave to the social security system, we are not going to give up what is rightly ours, we are not going to sell our dignity,” the organisations said in a statement.
Pensioners, some living on as little as €300 a month, are among those who have been hardest hit by the harsh fiscal policies debt-stricken Greece has been forced to apply in return for international rescue funds. While Tsipras’ unexpected gift has been welcomed most do not feel it goes far enough. “They have to give us back our full pensions, which represent all the years that we worked, all the contributions that we made, not make a mockery of us with crumbs and bonuses,” said Dimos Koubouris, who heads the federation of pensioners.
Updated
The Greek parliament is due to start voting shortly on the government’s plan to pay one-off Christmas bonuses to pensioners, the move which annoyed the country’s creditors so much they put debt relief on hold.
Meanwhile Greek prime minister Alexis Tsipras is at the European summit in Brussels:
Updated
As markets move higher, Chris Beauchamp, chief market analyst at IG, said:
Despite a woeful performance from the mining sector and falling oil prices, the FTSE 100 is ending the day firmly in positive territory. Clearly the number of stocks expected to benefit from rising US rates outpaces those who will suffer from lower commodity prices. Investors are spending their first 24 hours in a new world, one dominated by rising US interest rates plus an impending fiscal stimulus that is meant to rescue the US from economic malaise.
With the euro in full flight it is not surprising to see eurozone markets racing, and this is probably something we should get used to for the year ahead. Meanwhile, the FTSE 100’s performance will depend on whether the rising dollar does too much to torpedo the commodity rally, or whether higher rates will lift bank stocks sufficiently in the year ahead to offset this. 15 December 2016 may well prove to be a microcosm of what 2017 has to offer.
Back with the US and the Dow Jones Industrial Average continues to climb following the Fed rate decision.
It is now up around 154 points at 19,946 and heading towards 20,000.
And Moscovici has also met the head of Greece’s opposition party New Democracy:
Good exchange of views with @kmitsotakis. @EU_Commission has consistently called for broad political support for necessary reforms. #Greece pic.twitter.com/2zvdK1gseq
— Pierre Moscovici (@pierremoscovici) December 15, 2016
Back with Greece and European commissioner Pierre Moscovici has tweeted:
Timely meeting with @tsipras_eu to discuss conclusion of the second review. #Greece pic.twitter.com/PbzCMGssed
— Pierre Moscovici (@pierremoscovici) December 15, 2016
The FTSE 100 has regained the 7000 level for the first time since the end of October.
Bank shares are among the leading risers after the US rate hike from the Federal Reserve, and hopes that Italian banks will be recapitalised.
Updated
Positive US figures
Earlier there were some new US economic figures, all fairly positive in the wake of the Fed’s interest rate rise and plans for another three increases next year.
The consumer price index rose 0.2%, in line with expectations, while the New York Federal Reserve’s Empire manufacturing index came in at 9 in December, well above the consensus of 4 and the November figure of 1.5.
Jobless claims fell for the second week in a row, down 4,000 to a seasonally adjusted 254,000. This is the 93rd straight week that claims have been below 300,000, which is a level associated with a healthy jobs market.
Meanwhile the US current account deficit fell from $118.3bn in the second quarter to $113bn in the latest three months. A jump in soybean shipments boosted exports, according to the commerce department.
On Wall Street, the Dow Jones Industrial Average is now up around 120 points or 0.6%.
Tsakalotos has defended Athens’ plans to pay out one-off benefits for low-income pensioners ahead of Christmas. A day after eurozone lenders put short-term debt relief for Greece on hold in response, he told Reuters in Berlin:
I don’t think this is a big issue. We have bigger fish to fry.
Tsakalotos also argued that Europe needed to show it could solve its own problems in order to restore confidence among working-class people after populist gains in a series of European elections, the Brexit vote and the Italian referendum.
On Wall Street, the Dow has opened higher, after losing more than 100 points yesterday following the Fed rate hike.
Dow Jones up 46 points, or 0.2% to 19,837.04
Nasdaq up 2.45 points at 4923.66
S&P 500 up 1.96 points to 2255.24
His comments came as French President François Hollande jumped to Greece’s defence of Greece after European creditors pulled a recently announced debt relief package for the country.
Hollande said ahead of today’s summit of EU leaders that
it is out of the question to ask for further additional efforts from Greece or prevent them from taking a number of sovereign measures that respect the commitments” that Greece previously took.
Just days after a eurozone agreement to approve some debt relief, Greek prime minister Alexis Tsipras surprised eurozone creditors by announcing a Christmas bonus for some 1.6 million low-income pensioners and committing to restore a lower sales tax rate for Aegean Sea islanders.
Tsipras said at the summit there’s room for “a breakthrough, without blackmail.”
Greek bond yields surge ahead of parliamentary vote
Greek bond yields are surging, with ten-year yields hitting a one-month high of 7.61%, up 25 basis points. Short-dated yields spiked to a four-month high ahead of a parliamentary vote on a bonus to poor pensioners that threatens to derail the country’s debt relief plans.
Two-year bond yields soared more than 150bps to 8.65%, the highest since August, and five-year yields jumped 16 bps to 8.34%.
The Greek finance minister, Euclid Tsakalotos, said the Greek government must be credible with its creditors, but also with the people of Greece. He insisted that the euro group had not taken any decision on debt relief for Greece yet, according to Reuters.
#Eurozone suspends #Greece debt relief as Gov starts spending outside agreed fiscal plan. Ultimately, strains were always going to show.
— Robin Bew (@RobinBew) December 15, 2016
Back in the markets, the euro has slipped below $1.04 for the first time in 14 years.
#Euro in free fall. Drops below $1.04. pic.twitter.com/cHhAUpPU2C
— Holger Zschaepitz (@Schuldensuehner) December 15, 2016
Naeem Hamed of Think Markets blames the widening gap between monetary policy on the opposite sides of the Atlantic.
The Fed over in the US is tightening their belt and the ECB is still no way close to taper its monetary policy. Traders have gone aggressive today and the divergence in monetary policies is the major focal point for them.
Worth noting that the euro is doing less badly against a basket of other currencies:
Gentle reminder that the trade weighted euro is up 6% from its 2015 lows. pic.twitter.com/sYSWkicMGs
— Mike Bird (@Birdyword) December 15, 2016
Newsflash: Rupert Murdoch’s 21st Century Fox has formally lodged its £11.7bn bid to take full control of Sky.
If the deal goes through, it will create the most powerful media group in the UK.
My colleague Mark Sweney explains what happens next:
Murdoch will now need to gain regulatory approval for the deal, which values Sky at more than £18bn, which will give him control of pay-TV operations in the UK, Germany and Italy; in addition to ownership of the Times, Sunday Times and Sun, and radio group TalkSport.
Fox has not raised the initial £10.75 per share offer it tabled on Friday.
Karen Bradley, the culture secretary, now has 10 working days to decide whether the deal raises public interest concerns, specifically relating to media plurality.
Here’s the full story:
BoE decision: What the experts say
City experts have rapidly digested today’s news from the Bank of England, so here’s the best early reaction:
Ian Kernohan, economist at Royal London Asset Management, predicts that the Bank of England will leaves rates unchanged for some time:
“The Bank of England was not expected to change policy at this meeting, and their statement suggests that the balance of arguments favours keeping policy unchanged for the foreseeable future. They note that the forward-looking components of business surveys are weaker than those for current output levels, suggesting a slowdown in 2017. Also, with trade weighted sterling moving higher since their last meeting, this would result in a slightly lower path for inflation than they had envisaged.
“The MPC will remain sensitive to any slowdown in economic activity next year, with real income growth squeezed by rising inflation and Brexit uncertainty impacting corporate investment plans. In my view, the balance of probability still favours another small rate reduction next year, and with the Fed hiking rates, this will continue to put downward pressure on sterling against the dollar.”
But Nick Dixon, Investment Director at investment group Aegon, believes inflationary pressure will force interest rates up next year:
“With inflation moving towards the Bank’s 2% target quicker than expected, the only way is up for interest rates in 2017. Base rate hikes will be the tool of choice for the monetary policy committee to keep prices in check. Mortgage holders should consult their advisers now about fixing their rates before they rise”
Kallum Pickering of German bank Berenberg says the Bank is keeping a close eye on inflation and wage growth:
In August, by cutting the bank rate and expanding its asset purchases the BoE helped avoid a crisis immediately after the Brexit vote. The good news is that the work is over for now. The UK economy requires no further support from monetary policy. The economy has outperformed expectations since the referendum. And while growth is set to slow next year the risk of recession looks low.
The BoE’s GDP growth outlook of 1.4% in 2017 and 1.5% in 2018 is broadly in line with our own call of 1.5% growth in each year. The final minutes of the year indicate that the MPC is in a neutral gear for now.
The committee continues to pay close attention to the Brexit-related downside risks to growth, especially the squeeze on real incomes coming from the anticipated rise in inflation from the sharp sterling depreciation.
From the Bank of England, my colleague Katie Allen reports:
The Bank of England has left interest rates at their record low of 0.25% but repeated a warning that higher inflation and slower wage growth risk squeezing household budgets and spending next year.
The Bank’s nine-strong monetary policy committee voted unanimously to keep rates on hold and maintain the current programme of electronic money printing known as quantitative easing. Policymakers had cut rates and expanded QE back in August to shore up confidence in the wake of June’s vote to leave the EU.
In minutes to its final meeting of the year, the MPC said it would continue to trade off the effects of a weaker pound raising inflation against the prospects of economic growth and employment slowing. For now, policymakers said they saw no need to change policy as little had appeared to change since the MPC published its forecasts for the economy in November’s inflation report.
“A slowdown in growth remained likely, but there had been little news since the time of the November inflation report about domestic activity and, although the near-term global outlook had improved, this was counterbalanced by more elevated risks,” the minutes said...
Here’s Katie’s full story:
Pound slides as Bank of England sees lower inflation
The pound has fallen sharply against the US dollar, as investors digest today’s Bank of England decision.
Today’s minutes show that the Bank has revised its inflation forecasts down a little, due to the recent recovery in sterling. So that means there’s less chance that interest rates might be hiked.
The MPC says:
“Since the Committee’s previous meeting, sterling’s trade-weighted exchange rate has appreciated by over 6%, while dollar oil prices have risen by 14%.
All else equal, this would result in a slightly lower path for inflation than envisaged in the November inflation report, though it is still likely to overshoot the target later in 2017 and through 2018.”
And that’s enough to knock almost one cent off the pound today, to $1.2478.
Pound falls against dollar after Bank of England's latest comments on inflation https://t.co/Eq1QZgQ145 pic.twitter.com/ajVdwWO5Fo
— Bloomberg Brexit (@Brexit) December 15, 2016
The Bank of England believes that the global economy could benefit from Donald Trump’s pledge to boost government spending.
The MPC says:
“Since November, long-term interest rates have risen internationally, including in the United Kingdom.
In part, this reflects expectations of looser fiscal policy in the United States which, if it materialises, will help to underpin the slightly greater momentum in the global economy evident in a range of data since the summer.”
Bank of England sees 'elevated risks'
The minutes of this month’s Bank of England meeting show that the central bank sees no need to change monetary policy, as little has changed since November’s inflation report.
The monetary policy committee says:
“A slowdown in growth remained likely, but there had been little news since the time of the November inflation report about domestic activity and, although the near-term global outlook had improved, this was counterbalanced by more elevated risks.”
The minutes also highlighted a “notable decline in consumer confidence”, repeated a forecast for unemployment to rise next year and for inflation to overtake pay growth “marginally” in 2017.
The Bank reiterates its previous stance that is was ready to make monetary policy tighter or looser depending on how the economy evolves as the Brexit process gets underway.
“Monetary policy could respond, in either direction, to changes to the economic outlook as they unfolded to ensure a sustainable return of inflation to the 2% target.”
The BoE has also voted to leave its quantitative easing programme, created to stimulate the UK economy, unchanged at today’s meeting.
That means it will still buy and hold £435bn of UK sovereign debt, and £10bn of corporate debt too.
And all three decisions were unanimous.
MPC holds #BankRate at 0.25%, maintains government bond purchases at £435bn and corporate bond purchases at £10bn. pic.twitter.com/mUcf8uYdRW
— Bank of England (@bankofengland) December 15, 2016
BANK OF ENGLAND LEAVES INTEREST RATES UNCHANGED
Breaking: The Bank of England has voted to leave UK interest rates unchanged at their current record low of 0.25%.
More to follow
Updated
Here we go!
Live shots as the Bank of England's MPC get down to business on interest rates this month pic.twitter.com/8O6CiwvVGw
— World First (@World_First) December 15, 2016
The Bank of England’s critics claim it blundered this summer by slashing interest rates to 0.25% and restarting its quantitative easing plan.
They point to the decent economic data since the Brexit vote, as evidence that the BoE over-reacted.
But some City experts believe things would be rather worse if the BoE hasn’t moved swiftly.
Ralf Preusser, global head of rates research at Bank of America Merrill Lynch, told Bloomberg TV this morning that the Bank had provided valuable leadership immediately after the EU referendum.
The Bank’s “incredibly reactive” approach, and the unexpectedly rapid leadership race to succeed David Cameron, protected the economy.
And that’s why the confidence shock which had been expected “did not materialise”, says Preusser, adding that he “wouldn’t criticised the Bank for ‘jumping the gun’”, as some do.
Updated
It’s time for our regular update from Reuters’ source in the Italian government:
RTRS - ITALIAN GOVERNMENT READY TO INTERVENE WITH 15 BLN EUROS TO RECAPITALISE AILING BANKS IF NECESSARY - SOURCES
— Credit & Macro PM (@creditmacro) December 15, 2016
Note the ‘if necessary’ -- Italy’s government is still hoping to persuade private investors to provide funds to recapitalise lenders such as Monte dei Paschi.
Bank of England: What to watch for
Just 25 minutes to go until the Bank of England announces its interest rate decision.
With everyone expecting No Change, the real news will probably be in the minutes of this month’s meeting.
Kathleen Brooks of City Index says there are three things to watch out for:
- Inflation: price pressure is building, could the larger than forecast increase in prices in November worry the Bank, especially if this pace of increase continues?
- Any clarification on just how tolerant the Bank will be of an inflation over-shoot.
- Could the Bank balance any hawkish concern about inflation, with concern about the impact of Brexit and the triggering of Article 50.
OUCH! The euro just slumped to a new near 14-year low against the rampant US dollar.
EURO DROPS 1% TO $1.0435, LOWEST LEVEL SINCE JANUARY 2003
— Francine Lacqua (@flacqua) December 15, 2016
Speaking of Greece, European commissioner Pierre Moscovici has hit back at the International Monetary Fund over its warning that Athens hasn’t tackled its tax and pension problems.
Writing in the Financial Times, Moscovici said Greece had made “unprecedented efforts” including “major reforms of the pension, personal income tax and VAT systems”.
Is the commission being too lenient on Greece in contrast with an ostensibly more realistic IMF position? Of course not! While it has worked tirelessly to help Greece build a sustainable recovery, it has also pressed the authorities there to respect their commitments. The commission has been an honest broker, representing the interests of the eurozone as a whole.
The next step is to conclude the second programme review, which hinges on an agreement to bring the IMF on board. This cannot happen as long as positions are defined by dogma or short-term political tactics with no regard for the social effect of the measures proposed.
More here: Greece cannot be condemned to austerity for ever
No response from the IMF, yet anyway. But former Greek finance minister Yanis Varoufakis decided to attack Moscovici on Twitter, earning a rebuke from the commissioner’s press officer. All terribly edifying.
It's just like old times. pic.twitter.com/kHlRQprVes
— Marcus Walker (@MMQWalker) December 15, 2016
Updated
Greek MPs urged to back help for pensioners.
Over in Greece, prime minister Alexis Tsipras seems to have found support from the majority of political parties who will be backing his drive to hand out pre-Christmas fiscal gifts in a roll-call vote later today.
MPs are being urged to back Tsipras, even though the giveaways have alarmed Greece’s creditors - prompting them to freeze short-term debt relief plans yesterday.
Our correspondent Helena Smith reports.
Passions are flaring ahead of today’s vote with senior cadres in the Syriza party calling it one of the most crucial ballots since the leftists assumed power. Addressing the 300-member House this morning, the Interior Minister Panos Skourletis emphasised the significance of the moment.
“This is not a chance moment but a moment where parliament should affirm the right of the government of the country to do the self-evident. The agreement [with lenders] foresees it and the numbers prove it. I don’t understand why we should wait. Citizens’ needs, pensioners’ needs have a priority over the needs of Brussels.”
Ahead of the ballot political parties, including the far right Golden Dawn, are signalling they will endorse the embattled prime minister’s spending spree. The KKE communist party and social democrat Pasok party also said they would support Alexis Tsipras’ decision to, in effect, grant retirees a 13th pension in the form of a pre-Christmas bonus.
The main opposition centre right New Democracy party said it would not support the legislation and instead vote “present.”
Speaking in Brussels, its leader Kyriakos Mitsotakis declared that the leftist-led administration was “gambling” with the debt-stricken country’s future. Tsipras, he said, “has once more proved himself to be immoral and dangerous.”
Greek journalist Eleni Varvitsiotis has heard that creditors are about to go public with their concerns:
The report of the institutions regarding @atsipras announcement on benefits will express "serious concerns". Will be published shortly.
— Eleni Varvitsiotis (@Elbarbie) December 15, 2016
Updated
Gold has hit its lowest level since February this morning, down 1% to just $1.134 per ounce.
That’s partly because the US dollar has rallied (so you need fewer dollars to buy the same amount of gold). But gold is also less attractive in an environment of higher inflation and interest rates, as it doesn’t yield anything.
Shares in two precious metals producers, Randgold and Fresnillo (the silver producer) are leading the fallers on the stock market:
FTSE 💯is down 0.14% at 6,939.23 as gold shares tank after the Fed raised rates & said more to come. Fresnillo -9%, Randgold -7%.🇬🇧#UKshares
— Andrew Duncan (@andrewsduncan1) December 15, 2016
TUC: JD Sports must tackle workplace conditions
JD Sports has become the latest retailer to face serious criticism over working practices, a year after its rival Sports Direct found itself in very hot water for paying staff less than the legal minimum.
An investigation by Channel 4 found evidence of staff at its Rochdale warehouse being badly treated, including a “3 strikes and you’re sacked“ policy, staff being threatened with dismissal for sitting down, and airport-style security checks and random searches.
Shares in JD Sports fell 7% yesterday as the news broke. And today, the company told the City it was opening an investigation.
TUC General Secretary Frances O’Grady says politicians need to do more to protect workers:
“These are degrading conditions to work in. The practices exposed at JD Sports show just how little value some companies attach to their staff.
“JD Sports’ initial response – denying the problems – doesn’t instil confidence.
“It’s increasingly clear that Sports Direct wasn’t just one bad apple, and that terrible working practices are taking place across the UK.
“The government needs to look seriously at how this sort of behaviour continues to take place in today’s Britain.
“Unions in workplaces can stamp out this sort of abuse. I would encourage anyone working in a warehouse like this to join a union and ensure that management cannot ignore their voice.”
French fund manager Etienne de Marsac has tweeted a handy graph, showing how UK and US government borrowing costs have jumped, thanks to the Fed (as flagged earlier).
#Fed #rates pic.twitter.com/Niazj3xUkC
— Etienne de MARSAC (@etiennedemarsac) December 15, 2016
Newsflash: UK retail sales are still growing , despite the ongoing uncertainty around Brexit.
Retail sales volumes grew by 0.2% in November, and were 5.9% higher than a year earlier. That’s down from 1.8% monthly growth in October.
Non-food sales were particularly strong; perhaps due to shoppers snapping up offers on Black Friday.
But there are also signs that the recent rises in petrol prices have forced some drivers to cut back.
The Office for National Statistics says:
In the latest month growth continues to be driven by a broad increase in all 4 categories, with all but petrol making significant contributions in November. Petrol provided its lowest contribution to growth since November 2014, which could reflect rising petrol prices.
The highest contribution to growth was non-food stores, contributing 2.1 percentage points to growth. This large increase in non-food volumes could be a result of consumers taking advantage of Black Friday deals on a number of non-food products.
Here’s some economist reaction:
UK retail sales still going strong, with volumes up 5.6%y/y in the 3 months to November. But we are coming to the end of falling shop prices pic.twitter.com/lBuc8cLBCl
— Rupert Seggins (@Rupert_Seggins) December 15, 2016
When the going gets tough, the British go shopping. Underlying strength will do well to persist into 2017 however
— World First (@World_First) December 15, 2016
Boom! Output across the eurozone’s factories has hit a 32-month high in December, according to the latest healthcheck from data firm Markit.
But firms also report that the cost of raw materials has jumped -- factory input prices are rising at their faster rate since May 2011.
Markit’s overall eurozone PMI was unchanged at 53.9, which shows steady growth, as the jump in manufacturing output was balanced by a small slowdown in services.
#Eurozone #PMI steady at 53.9 signals strong end to 2016. Price pressures at 5½ year high https://t.co/1QSHWA54lr pic.twitter.com/xNx0xTWpaa
— Chris Williamson (@WilliamsonChris) December 15, 2016
European stock markets are taking the Fed rate hike in their stride this morning - not surprising, really, as it was widely expected.
The German DAX and the French CAC have risen by around 0.4%, reflecting the drop in the euro vs the US dollar (good news for exporters).
And Britain’s FTSE 100 has dipped by 9 points, or 0.15%.
Financial shares are rallying, with Royal Bank of Scotland and Barclays both up 2.3%
Eric Lonergan, macro fund manager at M&G, says the market reaction has been “logical”.
The dollar has rallied, the yield curve has flattened and the equity of the large US money centre banks, which profit most from a rising Fed funds, are out-performing a weak stock market.
He argues that banks should benefit from higher interest rates:
Banks may well ease lending conditions in response to higher margins, and if corporate optimism feeds through to a tighter labour market and wage increases, final demand may prove as immune to higher interest rates as it did to ever lower global policy rates in recent years
Bad news from Wigan -- 100 jobs have been lost as a biscuit maker at the Northern town’s goes into administration.
Sky News’s Mark Kleinman has the story:
The maker of ‘Pink Panther’ wafers sold in British supermarkets will be the latest food producer to blame a Brexit crunch when it announces on Thursday that it has fallen into administration.
Sky News understands that the owner of Rivington Biscuits, which is based in Wigan, Lancashire, will blame the post-EU referendum slump in the value of sterling for drivng up input costs in recent months.
Almost 100 of the 125-strong workforce are understood to have been made redundant on Wednesday, less than a fortnight before Christmas.
The maker of 'Pink Panther' wafers is going into administration and will blame #Brexit, says @MarkKleinmanSky https://t.co/2aDfMjdBIQ
— Sky News (@SkyNews) December 15, 2016
Swiss central bank warns of 'arduous' Brexit talks
Newsflash from a chilly Bern: The Swiss central bank has left interest rates unchanged at their current record low of minus 0.75%.
The SNB says the global economy has continued to recover, but threats remain -- including Britain’s exit from the EU.
Here’s a flavour:
In the UK, the economic impact of the Brexit decision has so far proved less pronounced than originally feared.
The SNB expects the moderate pace of global growth to continue in 2017. The baseline scenario for the world economy is still subject to considerable risks, however. Structural problems in a number of advanced economies could negatively affect the outlook. Added to this are a multitude of political uncertainties which are particularly associated with the future course of economic policy in the US, upcoming elections in several countries in the euro area as well as the complex and arduous exit negotiations between the UK and the EU.
Full SNB Statement: https://t.co/kNPUrguOTZ
— RANsquawk (@RANsquawk) December 15, 2016
Government bonds are sliding
Government bonds are being pummelled in early trading - as they suffer from the Federal Reserve’s decisions.
With prices sliding, the interest rate on UK 10-year gilts has jumped to 1.52%, up from 1.38% yesterday. That’s the highest yield since May, before the Brexit vote.
Other government bonds are also being hit - the yield on 10-year US Treasuries (America’s debt) has jumped to 2.61%, from 2.51%.
French, Italian and Spanish bonds are also weakening in value (prices fall when yields rise), as traders pull money out of bonds.
Global bond rout deepens w/ 10y French yields jump by >10bps. pic.twitter.com/HRBx6RRg8K
— Holger Zschaepitz (@Schuldensuehner) December 15, 2016
With the Fed predicting faster rate hikes next year, investors are demanding a higher rate of return for holding government bonds.
Marc Ostwald of ADM Investor Services says:
As was perhaps to be expected, markets took some umbrage at the dot plot’s implication of one additional rate hike in 2017.
Reuters’ Jamie McGeever shows how the US dollar has strengthened sharply over the last two years:
Dollar hits a 14-year high after US rate hike, +30% since 2014. pic.twitter.com/Hy9ZELJ8RQ
— Jamie McGeever (@ReutersJamie) December 15, 2016
The dollar rally has hit shares across emerging markets this morning.
Traders are bracing for a surge of capital out of developing countries and back into US assets, to benefit from higher interest rates. So that’s driven most Asian markets into the red:
Updated
Dollar surges thanks to hawkish Fed
The US dollar has surged to a 14-year high against other currencies this morning, after the Federal Reserve raised American interest rates last night.
In volatile trading, the dollar index (the broad measure of the currency’s strength) hit its highest level since 2003.
It hit a record high against the Turkish lira, an eight year high against the Chinese yuan, and a 20-month high against the euro (which has slid back to $1.0478).
The surge came after the Fed predicted it would raise interest rates three times in 2017, up from the two hikes predicted in September.
And with Donald Trump promising huge spending on infrastructure once he becomes president, investors are concluding that the Fed may have to tighten monetary policy faster than expected to rein in inflation.
Stephen Innes, senior trader at Oanda in Singapore, said in a note that Fed chair Yellen has surprised the markets by not talking a softer tone.
“This is flat out hawkish, and the US dollar is reacting accordingly,”
“I thought we would be calling the Yellen bluff this morning, as the market had expected at most a subtle shift in Fed language.
“However, the Fed’s forward guidance is in reaction to Trumpflation as Dr Yellen did little to quell the markets’ pent up the view that both growth and inflation will accelerate in 2017.”
More here:
However..... there are reasons to be cautious. The Fed may be expecting three rate hikes in 2017, but that certainly doesn’t mean it will definitely happen.
Philip Shaw of Investec points out that policymakers had expected four rate hikes this year - and only delivered one, last night.
Markets were jolted by the FOMC moving its dot plot showing 3 hikes, from 2, in 2017. A year ago year it predicted 4 in 2016 –it did 1.#Fed pic.twitter.com/sR3LbbqNtP
— Philip Shaw (@philipshaw8) December 15, 2016
(each dot shows where one Fed policymaker expects US interest rates to be)
Updated
The agenda: Bank of England interest rate decision
Good morning, and welcome to our rolling coverage of the world economy, the financial markets, the eurozone and business.
Get out the tinsel and put on the party hats, because Britain’s final central bank meeting of the year is upon us.
At noon UK time, the Bank of England will announce its decision on monetary policy, as it continues its balancing act since the Brexit vote.
The City expect the BoE to leave interest rates on hold today, at their current record low of 0.25%. But will it maintain its ‘neutral bias’ - meaning the next move in rates could be up or down? And will any policymakers split from the pack, or will it be a 9-nil vote?
The Bank has a lot to think about right now, with inflation jumping to 1.2% in November as the weak pound drives import prices up.
Yesterday’s labour force data is also a concern, with employment falling for the first time since the EU referendum.
So governor Mark Carney and colleagues need to tread cautiously, especially with Britain facing a ‘lost decade’:
Also coming up today....
The Swiss and Norwegian central banks are also announcing their decisions on monetary policy this morning.
On the economic front, we get new ‘flash’ estimates of the eurozone manufacturing and service sectors from Markit at 9am, plus US inflation and manufacturing reports this afternoon.
Highlights include SNB, Norges Bank, BoE rate decisions, US CPI, Philadelphia Mfg Index, NY Empire and Weekly Jobs
— RANsquawk (@RANsquawk) December 15, 2016
We’ll also keep tracking Greece, where relations between Athens, European officials and the International Monetary Fund are becoming more strained by the day.
As we covered yesterday, Europe’s bailout fund froze plans for Greek debt relief after prime minister Alexis Tsipras announced new help for poorer pensioners.
Tsipras won’t be cowed, though. He’s asking parliament to vote on giving 1.6 million pensioners a Christmas bonus of between €300 and €800, and whether to suspend a planned increase in sales tax for Aegean islands which have been hit by the migrant crisis.
Greek MPs vote today on Tsipras's fiscal 'xmas gifts'. Another escalation, after y'days rebuke by €group. https://t.co/Jq1f8kHIiv via @WSJ
— Marcus Walker (@MMQWalker) December 15, 2016
We’ll be tracking all the main events through the day.....