Graeme Wearden 

UK growth following Brexit vote revised up; Deutche and Credit Suisse fined billions – as it happened

A bumper load of bank news, as Deutsche and Credit Suisse settle with DoJ, and the Italian cabinet agrees to rescue MPS
  
  

Oxford Street Christmas Lights, London, Britain - 12 Nov 2013Mandatory Credit: Photo by Nils Jorgensen/REX (3366083a) Oxford Street Christmas Lights and Xmas Decorations Oxford Street Christmas Lights, London, Britain - 12 Nov 2013
Latest GDP figures provide some pre-Christmas cheer, despite widening trade gap Photograph: Nils Jorgensen/REX

Closing summary - and festive best wishes

With the markets closed, City traders are now scarpering to their homes (or the shops!) to begin the Christmas break. So in that spirit, I’m going to wrap up now.

I hope you all have an excellent Christmas break. We’ll be back next week for the final push towards 2017.

Here’s a quick summary:

Britain’s economy has continued to defy the doubters, with growth revised up to 0.6% in the three months after the EU referendum.

And with growth earlier in the year revised down, there’s no sign of a Brexit slump.

However, the country’s current account deficit has worsened, with exports dropping during the quarter.

Economists fear that the economy is still too reliant on domestic demand, as consumer spending could tail off in 2017 when inflation takes a bigger bite out of wages.

Over in Italy, the prime minister has confirmed that the country’s weakest banks will be strengthened with state capital, starting with Monte dei Paschi – whose efforts to bolster its own reserves failed this week.

Paolo Gentiloni told reporters that:

“Today marks an important day for Monte dei Paschi, a day that sees it turn a corner and able to reassure its depositors.”

Two European banks, Deutsche Bank and Credit Suisse, are paying more than $12bn to settle charges that they mis-sold mortgage-backed securities in the run-up to the 2008 crisis.

But Barclays is fighting the US Department of Justice, denying that it is guilty of ‘irresponsible and dishonest’ conduct.

Merry Christmas!

Updated

The London stock market has just closed for the Christmas break, after a very dull session.

The blue-chip FTSE 100 index gained a mere 4 points to finish at 7,068. That’s a fairly muted reaction to the news that Britain’s economy performed better that expected in the last quarter, and that the Italian banking crisis is being resolved.

The markets seem to have run out of energy, after a wild year.

Joshua Mahony of IG says:

The lack of volumes associated with the holiday season can often bring the potential for significant volatility, yet in fact we have seen quite the opposite with the post-Trump romp largely brushed aside.

With US markets having hit new all-time highs and European markets also enjoying a substantial rally over the past month, there is little complain about this year. However, with the US economy is rude health, the US stock markets reaching new territory, Donald Trump will have a tough time trying to improve on the current state of play.

ECB: Wealth inequality up since eurozone crisis

Looking away from the UK economy, the European Central Bank has reported that wealth inequality across the eurozone has risen since the eurozone crisis began.

A new ECB survey has found that average net wealth across the euro area shrank by 10% between 2010 and 2014, to €223,300. This is primarily due to a sharp fall in house prices in many countries, as austerity gripped the euro area.

Importantly, the median household wealth (what a typical family owns), was just €104,100, less than half the mean average of €223k. That’s because so much wealth is held by the richest people.

Households needed to own almost €500,000 to squeeze into the top 10%.

Wealth slumped particularly sharply in Greece and Cyprus, which both entered bailout programme, while net wealth in Germany rose by 10%.

And the ECB flags up that wealth inequality appears to have increased slightly.

The Gini coefficient, a frequently used indicator of overall wealth inequality, edged up to 68.5 percent from 68.0, which is within the margin of measurement error. A value of 0 corresponds to complete equality, while 100 percent reflects maximum inequality - one household owning all wealth.

This could bolster criticism of the ECB’s ultra-loose monetary policy, which has pumped up the value of financial assets owned by richer Europeans. But the Bank argues that without its action, unemployment would be higher and growth lower.

Updated

Martin Beck, senior economic advisor to the EY ITEM Club, is concerned that UK households will feel a squeeze next year, which could hold back growth.

Here’s his comment on today’s growth figures:

“Q3’s Quarterly National Accounts brought some unexpected pre-Christmas cheer with Q3 GDP growth revised up from 0.5% to 0.6%.

“Consumer spending remained the key driver of growth in Q3, but the first cut of the income data raised further question marks about how long this can continue. Real household income dropped sharply in Q3, taking the annual growth rate to just 0.3%, the weakest outturn for two years.

With high inflation set to weigh further on spending power next year, the consumer is surely set to falter soon.

If you dig into the meat of today’s GDP report, there are reasons to worry -- even though the UK’s growth rate was revised up to a punchy 0.6%.

Household disposable income, for example, dropped by 0.6% during the quarter; the biggest drop in almost three years. And the widening current account deficit (see 10.10am) is another concern.

Richard de Meo, managing director of Foenix Partners, says the report shows a ‘diverging’ economy:

Very strong performance in the services sector, the sharpest rise in employee compensation in 3 years and outperformance in construction and industrial production are then firmly offset by very weak figures in household disposable income, continuing declines in business investment and a widening of the current account deficit.

The diverging performance of multiple sectors of the economy simply mirrors the uncertainty that Brexit prospects are imposing on the UK outlook, with pockets of robust growth continuing to be frustrated by much bigger questions relating to Britain’s future.

Treasury: Challenges ahead

The UK government has warned that Britain’s economy faces challenges, despite growing faster than thought in the last quarter.

A Treasury spokesperson doesn’t actually mention the Brexit negotiations, but I think we know what they’re hinting at. Here’s the official response:

“The fundamentals of the UK economy are strong, but there remain challenges ahead.

The Chancellor set out, in the Autumn Statement, his plan to support a resilient economy that works for everyone by driving productivity and supporting working people, while maintaining fiscal discipline.”

Updated

Today’s report into the UK economy has good news for workers; compensation paid to employees rose by 4.5% in Q3. That’s the biggest rise since 2013, suggesting robust pay growth over the summer.

But..... business investment only rose by 0.4% in the quarter (revised down from 0.9%), which means it was 2.2% LOWER than a year earlier.

That indicates that firms did rein in their spending over the summer, after the Brexit vote.

Britain's current account deficit has widened

Worryingly, Britain’s current-account deficit has widened in the last quarter, as the country continues to import much more than it exports.

The difference between money flowing into the UK, and out, jumped to £25.5bn in July-September.

That’s the equivalent of 5.2% of the entire economic output this year, close to the record deficit recorded in 2013.

This deterioration is mainly due to weaker trade -- Britain’s trade deficit jumped from £11bn in Q2 to £16.7bn in Q3, according to the ONS.

Total UK exports decreased by 2.6% in the July-September quarter, while imports increased by 1.4%.

That’s despite the slump in the pound, which is meant to help exporters by making goods more competitively priced.

The ONS says:

Exports of goods decreased by 5.1% in Quarter 3 2016, due mainly to a decrease in exports of aircraft, chemicals and unspecified goods.

Updated

It’s not all good news, though - the ONS has revised down its estimate of UK growth in January-March to +0.3%, from +0.4%.

Growth in the second quarter of 2016 has also been trimmed, from 0.7% to 0.6%.

So, the UK economy grew just as fast in the three months after the EU referendum than in the three months after it.

But overall, the economy is a little smaller than we thought.

Updated

UK growth rate revised up to +0.6%

NEWSFLASH: The UK economy grew faster than we thought in the three months after the Brexit referendum.

The Office for National Statistics has just revised up its estimate for UK GDP in the third quarter of 2016.

It now reckons that the British economy expanded by 0.6%, not the 0.5% previously reported. That’s a pretty decent rate of growth, especially given the uncertainty created by the EU referendum.

It’s because the ONS has revised up service sector growth (the largest part of the UK economy) in the last three months to 1.0%, from 08%.

And the City can take the credit, with output from the “business services and finance industries” growing faster than expected.

Darren Morgan, Head of GDP, says:

“Robust consumer demand continued to help the UK economy grow steadily in the third quarter of 2016. Growth was slightly stronger than first thought, though, due to greater output in the financial sector.”

The ONS also says that industrial production only contracted by 0.4%, not 0.5%, while construction sector output has been revised from -1.1% to -0.8%.

More to follow!

Updated

Today’s flurry of banking news has spared us from the usual pre-Christmas slump.

Mike van Dulken of Accendo Markets explains what you need to know:

Firstly, overnight news that Monte dei Paschi is set to receive state aid as part of a €20bn package to keep the bank and troubled peers afloat is something of a relief, even if it does involve taxpayer funds and represents a big déjà vu, having already been rescued in recent years. It allows savers to have a quieter break following an eventful week that saw the bank struggle and ultimately fail to raise funds privately. Now it’s a question of what price institutional bondholders have to pay and what sort of compensation retail investors will be offered to ensure the bailout follows new EU rules preventing the bill for state aid being unfairly pinned on taxpayers and that the deal is more politically palatable. It also remains to be seen how long the process will take. Talk yesterday of it taking several months to complete is a worryingly long time, allowing unhappy investors to brood and savers take flight, potentially making the current situation even worse. Veloce!

News from the US overnight makes for a mixed bag with continental behemoths Deutsche Bank and Credit Suisse settling with the Department of Justice (DoJ) for pre-crisis mis-selling of mortgage backed securities (MBS). The former settled for $7bn (only half payable in cash) which is just half the $14bn challenge that shook markets this summer, something considered to be US retaliation for the EU’s call on Apple to repay Ireland €13bn in back taxes. Credit Suisse settling for $5bn for similar allegations makes it two out of three.

However a pre-Christmas hat-trick eludes the DoJ with UK giant Barclays refusing to give in, viewing claims against it as disproportionate to misdemeanours committed. Considering itself liable for just $1bn, it was happy to settle for $2bn, however, talks have broken down. The DoJ clearly wants more.

Deutsche bank shares +3.7% suggests relief at a good result and the affair being closed. Credit Suisse shares flat implies an acceptable deal. Barclays -0.3% indicates some uncertainty about what it eventually ends up paying. However there is no panic. If anything, the standout performer this morning is the bank that has yet to be mentioned. The DoJ wants to fine Royal Bank of Scotland $12bn for its own MBS mis-selling. Its shares are +1.8% on a combination of optimism that it too could settle for half, like Deutsche, although gains may be capped by the prospect of the DoJ taking a dislike to Barclays pushing its luck and decides to make life difficult for the UK

Experts: Italy should have acted years ago

City experts are relieved that Italy has finally taken the plunge and agreed to provide €20bn in emergency liquidity guarantees and capital injections for its banks.

There’s also some exasperation that Rome didn’t do this years ago (Britain, for example, pumped money into its financial sector back in 2008).

Jacopo Ceccatelli, head of Marzotto SIM SpA, a Milan-based broker-dealer, told Bloomberg

“Overall it’s good news; finally we are heading toward a solution,”

“Italy is doing now what other countries have done many years ago to sustain their banking system.”

Francesco Confuorti, chief executive officer of Milan’s Advantage Financial,

“A nationalization should have been done five years ago.

“The bank lost time, money and credibility seeking to keep the patient on life support when he was in an irreversible coma.”

More here:

Barclays is one of the biggest fallers on the FSTE 100 this morning, shedding 0.8%, after being accused of ‘irresponsible and dishonest’ practices by the DoJ last night.

Unlike many of its rivals, including Deutsche and Credit Suisse, Barclays is fighting charges of mis-selling mortgage backed securities.

It has issued a statement to the City, saying:

Barclays rejects the claims made in the Complaint. Barclays considers that the claims made in the Complaint are disconnected from the facts. Barclays will vigorously defend the Complaint and intends to seek its dismissal at the earliest opportunity.

Shares in Italy banks have jumped by 1.2%, on relief that the Rome government has pledged to strengthen the sector with state help, starting with Monte dei Paschi.

Now this is interesting... shares in Royal Bank of Scotland have jumped by 2% at the start of trading in London.

RBS is still locked in negotiations with the DoJ over its role in the mortgage-backed securities scandal (which should be familiar to anyone whose seen or read The Big Short, for example).

Investors will be concluding that RBS may not be fined as much as feared, given Deutsche Bank’s success in haggling the DoJ down from $14bn to $7bn.

Deutsche Bank shares jump by 4%

Shares in Deutsche Bank have jumped by over 4% at the start of trading in Frankfurt, to €18.50.

That confirms that the $7bn settlement agreed with the DoJ for mis-selling toxic securities is much less than investors had feared.

Three months ago, Deutsche’s shares plunged below €10, the lowest in decades, after news broke that the DoJ was demanding $14bn.

Analyst Dan Davies reckons that leak may have rebounded on the US authorities, who were criticised for taking too tough a line over the scandal.

Italian PM: Monte dei Paschi rescue should reassure savers

The bailout of Monte dei Paschi is an “important day” for the bank, says Italy’s new prime minister.

After approving the decree that will pave the way to prop up the banking sector, Paolo Gentiloni told reporters that

“Today marks an important day for Monte dei Paschi, a day that sees it turn a corner and able to reassure its depositors.”

Updated

Deutsche Bank’s British CEO, John Cryan, will surely be pleased to have finally settled with the US authorities - and for roughly half the $14bn bill he faced at one stage.

Chris Wheeler, analyst at Atlantic securities told the Today programme that:

I think the $14bn was always posturing position by the DoJ....

The CEO [John Cryan], a very organised individual, can say that box is now ticked.

Today’s flurry of fines, settlements and bailout deals are “good news” for the European banking sector, says Naeem Aslam, analyst at Think Markets.

He points out that Deutche’s Bank’s lengthy negotiations with the DoJ had worried the City.

Credit Suisse resolved its issue with Department of Justice over mis-selling of mortgage securities. Similarly, Deutsche Bank has also struck a deal with the Department of Justice in relation to their mortgage-backed securities issue. Deutsche bank’s agreement is less than what the bank feared and this is music to investor’s ears.

The amount of $14 billion which was initially expected by Deutsche could have put the bank under a lot of strain. Its stocks plummeted as the bank waited for a result, as traders were not confident about the bank’s ability to carve out a deal. Under the agreement with the DOJ, the total cost will be $7.2 billion. This figure consists of $3.1 billion in penalty fees and $4.1 billion which the bank needs to refund to its consumers.

Italian market regulators have suspended trading in Monte dei Paschi’s shares and bonds, following the news that it will be bailed out by the state.

The Italian government is likely to end up owning a large stake in MPS, while some bondholders will be ‘bailed in’ to help fund the rescue deal.

The agenda: Bank news bonanza

Good morning.

Christmas has come early for bank watchers, with a packed stocking full of crucial developments on the final day before the festive break.

Overnight, the Italian government has given its approval for a state bailout of troubled Monte dei Paschi, after the bank failed to raise funds from private investors.

Paolo Gentiloni, Italy’s new prime minister, announced in the early hours of Friday that his cabinet had agreed to the rescue and would be dipping into a €20bn fund that had already been approved by the parliament earlier this week in the event that MPS needed to be saved.

Here’s the full story:

In another dramatic, and long-awaited development, Deutsche Bank has finally agreed a $7.2bn settlement with the US Department of Justice for misselling mortgage-backed securities in the run-up to the 2008 crisis.

The German lender will pay a $3.1bn civil penalty and also provide $4.1bn in compensation to consumers.

It’s much less than the $14bn which the DoJ had originally proposed, and which had raised fears over Deutsche’s financial strength.

Swiss bank Credit Suisse has also settled with the DoJ; it will pay a $2.48bn penalty plus handing back $2.8bn to consumers.

Late last night it emerged that the DoJ is also taking Barclays to court, after the UK lender denied similar charges of bundling up home loans and selling them on.

City editor Jill Treanor explains:

The US department of justice has accused Barclays of jeopardising the financial position of millions of American homeowners over a decade-old mortgage bond mis-selling scandal.

The DoJ is now taking the bank to court, in what was thought to be the first time an institution had failed to reached a settlement with the US authorities over the sale of residential mortgage-backed securities (RMBS) in the run-up to the banking crisis. Responding to the news on Thursday night, Barclays said it would fight the case.

Loretta Lynch, the US attorney general, said: “Financial institutions like Barclays occupy a position of vital public trust. Ordinary Americans depend on their assurances of transparency and legitimacy, and entrust these banks with their valuable savings....

As alleged in this complaint, Barclays jeopardised billions of dollars of wealth through practices that were plainly irresponsible and dishonest. With this filing, we are sending a clear message that the department of justice will not tolerate the defrauding of investors and the American people.”

I’ll be tracking all the development and reaction, as the City heads into its final trading session before Christmas (trading ends at lunchtime, hurrah!).

At 9.30am we get a new estimate of UK GDP in the third quarter, which will give more details of how the economy performed in the three months after the Brexit vote. It’ll probably confirm that the economy expanded by 0.5% in the quarter.

Updated

 

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