Carney has now finished so here are some of the key points.
In the wake of criticisms from various politicians, he said investors would want a “risk premium” to buy UK assets if the Bank’s independence was questioned. But markets should not expect this to happen. It was up to the government to set a target for price stability which the Bank would then decide how to reach.
On his own future, he said it would be a personal decision as to when he would step down from the Bank and not related to politics.
Sterling’s recent slump had less to do with monetary policy, he said, and more to do with the announcement of the timetable for Article 50 and the market’s perception of how discussions on Brexit would unfold.
He said there were various contingency plans in place for banks to leave London if they saw fit.
On QE he expressed sympathy for savers who have been hit by the programme, but said the Bank was not slavishly relying on QE.
He defended the Bank’s purchase of corporate bonds, including McDonald’s.
On negative rates, he said there was something unnatural and a confidence effect.
Meanwhile the pound has recovered some ground after its earlier sudden slump, which was blamed variously on the strong dollar, comments from chancellor Philip Hammond suggesting more QE and nervousness ahead of Carney’s appearance at the House of Lords.
It is now down 0.3% at $1.2195 after falling as low as $1.2084 - its worst level since the flash crash earlier this month. Its recovery is partly due to Carney’s measured performance and his attempts to reassure on QE, his own future, and worries over the Bank’s independence.
With the slight recovery in the pound, the FTSE 100 has lost much of its earlier gains but still ended up 0.45% at 7017.64.
On that note, it’s time to close for the evening. Thanks for all your comments, and we’ll be back tomorrow.
Over to Greece, and the White House has confirmed that president Barack Obama will be visiting the country in November in what officials hope will be the biggest push yet to secure debt relief for the country. Our correspondent Helena Smith reports.
Barely days after the race for the White House, the outgoing president will visit Athens on November 15 in what was described as a tour aimed at reaffirming support “for economic reforms that reduce inequality.”
The US president has voiced barely disguised frustration with austerity policies he has blamed for economic stagnation and slow growth in Europe. Greek officials in the leftist-led government are hoping Obama will push for debt forgiveness when he goes on to hold talks with the German chancellor Angela Merkel in Berlin so that the Greek economy, currently locked in its worst slump in modern times, can be put on the path to recovery.
The IMF, like Washington, both believe that with a debt load in excess of €300bn the Greek economy is unsustainable. Prime minister Alexis Tsipras has recently racheted up the rhetoric, saying a debt deal should be wrapped up by December when Athens completes a second review of the economy with international inspectors representing its bailout creditors at the EU and IMF. His appeals were rebuffed by both Merkel and her French counterpart when he met them on the sidelines of last week’s EU summit in Brussels. Berlin, the main provider of bailout funds to date, has argued that Greece’s problen is not one of debt but competitiveness.
Still with Brexit, and Ireland is making a pitch to provide a home for a key regultor. Jill Treanor writes:
It is not so long ago that European Banking Authority moved to new offices in London’s Canary Wharf. But the vote for Brexit means the regulator which oversees banks in the remaining 27 countries of the EU is likely to need a new home. Ireland has now made a formal pitch to take on the regulator, best known for conducting its stress tests on banks. Michael Noonan, minister of finance said: “While the UK continues to be a full member of the EU until the negotiations for their exit have been completed, preparations must be made for eventualities such as the relocation of certain European agencies such as the European Banking Authority. Ireland has a significant financial services sector, efficient transport links to other European capitals and the capacity to absorb the European Banking Authority’s re-location to Ireland. Our interest in hosting the EBA demonstrates the continued importance Ireland places in well regulated financial services. As a country with experience in providing links to banks and companies in the UK market, Ireland provides an ideal new home for the staff of the EBA.”
Ireland has made no secret of its ambitions to take any exiles from London’s financial services sector.
Lord Hollick ends by saying a question has been sent in during the proceedings by a pensioner who wants to know what he should invest his savings in.
Carney replies that when he can have the answer sent in, he will give a reply.
And with that, it’s over.
Updated
Question: Why are you opposed to negative interest rates? Do you feel comfortable with size of derivatives on bank bal sheets
Carney says on negative rates, uncomfortable with effect on bank balance sheets and lending possibly being tempered or reversed. In UK the building societies are an important part of system and they don’t have alternative supply of finance.
On top of that, there is something unnatural to negative rates to some people and there is a confidence effect.
In terms of derivatives, reforms put in place have substantially reduced risks.
Updated
Question: If the MPC had known about fall in sterling in August would they have done same stimulus measures ? When does depreciation start becoming serious?
Carney says committee always takes into account exchange rate movements and the reasons, and its effect on inflation.
Prior to referendum, the way we talked remained most appropriate - we have to balance supply, demand and exchange rate.
Since timing of Article 50 became clear, sterling has been influence by market perceptions of [future with EU].
If exchange rate has depreciated and UK supply capacity is weakened by Brexit, it will push up inflation.
Updated
Question: What is concerning central bankers at the moment other than Brexit?
Carney says the balance of monetary, fiscal and structural policy, and that monetary policy has been overburdened. Fair bit of time needs to be spent on that.
In terms of biggest risk, China. It is going through a series of transitions, manufacturing to services, from bank based lending to market based finance, flexibility of exchange rate. They are all happening simultaneously. Chinese authorities have done an exemplary job in managing this, but there are challenges.
In recent years the pace of growth has been faster than the speed limit, effectively a product of debt through shadow banking sector. Challenge is to sustainably and safely decelerate the rate of growth.
Question: when will the recent fall in sterling affect inflation?
Carney says the recent uptick in inflation is the product of a few factors but not, net, sterling. Mainly energy prices and clothing prices.
Relatively quickly we will see the effects of the sterling depreciation. By the spring [inflation will be] 1.5% to 1.8% annualised with an important contribution [from currency].
We do not have a target for the exchange rate. But it is a factor which influences the stance of monetary policy, and will take into account over next week as we make our policy decision.
Question: Given government can borrow at low rates and investing, shouldn’t they take advantage of that?
Carney says have to be careful in fiscal policy about what is temporary and what is baked in system. I agree, given interest rate, relative return on a project doesn’t have to be that high when there is tax revenues and an asset alongside it. But those decisions are decisions of the government.
Updated
Question: Is monetary policy now too loose and fiscal policy too tight?
Carney says adjusting fiscal policy is much slower than adjusting monetary policy, it needs budget, legislation.
So there is a need to understand the fiscal policy of the government and take it into account. Appropriate for chancellor and governor to discuss how the economy is and what should be done.
Away from Carney and back to the pound’s slide. Neil Wilson, markets analyst at ETX Capital said:
There is no clear reason for the dip but once the run on the pound starts these days it’s hard to find buyers at any natural or obvious levels...It just goes to show how bearish the sentiment is around the pound at the moment. It doesn’t take a lot to send sterling south at the moment.
Of course it’s good news for all those dollar earners on the FTSE 100, which rallied strongly on the pound’s fall before a big bought of profit taking around 15:20-30 pared the day’s gains.
Question: Is there too much uncertainty now for forward guidance to be useful?
Carney says it is useful in certain circumstances, in the exit from unconventional policy.
Lamont: Why are you now buying corporate bonds?
Carney says this provides a different channel of stimulus. It is more powerful pound for pound than QE. We are buying neutrally, companies important to UK economy.
[Lamot: McDonald’s?] Yes, it is part of the UK economy, providing jobs.
It encourages issuance in that market, also frees up bank balance sheets to lend to smaller businesses and households.
Carney - cannot conceive Chancellor would refuse Bank's QE moves
Lamont: QE has been described as a mixture of fiscal and monetary policy. So independence of central banks has already gone. If Treasury has to approve each tranche of QE, then independence is surely compromised?
Carney says the decision is made by the MPC, the Treasury makes decision on Bank balance sheet independently. I have to explain to chancellor the rationale, and he or she will want to be satisfied on that before putting balance sheet forward. Can’t conceive of circumstance where chancellor would not provide that.
Updated
We would not slavishly rely on QE - Carney
Question from Lord Lamont: Back to QE, how long will it go on. Is it still effective. The distortions are becoming larger, especially in bond market. Companies are cutting dividend to fund pension liabilities. My fear, this will only end in tears.
Carney says he does not share that view.
The package in August had four elements, part of the reason was to provided stimulus but also to show we would not slavishly rely on QE.
After the first QE programme, they tend to have less of an influence on asset prices. The August announcement has as large an impact as any, [because it was part of a package].
On side effects, we are mindful of side effects. We did look at impacts on pension funds, insurance companies, margins and profitablity of banks and building societies, to satisfy ourselves sum of side effects did not outweigh positives. Case was strong so we pursued it.
On pension funds, the challenge is as much due to a lag in equity performance compared to yields elsewhere. So its a broader problem.
{Lamont: QE helping that problem}
Carney says its whether you think QE is responsible for low rates. [He clearly doesn’t]
The concerns about risks in the global environment are quite elevated.
Updated
Question: is there anything to be done to make sure the City remains the pre-eminent financial centre post-Brexit?
We start from a position where it is Europe’s financial centre.
[On euro clearing moving from London] there is no need for currency clearing to take place in the currency’s jurisdiction. It is broader discussion in the political realm.
From our point of view, we need to retain world class supervision and regulation. We need to ensure - issue for government and private sector - that non-euro activity continues to grow in London.
We need to come to some sort of broader agreement on aspects of wholesale finance.
Yes some business would migrate, but City will grow other business from elsewhere.
Carney says he expects the EU to give serious consideration to equivalence of UK financial regulation.
Carney says we do not want to have our hands tied to import ad infinitum financial rules made elsewhere.
Updated
The pound has recovered some ground during the course of Carney’s appearance so far. Having fallen as low as $1.2084 earlier, and recovering to $1.2121 as he began, it is now at $1.2135, still down 0.7% on the day.
Question: is BBA irresponsible suggesting banks are ready to leave imminently?
There is much uncertainty, and in an environment where profitability is stretched. Some may take decisions earlier than others.
There are discussions [to be held with the EU], it would be precipitate to make decisions [before then].
Question: any evidence banks are planning to relocate out of London?
Carney says as supervisor of banks, we are aware of contingency plans at various stages of readyness. Some would be in a position to adjust activities within the next year if they saw fit.
Question: US rates are expected to rise, does that not depress the pound. The Bank has also failed to meet its inflation target.
Carney says there were four elements to August’s package, sterling barely moved, the market understood what we were doing.
When does sterling move, asks Carney. When it becomes clear on the timing of Article 50 and the market’s perception on the relationship between UK and EU. It’s a bit early to determine that. PM says she will get best deal, there have been no discussions.
But the market’s perception influences a perception of the supply situation of the econmy. That perception may well be mistaken.
We have to take account of where sterling is and how persistent it will be.
The 6.5% movement in currency since the Conservative party conference has largely been driven by a single factor, not monetary policy.
As for US, there has been an increased perception that Fed will raise rates by the end of the year. That has contributed to generalised dollar strength.
But with sterling it is more the perception of that fundamental factor.
[On the inflation target] in terms of the undershoot, the explanation was huge moves in oil and commodity prices.
The judgement the MPC has to make, we see inflation rising above target in year’s 2 and 3, due to depreciation of sterling in the first half of this year, so our judgement is how quickly we return inflation to target.
Should we raise rates in August and get it to 2%, at the cost of jobs and income in the economy. Or is it wiser to look through that exchange rate move and help economy adjust. In the view of every member, it was the right course of action to provide stimulus at that point.
Why cut interest rates after Brexit when suggested not beforehand?
Carney says monetary policy would depend on supply, demand and the exchange rate. The balance of those forces which effect the path of policy.
The MPC decision is not automatic. There were scenarios when.. appropriate response would have been to tighten.
But in fact the balance was consistent with the Bank supplying more stimulus to support the economy during a period of adjustment.
That stimulus has its limits. The balance can shift. We don’t target exchange rate, we target inflation..but we are not indifferent.
Decision whether to stay at Bank entirely personal - Carney
Question. There has been talk about Carney leaving. What are the factors for Carney staying or going?
Carney says he needs time to reflect, it’s an entirely personal decision. No one should read into it anything about government policy, past, present, intentional.
Updated
Baroness Wheatcroft question: On the prime minister’s comments, she said monetary policy was an effective emergency measure and a change has to come. Does that mean monetary policy?
Carney says he does not think she meant a change in monetary policy.
Question: how long will it take to get there (normal interest rates etc)?
The framework is there, we fully understand if not welcome criticism of how we’re doing our job to get to inflation target. With time as the government prosecutes its discussions with EU, uncertainties will reduce.
There are broader forces in global economy which may take longer to dissipate.
Carney says it is frustrating to have interest rates so low for so long.
He says he has sympathy with savers, but says the Bank’s focus is on its remit to get inflation where it needs to be.
Change inflation target to help savers?
Carney says to target a specific group is not consistent with helping widest range of people and supporting whole economy.
Lord Hollick, the chair, asks about the prime minister’s concerns about the effect of QE and those who have lost out, and what the Bank could do to help.
Carney says since QE, jobs have been created, GDP has grown. That is not due to QE, but the stance has helped the UK economy during a difficult period.
Different groups will benefit in different ways. Between 2009 and 2016, most have benefited, although some more than others.
We do recognise those who rely on savings have seen lower returns.
Carney says the Bank’s independence has stood the test of time.
If it was called into question he would expect to see a risk premium on UK assets, particularly the currency, gilts and inflation expectations.
He said markets should have no reason to expect that [risk premium]. There is not a debate in parliament to change remit.
If the bank’s goal or remit was adjusted, the MPC would discharge that remit.
He said comments by individual politicians on policy would have no effect on how it discharges its responsibility.
Updated
Mark Carney is now beginning his testimony and is talking about monetary policy.
He says monetary policy has been overburdened, it is the principal if not sole vehicle to provide stimulus to the UK. He welcomes the government is signalling a resetting of the balance between monetary, fiscal and structural policy.
Sterling today pic.twitter.com/jxQHSrmnQk
— World First (@World_First) October 25, 2016
Sterling continues to fall ahead of Mark Carney’s testimony shortly.
It has fallen as low as $1.2082, its lowest since the flash crash earlier this month, and while the strength of the dollar and the uncertainty about what Carney will say are factors, comments from chancellor Philip Hammond earlier may also be helping to push sterling lower. Connor Campbell, financial analyst at Spreadex, said:
Sterling’s renewed slide seems to have stemmed from comments made by Philip Hammond, who not only warned that EU leaders may focus on political rather than economic issues when discussing the Brexit, but also that, when asked about the possibility of more QE, pointed out that no quantitative easing request has ever been rejected. This seems to have spooked the pound, which had actually been on a decent run of form in the past few trading sessions, and that is before Mark Carney gives his latest Brexit update in front of the House of Lords later today.
The return of the pound’s perilous trading was good news for the FTSE. The UK index had been lacking a certain spark in the last few days; now it finds itself 50 points higher, firmly above 7000 and not too far away from its all-time peak.
The weak US consumer confidence figures could pose a problem for Federal Reserve chair Janet Yellen. Mike Read, co-founder of trading network Pelican, said:
Consumers in the US could be forgiven for harbouring slight trepidations about the future, amid a controversial presidential campaign and global economic uncertainty, but Fed Chair Janet Yellen will be concerned to see the first signs of this mounting pessimism taking effect.
Observers have long earmarked December as when the Fed will raise rates again, but 2016 has been a year of surprises and many traders may now be getting cold feet at the prospect of Yellen holding off until the new year.
Paul Sirani, Chief Market Analyst at Xtrade, still thinks a December rise is on the cards:
Consumer confidence rose in September to its highest level in nine years, but that positivity has proven short-lived for Fed Chair Janet Yellen following a worse than expected October reading.
Although the U.S. economy is performing well on the whole, Yellen has been singled out for criticism by presidential candidate Donald Trump, who claims she is keeping interest rates low for political reasons.
And it seems highly unlikely that she will pull the trigger before the Presidential race in November, with a December rise more likely.
US consumer confidence declines
The US presidential election has dented consumer confidence, according to a new survey.
The University of Michigan index of consumer sentiment fell by 3.6% month on month to 87.9. Year on year the fall was 2.3%. This was the lowest level since last September and the second lowest in the past two years. The survey’s chief economist Richard Curtin said:
It is likely that the uncertainty surrounding the presidential election had a negative impact, especially among lower income consumers, and without that added uncertainty, the confidence measures may not have weakened. Prospects for renewed gains, other than a relief rally following the election results, would require somewhat larger wage increases and continued job growth as well as the maintenance of low inflation.
Updated
The fall in sterling has given a boost to the FTSE 100, which is now up around 70 points or 1%.
Full as it is of exporters and dollar earners, the leading index has tended to move higher as the pound weakens.
In contrast, the more domestic focused FTSE 250 is up just 0.07%.
Meanwhile the Dow Jones Industrial Average has opened slightly lower, down around 13 points.
Updated
Mark Carney’s testimony could see further pressure on the pound, says Caxton FX analyst Alexandra Russell-Oliver:
Sterling has dropped, partially as a result of pressure on the pound ahead of Carney’s testimony this afternoon (3:35pm) and partially due to dollar strength following above-forecast housing data. There is the risk of further sterling weakness/volatility during Carney’s testimony, which will focus on the economic consequences of the Brexit vote.
Cable is trading around 1.2125, near its October 11 lows, which marked its lowest levels since 1985 (excluding the flash crash drop). Sterling’s down over 0.7% against the dollar and over 0.6% against the euro since 1:30pm.
Pound tumbles as traders await Carney’s testimony on Brexit impact https://t.co/5sbVAJYJr0 via @worrachate @_DavidGoodman pic.twitter.com/FopLKUriqG
— Bloomberg Markets (@markets) October 25, 2016
BoE governor Mark Carney set to appear at Lords Committee
This afternoon’s sudden drop in the pound comes ahead of an appearance by Bank of England governor Mark Carney before the House of Lords Economic Affairs Committee (there is a live TV link here.)
A week before the Bank of England unveils its latest monetary policy decision - following the hint last time that a rate cut was possible - Carney is likely to be quizzed on the state of the economy and whether another cut is necessary.
With prime minister Theresa May criticising quantitative easing and various politicians making negative comments about the Bank, Carney may also repeat his insistence that the Bank is independent in its decisions. (He must have been pleased to hear Chancellor Philip Hammond defend this very thing last week.).
He is also likely to be asked about his future, given that he said he would decide by the end of the year whether to leave in 2018 or stay on longer.
Kathleen Brooks, research director at City Index, said:
The markets will primarily be looking for any hints that Carney and co. at the BOE have plans to cut interest rates further. The market has pretty much priced out the prospect of a near-term rate cut from the BOE, but a dovish tone from Carney could see the market start to re-price the prospect of a cut, and the pound could take a hit.
Mark Carney’s testimony comes at an interesting time, as relations between the BOE and the government remain tense after the PM appeared to criticize QE, and threaten the Bank’s independence. It also comes as Carney has two months to decide whether or not to leave the BOE in 2018, or stay on until 2021, he will make a formal announcement by the end of the year.
If Carney voices concerns about the deteriorating relationship with the government then this would be the worst outcome for the pound in our view, as the last thing an already Brexit-frazzled foreign exchange market needs now is discord between the UK authorities. It could also make it more likely that Carney will quit his post in 2018, right in the middle of the UK’s Brexit negotiations.
As a reminder, the House of Lords committee has said it expects to ask the following questions:
- Are ultra-low interest rates fuelling inequality and threatening the independence of central banks?
- Did the Bank misjudge the short-term impact of Brexit prior to the referendum?
- What impact will the fall in the value of the pound have on the UK’s economy and the inflation target?
- Will a ‘hard’ Brexit lead to job losses in the City of London?
- How and when will quantitative easing be unwound?
The sudden fall in the pound may be due to other factors, some believe:
So Sterling drops because Hammond says weakness of pound will impact on inflation - surely that's a statement of the bleeding obvious. #gbp
— Michael Hewson (@mhewson_CMC) October 25, 2016
A flash crash when we're all awake. Far more civlised! Technically breaking 1.2180-90 wasn't good. 1.2090 next support of note...#GBPUSD #FX
— Clive Lambert (@FuturesTechs) October 25, 2016
And it is not just the dollar: sterling is down 0.7% against the euro at €1.116.
Updated
Dollar strengthens, pound drops as US house prices jump
The US currency has moved higher after a rise in house prices.
The Federal Housing Finance Agency home price index climbed 0.7% in August compared to the previous month.
And it has jumped 6.4% from August last year. The strength of these latest figures will add to the idea that the US Federal Reserve could hike interest rates again before the end of the year, probably in December.
The news has seen the pound drop around 1% to a weekly low of $1.2116 against the dollar before recovering a little to $1.2128. The euro has hit a seven and a half month low against the dollar.
Updated
Caterpillar warns of economic weakness after slashing sales forecast.
Bad news from Wall Street. Caterpillar, the construction equipment and machinery maker, has cut its sales forecast.
The firm, famous for its bright yellow cranes, diggers and trucks, warned that business is tough as potential customers delay purchases, amid mediocre global growth prospects.
Chief executive Doug Oberhelman says:
“Economic weakness throughout much of the world persists and, as a result, most of our end markets remain challenged.”
Caterpillar cut its projected revenues in 2016 to $39bn, down from $40.1bn. It also fears that next year will be hard to, saying:
“While we are seeing early signals of improvement in some areas, we continue to face a number of challenges....
We remain cautious as we look ahead to 2017, but are hopeful as the year unfolds we will begin to see more positive momentum.”
This isn’t the first time this year that Caterpillar has sounded gloomy. It cut its earnings forecast in July, citing Brexit as a threat to global growth.
Caterpillar issues earnings warnings every quarter. New normal. $CAT pic.twitter.com/97IDS18l6S
— Brian Sozzi (@BrianSozzi) October 25, 2016
John Lewis names new MD
Twenty two years after joining John Lewis as a graduate trainee, Paula Nickolds has just made it to the top of the high street firm, as its first ever female chief.
John Lewis has announced that Nickolds, currently their commercial director, has been promoted to one of the biggest jobs in UK retail.
She will replace Andy Street, the outgoing MD who is bidding to become mayor of the West Midlands.
John Lewis appoints first ever woman as managing director - Paula Nickolds to replace Andy Street in January..
— Sarah Butler (@whatbutlersaw) October 25, 2016
Breaking news: Paula Nickolds appointed managing director of @johnlewisretail, replacing Andy Street from January pic.twitter.com/C7nVGpV7C9
— Kirsty McGregor (@KirstyMcGregor) October 25, 2016
Chairman Sir Charlie Mayfield says:
“At a time of transformation in the retail sector, Paula’s progressive and dynamic leadership is just what’s needed for the next phase of modern retailing.
As a partner with 22 years’ service, I know just how special the John Lewis Partnership is. Driven by our unique business model, and with innovation in our DNA, I am immensely excited to lead John Lewis on the next stage of our journey.”
Nickolds says she got hooked on retail as child, visiting Marks & Spencer stores with her father (who worked for M&S).
Nickolds joined John Lewis in 1994, and made it to the board in 2013 as buying and brand director. That would have included overseeing the retailers’ Christmas adverts, including this classic:
Hammond is asked whether he would approve another bout of quantitative easing, if the Bank of England wanted to stimulate the economy again.
The chancellor says that the BoE’s bond-buying scheme has been highly effective so far, and hints that he would not obstruct another dose if needed.
No request for quantitative easing has ever been refused, and I can’t see why it would be different in future.
Worth remembering that Theresa May, the PM, criticised QE earlier this month for making the rich richer.....
Hammond: No Request For QE Has Ever Been Refused, See No Reason Why Circumstances Would Be Different In Future
— Anthony Barton (@AntBarton89) October 25, 2016
Updated
Philip Hammond has also been asked about the possibility that Brexit will cost London the ability to handle ‘euro clearing’ (the settling of derivative contracts priced in euros).
The chancellor says that the European Central Bank has already tried, and failed, once to move euro clearing into the eurozone.
He says that euro clearing is “not easily separated from other activities in London”, but it also only makes up a relatively small part of total jobs and business in the City.
Philip Hammond has also warned MPs that European leaders could prioritise political issues over economic ones, in the upcoming Brexit negotiations.
Hammond warns that whatever economic merits of a good exit deal for Europe, EU leaders worried about damaging their EU "political project".
— Michael Savage (@michaelsavage) October 25, 2016
HAmmond message - don't necessarily expect the economically rational outcome from Brexit negotiation. https://t.co/ASTUTVZSZ0
— Faisal Islam (@faisalislam) October 25, 2016
Updated
Hammond: We'll put the City's needs at heart of Brexit talks
Over in parliament, chancellor Philip Hammond has pledged to prioritise the needs of Britain’s financial sector, during EU exit talks.
Hammond told MPs that:
“I certainly have been seeking to reassure financial services businesses that we will put their needs at the heart of the negotiation with the European Union.
We understand their needs for market access. We also understand their needs to be able to engage the right skilled people.”
Last week, the head of the British Bankers’ Association warned that banks could start shifting jobs out of London early next year, because they fear losing their rights to ‘passport’ services across the EU.
Some experts have suggested Britain could secure access to the customs union, in return for continuing to pay into the EU budget. That might address the passporting issue, but might alarm Brexit supporters who hoped to make a clean break with Europe....
Greece finally gets €2.8bn bailout payment
Eurozone officials have finally given the green light to unlock Greece’s next aid tranche, worth €2.8bn.
This comes two weeks after finance ministers agreed that Athens had hit the milestones laid out in its 3rd bailout.
Klaus Regling, the head of Europe’s bailout fund, says:
“Today’s decision to disburse 2.8 billion euros ($3.0 billion) to Greece is a sign that the Greek people are steadily making progress in reforming their country.”
Greece’s prime minister, Alexis Tsipras, has been hosting a meeting about the refugee crisis - which is putting extra strain on the country’s finances. He’s calling for a better system to help migrants, and a new pro-growth economic strategy for Europe.
Meeting with journalists from across the EU today hosted by @EEAthina regarding #refugeecrisis and European affairs. 1/4 pic.twitter.com/0MKXTXax4G
— Alexis Tsipras (@tsipras_eu) October 25, 2016
In the framework of globalisation and the EU, a left strategy is to change the balance of power internationally, not only domestically 2/4 pic.twitter.com/HEf5PAFA64
— Alexis Tsipras (@tsipras_eu) October 25, 2016
It is important to replace austerity with a growth-oriented agenda to the benefit of society and economy. 3/4
— Alexis Tsipras (@tsipras_eu) October 25, 2016
It is necessary to replace irregular and dangerous migration routes with safe and regular ones. 4/4
— Alexis Tsipras (@tsipras_eu) October 25, 2016
If German business chiefs are really feeling more confident, they could consider spending some of their huge cash piles.
According to the Wall Street Journal, German companies are sitting on around €450bn of cash - but are proving reluctant to invest it.
And there are fears that this could hamper growth, just when Europe desperately needs to boost activity and create jobs.
The WSJ says:
The problem isn’t unique to Germany. Companies in other developed countries have also been investing less since the financial crisis. But Germany’s low investment is striking given the country’s relatively robust economic performance—especially compared with other European countries—and its record-low unemployment.
Advocates of higher corporate investment say German parsimony is troubling, because the economy depends to such a large degree on research- and capital-intensive industries. It risks weakening the ability of Europe’s largest industrial power to grow and create jobs in future, with negative consequences for all of Europe.
“We need to be careful that Germany doesn’t fall behind technologically because of persistently low investment,” said Reinhold Festge, head of the German engineering-sector association VDMA, which represents over 3,100 midsize companies.
Here’s the full piece:
German firms are sitting on $500 billion but are reluctant to invest, threatening the country’s competitive edge https://t.co/9U6IRVRuZk
— Wall Street Journal (@WSJ) October 25, 2016
After its recent wild turbulence, sterling seems to have calmed down a little.
The pound is stubbornly stuck around the $1.22 mark this morning, as currency traders await Mark Carney’s testimony at the House of Lords.
Arnaud Masset, market analyst at Swissquote Bank, says:
Sterling remains under substantial pressure as investors continued to expect harsh consequences amid the UK decision to leave the European Union.
Eek. Shares in troubled Italian bank Monte dei Paschi have just been temporarily suspended after plunging by 23%.
They had jumped in early trading, after it announced plans to sell €28bn of bad debts and shrink its operations (see earlier post).
Limit up...limit down...Monte dei Paschi all over the place after outlines restructuring plan. Share proice just -0.27 - gonna be volatile
— Caroline Hyde (@CarolineHydeTV) October 25, 2016
Updated
The jump in German business confidence has driven Frankfurt’s main share index, the DAX, up to a new 2016 high.
Chris Beauchamp of IG says:
A healthy reading from the German IFO report has buoyed risk appetite.
This jump in German business confidence comes a day after Markit reported that German companies are growing at their fastest rate since July.
Pernille Bomholdt, senior analyst at Danske Bank, reckons Germany’s economy is growing fast -- at a quarterly rate of 0.8%
German #ifo expectations confirm yesterday's signal from strong #PMI - both signal German #GDP growth above 0.8% q/q in the beginning of Q4 pic.twitter.com/tnyOYauzfA
— Pernille Bomholdt H. (@pernibomholdt) October 25, 2016
German business confidence jumps: What the experts say
City analysts are welcoming the surge in German business confidence this month.
Naeem Aslam of Think Markets believes it will have a positive impact on the whole eurozone:
The German IFO data has provided further evidence that the economic engine of the eurozone is picking up steam. There is no doubt that there will be spill over effects of this in other eurozone countries and the economic picture will look a lot more better there.
The German economic data has helped the sentiment and traders are falling more in love with equities. The news has also provided a support for the Euro.
Anthony Cheung of Amplify Trading points out that it follows a strong reading in September:
Forecasting beating German IFO number but limited reaction as last month saw such an impressive increase it comes as less of a surprise pic.twitter.com/XWHYD0Tbbt
— Anthony Cheung (@AWMCheung) October 25, 2016
And data firm Markit also believes the German economy is improving.
Further signs of improving economic conditions in #Germany: #Ifo Business Climate at 2½-year high. Charted against #PMI here pic.twitter.com/TBC2E6Ov44
— Markit Economics (@MarkitEconomics) October 25, 2016
German bosses are more upbeat about current trading, and their future prospects, according to today’s report from IFO.
- The current economic conditions index rose to 115 from 114.7.
- And the future expectations index jumped to 106.1 from 104.5.
More good news: German Ifo Business Confidence Increases to Highest Since 2014, outpacing expectations. (Chart via FT) pic.twitter.com/XfPoUkXYcm
— Holger Zschaepitz (@Schuldensuehner) October 25, 2016
IFO: Brexit shock is over
The jump in German business confidence this month shows that the shock of Britain’s EU referendum has dissipated, according to Ifo economist Klaus Wohlrabe.
Wohlrabe told Reuters that:
“The Brexit vote has been digested.”
Wohlrabe added that Wallonia’s decision to throw a large spanner into the EU’s trade deal with Canada has not dampened Germany’s economy either.
German business confidence hits two-year high
Europe’s largest economy is bouncing back from the shock of Britain’s EU referendum vote, according to the latest healthcheck from the IFO thinktank.
IFO’s business climate index, which surveys 7,000 German business leaders, has hit its highest level since April 2014. That shows executives are increasingly confident about their prospects, despite the uncertainty over Brexit, and the looming US election.
Ifo head Clemens Fuest says:
“The upturn in the German economy is gathering impetus.”
IFO’s business climate index hit 110.5 in October, up from 109.5 in September, beating expectations of an unchanged reading. Construction firms and manufacturers are particularly upbeat.
Germany's #Ifo business climate index at highest level since April 2014 - defying expectations.
— Tom Barfield (@tombarfield) October 25, 2016
German Ifo business confidence increases to highest since 2014 https://t.co/qKlo6baDEt via @Skolimowski pic.twitter.com/pYycO7SXyH
— Zoe Schneeweiss (@ZSchneeweiss) October 25, 2016
Monte dei Paschi to slash 2,600 jobs in turnaround plan
After many months of anguish, Italy’s oldest bank may finally be turning the corner – but at the cost of thousands of jobs.
Monte dei Paschi has agreed a turnaround plan, that will see it sell off €28bn of bad debts and raise €5bn in fresh capital. It is also planning to cut 2,600 jobs – one in 10 workers - and close 500 branches.
New CEO Marco Morelli hopes to complete the capital raising by the end of this year – although it could be disrupted if the Italian government loses a crunch referendum on constitutional reforms.
The bank also posted a €1.15bn loss for the last quarter, as bad debts continue to drag it down.
But investors may have faith – shares are up 2.6% this morning, and have gained almost 60% in recent weeks:
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The euro is hovering close to last week’s seven-month low, as investors digest the breakdown of talks with Canada over a new trade deal.
Euro a tad lower as Wallonia shakes world (or Canada, at least). EU's Schulz pessimistic on Ceta solution this week https://t.co/WjK9JxnhWY pic.twitter.com/CZ8El66l7z
— Holger Zschaepitz (@Schuldensuehner) October 25, 2016
Mark Ostwald of ADM Investor Services agrees that Mark Carney will be quizzed about his future this afternoon:
Mr Carney testifies to the House of Lords Economic Affairs Committee, where he will doubtless resolutely defend the BoE’s independence, though he may face some awkward questions about whether he will extend his term to the full eight years, and indeed whether he will complete his initial five year term.
Europe’s main stock markets are following Japan’s lead, and are all up in early trading.
FTSE 100 creeps back over 7,000 points
Britain’s blue-chip FTSE 100 index has inched higher in early trading, gaining 25 points to 7011.
Mining companies are rallying, after Chinese iron ore futures prices hit a six-year high overnight.
Anglo American is leading the way, up 3%. It told shareholders this morning that its on track to hit its production targets this year (apart from coking coal, which it trimmed slightly).
Whitbread are the biggest faller, though, dropping by 3%, despite posting a 5.4% rise in profits so far this year.
It told the City that demand at its Premier Inn hotels and Costa Coffee shops was solid.
It’s aiming to open another 3,700 new Premier Inn rooms in the UK by the end of the financial year, and 250 new Costa Coffee shops worldwide.
Conner Campbell of SpreadEx says:
It seems that Britain’s appetite for average coffee and cheapish hotel rooms hasn’t diminished since the referendum result, though of course it goes without saying that on the Brexit front it is still early doors. Yet investors weren’t ready to send the stock any higher, however.
Updated
US dollar strengthens
There are two reasons why the US dollar is strengthening, according to Bloomberg.
1) America’s manufacturing sector strengthened this month, according to yesterday’s Markit PMI.
2) A top US central bank official has predicted that interest rates will be hiked several times in the next year.
Bloomberg says
The gauge of the greenback’s strength remains near to its highest level since March after a preliminary U.S. purchasing managers’ index rose and Fed Bank of Chicago President Charles Evans said it’s likely that interest rates will be hiked three times by the end of 2017. The yen fell 0.2 percent.
“Evans probably had a stronger impact than the PMI on the strength of the dollar,” said Kyosuke Suzuki, head of currency and money-market sales at Societe Generale SA in Tokyo. “There aren’t many senior Fed officials who have come out with specific numbers of expected rate increases. That’s providing a tailwind for the dollar.”
Japan's Nikkei hits highest level since April
Japan’s stock market has hit a new six-month high today, as investors drive down the yen against the US dollar.
The Nikkei jumped by 0.75% today, extending recent gains, to close 130 points higher at 17,365 points. That means it has gained 16% since the slump after the Brexit referendum.
It was pushed upwards by a surge of money into the US dollar, which is close to a seven month high against a basket of currencies.
The dollar is benefitting from growing confidence that the US Federal Reserve will raise interest rates in December.
That weakened the yen, which is a big boost for Japanese exporters -- and should also help fight deflation.
Fed Rate-Rise Probability Jumps to Almost 71 Percent for December Meeting #Fed #markets #EmergingMarkets #Yellen #USEconomy pic.twitter.com/UwGzOFybMr
— justin carrigan (@justincarri) October 25, 2016
There was also optimism, after yesterday’s data showed Eurozone companies growing at their fastest pace this year. That could bode well for global growth, and mean more demand for Japanese exports.
Commodity prices are rallying too, as Reuters explains:
There were also tentative hopes rising prices for steel and some industrial commodities - zinc surged to a five-year peak and iron ore reached its highest since mid-2014 - could pick up the pulse of inflation globally.
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The agenda: Mark Carney faces House of Lords grilling
Good morning, and welcome to our rolling coverage of the world economy, the financial markets, the eurozone and business.
Brexit supporters have been gunning for Mark Carney ever since the Bank of England governor warned that voting to leave the EU would cause ‘material’ damage to the UK economy.
Four months after the referendum, Carney faces a grilling from the House of Lords Economic Affairs Committee about the historic vote to leave the EU, starting at 3.35pm today.
He’ll be facing (among others) two former chancellors, Alastair Darling and Norman Lamont.
Rather sportingly, the Committee have already published their key questions:
- Are ultra-low interest rates fuelling inequality and threatening the independence of central banks?
- Did the Bank misjudge the short-term impact of Brexit prior to the referendum?
- What impact will the fall in the value of the pound have on the UK’s economy and the inflation target?
- Will a ‘hard’ Brexit lead to job losses in the City of London?
- How and when will quantitative easing be unwound?
Carney should feel free to cite the Guardian’s Brexit dashboard, which shows how rising inflation is hitting the economy:
Of course, there’s another question that needs addressing....how long will Carney stay at the Bank of England? His contract runs out in summer 2018, but there’s been talk of extending it until 2021.
But the recent criticism from politicians, from Theresa May downwards, may have stung Carney and made him consider seeking new pastures....
Also coming up today...
The latest IFO survey, due at 9am BST, will show how Germany’s economy is faring this month.
And we’re getting financial results from transport firm National Express, hotels-to-coffee shops group Whitbread, car showrooms firm Pendragon and flooring firm Carpetright, plus a production report from mining giant Anglo American,
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