That’s all for tonight (although I might pop back and add some front pages later).
Here’s our latest news story about the markets:
Goodnight and thanks for reading and commenting! GW
US stock market hits new record high
And finally tonight.... America’s stock market has hit a new alltime high, as global markets continue their relief rally.
The S&P 500 index closed 7 points higher, or 0.33%, at 2,136.95 points. That narrowly breaches the previous high set in May 2015.
BREAKING: S&P 500 closes at all-time high » https://t.co/My7mEB616n pic.twitter.com/FB5ji9xVhI
— CNBC Now (@CNBCnow) July 11, 2016
Jim Paulsen, chief investment strategist at Wells Capital Management, reckons that traders are feeling more optimistic about the global economy (after last Friday’s decent US employment report).
Paulsen says:
“You have Brexit and global stagnation, but underneath that we keep getting really good economic numbers and that is forcing the (stock) market to new highs.”
The tantalising scent of fresh stimulus packages in Britain and Japan soon also worked its usual magic, of course.
BREAKING: Standard & Poor's 500 index closes at a record high, beating the mark it set in May 2015 .
— The Associated Press (@AP) July 11, 2016
So, record highs on Wall Street. The London stock market back in bull market territory (thanks to the weak pound) and even Europe shaking off its Brexit fears.
Not a bad day, but also not a reason to think the Brexit crisis is over.
This chart of the FTSE 250 index of smaller UK companies this year shows how it has scrambled back from the Brexit shock last month (red for down, green for up):
Although still off 23/6 close,difficult to currently use FTSE250 as stick to beat on Brexit. Back in pre-poll range: pic.twitter.com/Rzv5zuV0Fn
— David Jones (@JonesTheMarkets) July 11, 2016
Updated
Ken Odeluga, market analyst at trading firm City Index, says companies most focused on the UK got the biggest boost today from Theresa May’s rise to the top.
We believe ‘pure-play’ UK equities have rallied on relief that the more pragmatic, less conspicuously ideological and more experienced candidate has emerged as Britain’s next Prime Minster, ahead of difficult and multi-faceted discussions with a wounded and potentially vengeful EU.
Investors were pleased to focus on political developments, rather than the Bank of England’s promises to cushion the impact of Brexit.
As Odeluga puts it:
We note markets shrugged off revolving doors in the Conservative leadership contest and Labour’s failure to open a trapdoor under its own chief.
It has taken the withdrawal of the last right-leaning Eurosceptic standing, Andrea Leadsom, to raise an unmistakably positive reaction in the City.
There’s real anticipation in the City tonight about whether the Bank of England will cut interest rates to fresh record lows on Thursday.
The BoE has already hinted that more stimulus will be needed this summer to help the economy. But given the inflationary impact of a weak pound, it may be reluctant to lower borrowing costs (and weaken sterling further).
Kallum Pickering says the Bank could decide to leave its powder dry until August, when governor Mark Carney will present the new quarterly inflation report.
He writes:
We see a 60% chance that the nine member MPC votes to cut the bank rate, if so, probably by 25 basis points.
However, there is a chance that the MPC holds for now, and instead opts to send a dovish signal that the bank will ease monetary policy three weeks later at the August Inflation Report when it is due to publish its revised economic forecasts.
The pound is getting a late lift tonight, as Theresa May prepares to become Britain’s next prime minister, on Wednesday afternoon.
Sterling is hovering just below $1.30, up half a cent today.
Chris Saint, senior analyst at Hargreaves Lansdown Currency Service, says:
Markets will be hopeful that the prospect of Theresa May becoming Prime Minister will soon bring some clarity to the UK political landscape as well as a more conciliatory approach towards Europe.
May has already insisted, though, that “Brexit means Brexit”, so she’s not hinting at a referendum u-turn...
And Owen Paterson tells @annabotting "She [may] has said Brexit means Brexit, it had better mean Brexit, because 17m people voted for it"
— Faisal Islam (@faisalislam) July 11, 2016
Euro stocks hit highest level since the referendum
European stock markets have also enjoyed a May-bounce.
The STOXX Europe 600 .STOXX closed up 1.6% at 332.72, its highest close since June 23. However it is still 4% below its pre-referendum levels, due to concerns that Brexit will hurt the European economy.
The news that Theresa May would replace David Cameron on Wednesday seemed to bring relief to European trading floors.
Ankit Gheedia, equity and derivative strategist at BNP Paribas, reckoned that May was a safer pair of hands than Andrea Leadsom (who stepped down from the leadership race today)
“The difference between Theresa May and her counterpart was that she has a disciplined approach and a proper strategy for Brexit. The alternative was uncertain.
“We know she has experience, and is a bit more strategic, so the market is relieved on the back of that.”
(Thanks to Reuters for the quotes)
Some late newsflashes from Brussels, where eurozone finance ministers have been meeting.
Jeroen Dijsselbloem, head of the Eurogroup, says the Brexit vote is hurting eurozone confidence:
First #eurogroup meeting since UK referendum. Euro area recovery is robust, heightened uncertainty is detrimental to economic activity
— Jeroen Dijsselbloem (@J_Dijsselbloem) July 11, 2016
And European commissioner Pierre Moscovici has revealed that the EC is dialling down its growth forecasts for the UK and the eurozone next year:
@pierremoscovici: Growth could be 1-2,5% lower in UK and 0,2-0,5% lower in eurozone after brexit-vote. No forecast, preliminary assessment.
— Rik Winkel (@RikWinkel) July 11, 2016
The global rally in shares today has sent America’s S&P 500 index to a record high today:
Fawad Razaqzada, market analyst at Forex.com, believes the S&P 500 will keep climbing:
So, the S&P 500 is rallying to fresh unchartered territories today. Where do we go from here? Well, the monthly chart suggests onwards and upwards.
America’s tech index has hit its highest level of the year:
BREAKING: NASDAQ Composite rises above 5,000 for the first time this year https://t.co/My7mEAOqeP pic.twitter.com/vO4U6vTxEp
— CNBC Now (@CNBCnow) July 11, 2016
Theresa May helped to push shares higher
The FTSE 100 burst into Bull Market territory moments before Theresa May was crowned as the new leader of the Conservative Party.
May will become prime minister on Wednesday, and investors have welcomed this sudden outbreak of certainty in UK politics.
Laith Khalaf, senior analyst at Hargreaves Lansdown, says shares are also benefiting from expectations of an interest rate cut on Thursday.
Here’s his take:
‘The Footsie has been tipped into a bull market by the emergence of Theresa May as Prime Minister, though the whiff of some loose monetary policy coming from the Bank of England this Thursday probably helped the index over the line too.
The role played by the commodity behemoths should not be under-estimated either, these stocks are now trading at much higher prices than in the depths of the market in February.
The Tories may be starting to get their house in order, but the stock market has hardly followed in the mould of the one-nation conservatism espoused by the party. There have been very divergent fortunes amongst the big blue chips, with some airlines, house builders and banks being left behind by the rest of the market.
Here’s the top risers and fallers on the FTSE 100 tonight:
The FTSE 250 used to be the ugly duckling of the City, full of companies not big enough to make the Footsie 100.
Now, though, it’s blossomed into everyone’s favourite stock market index (or so it feels, anyway).
.@graemewearden @DanielFurrUK Ah but the more important FTSE 250 is only up 11% from its low in February….. pic.twitter.com/6hIrfqQYhW
— Calum Mercer (@CalumMercer) July 11, 2016
London's FTSE 100 hits Bull Market territory
It’s official! Britain’s FTSE 100 index is back in bull market territory.
The blue-chip index of the largest firms listed on the London stock market has just closed 92 points higher tonight, at 6682, a gain of 1.4% today.
That means the Footsie has risen by over 20% since 11 February, when global investors were fretting about China’s slowing economy tipping the world into recession.
That was a simpler time, before Brexit became the word on everyone’s lips and British politics entered a period of remarkable upheaval (which ain’t over yet, judging by events in the Labour party today).
LATEST: FTSE 100 enters bull market after rising 20% from its February low https://t.co/takpvt1hZP pic.twitter.com/IDOxKwvdQB
— Bloomberg (@business) July 11, 2016
Mining firm Anglo American is the biggest gainer, closing 8.5% higher, followed by building supply firm Travis Perkins (up 7.8%).
However, this does not mean that Britain’s economy is suddenly rosy. Remember...
- Most of the FTSE 100 constituents are international companies, so they’re not a good gauge of the UK economy
- The weak pound drives up their earnings (as the dollars, yen and euros they collect as profits are worth more in sterling terms).
- The value of these firms has been hit hard by the 10% slump in the value of the pound.
- The smaller FTSE 250 is still below its pre-referendum levels (despite jumping by over 2% today).
- Two surveys today have shown that investor confidence has been hit very hard by the Brexit vote (see Moody’s warning here....and also Hargreaves Lansdown’s alarming survey here..).
But still, investors will be relieved to see the index up, not down.
Chris Beauchamp of IG explains that events in Westminster have boosted confidence in the City.
UK politics continues to provide the most compelling TV viewing of the year so far, as Teresa May’s last opponent abandons the field.
The bounce in UK mid-caps is more than partly due to hopes that, with Remainer May as PM, talks with Europe may be smoother, while the disappearance of a summer leadership contest has helped clear road ahead for UK equities.
Updated
Shares in many smaller UK companies are also strongly higher today.
Michael Hewson of CMC Markets explains why:
The FTSE250 has also enjoyed a decent bounce, up nearly 3% hitting its highest levels since its plunge from its 23rd June peaks. This removal of one element from the mix of political uncertainty is likely to bring into sharp relief the next stage of the “Brexit” process and in particular the timings of when Article 50 is likely to get triggered.
However, the FTSE 250 index is still below its pre-referendum levels, unlike the FTSE 100 (which gets that weak pound boost)
Here’s another sign that the Brexit vote has hurt the European economy.
A new survey by Moody’s Analytics reports that:
Global business confidence has slumped in the wake of the Brexit vote in late June. European sentiment continues to sink and is now consistent with an economy that is on the verge of stalling out.
More than one-fourth of the survey responses by European businesses are negative, the highest that has been on a consistent basis since the European debt crisis. Encouragingly, sentiment in the United States and Pacific Rim haven’t been materially impacted by British exit vote.
Global business confidence has slumped in the wake of the Brexit vote, Moody's Analytics survey finds. https://t.co/wWNdCmexUV
— MoodysAnalytics ECON (@economics_ma) July 11, 2016
Weak business confidence often leads to lower investment, and less new hiring, so it could be quite damaging....
Updated
City traders are pleased that at least some of the political uncertainty sitting over Britain like a heavy fog is lifting.
Connor Campbell of Spreadex explains:
Theresa May is clearly the market’s preferred choice for Britain’s top job, as evidenced by the reaction that greeted Leadsom’s stand-down statement. May’s lack of interest in rushing to activate Article 50 and her relatively less contentious relationship with the EU when compared to her (now long gone) rivals, as well as the general cheer at the mere fact of the UK once again having a PM, is arguably responsible for the rise from the FTSE and pound, both of which improved on their morning performances.
The former jumped by nearly 1%, sitting firmly at 2016 (and indeed 11 month) highs; the latter, meanwhile, managed to climb away from its earlier lows, even if the currency remains haunted by the spectre of a Bank of England rate cut on Thursday.
The chancellor is watching events unfold from across the Atlantic, and tweets:
Welcome news we have 1 candidate with overwhelming support to be next PM. Theresa May has strength, integrity & determination to do the job
— George Osborne (@George_Osborne) July 11, 2016
The economy and businesses in UK and around the world need certainty so it is in everyone's interest Theresa takes over as PM in coming days
— George Osborne (@George_Osborne) July 11, 2016
The FT reckons that foreign secretary Phillip Hammond could become finance minister in Theresa May’s government....
London shares have extended their gains this afternoon, as Wall Street opened strongly on the back of Friday’s forecast-busting non-farm payrolls.
The S&P 500 set a record high, while the Dow was up 92 points, or 0.5 percent, to 18,240 within the first half hour of trading, with banks leading the charge.
“Reaching a new high may see money moving from the sidelines of safety trades, like Treasury bonds and gold, back into the equity markets,” Robert Pavlik, chief market strategist at Boston Private Wealth, told Reuters.
“The emphasis of the markets will be how fast and how long the S&P remains above the record today.”
By 3pm, the FTSE 100 had extended its gains to just over 70 points, or 1.1%, at 6664 points.
Late lunchtime catch-up
A quick recap:
- Britain’s FTSE 100 index is poised to smash into bull market territory, after being boosted by the weakness of the pound since the Brexit referendum. It has jumped 1% today, meaning it is 20% higher than in February.
- The smaller FTSE 250 index is also romping higher, on expectations that UK interest rates will be cut to fresh record lows on Thursday.
- But the pound has been volatile today, as Theresa May moved to the brink of becoming UK prime minister.
- May has called for a new clampdown on executive pay and predatory capitalism, getting a ‘better late than never’ welcome from the unions.
- Film studio Pinewood has declared that it should benefit from the weak pound, as Britain will become a more attractive place to make films.
- Chancellor George Osborne has landed in America, in an attempt to reassure US investors that they should still invest in Britain.
MSNBC describing George Osborne simply as 'a member of the British parliament' pic.twitter.com/91TjrMuLqy
— Ned Simons (@nedsimons) July 11, 2016
George Osborne says Theresa May should be PM ‘in the next few days’
— Ned Simons (@nedsimons) July 11, 2016
In non-Brexit news:
Burberry names new CEO
Some non-Brexit news.... Fashion chain Burberry have just announced a new chief executive.
It’s Marco Gobbetti, currently CEO of fashion chain Céline.
This means that Christopher Bailey, Burberry’s creative mastermind, is moving to become president, after two years as CEO. He’ll be chief creative officer too - but effectively he’s losing day-to-day control of the company
It’s not a great surprise; City investors were concerned that Bailey couldn’t do both jobs, especially as trading has deteriorated in recent months.
Burberry shares have jumped 6%...
Markets can be brutal. Burberry names a new CEO... pic.twitter.com/wbMqEv5U6E
— Jonathan Ferro (@FerroTV) July 11, 2016
Updated
Chancellor George Osborne has now landed New York, for his mission to reassure America that Britain is still open for business despite the Brexit vote (as we covered earlier).
He’ll be on US TV shortly, in an early-morning treat for America.....
About to be on @Morning_Joe on @MSNBC in New York re importance of an even stronger relationship between UK & US pic.twitter.com/Fcku0ST5la
— George Osborne (@George_Osborne) July 11, 2016
Enjoy the pound’s rally while it lasts, says Jake Trask, currency analyst at UKForex.
He predicts that sterling will soon weaken again, possibly later this week when the Bank of England announces its interest rate decision
“Sterling pushed higher today as pro-Brexit candidate Angela Leadsom pulled out of the contest to be the next prime minister. The pound pushed up through $1.30 against the US dollar on the news, but the rally is likely to be short-lived, as Mark Carney is expected to cut interest rates to a record low of 0.25% this Thursday.
“Should he decide to cut rates to zero, we will likely see another multi-year low for sterling as we head towards a probable recession in the second half of the year.”
Updated
FTSE 250 jumps 2.7%
Almost every company on the FTSE 250 index of medium-sized UK companies has risen today.
Property companies are leading the rally, driving the FTSE 250 up by 2.7% right now.
Investment group St. Modwen Properties has jumped 9%, and British housebuilding company Crest Nicholson are up 7.6%.
Earlier today, Theresa May identified housebuilding as a key priority if she became prime minister (which now seems an imminent prospect).
FTSE 100 up 0.88%. But FTSE 250 up over 2.5% after Leadsom quits @BBCNews @@BBCWorld
— Jamie Robertson (@Bizrobertson) July 11, 2016
Shares in house builders Taylor Wimpy, Barratt Homes, Persimmon, Travis Perkins & Berkeley all jump immediately after Leadsom withdrawal
— Simon Neville (@SimonNeville) July 11, 2016
This graph shows how shares in big companies on the FTSE 100 (red line) have roared back since the referendum, thanks to the slump in the pound.
Smaller UK companies are shown on the blue line (the FTSE 250), and Germany’s DAX is the pink line.
#FTSE100 pricing in benefits of #GBP depreciation, whereas Europe + FTSE250 feeling the pain. Graphic via @fastFT WM pic.twitter.com/KaeUiLM3Om
— IGSquawk (@IGSquawk) July 11, 2016
In exquisite timing, confidence among small investors has hit its lowest level since the heights of the eurozone crisis in 2012 - just as shares keep rallying.
Hargreaves Lansdown, the financial services firms, reports that its Investor Confidence Index has suffered its sharpest monthly fall in 5 years.
The survey of retail investors took place on 30 June, a week after the EU referendum result, and asked them to give their view of the UK stock market over the next three years.
The index fell from 92 points in May to 67 in June; the biggest one month percentage fall since June 2011. The index now stands at a four year low - in May 2012 it stood at a level of 61, as Greece looked like it might be on the brink of leaving the eurozone.
Laith Khalaf, senior analyst at Hargreaves Lansdown, says confidence appears to have “collapsed” after the Brexit vote, among investors, consumers and businesses.
The dwindling faith in the UK’s future financial prospects has the potential to become a self-fulfilling prophecy, if companies and individuals start to assume a bunker mentality, and delay or cancel spending and investment.
Investors are naturally twitchy about what Brexit means for the future of the stock market in the coming months and years. However continued low interest rates will remain supportive of shares, not least because there is really nowhere else for investors to go for income. Commercial property is one other option, though we have seen problems that can arise for investors in that market over the last week or so.
FTSE 250 & pound climbing post-Leadsom. Relief we’ll have new PM sooner than later. And markets prefer May to Leadsom (more EU-friendly)
— Ed Conway (@EdConwaySky) July 11, 2016
The pound just put its nose back over the $1.30 mark, on the prospect of Theresa May becoming Britain’s next PM sooner than expected.
Sterling now up 1.5 cents versus dollar in wake of Andrea Leadsom withdrawal pic.twitter.com/K4oDJhXKZf
— Ben Chu (@BenChu_) July 11, 2016
FTSE poised to hit Bull Market territory
Britain’s blue-chip FTSE 100 index is smashing into Bull Market territory.
The Footsie has jumped by 60 points to 6650, a new 11-month high, as Andrea Leadsom confirms that she is withdrawing from the Tory party leadership battle.
Crucially, more than 20% above the 5,537 level hit in mid-February, when markets had been driven down by fears over the global economy.
So if it closes there tonight, the Footsie will be in bull market territory.
FTSE 100 RISES 20% FROM FEBRUARY LOW, SET TO ENTER BULL RUN
— Francine Lacqua (@flacqua) July 11, 2016
Mining stocks are leading today’s rally, with Anglo American up 5%.
UK building companies are also sharply higher; Taylor Wimpey and Persimmon have both gained 6%.
The usual provisos apply; the FTSE 100 is priced in sterling (which is worth 10% less than last month). And it is dominated by international firms, not UK ones.
The smaller FTSE 250 is still 5% below its pre-referendum levels, following a 2% jump this morning.
Joshua Mahony, market analyst at IG, says investors are expecting the Bank of England to ease monetary policy on Thursday. Last Friday’s upbeat US employment report is also cheering the City.
Mahony adds:
Amid a sea of green in the FTSE, it is interesting to see the housebuilders and banks gaining heavily, in what has become a proxy for risk appetite across financial markets. There is no doubt that the housebuilders and banks are currently a risky play, given the severity of their recent devaluation.
However, in days when the market is in the green, the performance of these sectors will reflect how far reaching that optimism really is.
the FTSE 100 is nearly on track to close in a bull market today. Disclaimer: almost nothing to do with the U.K. economy, FTSE 250, etc. etc.
— Riva Gold (@GoldRiva) July 11, 2016
Updated
The pound is suddenly jumping, clawing back most of today’s losses, as rumours sweep Westminster that Andrea Leadsom is about to quit the Tory leadership race.
Caution is needed, as it’s only at a three-hour high....
Maybe traders aren’t sure what happens next. And they’re not alone...
If Leadsom quits - May becomes PM, or Gove back on ballot paper?
— Richard James (@richjamesuk) July 11, 2016
If Leadsom pulls out, May'd be the new Gordon Brown. PM by coronation. So much more pressure for snap gen election & OH HELLO LABOUR PARTY
— Gaby Hinsliff (@gabyhinsliff) July 11, 2016
*sound of a million journalists frantically reading Tory rule book to see if this means Gove can somehow come back into the race*
— Gaby Hinsliff (@gabyhinsliff) July 11, 2016
So if Leadsom goes, and must be replaced but Gove ducks it … then Crabb … but after that Times story? Is it Fox? COULD JOHNSON RETURN?
— Jonathan Haynes (@JonathanHaynes) July 11, 2016
Updated
Our politics liveblog have full coverage of Theresa May’s speech:
May mentions Amazon, Google and Starbucks in same breath as tax. First applause of speechhttps://t.co/9iW0mdJH0Z
— Paul johnson (@paul__johnson) July 11, 2016
Theresa May, one of the two candidates to replace Cameron, is preaching a progressive message this morning.
May is arguing that ordinary families need more help. Wages have only grown slowly, energy bills have rocketed, and monetary stimulus measures have helped those on the property ladder - but not those who can’t [who wrote this speech, Ed Miliband?].
Murmurs of approval in room as May kicks off by saying: "Brexit means Brexit & we're going to make a success of it" pic.twitter.com/VmVDMdroK3
— Emily Ashton (@elashton) July 11, 2016
May is also promising a crackdown on executive pay, giving workers more power, and improving UK productivity.
TUC General Secretary Frances O’Grady says it’s better late than never....
“The TUC has long argued for workers to be given seats on company boards and remuneration committees. Workers have a clear interest in the long-term success of their companies and deserve a bigger say.
“This move would inject a much-needed dose of reality into boardrooms, as well as putting the brakes on the multi-million pay and bonus packages which have done so much to damage the reputation of corporate Britain.
“If politicians are serious about making chief executives more accountable this is a common sense approach. I stand ready to meet Theresa May to discuss these proposals.”
Monday's Times front page:
— Nick Sutton (@suttonnick) July 10, 2016
May vows to crack down on greed of big business#tomorrowspaperstoday #bbcpapers pic.twitter.com/H39szezEpJ
David Cameron also told the Farnborough Airshow that it is in Britain’s “fundamental interest” to remain very close to the EU.
Cameron says he believes it is in Britain's interest to remain "very close to the European Union". pic.twitter.com/GyJCd6JRGb
— Laura Hughes (@Laura_K_Hughes) July 11, 2016
Cameron: Supply-side reforms to tackle UK productivity crisis
Prime minister David Cameron is urging Britain to use the Brexit vote to tackle the country’s productivity problems.
Speaking at the Farnborough Air Show, Cameron calls for a “massive national effort” to build a strong dynamic economy..
He points out that output per hour in the UK is lower than US, Germany or France, and cites high speed rail, superfast broadband and housebuilding as key infrastructure areas to work on.
Now we are leaving the EU, Britain must rapidly explore all possible supply-side reforms, such as tax reforms, Cameron continues.
And he’s singling out pharmaceuticals, life sciences, technology, and fintech as important areas where Britain can lead the world.
One problem, of course... Cameron won’t be in power in two month’s time. So for all his talk about the “ground work” being underway, his successor must actually do the heavy lifting....
Now is the moment to tackle low productivity, says Cameron. After six years in the job...
— Ian Silvera (@ianjsilvera) July 11, 2016
Updated
The AFP newswire have a good take on George Osborne’s trip to America:
British finance minister George Osborne was Monday holding talks with Wall Street investors, kicking-off a series of visits to leading international financial centres to build post-Brexit economic ties.
“Vital work will begin today on building stronger economic and trade relationships with the UK’s closest trading partners,” the Treasury said in a statement as Chancellor of the Exchequer Osborne headed to New York to meet investors on Wall Street.
And Osborne will next week lead a trade mission to Singapore and China after Britain last month voted in a referendum to exit the European Union, the Treasury added.
“While Britain’s decision to leave the EU clearly presents economic challenges, we now have to do everything we can to make the UK the most attractive place in the world to do business,” Osborne, who voted for Britain to remain in the EU, said in the statement.
“We will continue to be a beacon for free trade, democracy and security, more open to that world than ever.”
They also point out that the UK is considering easing the tax bill on companies:
Following the Brexit vote, Osborne is planning to slash corporation tax over fears of an exodus by big business.
According to the Treasury, he could extend planned cuts to Britain’s levy on company profits to under 15 percent. Prior to the vote, the tax rate on corporate profits was already set to be cut from 20 percent to 19 next year and to 17 percent in 2020.
Britain’s business minister Sajid Javid on Friday held post-Brexit talks on the country’s future trade relationship with India, the first of many such discussions he plans with world powers.
Britain is left with the huge task of forging fresh trade agreements with individual countries as a non-bloc member.
Javid has said that the British government, which will soon be led by a new prime minister after the post-Brexit vote resignation of David Cameron, plans to have up to 300 specialist staff by the end of the year to aid in the new trade negotiations.
The jump in the FTSE 100 doesn’t tell us much about the UK economy, except that it may trigger bonus payments to chief executives....
Jump in FTSE 100 due to sterling's fall will increase share-related compensation to CEOs. Brexit bonuses for big bosses!
— John Gapper (@johngapper) July 11, 2016
Japanese bank Nomura are predicting that sterling could hit a new 31-year low by Friday:
Nomura saying short $GBPUSD at 1.2950 looking for circa 1.2700 by the end of the week and post-BoE
— RANsquawk (@RANsquawk) July 11, 2016
The pound may be losing its shock value...
Sterling down 0.7% today, which would normally be a relatively big deal but now we're all, like pic.twitter.com/fApO3ewHZB
— Katie Martin (@katie_martin_fx) July 11, 2016
Neil Wilson, markets analyst at ETX Capital, confirms that the prospect of fresh stimulus from the Bank of England is driving shares up (and the pound down)
The prospect of looser monetary will help equities but it’s another nail in sterling’s coffin.
Homebuilders, which rallied on Friday after a turbulent week, are on the up again today. Miners are also rising again as investors price in an interest rate cut. Encouragingly for UK firms, the FTSE 250 is trading up 1%, beating the FTSE 100’s 0.5% rise.
European markets are up across the board as they react to Friday’s upbeat jobs report from the US, which spurred the Dow to a 1% gain and saw the S&P 500 close within one point of its record high.
Asian stock markets have now closed at one-month highs. Traders are betting that Japanese PM Shinzo Abe can now implement new structural reforms to make the economy more productive, having won a key election victory over the weekend.
APAC Closing Prices:#ASX 5337.10 +2.04%#NIKKEI 15708.82 +3.98%#HSI 20880.5 +1.54%#HSHARES 8703 +1.97%#CSI300 3203.32 +0.35%
— IGSquawk (@IGSquawk) July 11, 2016
Pinewood boosted by Brexit
British film studio Pinewood has emerged as one of the winners from the Brexit vote.
The company told shareholders this morning that the 10% tumble in the pound since the referendum was good for business.
It said:
The result of the UK’s referendum on membership of the EU is now known. In the context of our business, the decline in the £sterling exchange rate is undoubtedly positive for our international customers. We will continue to monitor sentiment around the issue going forward.
Pinewood has played a vital role in the UK film industry for decades. Everything from the Carry On and Pink Panther series to James Bond and the later Harry Potter films were produced at its sites.
Maybe they’ll make Brexit, The Movie one day too (rating PG).
There were astonishing scenes on the Tokyo stock market today, as shares in console maker Nintendo surged by 25% following the runaway success of the new Pokémon Go game.
It’s particularly notable, as Nintento is only indirectly linked to the game (which has sent users racing around, squinting into their phones, looking for the monsters)
Nintendo surges 25% after Pokemon Go launches - but here's why the rally may not last https://t.co/GiWBHbM5gH pic.twitter.com/CzfJ9soM2s
— Bloomberg (@business) July 11, 2016
Updated
Pound down in early trading
Sterling is weakening this morning, down over half a percent against the US dollar at $1.288.
That underlines how the City expect a UK interest rate cut this week.
Robin Bew of the Economist Intelligence Unit is confident that the Bank of England will do something this week:
Our team expect #BoE to ease policy this week-either rate cut or other measures. Early days since #Brexit vote. But data suggesting slowdown
— Robin Bew (@RobinBew) July 11, 2016
City investors are expecting the Bank of England to cut interest rates to fresh record lows on Thursday, to fight the dangers of recession following the Brexit vote.
Tony Cross of Trustnet Direct says this is helping to drive shares up in London today:
London’s FTSE-100 is starting the week with some solid gains as Friday’s upbeat unemployment data from the US and hopes of further stimulus measures out of Japan continue to buoy sentiment.
There’s also the spectre of a rate cut and further QE being unveiled at the Bank of England later in the week which is again delivering some cause for cheer and gains are eye-catchingly broad-based as a result.
FTSE 100 hits 11-month high
European stock markets have jumped in early trading, as last Friday’s knockout US jobs report continues to cheer the City.
In London, the FTSE 100 has risen by 45 points, or +0.7%, at 6636. That’s the highest level since mid-August.
Mining companies, banks, and UK housebuilders are the top risers, suggesting trader are less worried about the global economy and a UK recession.
The FTSE 100 isn’t the best gauge of the UK economy, as it is full of international companies whose overseas earnings are boosted by the weak pound.
And also... the index is valued in sterling (so it’s not at an 11-month high in US dollar terms).
Encouragingly, the FTSE 250 index is up 0.7% this morning too. It contains more UK companies than the blue-chip FTSE 100. Top risers include retail chain Sports Direct and bank Virgin Money.
Other European markets are also in the green:
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George Osborne may get a rough ride as he tries to woo America’s top politicians and financiers this week:
Bloomberg’s reckons he faces a ‘tall order’ to persuade the US that all is well in the UK:
He’ll be mounting a public relations exercise at a time when the pound has slumped to a 31-year low against the U.S. dollar and real-estate funds are beingfrozen to avoid fire sales.
Further undermining sentiment in the country is the two-month wait to discover the identity of the next prime minister, and discord gripping the opposition Labour Party.
There’s also no guarantee that Osborne will have high office once his close ally, David Cameron, has been replaced by either Theresa May or Andrea Leadsom.
George Osborne: Britain must get closer to America after Brexit
UK chancellor George Osborne is urging international investors not to give up on Britain, as the fallout from the EU referendum continues to hit the global economy.
Osborne is flying to New York today, to meet with top Wall Street bankers. And his message is that Britain is not “quitting the world”, even though it has voted to leave the European Union.
He has set the scene with an opinion piece in the Wall Street Journal this morning, arguing that Britain will still play a key role on the world stage. Quitting the EU (something Osborne campaigned in vain against) must mean closer links with the rest of the world, starting with America.
He writes:
The question now is not what Britain is leaving; it is what Britain will become. There are those who want our exit from the EU to signal that we should now turn our back on the world, resist the free-market forces of globalization and become a more insular, less tolerant place. Similar forces are at work in other Western nations.
We must not be afraid to confront them head-on. I am determined that — on the contrary — we now set out to build a more outward-looking, global-facing Britain, with stronger links with its friends and allies around the world. That must start with a closer economic relationship with North America.
President Obama had warned that Britain would be at the ‘back of the queue’ for a trade deal. Osborne, though, hopes we can squeeze our way to the front.
For first time in 40 years, the U.K. will be setting its own trade terms. So we should begin the conversation now with the U.S., and with the members of the North American Free Trade Agreement, about how we can deliver even closer economic ties.
I have spoken to House Speaker Paul Ryan several times in the past two weeks about a stronger trading relationship—and this week I will welcome Treasury Secretary Jack Lew to London to see what more we can do together.
It is now in the overwhelming interest of both countries to do so. We are each other’s largest investors, with almost $1 trillion invested in each other’s economies. U.S. investment in the U.K. is around 10 times U.S. investment in China; British investment in the U.S. is around 50 times Chinese investment in the U.S.
And that ‘special relationship’ with the US needs strengthening:
Our economic trade ties with North America must now become stronger. My message is simple: Britain may be leaving the EU, but we are not withdrawing from the world. Britain will be a beacon for free trade, democracy and security, more open to that world than ever.
Here’s the full piece:
WSJ: Britain Is Open for Business
Osborne’s mission makes sense; this would be an awful time for US companies to pull investment out of the UK.
But he’d better expect some tough questions about Britain’s plans for Brexit, the Tory leadership battle, and the prospects for the pound....
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The agenda: Market look calm, but....
Good morning, and welcome to our rolling coverage of the world economy, the financial markets, the eurozone and business.
At first glance, all looks calm this morning.
Asia’s stock markets have hit a one-month high overnight after Japan’s prime minister romped to election victory, potentially paving the way for constitutional changes and perhaps more stimulus measures.
Investors are still feeling a warm glow after last Friday’s US employment report, which showed many more jobs were created last month than expected.
But beneath the surface, nasty things are lurking. The Brexit vote continues to dominate the UK, although we could be in limbo until Conservative Party members have appointed our next prime minister.
And worries are mounting about Italy’s banks, after Deutsche Bank AG’s chief economist predicted that the sector may need a €150bn bailout.
David Folkerts-Landau told the Welt am Sonntag newspaper that:
“Europe is extremely sick and must start dealing with its problems extremely quickly, or else there may be an accident.
I’m no doomsday prophet, I am a realist.”
Also coming up today....
- UK chancellor George Osborne is meeting with US financial chiefs on Wall Street
- Eurozone finance ministers will hold a eurogroup meeting in Brussels this afternoon
- It’s the Farnborough Airshow
We’ll be tracking all the main events through the day...