It’s late, but Bruno’s brain is still whirring.

Greek finance chief Tsakalotos added:

“I think there is some ground for optimism that this can be the beginning of turning Greece’s vicious circle of recession-measures-recession into one where investors have a clear runway to invest in Greece.

(via Reuters)

Down the corridor, Greek finance minister Euclid Tsakalotos has told reporters that today’s deal is an ‘important moment’ (echoing Dijsselbloem, Thomsen and Moscovici)

Donald Tusk, president of the European Council, has hailed the agreement - which comes as world leaders head to Japan for a G7 meeting.

And finally.... Jeroen Dijsselbloem insists that the eurozone would not ‘go it alone’ without the International Monetary Fund.

If, hypothetically speaking, the Fund found it couldn’t back the package then the two sides would work together to find a solution, he says, promising that:

We will stay in close co-operation with the IMF.

And that, blessedly, is the end of the press conference, at almost 3am in Brussels.

Ah....

Bruno Waterfield of the Times is concerned that the measures agreed tonight aren’t actually quantified. Why not?

Poul Thomsen says Europe can deliver the measures which the IMF has been calling for. He agreed that they need to be quantified, before the Fund can come on board.

The key is that Greece must be able to stand on its own at the end of the programme period (in 2018)

And Thomsen warns that he will not ask the Fund’s board to join the bailout programme otherwise.

Q: When will the eurozone decide the details of medium-term debt relief? Not until after the German elections?

Dijsselbloem claims he doesn’t know when those elections are! (I think they could be in August 2017, or later).

He then explains that the Greek deal expires in 2018 - so if the programme is completed, we will draw up a new debt sustainability analysis.

He also insists that the package hammered out for Greece is truly ambitious, Ministers have “stretched their political capital” to get this deal on the table, Dijsselbloem adds.

Q: Today’s debt relief measures seem weaker than what the IMF has been proposing, so is there a danger that it fails your debt sustainability test?

Poul Thomsen says the IMF will assess the latest proposals (online here) and see if they go far enough.

[On Monday, the IMF argued that the eurozone should grant Greece debt relied until 2040 -- today’s measures don’t go that far]

Onto questions.

Q: What has to happen before Greece receives its bailout funds?

ESM chief Klaus Regling says some additional steps are needed on privatisations, pensions and non-performing loans.

Onto the details....

The boss of the ESM bailout fund, Klaus Regling, says Greece needs to complete the outstanding ‘prior actions’ previously agreed with its lenders.

Then national governments must give their approval, before the first portion of the bailout funds - worth 7.5 billion euros -- can be handed over in June.

Curious metaphor alert, from the Slovakian finance minister:

The Eurogroup’s statement is online here:

Eurogroup statement on Greece

It confirms that Greece will receive its bailout loans, that the eurozone will offer debt relief, and that IMF officials are planning to recommend that they join the Greek bailout programme.

The key points:

Dijsselbloem sounds quite cheerful, telling reporters that this is an important moment in the long Greek saga.

Confidence has begun to recover since the drama of last summer, and he extends his thanks to Greek finance minister Euclid Tsakalotos and his staff.

We have entered a new phase, and I welcome that very much, Dijsselbloem concludes.

Eurogroup president Dijsselbloem says ministers have agreed a range of debt relief measures for Greece.

In the short term, these relate to ‘debt management’ - smoothing Greece’s repayments to avoid any shocks.

Medium-term measures will kick in from mid-2018, when Greece’s bailout expires (assuming Athens complies with its demands).

He also explains that profits which the European Central Bank has made on Greek bonds will be returned to Athens, to help with debt sustainability.

This decision eases concerns that Greece could default over the summer.

However, most of this new loan will be returned to Greece’s creditors, of course, or used to cover outstanding government bills.

Jeroen Dijsselboem has arrived at the press conference, rubbing his hands.

And excitingly, IMF chief Poul Thomsen is there too.

AFP are now reporting that the eurogroup has done enough to unlock its long-awaited bailout funds:

Michel Sapin has also declared that the IMF is part of this deal with Greece, which covers short, medium and long-term debt relief (Reuters reports)

French finance minister Michel Sapin says a deal has been struck with Greece, according to a newsflash on Reuters.

Remember that Zorba the Greek tune we mentioned earlier? Apparently it was played to the eurogroup!

Hang in there.... the latest word is that the meeting might *finally* be over.

Current state of play:

The clocks have now chimed 1am in Brussels, and the eurogroup meeting still grinds on.

We’re expecting a press conference at some stage, meaning ministers won’t get much sleep before they return for fresh meetings on Wednesday morning....

Sounds like Greece’s creditors are still divided...

Oh goodness me.... AFP’s Alex Pigman has heard the eurogroup ministers haven’t reached an agreement after all....

That’s bad news all round, as ministers are due back for an ECOFIN meeting (including non-euro countries) tomorrow morning.....

Euronews have produced a handy explanation to the Greek debt crisis - which you can see here.

It includes clips of the anti-austerity protests which gripped Brussels today (as covered earlier today), and saw riot police use water cannons on demonstrators.

It’s now Wednesday in Brussels, and 1am over in Greece, and still the eurogroup meeting continues.

More seriously, my local pub just rang ‘time at the bar’ :(

Excellent news....

That could mean that ministers are ready to sign off an agreement....

Heads-up! Eric Maurice of EUobserver reckons eurozone finance ministers might wrap things up in 20 minutes....

Bong! It’s now eight hours since eurozone finance ministers began today’s meeting, and just 30 minutes until the Brussels bells chime midnight.

So far, it sounds like they may agree to hand Greece its €11bn aid tranche, but in two installments.

But there’s no sign of a breakthrough over how to give Greece debt relief. At least they’re still talking, though....

Alex White of the Economist Intelligence Unit suspects tough decisions on Greek debt relief could be delayed until after the next German general elections, in autumn 2017.

That may not be acceptable to the IMF, though....

Cross everything....

OK, I have no idea what this means....but EC spokesman Simon O’Connor just tweeted this catchy tune from Zorba the Greek.

Might it be a sign that talks are speeding up?...

Finland’s finance minister has just tweeted that the eurogroup has taken a break, and that these long days require ‘endurance’:

What would we do without online translation sites, eh?

The Wall Street Journal have a great timeline showing Greece’s debt repayments:

Greece’s Debt Due: What Greece Owes When

This chart shows its obligations this year:

Don’t worry too much about the grey lines - they show short-term debt held by Greek banks which can be ‘rolled over’ at regular auctions.

The red and blue lines are important, though - they show money owed to the IMF and the ECB. Defaulting on either creditor would have serious consequences.

Splitting Greece’s bailout funds into two tranches would leave Athens’ a little more exposed over the summer.

It has to repay around €3bn of long-term debt to its creditors in July, which should be manageable if it receives €7.5bn in loans next month (as is rumoured).

Here’s Reuters’ latest report from Brussels, confirming what we’ve been hearing:

Euro zone finance ministers are likely to approve new loans to Greece of 10.3 billion euros, according to a draft statement seen by euro zone officials.

The 10.3 billion euros in new loans is likely to be paid out in two tranches, officials said, with the first one in June worth 7.8 billion euros. The amount and timing are not final yet, officials said.

The disbursement was conditional on Greece delivering on reform promises.

Our own Jennifer Rankin confirms that Greece may get its aid loans in two portions, not all in one lump as expected:

She’s also hearing that negotiations over debt relief for Athens are continuing...

A Slovak government advisor tweets that eurogroup ministers are taking a break.

I hate to rush you, guys, but it’s 11pm in Greece and our dear readers may need their sleep.....

Over in New York, Wall Street has just closed for the night with gains across the board.

Banks and tech stocks led the rally, as investors appeared to stop worrying about the prospect of a US rate rise.

The Dow Jones index finished 211 points higher at 17,704 points, a jump of 1.2%, following a strong day in Europe.

Today’s problem in a nutshell:

Rumblings of discontent in Brussels....

Greek government bonds traded at a six-month high today.

That’s thanks to hopes that Athens would receive the bailout funds needed to avoid another financial crisis.

Bond yields (the interest rate on the debt) fell sharply on Monday after MPs approved the austerity measures sought by creditors. They fell a little further today, as traders waited for developments in Brussels.

Ciaran O’Hagan, a strategist at Societe Generale, says investors are now looking for concrete moves on debt relief:

“The fall in Greek bond yields reflects optimism that the reforms passed by the Greek parliament pave the way for support from the Eurogroup later today....

If there is debt relief, you will see further outperformance.”

(thanks to Reuters for the quote)

The Eurogroup meeting is now entering its seventh hour.

Greek journalist Yannis Karagiorgas sums up the mood:

The Greek delegation are briefing reporters in Brussels now, and confirming that talks are continuing.

They’re also suggesting that Germany is pushing for changes to the austerity measures passed last Sunday.

Eleni Varvitsiotis, EU correspondent at Greek newspaper Kathimerini, says three outstanding issues must be resolved before Greece gets its aid tranche:

EKAS is Greece’s Pensioners’ Social Solidarity Benefit, which is being cut back under the bailout programme (some wealthier pensioners are reportedly being told to hand back some recent payments).

NPL means non-performing loans - the bad debts held by Greece’s banks , which are to be sold off.

Matthew Klein, one of FT’s Alphaville’s many blindingly-bright sparks, has been digging through Greece’s finances, and spotted something rather interesting.

It’s all to do with Greece’s net debt (basically its gross debt minus the financial assets the country holds).

The International Monetary Fund reckons those financial assets are worth just £3bn, a drop in the ocean compared to its debt mountain.

But Matt has discovered that the Bank of Greece has calculated it as £30bn - using the methodology recommended by the IMF itself.

It’s not really obvious why such a difference should occur - but it’s obviously important when assessing Greece’s financial health.

If you have any ideas why, please tell Matt here:

Is the IMF under-counting the Greek government’s financial assets?

Let’s fill the time with some dispiriting Greek charts, via Open Europe analyst Raoul Ruparel:

Brussels correspondent Jennifer Rankin says there’s no sign when the talks about Greece’s bailout, and other eurozone economic issues, will end.

Last time, the eurogroup were done and dusted by around 7pm local time (6pm BST).

But regular crisis watchers will know that these meetings have a nasty habit of running on towards midnight....

Greece’s former top central banker fears that the country is ill-prepared to exit its economic crisis.

Our Athens correspondent, Helena Smith, explains:

While we wait for progress at the Eurogroup, here are some more photos from today’s meeting.

But...

More optimism the Eurogroup’s talks will be constructive:

The story is here (in Greek).

Here’s AP’s summary of the comments ahead of the Eurogroup meeting on Greece:

The eurozone’s top official expressed optimism Tuesday that Greece’s creditors will approve its reform efforts, paving the way for the payout of a new batch of rescue loans that would keep Athens from defaulting on its massive debts this summer.

“I hope that there is full agreement between the institutions, that we can move on in the program,” said Jeroen Dijsselbloem, the head of the eurogroup of finance ministers, as he arrived for the talks in Brussels.

Greece’s parliament passed a bill over the weekend on a series of measures that creditors had demanded. They included tax hikes, more budget-cutting reforms and a new privatization superfund, which will manage almost all state property.

The next step for creditors would be to find a way to lighten the country’s debt load, which mainly consists of past rescue loans from eurozone states. Greece’s debt is predicted to reach more than €333bn this year, around 180% of its annual economic output.

“Greece needs room to breathe, it needs certainty. It’s made considerable efforts, and again this weekend,” said French Finance Minister Michel Sapin, referring to the reforms Greece passed.

On the question of debt relief, Dijsselbloem said there was no appetite for any outright cut to the value of the money Greece owes.

Rather, the creditors are likely to examine a possible lowering in the interest rates and possibly an extension of the rescue loans’ maturity dates, as called for by the International Monetary Fund. There are fears the IMF may even pull out of the bailout program if Greece’s debt burden is not lightened.

“An actual haircut of the loans will not happen,” Dijsselboem said. “What we can look at is the annual debt burden, so Greece can on an annual basis pay its debts. If not, we are ready to help them in the coming years.”

Senior EU officials believe the plans being drawn up by experts to address Greece’s short, mid- and longer-term debt needs will be enough to keep the IMF on board.

“There is a real added value to have the IMF on board, so it is not an option to go on without the IMF,” Dijsselbloem said.

Back with Mark Carney, and here’s our report on the Bank of England governor’s appearance at the Treasury select committee:

More comments made ahead of the Eurogroup meeting which should now be well underway:

And Eurogroup president Jeroen Dijsselbloem:

The International Monetary Fund is using its negotiating position to try and persuade the Eurogroup to make concessions in the Greek debt crisis, says the Centre for Economics and Business Research, and this may be its best chance to push its point of view.

But Cebr economist Danae Kyriakopoulou said:

Cebr warns against premature optimism that today’s meeting will mark ‘the end of the Eurozone crisis’. IMF policy is determined by its shareholders (represented by the board), rather than its staff. Politics matter much more to the former. And there is little enthusiasm in Germany for debt relief which would be hard to sell to the country’s voters.

On the other hand the Eurogroup will be unwilling to risk a crisis that could break up the Euro in the run-up to the UK Brexit vote on 23 June and the Spanish elections on 26 June, so arguably today’s meeting is the IMF’s best chance to use its negotiating power to force the concessions it believes are necessary.

The Cebr sees two ways the situation could develop:

1. The IMF backs off and avoids confrontation with the Europeans. This would continue the “extend and pretend” strategy that has governed the Greek crisis since it started. This would most certainly be bad for the Greek economy, as the IMF staff’s projections show. And, it could prove very damaging to Europe as it raises the likelihood of a default and Grexit further down the line – meaning that debt owed to European taxpayers (including in the UK) would never be repaid.

2. The IMF plays hardball and poses a painful dilemma to the Europeans. This would certainly be risky. A failure to agree could lead to another Eurozone crisis, possibly a Grexit. But it is in everyone’s interest that this is avoided. The debt relief itself need not take the form of an outright haircut. Some form of reprofiling, as outlined in the IMF’s DSA could do the trick. This would put the Greek economy on a more sustainable trajectory but would be costly politically to Eurozone leaders and may lead to political instability in the already-troubled union.

Germany’s finance minister, Wolfgang Schäuble, has just put his finger on the problems over the Greek bailout.

Arriving for today’s meeting, Schäuble told reporters that there can be “no programme” for Greece without the IMF.

However, he then declared that a decision on Greece’s debt relief can only come in 2018, at the end of the bailout. That’s later than the IMF is demanding.

However, Schäuble says he’s “optimistic” that these issues can be resolved.

Back at the eurogroup, European Commission chief Jean-Claude Juncker has revealed that all isn’t well:

I suspect he’s worried about the tensions between Greece’s creditors, after the International Monetary Fund urged the eurozone to give Athens deeper debt relief.

Today’s meeting could become a serious showdown between the two sides, over the issue of Greece’s debt sustainability.

Belgium’s finance chief, Johan Van Overtveldt, told reporters outside today’s meeting that he wasn’t impressed by the IMF’s new call for ‘unconditional’ debt relief. Such relief must always have conditions attached, he argues.

Here’s why Belgium’s workers took to the streets today, from AFP:

“I am here to protest against all the measures that this right-wing government is taking. They are attacking workers, pensioners and the unemployed,” Michel Beis, a trade union member taking part in the peaceful rally told AFP before the violence broke out.

“We are going backwards,” added Jacques Warnier, a protester from the town of Liege.

The AFP newswire are tweeting photos from today’s clashes in Brussels:

They report:

Belgian police fired water-cannon during clashes with protesters at a huge demonstration in Brussels on Tuesday against the centre-right government’s austerity measures, AFP journalists said.

A group of around 100 masked protesters broke away from the peaceful main rally of around 60,000 people in the Belgian capital and started hurling objects and firecrackers at riot police, they said.

Officers then drove them back with jets of water from three cannon.

Tuesday’s protest is supposed to kick off months of planned demonstrations and national strikes led by trade unions against the policies of Prime Minister Charles Michel’s government.

Cambridge lecturer Finbarr Livesey has helpfully tweeted the timings of the best moments of today’s hearing:

Here’s some reaction to Mark Carney’s appearance at parliament today, from Calum Bennie, savings expert at Scottish Friendly:

“Today’s grilling of Mark Carney by the Treasury Select Committee has only helped fuel the speculation on the impact a Brexit would have on the UK economy.

“The build-up to the EU referendum appears to be having a significant impact on the economy as sterling has been incredibly volatile, while GDP and inflation have slowed are slowing.

“Mr Carney didn’t exactly offer savers much ground for optimism today as he merely said the next move in interest rates would ‘probably’ be up if there is a vote to remain, while a Brexit would mean there is less chance of a rate rise. Once again savers are left wondering how long rates will continue at rock bottom, potentially eroding the value of their cash.

“Savers should heed this warning from the Governor and look to the long term returns stocks and shares ISAs can offer, though risk is attached.”

Andrew Tyrie has returned from his little chin-wag with Jacob Rees-Mogg, to wrap up the session.

He thanks Martin Weale for his work at the Bank of England, as this could be his final appearance before the committee. Tyrie cites Weale’s “independence of mind” (which included several lonely, hawkish votes to raise interest rates).

Tyrie then hints that Weale might have another job lined up....

We’re very grateful for your public service, and we hope it’s not the last.

Weale keeps a straight face.

And committee chairman Tyrie can’t resist causing some mischief. He then picks up a copy of the Financial Times, which reports that governor Carney is the most trusted foreigner, ahead of German chancellor Angela Merkel or the US president.

Q: What did Carney make of this, as he enjoyed his porridge, or ‘whatever you have in the morning, when you’re not having breakfast with the chancellor’?

Carney says that the committee had to consider the impact of the EU referendum, because of the Bank’s mandate.

And he jokes that he assumes Tyrie won’t be questioning everyone else on that list.

Tyrie then suggests that IMF Christine Lagarde could “drift by” the committee in a few weeks time, “if she does decide to put both feet in it”. Get the popcorn ready....

Back in the committee room, Scottish Nationalist MP George Kerevan asks about the Banks medium-term view of the UK economy.

Mark Carney says that growth has slowed from the high days of 2013, when GDP was expanding by around 3% per year.

Now, though, it has dropped to around 1%.

Stripping out the referendum effect.... the bigger picture is that growth will move in line with supply growth, which is weaker than it was. So once the uncertainty effect of the Brexit vote fades, the Bank expects growth to return to around 2.25%, Mark Carney concludes.

The committee turns to the issue of Britain’s current account deficit.

Mark Carney says there would be a ‘necessary’ rebalancing of sterling (a fall, basically), if Britain chose to leave the EU.

And that would have an import on exporters, meaning the domestic sector would increase relative to the export sector (ie, Britain would sell less overseas, at least for a while).

However, Carney insists that talk of a “sterling crisis” is overdone.

Today’s Telegraph cartoon will amuse those who take government Brexit warnings with lashings of salt.

The committee then turn to the weapons available to the Bank to stimulate the economy.

MPC member Gertjan Vleighe says he believes another round of quantitative easing (buying bonds from banks with newly created money) would still be effective. And there is still room to cut bank rate.

Jacob Rees-Mogg then gets up and leaves the room, with a polite nod to the witnesses. Committee chairman Andrew Tyrie then hops up and follows him...... #curious....

Q: Why do the Bank’s latest graphs show uncertainty over UK assets falling, just as the EU referendum reaches its height, asks Steve Baker.

Policymaker Martin Weale suggests that it is tracking the support for the Remain campaign.

Steve Baker then turns to the Bank’s [not unblemished] track record on forecasting

You said that interest rates might rise when unemployment fell to 7%, but they didn’t. Then you said they might rise once real wages went up, but they didn’t. Then you suggested rate could go up at the turn of 2016. They didn’t. So....

Q: If the bank can’t forecast its own actions, why should we trust your forecasts? You didn’t even predict the halving of the oil price.

Deputy governor Ben Broadbent says no-one predicted that oil would fall so sharply. Financial markets make their best guess about these moves.

Q: Well, you’ve just proved the impossibility of making major economic predictions (such as the impact of Brexit)

That’s a false dichotomy, Broadbent replies. You can’t say that forecasting is impossible, just because you can’t predict everything.

Just because the future is uncertain doesn’t mean that forecasting is useless, he adds.

[This is an example of what Sky’s Faisal Islam yesterday called the ‘pizza analogy’:]

Steve Baker MP goes next, and reduces Mark Carney to giggles.

Baker, another pro-Brexit MP, tells the Bank of England’s top brass that he positively rejects the idea that they are wicked conspirators.

Instead....

I choose to believe your wholesale innocence, completely unsullied by the grubby politics of this referendum matter. As it happens I think you’re just wrong....

Baker also invites Carney to the Annual Hayek Memorial Lecture held by the IEA thinktank on 8 June, to learn the error of his ways.

You can sign up here: George Selgin on stability without Central Banks

During a long discussion on sterling, Ben Broadbent suggests that the pound could fall by 5% if Britain votes to leave the EU.

Ben Chu of the Independent says that Mark Carney has “doubled down” on his concerns over the EU referendum this morning.

And that could be significant, as opinion polls have found that the public trust the Bank of England governor more than Westminster’s best and brightest.

Ben writes:

The Governor of the Bank of England, one of the most trusted public figures in the UK, has sounded another warning about the instant economic shock Brexit would inflict on Britain.

Speaking in front of MPs on the Treasury Select Committee, Mark Carney, who recent polling suggested is more trusted among the public than senior politicians, said: “Brexit to my mind would have a material impact on growth and inflation. It would be likely to have a negative impact in the short term.”

Following up on his words earlier this month, Mr Carney added: “I certainly think that would increase the risk of recession.”

Mr Carney’s warning follows a stark warning from the Chancellor yesterday, citing Treasury economic analysis, that Brexit would lead to an immediate year-long recession for the UK.

More here:

Asked about recent movements in the pound, Mark Carney says sterling has been tracking the probability of Britain leaving the EU (rising when Brexit looks less likely).

John Mann MP now takes up the issue of the Bank’s independence (or lack of) over Brexit.

He says the external members of the Monetary Policy Committee – Martin Weale and Gertjan Vlieghe – are being accused of simply “doing whatever the governor tells you to do”.

Weale points out that he’s often disagreed with the rest of the committee, by voting to raise interest rates in recent years (before changing his mind).

Q: But why aren’t the external members at the Bank speaking up against these slurs on your integrity?

Vlieghe says he does resent the implication that the committee are under the control of Mark Carney, or George Osborne. He insists that there’s no secretive control of the Bank.

No-one has told me, or asked me, about which way these discussions should go.

Mann suggests that if the MPC’s external members are truly independent, they should speak up a bit.

Perhaps sensibly, Mark Carney declines to comment on the Brexit analysis issued by the Treasury yesterday, which predicted four quarters of recession.

Mark Carney then warns that a vote to leave the EU could prompt a ‘Pavolvian’ reaction in the City, pushing up the risk premium on UK assets.

But it would also be hard to the Bank to stimulate the economy, if a weaker pound drove up inflation.

Rachel Reeves then questions Mark Carney about the implications of Britain leaving the EU.

Mark Carney agrees that Brexit could cause the pound to weaken, creating an upside shock to inflation that would make it harder to keep interest rates low.

If Britain stays in the EU, the next move in interest rates is probably up. If the public vote to leave, there’s less chance of a rate rise.

Deputy governor Ben Broadbent then points out that the UK economy appears to have slowed quite sharply this year - it’s unclear how much of this is due to Brexit fears.

Committee chairman Andrew Tyrie steps in -- perhaps worried that Mark Carney and Jacob Rees-Mogg might take their argument outside.

He tells the BoE governor that many members of the commitee would have been concerned if the Bank had NOT discussed the EU referendum.

Labour MP Rachel Reeves than puts the boot into Rees-Mogg, saying:

If anyone’s reputation has been damaged by today’s performance, it’s not the Bank of England.

Q: What contact have you had with George Osborne about the referendum?

Mark Carney says he has had a series of conversations around how membership of the EU allows the bank to achieve its monetary targets.

Ultimately we can achieve the inflation target whether we’re in the EU or not.

And there have also been conversations about the impact of Brexit on financial stability, and on the mechanics of potentially exiting the EU, Carney says.

Q: How would any directions from the government come?

I’d expect it in writing, and in public, Carney says - he wouldn’t accept ‘informal direction’.

Mark Carney warns that sterling has been hit since November by the single issue of whether Britain stays in the EU, or leaves.

That’s why the Bank was right to flag up that the referendum could change monetary policy, he argues.

Rees-Mogg isn’t impressed: pointing out that a Labour government in his lifetime proposed re-introducing capital controls. Yet the Bank wouldn’t give a view on a general election - but here it is, wading into the referendum issue.

Your comparison is essentially false, he tells Carney.

Now Jacob Rees-Mogg MP, a pro-Brexit MP, takes the microphone.

Q: In general elections, you don’t give a view on opposition policies, so why is the Bank giving its view on Brexit?

Carney explains that the EU referendum is a single event that creates a ‘discrete risk’ to monetary policy, while a general election does not, as policies are implemented over time.

Q: But a change of government is a discrete event, Rees-Mogg gently insists. You get a new economic policy and a new chancellor.

Carney argue that it’s still not a single event whose impact can be clearly identified.

The key points so far:

Next question for Mr Carney....

Q: Is it acceptable for the International Monetary Fund to turn up a week before the EU referendum and give its views? [explainer: the Fund is due to publish its full health check on the UK, including in-depth calculations on the ‘Brexit’ effect, next month]

Quite frankly, I have no influence over the IMF, says Carney.

Q: But is it acceptable?

The thrust of the IMF’s views on this issues is well known, Carney argues

Q: But is it a good idea for the IMF to ‘jump in’ with both feet, at such a crucial political time?

Carney says he’s only expecting to get “detail” from the IMF about the UK economy next month....

Bank of England governor Mark Carney is appearing before parliament’s Treasury committee to answer questions about the UK economy, and his warnings against Brexit.

Here’s a livefeed.

Britain’s failure to hit its borrowing targets last year are a blow to chancellor George Osboene, as he tries to rally the country to remain in the EU.

Howard Archer of IHS Global Insight says:

The upwardly revised shortfall for 2015/16 leaves the Chancellor open to criticism that he clearly missed the 2015/16 public finances targets that were set out as recently as March’s budget – and could well be used by supporters of the UK leaving the EU as evidence that the Treasury’s forecasts are unreliable (although the public finance forecasts are actually done by the Office for Budget Responsibility).

Elsewhere in the eurozone, Germany’s largest bank has just had its credit rating slashed.

Deutsche Bank has been downgraded by one notch by Moody’s to Baa2, which is just two notches above Junk.

Moody’s warned that Deutche’s recent performance has been weak, after seeing profits halve in the last quarter. And it also faces “substantial operating headwinds”, including the record low interest rates in the eurozone, and uncertainty over the global economy.

CEO John Cryan, who has been pushing a turnaround plan and cutting bonuses, says he’s ‘very disappointed’ by the news.

The FT’s Mehreen Kahn explains why this eurogroup meeting is a little different:

She’s also produced this graph, showing why the IMF is demanding deeper Greek debt relief (as explained earlier).

A surge in investment helped Germany’s economy to grow at the fastest pace in two years.

The Federal Statistics Office in Wiesbaden has reported that capital investment jumped by 1.8% in January-March, with building activity surging by 2.3%. Consumers, though, were more restrained, as private consumption rose by 0.4%.

And that meant Germany’s GDP jumped by a punchy 0.7% in the last quarter, confirming the initial estimate two weeks ago.

Economists, though, reckon growth is now slowing....

Today’s eurogroup meeting begins at 3pm Brussels time, or 2pm in the UK.

And the AFP newswire explains why it matters:

Greece urgently needs the next tranche of bailout money to repay big loans to the European Central Bank (ECB) and IMF in July, and has already fallen behind in paying for everyday government duties and public sector wages.

The outcome of the meeting remains highly uncertain, due to a row between Greece’s creditors, the eurozone governments and the International Monetary Fund, over the state of the Greek economy and debt relief.

Royal Bank of Canada’s economics team are quite confident that Greece’s creditors will agree to hand over €11bn of bailout loans today.

They told clients:

Today’s meeting of euro area finance ministers will be focused on Greece. On Sunday, the Greek parliament passed a package of tax increases and reforms along with the contentious contingency to be deployed in the event of the 2018 budget going off track. Assuming it finds the measures acceptable, Eurogroup is expected to disperse the next tranche of programme funds (c.€11bn) which would allow Greece to meet forthcoming debt repayments and clear arrears which have built up as the review has dragged on.

The focus then moves on to debt relief with the ministers set to discuss options for debt relief that have been drawn up by officials as the euro area looks to bridge the gap between it and the IMF on the sustainability of Greece’s debt and allow the IMF participate in the latest Greek programme.