Afternoon summary
- Nigel Farage, the Ukip leader, has described an Operation Black Vote poster depicting the EU referendum as a contest between views represented by a smart Asian woman and a white skinhead (see 3.28pm) as “deplorable” and divisive. He said it “takes us down a root of sectarian politics”. He said:
I supported Operation Black Vote, I want to engage people in all communities to get involved in our democracy but I’m afraid this poster is a really big mistake.
- A Survation poll has shown Remain with a six-point lead over Leave.
NEW #EUref poll from Survation / @IGcom: LEAVE 38% (NC*); REMAIN 44% (-1); Undecided 18% (+1) https://t.co/RuAxr60Qux
— Survation. (@Survation) May 25, 2016
- Sterling risks being “considerably” weakened in the event of a Brexit and could lose its status as a reserve currency, credit ratings agency Standard and Poor’s has warned. As the Press Association reports, the S&P report warned that the loss of reserve currency status could push up the cost of government borrowing and threaten the UK’s AAA credit rating. The paper said that Brexit would be a “step into the unknown” in terms of the trading relationship with the rest of the EU.
- Peter Kellner, the former YouGov president, has said David Cameron is “just about on course” for the kind of convincing victory he needs to be able to return the UK to politics as normal after the referendum. At a Westminster briefing he said:
Absent any eruptions due to terrorism or the eurozone, I would expect, as in so many past referendums around the world, the status quo to gain towards the end.
So I think David Cameron is on course for a 55% to 60% remain vote. But I think 55% is the real winning post because if it’s narrower than that then I think the consequences for British politics are pretty dire.
Once you get a gap into double digits in percentage terms then I think you at least have a possibility but not a certainty of some kind of return to conventional politics.
So I think Cameron is just about on course for what he needs. But with four weeks to go, if you make a bet on what I’ve just said, on your own head be it.
That’s all from me for today.
Thanks for the comments.
Sturgeon sets out her programme for government
Nicola Sturgeon has set out her programme for government to the Scottish parliament this afternoon, focusing on education and attainment.
Promising to harness consensus, Sturgeon expanded her programme with ideas cherry-picked from the manifestos of every other party in the chamber bar the Conservatives: a dedicated minister for mental health, as per the Lib Dem manifesto, and consideration of a young carers’ allowance as suggested by the Greens. One hopes that the Labour idea chosen related to expansion of the ‘minor ailments service’ at pharmacies is not an indication of how the first minister now views the party that once dominated Scottish politics.
Reiterating that education would be “the defining mission of this government”, Sturgeon announced a flurry of summits and appointments, including an International Council of Education Advisers, a national summit on school reform and raising attainment, a commissioner for fair access to further education, and the reappointment of an independent poverty adviser.
Sturgeon also described the Scottish government’s ongoing expansion of childcare as “the most important infrastructure project of the next parliament”, and dwelt once again on the crowd-pleasing manifesto pledge of Finland-inspired baby boxes, packed with essentials for new parents.
Concluding with a passage on empowering communities, she said that - at a time when the UK government is still considering repeal of the Human Rights Act - the Scottish government would work with civic Scotland to establish a set of social and economic rights for all of Scotland’s citizens. It will be interesting to know how this shapes up, especially after all the discussion of a Scottish bill of rights during the referendum campaign.
MSPs are also voting today on a motion to extend future sessions of first minister’s questions to 45 minutes, to allow backbench MSPs more opportunity to challenge Sturgeon.
Here’s another picture from David Cameron’s Japan trip.
Nigel Farage has been hit by leaves from a tree while sitting on the top of Ukip’s open-top battlebus while campaigning today. This is from the Press Association’s Dave Higgens.
The perils of open-top bus travel with @Nigel_Farage near Chapeltown, Sheffield. pic.twitter.com/RL1n7NjNSp
— Dave Higgens (@DaveHiggensPA) May 25, 2016
Cameron says IFS verdicts are 'accepted by every political party'
David Cameron has recorded a clip for broadcasters during his trip to Japan heaping praise on the Institute for Fiscal Studies. He said:
The Institute for Fiscal Studies is the gold standard is the gold standard in independent, impartial economic forecasting and commentary in our country. It is accepted by every political party.
They couldn’t be clearer. Leaving the European Union would be bad for growth, bad for our economy, bad for jobs, and bad for families’ finances.
Cameron may suffered a minor memory failure on the flight to Japan because it is not true to say that the IFS’s views are “accepted by every political party”. There was a good example last autumn when the IFS said that it was impossible for the increase in the minimum wage to compensate people losing out from the tax credit cuts. A senior Tory went on the Andrew Marr Show to say that the IFS was wrong. And who was said senior Tory? (Really, this is too easy, isn’t it?)
Here is the key exchange from the Marr interview.
Marr: I’m sorry to butt in, but the Institute for Fiscal Studies says it is arithmetically impossible for that to make up the cut in tax credits.
Cameron: That’s not right. If you take a family where someone is on minimum wage, when you take into account all the things we are changing in tax, in the national living wage, and tax credits, that family will be better off, not least because you’ve got the national living wage, and we are also cutting tax so you can earn £11,000 before you start paying any tax at all.
Another delicious consequence of Cameron’s comment today is that for the rest of this parliament, when the IFS produces its annual post-budget demolition, the IFS’ Paul Johnson will be able to start his press conference with Cameron’s words from today.
Here are more pictures from the steel workers protest in London today.
An annual average of £16.3bn has flowed from the UK to the EU over the last five years, according to new figures, the Press Association reports.
Analysis from the Office for National Statistics (ONS) suggests that Britain made an average net contribution to the EU budget of £7.1bn per year between 2010-2014 while receiving an average of £5.6bn a year from the EU in credits for the public and private sectors for the same period.
Public sector funding included payments to farmers, while private money was targeted at areas such as funding research in universities.
When taken together with the UK’s average annual rebate of £3.6bn, this adds up to a total of £9.2bn.
The figures are based on data from the European Commission, which the ONS argues gives “a more complete picture of the money that flows between the UK and the EU”.
Operation Black Vote, which campaigns for equality by encouraging black and minority ethnic people to get involved in politics, has produced a poster to encourage people to vote in the EU referendum.
https://t.co/ZPPPpRc4Nb ‘A vote is vote’ @saatchilondon @StrongerIn @LeaveEUOfficial #EUreferendum #brexit #bremain pic.twitter.com/79MjoXQvdm
— Operation Black Vote (@OpBlackVote) May 25, 2016
OBV said the poster, which is due to be displayed on 37 digital billboards in London and Manchester - highlighted the “demonisation of foreigners and people of colour” in the campaign. It said:
The campaign shows that their vote carries as much weight as the other, frequently more vocal sides of the political spectrum.
Many people feel that this debate, whether it’s the Remain or the Leave camps, has been characterised by anger, not much objective information and at times the demonisation of foreigners and in particular people of colour.
Our campaign poster illustrates that.
According to the Press Association, around 30% of the around 4m BME voters in the UK are not registered to vote. The deadline for eligibility to take part in the referendum is June 7.
Lunchtime summary
- The Vote Leave campaign has dismissed the respected Institute for Fiscal Studiesas a “paid-up propaganda arm” of the European Union after the thinktank said that leaving the EU would extend austerity by two years. Vote Leave’s rebuttal tactics have been criticised by some on the Leave side as crude and implausible. For example, Andrew Lilico, chair of the pro-Brexit group Economists for Britain, posted these messages on Twitter.
The IFS - for whom I used to work - is not a paid up propaganda arm of the EU. I hope that clears that up.
— Andrew Lilico (@andrew_lilico) May 25, 2016
Over-simplified messaging, fear-mongering & controversialism are hard-minded campaigning. Accusing folk of corruption & ill intent isn't.
— Andrew Lilico (@andrew_lilico) May 25, 2016
And on the World at One Lilico said Vote Leave should focus on arguing that being in the EU was bad for jobs, as unemployment figures in countries like Spain showed. He told the programme:
That kind of messaging I think could have made all the difference in this campaign ... I just see it as a campaigning failure to put forward simple messages that the public had an appetite to hear.
- Gordon Brown, the former Labour prime minister, has set out a six-point programme for EU reform, arguing that people need to hear a positive case for staying in the EU. (See 11.05am.)
- The World Trade Organisation has said that if Britain leaves the EU, extra tariffs imposed on imported goods could cost the British consumer £9bn. As the Press Association reports, WTO director general Roberto Azevedo said in an interview with the Financial Times that the UK would have to negotiate membership of the organisation - as it is currently represented by the EU - and trade deals with countries around the world. Here is an extract from the FT’s story.
An exit from the EU, for example, would cause the UK to lose the preferential access to other markets covered by 36 trade agreements with 58 countries negotiated by the EU. As a result, to remain compliant with WTO rules the UK would have to impose higher “most favoured nation” tariffs on imports from those 58 countries while they would have to levy their own surcharges on British exports, Mr Azevêdo said.
A WTO analysis had calculated the cost of the additional tariffs on goods imports to British consumers at £9bn, while British merchandise exports would be subject to a further £5.5bn in tariffs at their destination.
“The consumer in the UK will have to pay those duties. The UK is not in a position to decide ‘I’m not charging duties here’. That is impossible. That is illegal,” Mr Azevêdo said.
The only other option available to the UK would be removing all barriers for all WTO members, effectively turning its economy into a duty-free one like Singapore and lifting the protections politically sensitive domestic industries enjoy under the EU. “That is possible. But that is also very unlikely,” he said.
- Former military chiefs have claimed that the UK will be forced into an EU army if it stays in the EU. As the Press Association reports, launching the Veterans For Britain campaign, Major General Tim Cross insisted the Remain camp was talking down Britain’s capabilities. “The Prime Minister and others who constantly tell me to be afraid, frankly, speaking soldierly about it, they can bugger off. I will not lead my life dominated by fear,” the former commander of UK forces in Iraq said. Falklands War veteran Major General Julian Thompson, and former SAS chief General Sir Michael Rose, also backed the drive to get serving and retired military personnel to support Brexit.
- Sadiq Khan has admitted he has no targets for the number of affordable homes he wants to build in London every year. As the Press Association reports, the new mayor of London has accused his predecessor Boris Johnson of “leaving the cupboard bare” on affordable housing and focused his campaign on tackling the housing crisis. Facing a grilling at his first mayor’s question time at City Hall, Khan denied claims he had pledged to build 80,000 affordable homes a year. He said he has not got a yearly target and is instead focused on “building the right kind of homes”.
- David Cameron has warned that there is no guarantee that attempts to save 12,000 jobs at Tata Steel UK will succeed as the Indian company’s board meets in Mumbai to consider bids for its British business. Cameron spoke to reporters on his trip to Japan as Jeremy Corbyn joined steelworkers on a march in London to highlight the crisis facing their industry.
- The Conservatives have received more in donations this year than all other political parties put together, figures have shown. More than £6.7m of the almost £12m reported to the Electoral Commission between January and March went to the Tories. Labour took £3.7m and its sister Co-operative Party another £363,000.
The Liberal Democrats’ coffers were swelled by almost £529,000 and Ukip was given £187,080, the Press Association reports.
At PMQs George Osborne welcomed the appointment of Lord Sugar as the government’s new enterprise tsar. Labour have been pointing out that Sugar has not been so complimentary about Osborne in the past.
This is what Sugar told the Daily Mirror in 2012. At the time he was a Labour peer.
There is an underlying lack of confidence in the current chancellor.
I never rated him in the beginning. I don’t know what his qualifications are to be chancellor, but we need someone in there who has got a handle on the economics. He’s proving too indecisive.
I don’t know if there is a reshuffle but if I were David Cameron I would seriously think about [sacking Osborne].
PMQs - Verdict from the Twitter commentariat
And this is what political journalists and commentators are saying about PMQs on Twitter.
Generally they think Eagle did best, but views are mixed and there seems to be a consensus that Osborne is getting better.
From the Times’s Patrick Kidd
PMQs was more fun than usual. Osborne's bombast cheered his backbenchers, but Eagle, sleeves rolled up, gave him a good biffing.
— Patrick Kidd (@patrick_kidd) May 25, 2016
From the New Statesman’s George Eaton
Eagle mocking Tory divisions in the manner many Labour MPs have craved. #PMQs
— George Eaton (@georgeeaton) May 25, 2016
That was Osborne's best #PMQs performance to date.
— George Eaton (@georgeeaton) May 25, 2016
From the Daily Mirror’s Jason Beattie
Snap verdict on PMQs: Angela Eagle leaves Osborne searching for answershttps://t.co/PNrmYfgKTd pic.twitter.com/WSsuDeHIuU
— Mirror Politics (@MirrorPolitics) May 25, 2016
From the Sun’s Craig Woodhouse
#PMQs: @craigawoodhouse has Eagle the winner over Osborne in today's battle of the stand-inshttps://t.co/INcHoM9XCT pic.twitter.com/Pvo69ufZN9
— Sun Politics (@SunPolitics) May 25, 2016
From the Times’s Michael Savage
I think Angela Eagle just suffered from the #ExpectationGame. Osborne got through that unscathed. #PMQs
— Michael Savage (@michaelsavage) May 25, 2016
From the Telegraph’s Asa Bennett
Definitely Osborne's best #PMQs performance yet. To be fair, he hasn't set a high bar in the past https://t.co/yy8FM6s8Ne
— Asa Bennett (@asabenn) May 25, 2016
From Channel 4 News’ Cathy Newman
This #PMQs is shaming the country. The noise and lack of respect is repulsive.
— Cathy Newman (@cathynewman) May 25, 2016
From the Morning Star’s Luke James
Angela Eagle enjoying #PMQs. Exploiting splits over #EURef by getting Osborne to admit he agrees with Len McCluskey not Tory backbenchers
— Luke James (@LEJ88) May 25, 2016
From the Independent’s John Rentoul
Angela Eagle basked too much in the glory of her 1st #PMQs. No hard Qs for George Osborne today pic.twitter.com/Utzs8CUWsi
— John Rentoul (@JohnRentoul) May 25, 2016
From STV’s Harry Smith
#PMQs At last Osbo gets some quite good jokes in but humiliating Six-Nil defeat for the Chancellor
— Harry Smith (@stvharry) May 25, 2016
From MailOnline’s Matt Dathan
Every time we see Angela Eagle take on Osborne at #PMQs it just shows how bad Corbyn is and how much better Cameron is than the Chancellor
— Matt Dathan (@matt_dathan) May 25, 2016
From BuzzFeed’s Stuart Millar
After a strong start from Angela Eagle this has descended quickly into a stodgy midfield tussle #PMQs
— Stuart Millar (@stuartmillar159) May 25, 2016
From Sky’s Faisal Islam
Osborne's best outing subbing in for PM - neutralised Eagle's good material with attacks on Labour divides/ record
— Faisal Islam (@faisalislam) May 25, 2016
Updated
PMQs - Verdict
PMQs - Verdict: There is a theory that PMQs should be about the leader of the opposition holding the prime minister to account, by asking serious questions and by expecting him or her to reply to them. It is a proper description of one of the functions of parliament, and it helps to explain the approach taken to PMQs by Jeremy Corbyn. As regular readers will know, I personally sign up to the alternative PMQs thesis, which is that it is primarily a forum for asserting political authority, that getting answers doesn’t always matter that much, and that a win can be achieved by the delivery of a rhetorical clobbering.
Angela Eagle takes this view too, and today she delivered a good example of how an opposition leader can use PMQs to taunt and ridicule the government. She focused on Google’s tax deal, Tory splits over Europe, the Queens speech and the government’s record generally. Little of this will be remembered next week, but it was strong, punchy stuff, and Labour MPs will have enjoyed it immensely. As I said earlier, she has given better performances from the despatch box. On paper, her best line was the one about how David Cameron and George Osborne “can’t even get their own backbenchers to vote for nothing without a fight”, but she did not deliver it well, and so you may not hear it on the TV news. But even Eagle at her second best is more cheering for Labour than some of the performances they have been getting from Jeremy Corbyn at PMQs recently.
Osborne was not squashed, but he was not hugely impressive either, and this afternoon is a reminder that taking PMQs is much harder than it looks. He tried to discomfort Eagle by asking about Trident, but she parried that easily by telling him: “We look forward to the vote on Trident and he should get on with it.” Eagle challenged Osborne over Europe, partly so that she could use the line about how Osborne “agreed with Len McCluskey” and not Priti Patel. Interestingly Len McCluskey and Unite are in favour of Trident renewal too, and so in this PMQs Osborne was siding with the Unite general secretary on two separate issues.
Osborne responded to the Google attacks by challenging Angela Eagle to explain what she did about this when she was a Treasury minister. This is the kind of attack that Osborne used against Ed Balls when he was shadow chancellor, and against Balls it worked, because Balls effectively ran the Treasury for many years. But against Eagle it did not work. She was a junior Treasury minister, and no one can pretend that she is is to blame for the Labour government’s failing. It is good example of the value of “clean skins” (or cleanish skins) in politics.
Updated
Angus Robertson's question
I missed Angus Robertson’s question during the minute by minute summary, because I was writing the snap PMQs verdict, but here is it.
He asked about a Scottish deportation case, covered here by the National.
A young Australian boy whose first language is Gaelic faces being kicked out of the UK later this month along with his parents, after the Home Office rejected their case to stay. Seven-year-old Lachlan Brain and his parents Gregg and Kathryn have lived in Dingwall for more than four years and the youngster has even competed at the local Mod in Inverness.
But they face being forced out of the country after their application for an interim visa was dismissed.
Robertson, the SNP leader at Wesminster, asked what George Osborne had to say to the family. Osborne replied:
As I understand it the family don’t meet the immigration criteria, the Home Secretary says she’s very happy to write to the right honourable gentleman about the details of this specific case.
Then Robertson said that was not good enough.
The chancellor of the exchequer clearly knew nothing about it. The problem in the Highlands of Scotland is not immigration, it has been emigration ... Will the chancellor speak to the home secretary, speak to the prime minister, and get this sorted out?
Osborne replied:
The home secretary will write to the right honourable gentleman on the details of the case, but can I make a suggestion to the SNP - they now have very substantial tax and enterprise powers and if they want to attract people to the Highlands of Scotland, why don’t they create an entrepreneurial Scotland that people want to move to from the rest of the UK where they can grow their business and have a successful life.
I’ve taken the quotes from PoliticsHome.
PMQs is meant to last half an hour. But this one dragged on until 12.42, which could be a record.
Labour’s Alan Whitehead asks about a Southampton lettings agency banned for not giving tenants their deposits back. But this sector is largely unregulated, he says.
Osborne says the government wants to increase protections in this field.
Sir Edward Garnier says the Prison Reform Trust published a report saying too many children in care end up in the criminal justice system.
Osborne says Garnier speaks very powerfully. The Queen’s speech addresses this, he says. And the government is reforming prisons.
Osborne says he agrees more needs to be done to help the social care sector. It needs to be more integrated with the NHS, he says.
Bernard Jenkin, the Conservative MP and chair of the public administration committee, says his committee has published legal advice from Speaker’s counsel saying it will be illegal for the government to keep its pro-EU propaganda on websites during the referendum period.
Osborne says the government will abide by the law. He says he and Jenkin disagree. But they should focus on the substance of the debate, not on process.
Labour’s Ruth Cadbury says the government’s housing policies will not help the housing crisis in West London.
Osborne says there is a challenge of housing in London. He says he met with Sadiq Khan earlier this week, and they will see where they can agree on policies.
Responding to Sir Bill Cash, a Conservative, Osborne says he and Cash disagree on the EU. But they both agreed to support a manifesto saying the British people should decide.
Labour’s Judith Cummins says more than 200,00 people signed a petition to keep recipes on the BBC website. Will the government allow a debate on charter renewal?
Osborne says the BBC is a great national broadcaster. But we do not want it to be a great national newspaper too, because we have a flourishing newspaper market and want to keep that. He says the BBC has got the balance right.
Anne Main, a Conservative, asks about the green belt.
Osborne says the government’s plans for more homes will protect the green belt.
Labour’s Julie Elliott asks Osborne why he has changed his views since 2003, when he said tuition fees were a tax on learning.
Osborne says in those days Labour were in favour of tuition fees. The difference is, the Tories learnt their lessons, and Labour did not. The number of students from disadvantaged backgrounds at university is higher than ever. He says Labour’s plan to get rid of tuition fees is completely unaffordable.
The SNP’s Patrick Grady asks what the difference is between an economic migrant and and ex-pat.
Osborne says Grady’s question illustrates how the UK’s special status in the European Union works.
Osborne confirms that Lord Sugar has become a government enterprise tsar. Sugar has told Labour it is fired, he says.
Snap PMQs verdict
Snap PMQs verdict: A solid win for Angela Eagle. In truth, she has given much better performances at the despatch box, but she swung punches on a range of topics, and most of them landed with some force. It was a traditional approach to PMQs and it will do a lot for the morale of Labour MPs who have been given little to cheer by Jeremy Corbyn on Wednesday afternoons recently. Osborne, who was acceptable but no better, tried taunting Eagle over Trident, but she parried that very effectively with a ‘bring it on’ comment about the Trident vote. And significantly Eagle attacked the Tories over their EU referendum divisions, which Corbyn has barely mentioned from the despatch box. She illustrated quite how much potential there is for party-political point-scoring in the EU debate, although quite what this does for cross-party Remain campaign solidarity is another matter.
Updated
Eagle says given that Duncan Smith calls Osborne disingenuous, and Boris Johnson calls him demented, she would not talk about Tory splits if she were Osborne. She says Michael Portillo recently said the Tories did not know what they wanted to do in power. Even this nothing Queen’s speech has caused a revolt, and caused the first defeat on the government’s legislative programme for 92 years. Doesn’t that tell you everything you need to know: the prime minister and the chancellor cannot even get their backbenchers to vote for nothing without a fight.
Osborne says the government has delivered a record number of jobs, and introduced the national minimum wage. She says Labour used to back nuclear weapons. Now they want to get rid of them. The prawn cocktail offensive has become just offensive.
Eagle says the government is in utter chaos. The stakes could not be higher. The Tories are fighting a bitter proxy war. There are now Brexiteers on the front bench, she says. It is good to see the justice secretary here, she says (when it is pointed out Gove, a Brexiteer, is there). Instead of focusing on the national interest, they are focusing on their narrow self-interest.
Osborne says Labour is like rats deserting a sinking ships. Members of the shadow cabinet want to become mayors. When the government said it wanted to create job opportunities, it did not mean for the opposition front bench. Labour know Jeremy Corbyn will be back after today. They face four years of hard labour. A Labour report published this week (the Jon Cruddas one), called Labour’s Future, is surprisingly long. And it says Labour is becoming increasingly irrelevant.
Eagle says the exchequer secretary deals with taxes on vices, not Google. She did her job on that. France is demanding ten times more from Google than Osborne did. Labour wants the UK to stay in the EU, she says. But the Tories are split right down the middle. And it is descending into “vicious acrimony”. Last week Priti Patel called for Brexit so there could be a bonfire of workers’ rights. Does Osborne agree with Patel, or with Len McCluskey, who backs the EU for the sake of workers’ rights.
Osborne says Eagle has confirmed she did not raise Google’s taxes when she was in the Treasury. Let’s have a consensus on Trident, and on having a credible economic policy. He says he backs staying in the EU.
Eagle says Osborne has agreed with Len McCluskey. Iain Duncan Smith said Osborne was Pinoccio. Does Osborne think the public should listen to Duncan Smith, or the trade unions?
Osborne says it is no secret that Tories have different views on this. The Tories said the British people should decide this. And if Eagle wants to talk about divisions, Jeremy Corbyn is sitting at home wondering whether to impeach Tony Blair for war crimes.
Eagle says Labour looks forward to the Trident vote, and Osborne should get on with it.
Given the French tax raid on Google, does Osborne regret calling his cosy tax deal with Google “good news”.
Osborne says Google did not pay tax under Labour. Eagle was a Treasury minister at the time. Did she ever raise tax with Google.
Eagle says Osborne has done some research on her, and that is a compliment. He says Osborne is far too satisfied. Even Boris Johnson said the Google deal was “derisory”. Osborne’s tax deal with the Swiss raised a fraction of the money he said. So why have 11,000 tax staff been sacked since 2010.
Osborne says HMRC has been given more resources to deal with tax avoidance. There have been a diverted profits tax. He returns to the question: what did Eagle do, as exchequer secretary, to raise the tax affairs of Google?
Maria Caulfield, a Conservative, says security must be a priority. So what is the government doing on Trident?
Osborne says he agrees. For 70 years an independent nuclear deterrent has provided security. There will be a vote in the Commons. He challenges Angela Eagle to say Labour will back Trident renewal.
George Osborne says he is standing in for Cameron.
They've met at #PMQs before - and @angelaeagle wiped the floor with him. Here's a clip... https://t.co/8Z6hBZNPeK pic.twitter.com/j6iFvm4JRB
— Mirror Politics (@MirrorPolitics) May 25, 2016
Tory Whip Gavin Barwell in conversation with the SNP's Westminster leader Angus Robertson just before PMQs starts
— James Forsyth (@JGForsyth) May 25, 2016
#PMQs coming up - @angelaeagle up against @George_Osborne - at least 4 Tory outers on order paper: pic.twitter.com/o7W0fmC2wr
— Faisal Islam (@faisalislam) May 25, 2016
George Osborne at PMQs
PMQs will start soon.
It’s George Osborne v Angela Eagle, because David Cameron is in Japan.
The first time Eagle stood in for Jeremy Corbyn her performance was generally viewed as a triumph.
In his speech on the EU this morning Dan Jarvis, the Labour MP, said that staying in the EU would help to keep Britain secure. Here’s an extract.
It has been 64 days since the attack on the people of Brussels and 59 days since the Easter bombing in Lahore. Much has been written about what the attacks teach us about terrorism and geopolitics. The truth however is these attacks told us only what we already knew. Things we have known since 2001 and have been repeatedly and tragically reminded. From Madrid to Mumbai; from Jakarta to Jos and from Peshawar to Paris we have seen that these networks pay no attention to lines on a map.
Terrorist networks have become more sophisticated, combining with criminal networks. We have seen this most prominently with Daesh – where defeating their financial networks has often become as important as traditional methods of defeating terrorist networks. In how we approach these networks, the US General Stanley McChrystal has put it best, saying: “It takes a network to defeat a network.”
And while we’re on the subject of David Cameron, the Daily Mirror is asking its readers to try to help it send him to prison. Or at least some Tory MPs to prison. It has announced a People’s Electoral Commission and is inviting readers to go through Tory MPs’ election expenses returns to identify possible fraud. You can read more here.
Channel 4 News had a good line on the election expenses story last night. It said the Conservative party sent lawyers to court to oppose a bid by Kent police to extend the time limit for its investigation into allegations the Tories broke election spending rules. Without an extension, the time limit in the Representation of the People Act could prevent a prosecution.
David Cameron has arrived in Japan for the G7 summit.
Here’s Nigel Farage, the Ukip leader, on the IFS report.
Another doomsday report today from an organisation receiving EU funding, this time the IFS.
— Nigel Farage (@Nigel_Farage) May 25, 2016
Gordon Brown's 6-point agenda for EU reform - Summary and analysis
Gordon Brown, the former Labour prime minister, has just published a book on the EU referendum, Britain: Leading, not Leaving, and the cover includes a line saying his speeches in the Scottish referendum “are widely credited for helping Scotland remain in the United Kingdom”.
The speech everyone remembers is the outstanding one he gave the day before the referendum vote. It is probably a myth to think that that speech alone swayed a lot of votes, but it was a refined version of a stump speech he had been giving for several weeks, which probably did influence many voters, and what is certainly true is that Brown played a vital role articulating a vision of a future for Scotland in the UK, culminating in “The Vow”. For a few weeks in the autumn of 2014 he was back shaping events, acting like a shadow prime minister.
And now he is at it again. In Scotland Brown’s argument was that the UK government could not just say no to independence; it had to offer alternative, positive vision for the future. With the EU referendum he’s adopting exactly the same approach, arguing for a Remain vote not on the basis of the status quo, but on the basis of what the EU could be like in the future. He set this out in a major speech this morning in the European parliament.
He said:
In a few days’ time the focus of the referendum will shift from the current battle for the hearts and minds of Britain’s 11m Conservatives to an even larger group – Britain’s 14m voters, 9m of them Labour, who are not right-of centre – and to the danger that many of them will not vote Remain but simply remain at home.
While more instinctively pro-European, this group’s concerns are not the same as the Conservatives. They do not think the status quo is to their benefit, they want to know how their lives can improve and they need to hear a positive message of how Europe can deliver for them in the future.
To win in the Scottish referendum we had to do much more than elaborate the negative consequences from the breakup of Britain. We had to set out a positive reform agenda, which eventually led to a new constitutional settlement.
Fortunately there is an evolving agenda for the 2017 UK presidency of the European Union which can make a reformed Europe work better for Britain and show how Britain can lead in Europe.
Brown then set out a six-point agenda for reform of the EU.
1 - 500,000 new jobs for Britain
Brown said these could be created by extending the single market.
Economies of scale, lower production, transaction and distribution costs and easier access to finance could deliver – according to one estimate - 500,000 new jobs in the next decade and will also create the wealth that allows us to invest in our public services, especially the NHS.
2 - Lower energy bills and more energy security
Brown said energy bills could be cut by creating a European energy and environmental union.
Britain benefits from greater competition in energy markets, enhanced interconnections between states and, most of all, as the evolving North Sea offshore grid shows, from new ways of using – and not wasting - our massive but intermittent wind and wave power. The bigger the cross-European pooling of energy, the greater efficiency we achieve in the use of wind and wave.
3 - Action against tax havens
Brown said Europe needed to take action together to recover some of the revenue lost from having an estimated €1 trillion in European wealth in offshore tax havens.
4 - Action against terrorism
Brown said Europe needed to work together on “ambitious strategy to tackle the causes of terrorism”.
5 - Help for communities affected by immigration
Brown said there should be a dedicated EU fund to help communities affected by immigration.
We should also champion the creation of a migration challenges and support fund – a European solidarity fund – that helps communities in which health care, schools and public services are under pressure because of sharp population changes. We know that one of the greatest grievances of the public is that inadequate provision is being made where the NHS is under severe strain and where school enrolments are not met by enhanced teacher provision. A dedicated EU fund would help address this issue.
6 - Stronger protection for workers
Brown called for more EU regulations to protect workers.
Finally, Britain should propose stronger measures at the European level to protect workers hit by zero hours and casual contracts and in particular British workers undercut by exploitative employers in other European countries or operating underground in the UK. Action by the European Union can prevent countries from engaging in a dog-eat-dog race to the bottom, under which the good employer is undercut by the bad and the bad by the worst.
It remains to be seen how much impact Brown’s intervention will have in the campaign. He was very influential in Scotland, but in Scotland he remains a highly respected figure. In the UK as a whole, as he discovered in 2010, his standing is rather lower. And in 2014 there was a limit to the extent to which the real prime minister could get involved, because Cameron recognised his appeal to Scottish voters was minimal. In the EU referendum Cameron is front and centre, and less likely to cede space to his predecessor. But for anyone unhappy about the relentless pessimism of the Remain campaign, Brown has provided an antidote.
Vote Leave issued more information about why it thinks the IFS is biased in a detailed rebuttal press notice it released last night. Here’s an extract
The Institute for Fiscal Studies has received €7.4m from the EU since 2007. It is not an independent organisation, but a paid-up propaganda arm of the European commission ...
In addition, the IFS states that in 2014, 11% of its research funding came from the EU. It states that it has received £4,118,651 from the European Research Council in total and received £792,931 in 2014 alone. This means that if we Vote Leave, the IFS will face a financial deficit of £792,931, or 11% of its income.
The Vote Leave press notice also addressed the IFS’s claim (see 9.48am) that the £350m a week cost-of-EU-membership figure is wrong because it does not include the rebate.
The rebate is a discretionary grant which the European commission can pay to the UK if it so chooses. There is no obligation on the commission to pay it. As the chancellor of the exchequer, George Osborne, has said: ‘It is not a unilateral decision of the British Treasury or the British government to just say, “This is our rebate. We are entitled to it. Pay up”. The way this works and has always worked is there is a negotiation with the European commission.’
The Department for Business has announced that it has appointed Lord Sugar, the Apprentice star and former Labour peer, as an enterprise tsar. In its news release the department said:
Lord Sugar has been appointed enterprise tsar as part of the government’s drive to get more young people to consider starting their own business or undertaking an apprenticeship.
As well as championing enterprise and apprenticeships among young people, he will encourage businesses to take on apprentices themselves.
ITV’s Robert Peston has posted his verdict on the IFS report on his Facebook page. Here’s an excerpt.
Possibly the most damaging statement for the campaign to leave the EU in today’s report by the Institute for Fiscal Studies - on the implications of Brexit for government finances - is one that will attract little attention.
It is this: “there is an overwhelming consensus among those who have made estimates of the consequences of Brexit for national income that it would reduce national income in both the short run and long run”.
Updated
The Treasury has (unsurprisingly) backed the IFS report. This morning a Treasury spokesman said:
It’s a significant addition to the consensus of credible opinion that Britain’s economic security is at risk from a vote to leave the EU, and supports the conclusions of the Treasury’s own analysis which shows a vote to leave would lead to a significant hit to public sector borrowing, of up to £40bn by 2019/20.
Far from having more to spend on schools, hospitals and other vital public services, we’d have far less. This is further proof that we are stronger, safer and better off inside a reformed EU.
Alistair Darling, the former Labour chancellor, was also on the Today programme this morning. He said he would like to see Jeremy Corbyn getting more involved in the Remain campaign. Darling said:
The leader of any main political party in this country, and the leader of the opposition, has a big role to play and I hope that [Corbyn] does more. However, this is a broad-based campaign of all parties and people of no parties.
IFS director Paul Johnson rejects Vote Leave's bias claim
Paul Johnson, director of the IFS, was on the Today programme this morning talking about its Brexit report. Here are the main points from the interview.
- Johnson rejected Vote Leave’s claims that the IFS is biased because it receives funding from the EU. He said:
It’s true we get about 10% of our income from something called the European Research Council, which is an independent, arms-length body which funds world class academic research in countries as diverse as Norway and Israel which are well outside of the European Union. That funds some of the more academic end of the research that we do, and certainly doesn’t impact on this kind of work. But more importantly, for the last 30 years the IFS has really built its reputation on the independence and integrity of our work. Actually there is no sum of money from anywhere in the world which would influence what we said, because if it did then the point of the IFS and the reasons that you are referring to earlier, that we are listened to after budgets and so on, would simply be lost.
- He dismissed Vote Leave’s claim that EU membership is costing the UK £350m a week.
The £350m a week is our full gross contribution to the EU before we get our rebate back, the rebate that Mrs Thatcher famously negotiated back in the 1980s, and before we take account of the money that we get back to pay to our farmers and so on. To have that £350m after we left the EU you would have to assume something rather bizarre, which is that we’d left, we stopped paying contributions and our current partners nevertheless continued to pay us a rebate on contributions that we weren’t making. That’s where you get £350m from. And then in addition, there’s another £100m or so, a bit less than that, which we get back to pay to farmers and so on which we could decide to spend on something entirely different but probably most of that, or certainly some of it, would continue to go in the same direction.
- He said the gain to be had from not having to contribute to the EU would be cancelled out by the amount the government would lose from lower growth and lower tax revenues.
You’re absolutely right – £8bn [the net UK contribution to the EU] is more than worth having, it’s about 1% of everything that we spend at the moment. The problem is that what really matters for the public finances going forward is the size of the economy. Now if the economy were to be about half a percent smaller than it otherwise would have been going forward then you lose that £8bn, because you get less in the way of tax revenues in.
- He said it was impossible to have a better trading relationship with the EU than the one already in place.
I’ve taken the quotes from PoliticsHome.
The Institute for Fiscal Studies has this morning joined the many respected economic bodies saying that Brexit would produce a short-term hit to the economy. It has set out its views in an 80-page report, Brexit and the UK’s Public Finances (pdf).
Here is an extract from the news release.
In the short run, our estimates therefore suggest that the overall effect of Brexit would be to damage the public finances. On the basis of estimates by NIESR, the effect could be between £20 billion and £40 billion in 2019–20, more than enough to wipe out the planned surplus. In the long run, lower GDP would likely mean lower cash levels of public spending.
To put this in context, dealing with the public finance effect would require at least an additional one or two years of ‘austerity’ – spending cuts or tax rises – at the same rate as we have experienced recently to get the public finances back to balance (should that remain the government’s priority). Following this path would also mean government debt remaining higher than otherwise, and additional debt interest payments.
In response, the Leave camp is accusing it of bias. This is what the Conservative MP Andrea Leadsom said last night in a statement issued by Vote Leave.
It’s no wonder people are being turned off this debate given the continuous campaign to do down the British economy from EU-funded organisations. So many of these studies are based on entirely negative assumptions about our economy and the future decisions a UK Government outside the EU would make, but ignore the pressing need of EU countries to continue trading with the UK. They also ignore the very real risk of what will happen if we vote ‘In’; more money and power to a Brussels interested only in propping up an ailing eurozone.
And this is what John Redwood, another pro-Brexit Tory, told the Today programme this morning.
I think the IFS are part of this cosy establishment which desperately wants to keep us in the European Union. And they have on this brochure they have issued today, the ‘UK in a Changing Europe’ logo. They say it’s paid for by the economic and social research council and they clearly buy into this general view that there would be unspecified negatives on our trade were we to leave the European Union.
Here is our overnight story on the report.
I will post more on this as the morning goes on.
Here is the agenda for the day.
9.30am: Gordon Brown, the former prime minister, gives a speech on the EU to the European parliament.
10am: The Labour MP Dan Jarvis gives a speech on the EU.
10am: Sadiq Khan, the new mayor of London, holds his first mayoral question time at City Hall.
10.30am: Nigel Farage, the Ukip leader, is campaigning in south Yorkshire. Later he will be in Bolton.
12pm: George Osborne, the chancellor, takes PMQs because David Cameron is in Japan for the G7 summit. Angela Eagle will respond for Labour, standing in for Jeremy Corbyn.
1pm: Lord Hall, the BBC director general, gives evidence to the Commons public accounts committee.
I will be focusing in particular on PMQs and on the reaction to the IFS report but, as usual, I will be covering the breaking political news as it happens, as well as bringing you the best reaction, comment and analysis from the web. I will post a summary after PMQs and another in the afternoon.
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