Flogging a few Lloyds Banking Group shares to the public will be “the biggest privatisation for more than 20 years,” boasted chancellor George Osborne , trying to generate a warm glow around the grubby business of offering a £200-a-head bung to private investors to own £2,000-worth of stock for 12 months.
In the grand scheme of state-sponsored inducements (think Hinkley Point), the 10% loyalty bonus on offer at Lloyds counts as small change. The potential giveaway is up to £200m if £2bn-worth of stock is sold in small bundles.
But the principle is indefensible. Why should some citizens – those with a grand or two in cash and an appetite for filling in forms – receive a discount at the expense of other taxpayers? Buyers won’t necessarily show a profit, but the odds are tilted in their favour.
It’s not as if Osborne needs to round up demand to complete Lloyds’ exit from the state’s books. The “drip feed” trading plan devised by the Treasury and investment bank Morgan Stanley 18 months ago continues to work splendidly. The state’s stake has been reduced to 12% with the shares sold to institutions at close to the market price, maximising proceeds. The trading plan could finish the job by next summer.
Osborne’s thin justification for pitching the last parcel of Lloyds shares to private punters is that he wants to build a “shareholding democracy.” This is a woolly political ambition on which nobody will hold him to account.
In the next breath, he says the proceeds from the sale will be used “to pay down the national debt”. That, at least, is clear. But, when the country owes £1.5 trillion, the priority should be securing the highest price possible for the Lloyds shares, not messing about with discounts, loyalty bonuses and advertising campaigns. A supposedly careful chancellor is letting up to £200m slip between the cracks needlessly.
Capita strays
Capita, traditionally, is a company that doesn’t do big deals and doesn’t stray far from the UK. Such conservative instincts may help to explain why, unlike outsourcing rivals Serco and G4S in recent years, Capita has not capitulated to management over-reach or skulduggery with contracts. It’s been a terrific performer for investors over the years.
But what’s this? Capita is in a race with Apollo Global Management, a US buyout firm, to pay £400m-plus for Xchanging, a back-office administrator for the insurance industry that operates in 13 countries.
Xchanging’s business sounds like much of Capita’s – dull work for private sector clients. But attempting to buy quoted rivals of this size is not Capita’s normal style. Until a German call-centre firm arrived earlier this year for £157m, the biggest purchase had been a £100m add-on a decade and a half ago.
Capita is a bigger business these days, so maybe is obliged to learn new tricks, including more foreign adventures. Certainly its shareholders seem unworried. There is a promise of £35m of cost savings and returns above the cost of capital from the off. The share price joined the market rally despite the possibility of a placing of new shares.
So, yes, Xchanging may be sufficiently attractive for Capita to break its old and successful habits. All the same, shareholders will hope chief executive Andy Parker makes two things clear. First, that Xchanging’s operations in the US and Australia will be sold to retain Capita’s status as a UK-focused company with a few tentacles in continental Europe. Second, that small add-on deals, coupled with contracts won under its own steam, will remain the first choice.
Reading China
Glencore’s share price may have risen 21% (or 72% if you prefer the whacky world of Hong Kong trading) but take with a pinch of salt chief executive Ivan Glasenberg’s grumble at an FT conference about hedge funds playing games to push down commodity prices.
Glasenberg is a trader and will know that markets do not always behave as theories say they should. Copper stocks may well be at low levels, suggesting the price is due a rebound, but predicting the timing is a mug’s game. The art is to keep your borrowings at sensible levels to cope with all weathers, which Glencore has not.
After the recent rollercoaster ride in Glencore’s shares, there is no harm in the boss talking about distortions in the market and the underlying strength of demand from China. But, remember, Glasenberg also said this in August, before the crisis erupted: “At the moment none of us can read China. None of us know what is going on there and I’m yet to find the guy who can predict China correctly.”