Andrew Sparrow, Jamie Grierson and Claire Phipps 

Election 2015: Sturgeon says Tories bullied Miliband into rejecting SNP support

Latest updates as the parties head into the last 10 days of the campaign, as Labour unveils plans to scrap stamp duty for first-time buyers and 5,000 small business owners come out for Cameron
  
  

Nicola Sturgeon interviewed by Evan Davis on BBC1
Nicola Sturgeon interviewed by Evan Davis on BBC1. Photograph: BBC

Jamie Grierson's evening summary

It was the start of the penultimate week of the election campaign and the race for Downing Street stepped up a gear with a “pumped up” prime minister, big promises from the Labour leader and a interview marathon by the Queen of Scots who could be kingmaker come 7 May. David Cameron took his jacket off and flexed his rhetorical muscle in front of small business leaders. In the face of criticism that the Tories are running a dull campaign, the Tory leader appeared to have a new lease of life, telling the crowd he was “pumped up” and feeling “bloody lively”. But if a letter backing the Conservatives signed by the heads of thousands of businesses had initially buoyed the prime minister, the gradual undermining of its impact throughout the day may have taken some of the wind from his blue sails. Ed Miliband moved to shore up the vote from significant chunks of the electorate with serious pledges on housing including a stamp duty holiday for first-time buyers on homes worth up to £300,000.

The big picture

Nicola Sturgeon gave four interviews with the BBC - on Radio 4’s Today show with James Naughtie, up against young voters on BBC Newsbeat, opposite Eddie Mair on Radio 4’s PM and finally appearing on BBC One on the Leader Interviews with Evan Davis. Her repeat appearances speak to Sturgeon’s fearlessness when it comes to being interrogated by the predominantly English press in this UK-wide election campaign - although granted Mair and Naughtie are both Scots. In her final appearance of the day, Sturgeon took playground questions in her stride. Who would you support in an England-Germany football match? England. Are you the most powerful woman in the world? No. Throughout, Sturgeon remained relaxed and confident as she suggested Miliband had been bullied by the Tories and indicated she would back a Labour Queen’s speech and seek to exert influence afterwards. With just 10 days to go, Sturgeon is yet to be tripped up.

What’s happened today

Poll projection

Quote of the day

If I’m getting lively about it, it’s because I feel bloody lively about it.

David Cameron tells an audience in the City of London that small business “pumps me up” as the election campaign gains momentum.

Laugh of the day

Towie star Lydia Bright interviewed good-sport Ed Miliband, who admits he would be a “boring night out”.

Tomorrow’s agenda

The economy remains centre stage tomorrow.

7.30am - Lib Dem leader is expected to talk about the economy in an early press conference

8.30am - Ukip’s deputy chairman Suzanne Evans and economy spokesman Patrick O’Flynn are expected to talk about their party’s proposals for the economy.

10am - David Cameron will deliver a speech in London on the economy.

That’s it for me for today. It has been a pleasure. Join the Guardian’s election team tomorrow morning, as we bring you the latest news, reaction, analysis, pictures, video, and jokes from the campaign trail. I’m off to brave the Arctic chill.

My colleague Rowena Mason has written a report on tonight’s Panorama with US tipster Nate Silver, who has suggested there could be an “incredibly messy outcome” to the UK general election, here. She writes:

In a BBC Panorama programme broadcast on Monday night, Silver revealed that a model he backs puts the Conservatives on 283 seats, Labour on 270, the SNP on 48, the Lib Dems on 24, the DUP on eight, Ukip on one and the other parties on 16. This suggests that no two parties would be able to form a majority without the help of a third, leading to the possibility of a so-called rainbow coalition.

He said: “If these numbers held steady, you’d have the Tories as the largest party but Labour plus the SNP are more. Even then they are not a majority. The betting markets seem to think there would be more paths for Miliband in that case, but it’s an incredibly messy outcome. There is still enormous uncertainty about who forms a government after 7 May.”

The forecast is the work of Silver and three UK academics, Chris Hanretty, Benjamin Lauderdale and Nick Vivyan, whose model creates a range of options. Those figures are at the centre of the range extending to plus or minus about 30 seats.

Here’s a round up of reaction from the commentariat on Twitter to Nicola Sturgeon’s day of interviews.

Ian Mulheirn from forecasters Oxford Economics

Independent columnist John Rentoul

University of West Scotland’s Gerry Hassan

PA’s Joe Churcher

And New Statesman’s political editor George Eaton

Following on from his demands on education spending earlier today, Nick Clegg has warned there will be more so-called “red lines” before the end of the election campaign.

In an interview to be broadcast tonight on ITV’s The Agenda, Clegg tells Tom Bradby said this is “an era for more coalitions”.

Asked if education was his “one red line” he says “no” but is not drawn on further details.

Clegg also rules out working with Labour if that coalition is going to be supported by the SNP vote.

I can see where compromise is needed – but their sole purpose is to rip apart the union. There are certain circumstances where there are certain compromises you cannot make. It’s a free country and free democracy and the people of Scotland can vote as they wish. I believe it’s up to any political party to say we have a fundamental disagreement and I don’t think there’s any meeting point and we are free to say that.

When asked how many seats he is expecting to win in the election he responds: “I’m not predicting.”

Partly because politics is so fragmented, election campaigns go on, people are fed up with politics and politicians and people are cynical I think quite a lot of people aren’t going to make up their minds until very late on the day.

Tonight’s Panorama, on BBC One now, is looking at whether the outcome of the most unpredictable elections in decades can be predicted in advance.

Nate Silver, the “box office statistician” who correctly forecast the outcome of the past two US presidential elections, state by state, is applying his talents to see what he can predict for the UK on 7 May.

Nicola Sturgeon interview with Evan Davis - verdict

Looking relaxed and confident, Nicola Sturgeon gave another top flight television performance this evening. That’s not so surprising - Evan Davis is one of our more sympathetic interviewers, and there was an evident rapport between the pair. Given the scheduling and intended audience, Davis couldn’t and didn’t grill Sturgeon on Scottish NHS waitings times, as Eddie Mair did so effectively earlier in the afternoon. The main news lines inevitably emerged around post-election cooperation and the vexed question of EVEL (or in this case SVEL, Scottish votes for English laws).

While her protestations about “using SNP influence responsibly” and “offering the hand of friendship” to voters outside Scotland are now familiar to seasoned Sturgeon-watchers, an interview like this also serves the purpose of introducing the First Minister to middle England, and perhaps those wavering voters who may be bounced into supporting the Tories by fear-mongering about “the SNP threat”.

Sturgeon looked anything but threatening tonight, whether deliberately and firmly distancing herself from former SNP leader Gordon Wilson’s description of the “southern cancer” of Westminster domination, or inadvertently. There was a rather charming and very human moment towards the end of the interview when Davis asked her if she was “the most powerful woman in Britain” and Sturgeon looked genuinely embarrassed at the suggestion.

Updated

Just returning to Nick Clegg’s red-line demands (see 17.15), my colleague Frances Perraudin has filed this report. She says:

Nick Clegg has said that the Liberal Democrats would not enter into a coalition with a party that refused to implement its education funding policy, setting out the first of a series of “red lines” which he will announce in the days running up to the general election.

Speaking on the party’s campaign bus on Monday, the deputy prime minister said that the Lib Dem commitment to increase per-pupil spending for two to 19-year-olds in real terms over the next parliament was non-negotiable and would have to be included in any coalition deal.

Are you the most powerful woman in the UK? Davis asks Sturgeon.

No.

And that’s it. A summary of the SNP leader’s appearance on Leader Interviews is coming up.

Davis asks Sturgeon if she is concerned that arguments over the influence of the SNP is stoking nationalism across the UK.

She doesn’t like Cameron’s tactics, thinks he’s stoking tensions. But she adds there a lot of people in England who are not scared of the SNP, whether they agree with us or not. Sturgeon says she bets there are people in England looking for a passionate party like the SNP.

Davis then brings out the thorny issues of football support. If England and Germany were playing, who would you support?

I’m not a big football fan. I have no issue with England doing well. I would probably support England.

Davis is grilling Sturgeon on the “English question” - whether or not SNP MPs should be voting on matters that impact England.

Sturgeon says she doesn’t see Scottish interests in a narrow parochial sense. She said she would find common cause with parties from across the UK on issues such as austerity.

Evan Davis interviews Nicola Sturgeon
Evan Davis interviews Nicola Sturgeon Photograph: BBC

Davis says SNP - particularly Alex Salmond - made a lot of the fact that the biggest party in Westminster doesn’t have a “moral right to govern”. He asks what about SNP minority position?

Sturgeon says it’s different because Tories, Labour and Lib Dems failed to form a majority Government.

It comes down to arithmetic. If they can’t win a majority on their own and can’t put together a majority then why do they have a right to continue?

Sturgeon says she is willing to work with Miliband and others to “lock Cameron out of Downing Street”.

Sturgeon isn’t convinced by Miliband’s rejection of a potential “confidence and supply” deal with SNP.

What he says the morning after the election will be different than what he says now. A vote by vote arrangement is both most likely and a way in which a big team of SNP MPs can wield influence for Scotland’s benefit.

Davis reminds Sturgeon that Labour leader Miliband says he won’t do a deal with SNP and asks what she makes of that. Sturgeon is firm:

He should be tougher and not be kicked around by the Tories.

Davis tries to press Sturgeon over how much support she would have to give to a Labour Queen’s speech to vote for it - 50%, 90%

The SNP leader says she would seek to use influence of SNP to effect change over lifetime of parliament. Queen’s speech just one vote.

Nicola Sturgeon's interview with Evan Davis

Evan Davis is interviewing SNP leader Nicola Sturgeon now on BBC One.

Davis asks what’s the difference between Labour and Tories if she wants the latter out and former in.

I don’t think DC and EM are exactly the same, Sturgeon says. I want Tories out but no point replacing them with Tory-lite.

Updated

Nicola Sturgeon may feature in four BBC interviews today but the SNP leader still has time to tweet our reporters - at the most awkward of moments.

Thanks to reader Andrew Gray who pointed out that Sturgeon has actually done three radio interviews (so far) today, including PM with Eddie Mair.

Mair challenged Sturgeon forensically on her record as health secretary, including a number of un-met targets. The clearly irritated SNP leader took issue with the statistics that Mair was using, and countered:

You can cut this any way you want to. You’re not going to get me to sit hear and say there’s not more work to be done, or that we shouldn’t be improving even further but nor will I sit back and allow the record to be traduced.

Mair then said challenges her on the SNP’s manifesto, telling her that he’s been through it in a line by line comparison with the Labour one and “you’re about as brave and bold as Ed Miliband. You say you’re going to make Labour bolder but your policies are identical”.

After initially saying “isn’t that a good thing [to have policy agreement]?”, Sturgeon goes on to give three examples of where she does differ with Labour: NHS privatisation, wanting to see “modest, fiscally responsible” spending increases in the next parliamnet and of course Trident.

Mair then cheekily asks her if she and Alex Salmond have ever had a row, as a way in the discussing the old saw of “who’s in charge of the SNP?” Mair seems to be having a lot more fun by now asking the questions that Sturgeon is having answering them. She finally interrupts: “If the roles were reversed and he was female and I was male would you be asking the same question?” Mair says he would, it’s not about gender. Sturgeon insists:

I would have the final say. There’s no backseat driver in the SNP.

Two points. Sturgeon doesn’t play the gender card lightly, and has been asked this question many times before. It’s an indication of how irritated she was at Mair’s line of questioning in general that she does so this evening.

Secondly, it’s great to hear Sturgeon’s grasp of detail matched in an interview. This is NOT to diminish any other interviewers, but Mair not only has an instinctive grasp of Scottish political nuances but was terrifically well-briefed and willing to stray off the usual Labour coalition/independence referendum territory. It bore fruit for him.

Miliband has been bullied by the Tories, SNP's Sturgeon says

Scotland’s first minister Nicola Sturgeon has claimed Ed Miliband was bullied by the Tories into ruling out a post-election deal with her party.

The SNP leader made the comment during an interview with the BBC’s Evan Davis to be screened later this evening.

According to a preview ahead of tonight’s broadcast on the BBC website, Sturgeon said an arrangement involving the SNP was still possible if Labour needed help to form the next government.

Earlier he said he was “pumped up” and “bloody lively”, now the prime minister says he’s “fired up” and “hungrier” for re-election than he was five years ago.

Ramping up the passionate rhetoric, David Cameron told Channel 5 News he wants to return to Number 10 “very badly”.

I want this very badly. It’s not for me. It’s for people and the jobs in this country. There are 2 million more people in work [since the coalition]. I want to build on that platform. I feel very fired up by it. I see there’s a risk of going right back to square one. I am hungrier than five years ago.

A new poll from ComRes and BBC Newsnight has found 55% believe the leader of the party with most MPs should become prime minister, while a third - or 34% - think it should be the leader who can form a partnership of the largest number of MPs including those from smaller parties.

The results are interesting but it’s also noteworthy to see that, still with 10 days to go, attention is already moving away from the immediacy of the campaign to what will happen from 10pm on May 7 onwards.

According to the results, more people are concerned about Ukip supporting a government than any of the other smaller parties.

More than half - or 56% - say they are concerned about Ukip lending their support to one of the two main parties in order to govern, compared to 52% concerned about the SNP.

Ed Miliband has thanked his “fans” and admitted he’d be a “boring night out” in an at-times cringeworthy interview with The Only Way is Essex (Towie) star Lydia Bright.

Bright, who is a celebrity ambassador for the voting campaign Use Your Voice, starts off by asking the Labour leader about his “fanbase” and the so-called Milifandom Twitter movement. What would you say to your fans? she asks.

I’d like to say thank you to my fans. It’s really important that time to register to vote has passed, we encourage people to get out there and vote. Obviously I want them to vote Labour but it’s really important to encourage people to get out there and vote and I think that’s actually what the Milifandom is about.

Asked what he would tell Bright and her friends on a night out about his plans to improve young people’s lives, Milibands says “I’d be quite a boring night out” before outlining his plans for jobs for young people, end zero-hours contracts and increase the number of apprenticeships.

The Labour leader is then a bit of a spoilsport and refuses to choose three people - who are not his family or friends - who he would save if the world was going to end.

Updated

Nicola Sturgeon on BBC Newsbeat - verdict

This was Sturgeon’s third radio performance today, and it was another confident one, even if no new ground was broken.

Regarding the possibility of a second independence referendum, she used the same phrasing as she did with Jim Naughtie on Radio 4’s Today programme this morning:

Even if the SNP were to win every seat in Scotland in the general election, I would not take that as a green light to have another referendum.

Perhaps I’m reading too much into it, but it says something about the unprecedented position that the SNP finds itself in that the notion of winning every seat doesn’t sound inherently absurd.

As with David Cameron, who got the toughest grilling of his campaign so far on Newsbeat last week, the panel of young voters offered up nuanced and intelligent questions. There was a particularly interesting one about prioritising locking the Tories out of government at all costs over sticking to manifesto commitments, which Sturgeon argued were not mutually exclusive, sadly without enough time to get granular on which pledges might go for a burton.

Updated

Welsh equalities charity Diverse Cymru has demanded that the Tories remove its name from this morning’s list of more than 5,000 small business owners backing the party.

The charity’s chairman, Keith Dewhurst, appears as a signatory to the letter.

Dewhurst also happens to be the Tory candidate for Cynon Valley.

Diverse Cymru says its name “should not and should never appear on any list of political endorsements such as the one published today”.

The charity insists Dewhurst’s political campaigning should be “independent to and separate from the work he undertakes on behalf of Diverse Cymru”.

Here’s the full statement:

Updated

My colleague Libby Brooks and I are watching a question and answer session with SNP leader Nicola Sturgeon on BBC Newsbeat now. We won’t post a minute by minute account but will flag anything that stands out. You can watch it here.

Updated

Our BritainThinks focus group’s verdict on the campaign

What do the real voters think? We have 60 in five key seats giving their view throughout the campaign as part of our polling project with BritainThinks. They each have an app and are telling us what they think of stories as they crop up.

Here are some of their thoughts on the recent campaigning – on Labour housing policy, immigration, and how the media are covering the parties:

Clegg outlines education demands

Lib Dem Leader Nick Clegg has fleshed out one of his big red lines, the non-negotiable policies in any talks he might hold over a coalition with the Conservatives or Labour.

The deputy prime minister says the next Government must increase spending on education, adding he would not enter into any pact with any party that does not agree to protect per pupil funding from nursery to 19, in real terms, by the end of the parliament.

The next Government must increase spending on nurseries, schools and colleges. That means education spending must rise with both prices and pupil numbers. Without investment in education, there can be no deal with the Liberal Democrats.

Clegg’s pledge on education will be hard to swallow for some, given the outrage he provoked by voting to treble university tuition fees to £9,000 a year, after promising to abolish them.

Good afternoon. Jamie Grierson here. So it’s the penultimate week of the election campaign, I hope you’re all coping with the seemingly relentless efforts of the UK’s parliamentary candidates to win our votes. Please vent, praise, mock and celebrate all things election below the line. I wonder if we can rack up as many comments as Poldark has viewers?

Ashcroft's Scottish focus groups - Summary of the findings

Alongside his poll, Lord Ashcroft has also published the findings of focus groups conducted in Glasgow, Paisley and Edinburth. His report is well worth reading in full, but here are some of the key points.

  • Three main reasons emerged as to why people were abandoning Labour: because Labour was seen as too similar to the Tories; because Labour treated its Scottish party as a “branch office”; and because Labour sided with the Tories in negative campaigning during the independence referendum.
  • The three local Labour MPs were highly regarded.

Douglas Alexander in Paisley was “an exceptionally good local MP. Very genuine and knowledgeable”. Mark Lazarowicz in Edinburgh was “a really honest guy, a man of the people like his predecessor”. Ian Davidson was “a very, very good local MP. When I’ve gone to him with something he’s always sorted it out. But he’s going to suffer for the sins of others.”

  • The participants were not so positive about Jim Murphy, the Scottish Labour leader.

This was largely a reflection of Scottish Labour’s overall brand, since several said they knew nothing about him until he took over. But those who had taken against him either accused him darkly of being a “Blairite”, which was an end to the matter as far as they were concerned, or thought he seemed “angry” and was “a shouter”: “He’s very negative. A merchant of doom”. One observation was that “he never looks as if he’s really that happy. It’s as if it’s torture for him, as though it’s a real chore”. Some did have a more positive view: “I think he genuinely cares, but they are just puppets for English Labour so they aren’t going to change anything.”

  • Nicola Sturgeon was much admired, particularly for making Scotland’s case to the rest of the UK in the debates.
  • There was very little support for an early second independence referendum.

One thing nobody said [the SNP] should push for, and very few said they wanted, was an early second independence referendum. “We need to move on. I think everyone’s acknowledged that”; “I voted Yes but I don’t think you can keep having referendums until you get the answer you want. Apart from anything else, if we voted for independence people would then start saying they wanted a referendum to join the Union. It should be a generational thing, not every few years.”

  • Most people did not accept the Labour claim that voting SNP made a Conservative government more likely.
  • The participants had “a very good opinion” of Ruth Davidson, the Scottish Conservative leader.

That’s all from me for today.

I’m handing over now to Jamie Grierson.

Updated

In the end the DUP didn’t need to exercise its veto as the Sinn Fein gay marriage bill was defeated by 49-47 votes at the Northern Ireland Assembly this afternoon. Regardless of the result, however, the controversy over the DUP and its attitudes to the gay community will reverberate through the remainder of this election.

In his GB poll, Lord Ashcroft also found that Labour supporters were more enthusiastic about Ed Miliband.

There has been little change in people’s preference of prime minister over the course of the campaign. I found just over half of voters saying either that they were satisfied with David Cameron (32%) or that they were dissatisfied but preferred him to Ed Miliband (23%). Just under three in ten (29%) said they were dissatisfied and would rather see Miliband at Number Ten ...

One notable change since I last asked this question in February was the rise in the proportion of Labour voters who say they would prefer to see Miliband as PM. This will be partly down to potential Labour voters who find him an insurmountable barrier switching to another party, and partly to existing Labour voters thinking Miliband has had a good campaign. I also suspect that some who have decided to vote Labour despite their doubts about its leader are now telling themselves that he might not be so bad after all.

Ukip share of vote falling in four target seats

Lord Ashcroft has also published four constituency polls, in seats where Ukip were posing a challenge. They are seats Ashcroft has polled before.

In all four, the Ukip vote has fallen.

My latest round of constituency polling covers four seats in which I have previously found UKIP to be doing well. These include two seats where I found the party in second place to the Tories (Castle Point and Great Yarmouth), and two where I found them second to Labour (Cannock Chase and Great Grimsby).

In all cases I have found the Ukip share down, and in two of the four they have fallen from second to third. Labour are now six points ahead of the Tories in Cannock Chase, and 17 points ahead of Ukip in Great Grimsby, where there was only a single point between the parties last December.

In Castle Point, the Conservatives have extended their lead over UKIP from one to five points since February, and now lead Labour by two points in Great Yarmouth, where UKIP have fallen well behind.

Here are the full figures (pdf).

Ashcroft poll gives Tories 6-pt lead

Lord Ashcroft’s latest poll gives the Tories a six-point lead.

The Conservatives lead Labour by 36 per cent to 30 per cent in this week’sAshcroft National Poll, conducted over the past weekend. The Tories are up two points since last week and Labour are unchanged. The Liberal Democrats are down a point at nine per cent, Ukip down two at 11 per cent, the Greens up three at seven per cent and the SNP down two at four per cent. The Conservatives have now led in six of the last eight rounds, and this week’s finding equals the highest the party has yet recorded in the ANP – though the figures are within the margin of error of a much closer result.

Given that David Cameron’s “passion” is a topic for the day, I suppose there might be some interest in his revelation, on Classic FM, about he proposed to his wife. On the sofa, while watching the Martin Scorsese’s crime film, Mean Streets.

It doesn’t sound very romantic. I’m surprised she said yes.

Andrew Neil’s Daily Politics interviews have been among the highlights of the election. He is almost invariably better briefed than his interviewees, and he chews them up so regularly that a Neil mauling has ceased to become news. But, even by Neil’s standards, today’s take-down of David Gauke over the CCHQ-concocted small business leaders letter in the Telegraph was particularly good. Here it is.

Ed Brown has got an interesting post about the Labour stamp duty policy on the Newsnight blog. He says that the benefits will overwhelmingly go to people in the south of England, and that richer first-time buyers will gain more than poorer ones. It is on the Newsnight blog at 11.58am.

BBC Daily Politics home affairs debate: summary

In a broad discussion that covered issues including policing, immigration and counter-terrorism, Theresa May the Conservative home secretary, Yvette Cooper the Labour shadow home secretary , Liberal Democrat Norman Baker, Ukip’s Steven Woolfe and Plaid Cymru’s Simon Thomas went head-to-head. Here are the key points covered by each representative:

Simon Thomas, Plaid Cymryu

Thomas opened the debate and said Plaid Cymru, as a party dedicated to Wales, wanted to see criminal justice and policing devolved. His party’s home affairs policy includes scrapping police and crime commissioners; tackling domestic violence by introducing a Victim Rights Bill; treating substance users as patients and not criminals. Thomas said his party would not allow immigrants to be “scapegoated” for what he saw as failures by the last government in offering public services.

Theresa May, Conservative home secretary

The longest serving home secretary for more than 50 years said her government had cut crime by a quarter. Theresa May said the Conservatives would reform policing to maintain front-line services and cut crime. Other aspects of the Tory home affairs policy include cutting non-EU immigration, a new strategy to defeat extremism and to restore communications data capabilities. May added that under the Tory-led government, 850 bogus colleges had been shut down. She said hate preachers had been excluded and that while in government her party got rid of Abu Hamza and Abu Qatada.

Norman Baker, Liberal Democrat

“The Lib Dems want to protect your freedom, your right to privacy, your right to protest, and your right to walk down the street without harassment from the police,” said Norman Baker, the Lib Dem representative. Other Lib Dem home affairs policies include specialist drugs courts and non-criminal punishments, reforming stop-and-search, scrapping police and crime commissioners, and border checks to count people in and out.

Steven Woolfe, Ukip MEP

Ukip’s Steven Woolfe, the MEP for the North West of England, said: “the inability to control who goes in and out of our borders creates disastrous gaps in our security” and said without strong laws to arrest and deport foreign criminals, it compromises the safety of British citizens. Key Ukip home affairs policy includes withdrawing from the EU to control UK borders and introducing a points based system for immigration.

Andrew Neil, the chairman of the debate, asked Woolfe about Nigel Farage’s comments that there was “one fully black person” in the Ukip manifesto and “one half black person” in the party. Woolfe responded by saying he grew up with using “quarter caste” to describe himself, yet was advised to use the word “quadroon” by a former Labour MP, and said this showed that language is changing. He added: “we should just get over the fact that we’re a colour-blind party” that believes anybody can get to the top.

Yvette Cooper, Labour shadow home secretary

“Everyone should be able to feel safe and get justice, but 999 waiting times are up” Yvette Cooper the shadow home secretary said. Key Labour home affairs policy include: protecting neighbourhood policing, abolishing the police and crime commissioners, and bringing in a first victim law and a new refuge fund. She said the party would recruit 1,000 more border staff for stronger borders, that migrants must wait 2 years before claiming benefits. Her party would welcome international students but stop dodgy firms exploiting migration to undercut wages, according to Cooper, who added that communities need to be strong and not divided. She said her party would make savings by getting forces to work together.

Updated

Ivan Lewis, the shadow Northern Ireland secretary, has backed the concerns raised by the DUP about the Conservatives’ anti-SNP rhetoric.

The DUP are right to express concern that Tory election strategy and rhetoric are deeply damaging to the union. Through their increasingly desperate attempts to spread fear and division, the Tories are undermining our shared duty to put the unity and integrity of the country first.

In contrast, Labour has made it clear we will do no post-election deals with the SNP and will consider the implications of further devolution in a constitutional convention which will consider relevant issues in a responsible and measured way.

Updated

Here’s a Guardian video with a clip from Ed Miliband’s home ownership speech.

Lord Bell, the former adviser to Margaret Thatcher, told the World at One that he thought the Conservatives would win a majority. He explained why:

It’s worth remembering that in 1992 18% of voters made their mind up on polling day – that’s one in five. Now, if the same happens this time then you’ll get a very different result to what’s being shown in the polls. Normally what happens with undecided voters – again, according to research – is that they fall two-to-one in favour of the incumbent.

Ed Miliband has told PinkNews that Labour is in favour of the legal recognision of humanist weddings. He said:

There was widespread support for humanist marriage across parliament during the passage of equal marriage and across the country, including from Labour. We still support the legal recognition of humanist marriages and we’ll review the law for those who wish to marry with a humanist celebration.

During his Q&A earlier, Ed Miliband was asked what he wanted to be when he was seven. A bus conductor, Miliband replied. That was because in those days Lonodn buses had machines that “turned round the tickets” and Miliband was “particularly fascinated” by them.

Here is the gadget he was talking about.

Nick Hall says that, curiously, David Miliband used to give the same answer what asked about his youthful ambitions.

Jim Wells's resignation - Henry McDonald on its potential impact

The Sinn Fein motion supporting Same Sex Marriage will of course fail to be pushed through the Northern Ireland Assembly. Under the complex rules governing powersharing any unionist or nationalist party can call on a “petition of concern” and state that any proposal cannot pass through the regional parliament because it does not have sufficient cross-community support.

However, the debate coming on the day Health Minister Jim Wells resigned over alleged anti-gay/homophobic remarks could also have potential consequences for one key electoral battleground. In East Belfast the Democratic Unionist Party has been given a clear run by unionist rivals to unseat the outgoing Alliance MP Naomi Long. To do that the DUP has to pick some votes from the more affluent middle class areas of the constituency that usually vote for the Ulster Unionists. These so-called soft “Prod in the garden centre” unionists are socially liberal and normally repelled by the DUP’s moral and religious crusades. While the DUP’s candidate and ex Belfast Lord Mayor Gavin Robinson has a reputation for reaching out beyond the party’s traditional Evangelical Christian base, the Wells furore might dissuade liberal minded unionists in East Belfast from voting for him. Naomi Long was certainly quick to remind these voters of the DUP’s record on gay rights and equality today.

“This is a pattern of behaviour not an isolated incident. It exposes a rich seam of homophobia and bigotry running through the DUP,” the Alliance’s first ever MP said

A Conservative council candidate has been suspended from the party for saying she could not support Ed Miliband because he was a Jew, the BBC reports.

Today's Guardian seat projection - Tories 274, Labour 270

The latest Guardian projection has the Tories on 274 seats and Labour on 270. The SNP are projected to win 54 seats and the Lib Dems 27.

Guardian seat projection


The tightness in the polls means that there are a dozen seats that can move between parties with the smallest of changes.

However, one trend that is stable is the arithmetic between the different blocs of parties: the sum of the “anti-Tory” vote - those parties that would vote a Conservative government down - remains above 330 seats.

This implies that Cameron needs a much more substantial movement in the polls over the next week or so if he is to halve the number of seats that his party is currently projected to lose to Labour.

On the other hand, if the the Conservative leader doesn’t cut this deficit, he may find that he will soon have a lot more time to spend watching his beloved Aston Villa.

Updated

Lunchtime summary

  • Ed Miliband has said that Labour has replaced the Conservatives as the party of home ownership. In a speech unveiling his plans to abolish stamp duty for first-time buyers for homes worth up to £300,000, he said:

The government I lead is determined to restore the dream of home ownership.

  • Ed Balls, the shadow chancellor, has accused the SNP of “total hypocrisy” on the grounds that it favours Scotland getting the benefits from UK-wide taxes like the mansion tax, while it also wants full fiscal autonomy for Scotland. In a speech in Glasgow he said:

The SNP position is now utterly ridiculous. Their manifesto commits them to vote for fair taxes at the top to provide additional funds for public services in England, Wales and Northern Ireland.

But it goes on to make clear that on no account must these changes help Scotland – because that would mean the pooling and sharing of risk and resources across the UK, something to which they are fundamentally opposed.

He also said that a video of Stewart Hosie, the SNP deputy leader, talking about creating the conditions for a second referendum (see 11.38am) showed that Nicola Sturgeon’s claims not to be pushing this agenda (see 9.04am) was false. Balls explained:

Nicola Sturgeon says this isn’t about another referendum.

But her deputy leader - when he thought he was only taking to the party faithful – has given the game away.

SNP MPs will demand things they know we would never deliver, like an end to the Barnett formula or end to UK pensions.

Updated

Miliband more visible during campaign than Cameron, poll suggests

Why is Cameron turning up the volume so obviously? This poll, in the Times’s Red Box email briefing, helps to explain why.

YouGov asked respondents whether they had seen “a lot” or “a fair amount” of various politicians. Ed Miliband came out top. David Cameron scored about the same as Nicola Sturgeon and Nigel Farage.

Nicola Sturgeon, Scotland’s first minister, has issued a statement accusing Labour and the Tories of “treating voters with contempt” on the grounds that they won’t accept the likelihood of a hung parliament.

As we enter the final ten days of the election campaign, it is clear that the Westminster parties have hit the panic button.

Instead of embracing the multi-party election that the public want, Labour and the Tories are clinging to the idea that they are entitled to a majority in Westminster - which every poll indicates isn’t going to happen.

The reality is that this is the people’s election, and voters do not appear to trust either party with a majority. The SNP is being open and honest about our position, that we will work to keep the Tories out and to keep Labour honest.

Estate agents welcome Labour's stamp duty abolition for first-time buyers

The National Association of Estate Agents has welcomed Labour’s plans to abolish stamp duty for first-time buyers on homes worth up to £300,000. This is from its managing director, Mark Hayward:

This could be a real vote swinger for those looking to step on the housing ladder. Scrapping stamp duty for homes under the price of £300,000 would only mean good things for hopeful first time buyers (FTB). For many, hidden costs such as stamp duty can be the difference between being able to afford a home, and not being able to afford one. Our recent research showed that just under a third of house sales were made to first time buyers, and hopefully we’ll see this significantly increase over the next three years.

Updated

The SNP has launched its rural manifesto. “SNP MPs will stand up for key measures like protecting the Royal Mail’s Universal Service Obligation and press for Scotland’s farmers to receive their fair share of CAP convergence funding,” said the SNP’s Richard Lochhead.

Guardian/ICM poll gives Tories 3-pt lead

The Guardian’s ICM poll is just out. It gives the Conservatives a 3-point lead, up 1 from last week. Here the start of Tom Clark’s story.

Conservative support has edged up in the latest Guardian/ICM campaign poll, with David Cameron’s party registering a three-point lead over Labour.

The Tories have advanced by one percentage point on the previous ICM survey a week ago, to stand at 35%. Labour stands still on 32%.

Ukip is up by two, on 13 points, which is their highest with ICM since last December, while the Liberal Democrats drop back one, to 9%. The Greens are unchanged on 5%.

The telephone fieldwork took place from Friday to Sunday, a weekend in which the Tories have continued to focus their campaign on warnings against “the coalition of chaos” which they say would result if Labour ended up being propped up in government by the Scottish National party.

Here is a Guardian video of David Cameron giving his “pumped up” speech at the Conservative small business manifesto launch.

By an unhappy coincidence - at least for the Democratic Unionist Party - the Northern Ireland Assembly will discuss a Sinn Fein motion in support of same sex marriage.

Sinn Fein is putting it forward in response to next month’s gay marriage equality referendum in the Irish Republic.

The debate will open just hours after devolved Health Minister Jim Wells resigned from his post following two controversial incidents including the DUP minister appearing to link gay couples with child abuse.

Meanwhile the lesbian couple who claimed Wells criticised their “lifestyle choice” while canvassing their Co.Down home on Saturday have revealed they have been the target of homophobic attacks. The women who wanted to remain anonymous have told Radio Ulster that their home in Rathfriland has been pelted with eggs by people who object to them living together in the village.

They also revealed that one of the women was a life long DUP voter until their spat with Wells at the weekend.

Updated

Emma Reynolds, the shadow housing minister, has had a run-in with the DJ Liz Kershaw over Labour’s plans for rent controls, the Independent reports. Kershaw, who rents out a house herself inherited from her grandmother, said the policy was “half-baked and doomed”.

I think this is half-baked and doomed, if there is a sense that rents are going to be very rigidly controlled.

What will happen is that properties will become vacant. If interest rates on mortgages go up, what about the landlords buying with a mortgage? Their monthly payments sky-rocket - and there’s no control on that, because the Bank of England decides that - and your rent is frozen for three years.

Reynolds said that Labour was not proposing 70s-style rent controls, because the state would not fix rent levels. Landlords would still decide rent levels, but the government would cap rent increases in line with inflation.

Updated

SNP candidate says no voters were 'gullible'

An SNP candidate has said that some people who voted against Scottish independence last September were “gullible”. Mhairi Black, the 20-year-old politics student who is challenging Douglas Alexander, the shadow foreign secretary, in Paisley and Renfrewshire South, triggered a row in October last year when she described some of those who rejected independence as “gullible” and “selfish”. In February she suggested she had changed her mind, but in a radio interview today she said she still thought some of the “no” voters were “gullible”.

The exact quote is some were gullible, and I think there was an element of truth to that. However, what it is about realising is people are looking for change, they are looking for that fresh start I have just mentioned and the only people who are offering that right now are the SNP.

Asked if it was a mistake to call “no” voters gullible, she replied:

No, I don’t think so, I think there was an element of gullibility in terms of the lies that some people were told. Maybe the word wasn’t the wisest. However what it is about recognising is that people were scared quite often.

Updated

Nick Clegg is on the Radio 2’s Jeremy Vine show. He said the Lib Dems would have a “moral obligation” to speak to the party with the largest mandate after the election.

Lib Dem candidate suspended over nomination paper allegations

A Lib Dem candidate has been suspended by the party, the Press Association reports.

A Liberal Democrat general election candidate has been suspended by the party over allegations that he falsified his council nomination papers.

Patrick Haveron, also the parliamentary candidate for South West Surrey, has been accused of falsifying his papers for the Waverley Borough Council election.

But because nominations have closed he will still appear on both ballot papers as a Lib Dem, even though the party have disowned him.

The Lib Dems stressed that Haveron will not represent the party in either the parliamentary or Waverley Borough Council elections.

A party spokesman said: “Patrick Haveron has been suspended by the party pending the outcome of investigations into his nomination papers for the Waverley Borough Council election.

“He has been suspended from the Liberal Democrats and no longer represents the Liberal Democrats in either election.”

And here are more details from the TNS poll from Scotland that I mentioned earlier. (See 11.26am.) This is from the TNS news release.

A new TNS poll in Scotland shows no sign of the gap between the SNP and Labour decreasing, with voter intention as follows:

    • SNP 54% (+2), Lab 22% (-2), Con 13% (0), LD 6% (0), Green 2% (-1), UKIP 2% (+1)

The survey of 1003 adults in Scotland reveals that over two thirds (67%) say they are certain to vote. This is higher than the rest of the UK, where 62% said they would definitely vote in the most recent TNS UK-wide poll. Indeed, SNP supporters are most likely to say they are certain to vote (82%).

Among those certain to vote, almost one in three (29%) remain undecided, a much higher proportion than was evident at this stage of the run-up to the independence referendum.

The survey also asked respondents who they thought would try to get the best deal for Scotland at Westminster. Over two fifths (42%) favoured Nicola Sturgeon, with her opponents some way behind: Murphy 8%, Cameron 7%, Salmond 6%, Miliband 3%.

Populus poll gives Labour 3-pt lead

Populus has released a new poll it has carried out for the FT. Here is the FT write-up (subscription).

Labour is three points ahead of the Conservatives, according to a new poll by Populus which suggests that Tory attacks on Ed Miliband’s party have so far failed to dent his lead ...

But with only 10 days until polling day Labour is still at 36 per cent against the Tories’ 33 per cent, according to the poll by Populus, carried out between April 24 and 26. That is a slightly bigger lead than Labour’s 2 point advantage a week earlier ...

Populus still has Ukip on 14 per cent, far ahead of the Liberal Democrats on 8 per cent and the Green party on 5 per cent.

Q: [From the FT’s George Parker] The FT is reporting today that the government would oppose a potential takeover of BP. What would your view be?

Miliband says he has not seen that story. But Labour has set out its thinking on takeovers.

Q: [From the Telegraph] Shares in some housebuilding firms fell today on the back of your announcement. Are you worried about that? And what do you say to shareholders?

Miliband says Labour’s plans will be better for house buyers, and for builders too. By common consent, the Labour plan from Michael Lyons is seen as the best way to encourage more house building. There are problems with the market that need to be addressed, he says.

Updated

In his Q&A Ed Miliband is now talking about the DUP warning about the Conservative anti-SNP election tactics.

The union is very important, says Miliband. We should concentrate on what unites us, not what divides us.

Guardian events are holding an election night special, on the Friday after the election. It will be hosted by Jonathan Freedland with a rotating panel featuring Polly Toynbee, Hugh Muir, Owen Jones, Matthew d’Ancona, Deborah Orr, Rafael Behr, Gaby Hinsliff and Guardian pollster Alberto Nardelli. The full details are here.

Q: Will Labour match the Conservative pledge to create another 2m jobs?

Miliband says this is a figure plucked out of the air. The Conservatives have no idea how they will achieve this.

He says we need to create jobs. But they have to be high-paid jobs, he says.

Q: You will give first-time buyers living locally the first call on buying home. That sounds like a way of stopping immigrants from buying homes.

Some Labour supporters in the audience boo. Miliband asks them not to; the journalists are doing their job, he says.

He says the problem is that sometimes local people are being outbid by people paying cash for homes.

And, if local people won’t benefit, councils won’t grant planning permission.

So this is a plan to help local people.

Updated

Miliband's Q&A

Miliband is now taking questions from journalists. There is a live feed on the BBC website.

Q: In Birmingham a few weeks ago you unveiled your five election priorities. You have now added housing. Is this a sign of panic?

Miliband says, when opponents cannot criticise a policy, they ask why it is being unveiled now.

What matters is that Labour has positive ideas to change the country, he says.

The Conservatives used to be the party of home ownership. But that is not true anymore, he says.

Voters will be more interested in what the policy means for them.

Updated

Here’s today’s Guardian three-minute election video. Hugh Muir and Simon Jenkins are discussing whether David Cameron is on his way out.

More on David Cameron’s “passion” strategy. I thought angry Cameron would probably go down quite well on television (see 11.23am), but Joey Jones, Sky’s deputy political editor, disagrees.

Balls says Hosie video confirms that SNP planning a second independence referendum

As Ed Miliband speaks, Ed Balls and Jim Murphy are winding up an event in Glasgow.

They have been highlighting comments from Stewart Hosie, the SNP deputy leader, which you can watch in this YouTube clip.

In it, Hosie talks about how the SNP could demand further devolution after the election and then, when the Westminster parties refuse, use that as a springboard for a second referendum.

And remember this, 25% of those who voted no, did so with the best of intentions to get maximum devolution, that means everything apart from defence and foreign affairs. It is that we will hold Westminster to. You see we expect them to disappoint us, but when they start to disappoint substantial numbers of people who voted no, then there’s a game-changer for what happens on the road to independence.

Ed Balls said this showed how they SNP were not being honest about their intentions and that, despite what Nicola Sturgeon said on the Today programme this morning, they were planning a second referendum.

Ed Miliband is speaking in Stockton South now. He is giving a speech on living standards.

He says Boris Johnson was defending “state-sponsored tax avoidance” on the Andrew Marr show. But Labour will be the first government for 200 years to abolish non-dom status, he says.

Here is some interesting polling from Scotland.

Cameron's speech - Summary and analysis

David Cameron has found an extra gear. After complaints about the lacklustre nature of the Conservative campaign reached a crescendo at the weekend, Cameron has managed to re-energise himself. We saw that yesterday, and the new, pumped-up, no-jacket, slightly sweary passion candidate was on stage again this morning. Journalists are using the hashtags #passion #fierycam and - a bit more cynically, but not inaccurately - #essaycrisis.

Here are some of the quotes, although it was a speech that you really had to hear to get the full effect. He was not speaking from a text.

When I hold those receptions at Downing Street and when I get the people who got start-up loans coming into Downing Street and telling me what they’ve done, often giving up a well-paid career, taking a risk, having a punt, having a go, that pumps me up ...

It’s decision time – that’s what pumps me up ...

To all those people at home who are thinking how to make that choice in the next 10- days time, I would say this. Those of you who’ve worked hard, those of you who’ve put in, those of you who want to build something, you have been in a fight. You have fought for jobs, you have fought for our recovery, you kept people on in the difficult times, your are building this country, you fought for Britain and I will always fight for you, as your prime minister, knowing the economy comes first. There is nothing without a strong economy.

There were some half-newsy lines in the speech.

  • Cameron said the economy was the key issue in the campaign, and that as people voted they should ask themselves: Do you trust Labour on the economy.
  • He said the Tories had discovered a “magic formula” for economic revival. Other EU countries were jealous of the fact Britain has created 2m jobs, he said.
  • He mocked Ed Miliband for using an American coach who had taught him to use Americanisms like “hell, yes”.

But the key point is not what Cameron said, but how he said it.

Was it effective? Some journalists are sceptical.

But even though Cameron may have failed to enthuse the commentariat, that might not matter very much. Most people will just see a clip from the speech on the news (if that) and, if they do, they will see a figure who, finally, is looking like someone who actually wants to win the election.

Updated

The leader of the Ulster Unionist Party Mike Nesbitt has said Jim Wells’ resignation as regional health minister was “the right thing to do”

Nesbitt said the job of being in charge of the local health service “was far too important” for a minister embroiled in the anti-gay controversy.

His party is in the unique and unusual position of being both the DUP’s allies and rival depending in what constituency you happen to be in across Northern Ireland. In North Belfast, East Belfast and Fermanagh/South Tyrone Nesbitt’s UUP is in an anti-nationalist alliance with the DUP.

The UUP has stood aside in the two Belfast city constituencies to give the DUP a free run to defend one seat against Sinn Fein while attempting to wrestle another off the Alliance Party. In Fermanagh/South Tyrone the UUP’s Tom Elliott is the sole unionist standard bearer with the DUP stepping aside in the border area.

Yet the Wells furore has prompted a number of Ulster Unionist sources to contact the Guardian today claiming that in other electoral battlegrounds his remarks might swing some middle class, relatively liberal unionist voters back to the UUP. They point to Upper Bann - once the seat held by Nobel peace prize winner David Trimble - as an example of this possible shift. One Ulster Unionist veteran said the party’s candidate Joanne Dobson was “closing in” on the outgoing DUP MP David Simpson and has a chance of winning the seat back for the Ulster Unionists.

Updated

The Cameron event is now over.

In his final answer he referred to a note from Peter Mandelson about the impact of the SNP on a minority Labour government. (See 10.36am.) He was talking about a briefing note from Mandelson’s firm, Global Counsel, about the strategy the SNP may follow after the election. I’ve put the two key sentences in bold, but I’ve quoted a larger chunk, because it is relatively interesting.

Sustaining Labour in power would provide the SNP with alternative means to push deeper the wedge between Scotland and England ...

The SNP would be able to do this in three principle ways. The first, and most immediate, would be to harden the terms of the Scotland bill that must go through parliament soon after the election ....

The second is to pull the Labour party to the left, away from the centre ground of English politics. This will include pushing Labour towards higher public spending. In addition, the SNP will intervene in some high-profile policy areas, such as by attempting to block the replacement of the Trident nuclear fleet. This is much less likely to succeed, because a Conservative opposition would support it, but the SNP would still regard it as a political victory if it forced Labour to rely on Conservative votes to push this through.

The third way the SNP will drive a deeper political wedge is by exposing anomalies and making mischief with the UK constitution, specifically on the issue of English votes for English laws. Labour has much to lose as it has historically found it harder to win a majority of English seats than the Conservatives. But the SNP will judge it has much to gain over the long term, even if the immediate effect is to reduce the power of Scottish MPs in Westminster. The SNP will calculate that it will be easier for Scotland to separate from England if England moves away from Scotland, even if only in small steps. The SNP may seek to provoke this by being seen to be decisive in votes that impact most directly on England, knowing this will encourage the Conservatives in opposition to pursue the English votes issue.

UPDATE: Global Counsel tell me that the note was written, not by Lord Mandelson, but by Global Counsel’s chief economist Gregor Irwin, previously chief economist at the Foreign Office and before that a senior official at the Bank of England.

Updated

Q: What is your reaction to Len McCluskey’s comments?

Cameron says Labour want more borrowing, more spending, more tax and more welfare. And the SNP want even more of that.

Peter Mandelson has written a note confirming this, he says.

There is an answer to this, he says: elect a Conservative government.

Cameron says he will work “the hardest I have ever worked in my life” over the next 10 days to ensure this happens because there is so much on the line.

UPDATE AT 10.43AM: The note was not actually written by Mandelson. See 10.43am.

Updated

Q: Will you admit that your campaign lacked passion previously?

Cameron says the Conservatives often do not wear their passion on their sleeves. But don’t mistake that for thinking that they are not passionate.

He wants election victory for the sake of people who rely on on the economy.

Don’t mistake this for an unimportant election, he says.

If you want risk, vote for the other guys.

Cameron says stability and security mean businesses can expand.

Cameron says people should not vote for the Lib Dems thinking they will probably get Cameron. They won’t. They will probably get Ed Miliband.

And people should not vote Ukip just because Cameron may have annoyed them.

Cameron says what pumps him up is that “it’s decision time”.

Countries in Europe are jealous of the fact that we have 2m more jobs. We have a “magic formula”. Now we have to build on that, he says.

Under Labour, we would go back to square one.

Why is he so certain? Because Labour opposed almost all the tough decisions taken by the government.

And today Len McCluskey, who pratically owns the Labour party, is saying Labour should do a deal with the SNP.

Updated

Q: Is this your response to Ed Miliband’s “hell, yes” moment?

Cameron says he prefers to speak in plain English, rather than American learned from a coach.

If he sounds lively about all this, it is because he feels lively about it, he says.

Cameron's Q&A

Cameron is now taking questions.

Q: I don’t know what you had for breakfast ...

Porridge, says Cameron.

Q: You are turning up the passion. But have you left it to late?

Cameron says the only poll that matters is the one next week. People can now see what is at stake. Do we take the achievements of the last five years, and build on them? Or do we go back to square one.

As you go to vote, or fill in your postal vote, ask yourself one thing, Cameron says: Do you trust Labour on the economy?

  • Cameron says key question in the election is whether you can trust Labour on the economy.

Updated

Cameron is winding up his speech now.

Sean Kemp, a former Lib Dem adviser, is a bit sceptical of the passion outburst.

Cameron says passion for business pumps him up

David Cameron is giving a speech in London launching the Conservative’s small business manifesto. There is a live feed on the BBC parliament channel, and on the BBC website.

Like yesterday, Cameron is noticeably more energised than he has been in other speeches during the campaign. And like yesterday, he is speaking off the cuff, rather than using a text.

Lib Dems privately admit they're aiming for 30-odd seats

As the Liberal Democrat battle bus makes its way to Eastleigh, a senior party source has been briefing journalists on why the constituency provides a good example of how the party can defy the odds in next week’s election.

“We won the byelection in Eastleigh in, it’s fair to say, some quite difficult circumstances. The MP had just gone to jail, so that’s never good,” they said.

“There was a scandal running on the news in the evenings. Difficulties for us with the coalition government were evident. Things like tuition fees were bigger than they now are and, despite all of these things, we won.”

The party source admitted that the Lib Dems were aiming to get 30-odd seats: “Everything’s so marginal. We need to get into the 30s and then the other parties need to sort themselves out and we’ll see what the answer is.”

“I would like to say 150, but I think in fairness you wouldn’t believe me,” the source added.

“There are lots of marginal seats. There’s a marginal outcome in 40 seats for us and if we won every one of those marginal contests we would get to 40-odd.”

The source repeated the claim, central to the party’s campaign, that the Lib Dems would out-perform the polling, which currently has them on around 8% of the vote, behind Ukip on 14%.

The source referred to research from Lord Ashcroft which suggests that the Lib Dems do better than the other parties in marginal seats. “The reason we’re coming to Eastleigh today is so that we can demonstrate why this is the case, because it’s not by accident.”

The party has the infrastructure to deliver a heavy “ground war campaign,” the source said, boasting that they had distributed 50m pieces of literature in the 50 seats they take most seriously since December.

As the campaign nears its end, the focus of the party’s election campaign is narrowing in on around ten marginal seats, the source said. “As each day goes by you marrow your focus to the most marginal place where you get the best return on investment.”

Updated

Tories dismiss Labour's stamp duty abolition for first-time buyers as unfunded gimmick

It is unusual to get firm policy announcements at this stage in an election campaign, but Labour have produced one - the abolition of stamp duty for first-time buyers on homes worth up to £300,000.

The Conservatives have dismissed this as a gimmick. This is from a party spokesman:

This panicky, unfunded announcement is something Labour have tried before – and it failed. Coming from the people who crashed the housing market and repeatedly raised stamp duty, this won’t distract from Ed Miliband’s inability to say what deals he will make with the SNP to prop him up in Downing Street.

In contrast to Ed Miliband’s gimmicks, because of our balanced economic plan, we’ve been able to deliver lasting reforms - cutting stamp duty for 98% of people who would have paid it.

In a briefing note, the Tories say the policy would cost more than £500m, not the £225m Labour say.

They also say the scheme is similar to a stamp duty relief scheme for first-time buyers introduced by Labour at the end of its time in office. An HMRC analysis said that policy did not have “a significant impact on improving affordability for first-time buyers”, the Tories say.

Updated

YouGov poll gives Labour 1-pt lead

Here are today’s YouGov GB polling figures.

Natalie Bennett cancels housing policy speech because she's lost her voice

The Green party is today promoting its housing policies. It says it would scrap right to buy, introduce rent controls, pegging annual rent increases in the private sector to CPI inflation, and set up a living rent commission to “investigate ways to bring rent levels down”.

Natalie Bennett, the Green party leader, was due to be giving a speech on these plans, but it has been cancelled because she has lost her voice.

But here’s the statement she put out.

The Green party believes a house should be a home, not an asset for investors.

At the moment, the private rental market is structured in a way that benefits landlords over tenants, and treats homes as investment vehicles. As more people rent, rather than own, their homes, it is vital that we correct this imbalance.

Keeping rent rises in line with inflation will reduce poverty and allow tenants a better standard of living. We also need to look into all options for cutting rent. That’s why we’re calling for a living rent commission to tackle our housing crisis.

The Conservative letter in the Telegraph from 5,000 small business owners backing the Tories has received unexpected criticism - from the political editor of the Tory-supporting Sun.

Tory sources suggest Newton Dunn might be just unhappy about the fact that the the party did not hand the story to the Sun.

Here’s Michael Fallon, the Conservative defence secretary, on Nicola Sturgeon’s comments on Today.

When Ed Miliband’s biggest union paymaster is saying that he will be forced to do deals with the SNP, it’s no surprise that Nicola Sturgeon knows she will be pulling Ed Miliband’s strings if he gets into Downing Street.

I did not see a lot of Twitter comment on the Nicola Sturgeon interview on Today, but the comments I have seen from journalists are very positive. Here are three of them.

From the BBC’s Jonny Dymond

From Bloomberg’s Svenja O’Donnell

From the Scottish journalist Ruth Wishart

Nicola Sturgeon's Today interview - Summary and analysis

Gradually, it is becoming clearer and clearer exactly how a minority Labour government might operate with SNP support. Nicola Sturgeon, the SNP leader, and Ed Miliband, the Labour leader, have been answering endless questions about this, and each time the fog of uncertainty gets a little thinner. After Sturgeon’s Today interview, I think the picture is fairly clear.

Here are the key points.

  • Sturgeon indicated that the SNP would support a minority Labour government on confidence votes, but that on business it would expect Labour to “talk and compromise”. The SNP would not do anything to put the Tories in power, she said.

I have said that we would not do anything that would help to put the Conservatives into power. And therefore, if there is an anti-Tory majority, we want to work with Labour and other anti-Tory parties to make sure the Tories are locked out of Downing Street.

That seems to be a clear indication that, in any confidence motion that could bring down Labour, the SNP would vote for Miliband. But, on everthing else, there would have to be compromise, she said.

Exercising influence in a parliament is not just about the Queen’s speech. It is about how you exercise influence on an issue by issue, vote by vote basis through the entirety of a parliament ...

Ed Miliband can say what he wants right now. But he can’t deny reality. And if there is situation after the election where neither of the big parties has a majority, then they will have to reflect how people voted and they will have to, on a practical level, be prepared to talk to and to compromise with others in order to get their policies through.

  • She indicated that she personally would take charge of such compromise talks, depsite not being an MP.
  • She dismissed the charge that the SNP wanted the Tories to succeed because that would increase support for independence. When it was put to her that the SNP had a vested interest in the Tories triumphing at Westminster, she replied:

You can take a very cynical view and say that we are driven purely by narrow party political interest. Actually, I’m not. I believe in independence ... but fundamentally, first and foremost, what drives me are the interests of the Scottish people. And it is not in the interests of the Scottish people to have a Tory government.

The SNP would act “positively and constructively” at Westminster, in the interests not just of Scotland, but of the whole of the UK, she said. It was offering “the hand of friendship” to other parts of the UK.

  • She rejected claims that she wanted a second independence referendum as quickly as possible. Asked if that was what she wanted, she replied:

No, I don’t. I want to make sure that that decision is driven by what people in Scotland want.

I have said clearly that I condemn remarks like that and I will continue to do so ... The voters will pass their verdict on him. I lead by example in terms of the tone I expect to be set.

Updated

Q: What do you expect to happen at the election?

Sturgeon says the election could herald an age of multi-party politics. That would be a breath of fresh air, she says.

And that’s it. I’ll post a summary soon.

Q: Do you want a second referendum as quickly as you can?

No, says Sturgeon. That decision must be driven by the views of the people of Scotland.

Q: You don’t want the UK to have sovereignty over Scotland. Why should anyone think you want it to work?

That is a fair question, says Sturgeon.

Scotland remains part of the Westminster system. As long as Westminster decisions affect Scotland, it matters to Scotland to ensure those are good decisions. The SNP has a vested interest in that.

Q: Some might say you have a vested interest in having the Tories in power, because that would boost your support.

Sturgeon says she is not that cynical. The SNP will act in the interests of the Scottish people. Having a Tory government would not be in their interests.

Q: Your candidates say different things. A candidate in Paisley said the SNP rope in Westminster would be the rope the other parties were hung on.

Sturgeon says the SNP will be holding out a “hand of friendship”.

Q: In Edinburgh South your candidate described no voters as Quislings. He described MPs at Westminster as “paedophiles, tax-dodgers and thieves”. He is still a candidate.

Sturgeon says the voters will cast their verdict on him. She leads by example. She wants ordinary people to get a better deal from the system.

Q: Between 2009-10 and this year, health spending in England rose by 6% in real terms. In Scotland they rose by 1%. Who is more austere?

Sturgeon says those figures do not include non-profit capital spending.

She says the SNP has done all it can to protect health spending.

And health spending per head is higher in Scotland, she says.

The SNP would vote for considerable increases in health spending across the UK, she says.

Q: So Miliband would not have to do a deal with you?

Sturgeon says the SNP want to lock the Tories out of Downing Street. After that, they would use their influence on a case by case basis.

Q: After 7 May, do you expect to have a handle on power?

Nicola Sturgeon says she hopes the SNP will “weild influence in the House of Commons”. People have to vote first. But she would expect the people of Scotland’s views to be taken into account at Westminster.

Q: Would you be prepared to vote Ed Miliband down and put the Conservatives in power if he does not do a deal with you?

Sturgeon says she would not put the Tories in power.

Q: So he can ignore you?

Sturgeon says exercising power is not just about backing the Queen’s Speech. She would expect Miliband to talk to other parties and compromise to get his legislation through.

Q: To whom would he have to speak? Angus Robertson, the SNP leader in the Commons. Or Alex Salmond, who might replace him? Or you?

Sturgeon says she is leader of the SNP. She will take charge.

Under the Fixed-term Parliaments Act, small parties can have considerable influence.

Nicola Sturgeon's Today interview

The Today programme is doing a series of leader interviews before the election. Today Nicola Sturgeon, the SNP leader, is on.

James Naughtie is interviewing her in Glasgow.

Good morning. I’m taking over from Claire now.

Harriet Harman, Labour’s deputy leader, has responded to Nigel Dodds’ article in the Guardian criticising the Conservatives’ stance on Scotland. She said:

In this election campaign David Cameron is avoiding talking about the cost of living crisis, the NHS or immigration because he is running from his record and has nothing to say about the future.

Instead, all the Tories do is talk about some non-existent deal with the SNP. It’s not true, it isn’t working and it is dangerously divisive for the future of the United Kingdom.

Author of Telegraph letter is … "CCHQ-Admin"

That Telegraph letter from 5,000 small business owners pledging support for a Conservative victory has unsurprisingly got some people wondering how such an enterprise came about.

We reported earlier this month that Tory peer Karren Brady was trying to drum up support for such a letter.

And now eagle-eyed Twitter users have spotted an author stamp on today’s letter: one CCHQ-Admin.

CCHQ would, typically, stand for Conservative campaign headquarters. Perhaps there are other contenders…

The link to the letter pdf is here, on the Telegraph site.

We’ve double-checked this and sure enough:

Updated

Peter Robinson: Wells could have stayed in NI cabinet

Northern Ireland’s first minister and DUP leader Peter Robinson said he would have supported Wells if his party colleague had wanted to stay on in the health ministry:

Jim and Grace have been foremost in our prayers over the last few months.

Almost daily he has updated me on Grace’s progress. I trust she will make a full and speedy recovery.

I have always advised Jim that we stand ready to assist him in any way we can.

He added:

I know Jim was enjoying leading change within the department and putting in place new policies that were making our health service better.

I would have wanted it to be otherwise but I respect Jim’s decision. However, he is right to put his family first and I will fully support his decision. With such a significant portfolio, there should be an orderly transition; therefore Jim will continue in post until 11 May when the new minister will take up office.

I place on record my thanks, and that of my party, for Jim’s service and trust everyone will accept the stress and strain Jim has encountered over these past months and offer him and his family support and encouragement as Grace battles her illness.

Updated

Jim Wells' resignation statement

The Guardian’s Ireland correspondent, Henry McDonald, has more on the resignation of Jim Wells:

Northern Ireland’s DUP health minister has just released a statement explaining his personal reasons for stepping down from the power-sharing cabinet at Stormont.

On the row over his anti-gay remarks and his doorstep exchange with a lesbian couple at the weekend, the South Down assemblyman and party candidate for South Down insisted that “at no time did I set out to upset or offend anyone and it has upset me greatly that the comments made have caused distress to some within our community”.

Wells continued:

I am deeply saddened that some of those who represent a different viewpoint from me have attacked my family and me in a deeply personal, nasty and in some cases threatening way. Some of the outbursts on social media have been particularly abusive and menacing in nature.

But he said his main reason for resigning was due to his wife’s grave illness:

As many people are aware I have been focused on helping my wife during her fight for life.

Those who know my family and I, know the last three months have been the toughest of our lives as we watched my wife, Grace, suffer two successive strokes and battle through major heart surgery.

Like many families up and down the country who find themselves in similar circumstances our sole motivation has been to support Grace and give her all our support as she has battled for survival.

Over these weeks there have been many ups and downs and we have endured many heartaches along the way. Last week, Grace’s condition had shown encouraging improvement but will require long-term specialised care.

While spending many long hours at the hospital I’ve met some wonderful people going through some really tough times.

My colleague Frances Perraudin continues her trek around the UK aboard the Lib Dem battle bus and sends this dispatch:

The Liberal Democrat battle bus is on its way to Eastleigh this morning, where the party retained the seat from Ukip’s advances in a 2013 byelection.

Nick Clegg will give a speech to activists saying that his party is fighting ‘60 Eastleighs’ in this general election.

‘Every held and target seat is being fought like a byelection,’ the Lib Dem leader is expected to say. ‘In Eastleigh we proved something we have always known: we know how to hold on against all challengers and all the odds.’

The Lib Dems admit openly to fighting a defensive campaign, focusing their energies on the seats they already hold, plus a small handful of seats which their internal polling suggests they could pinch back (including Oxford West and Abingdon, Maidstone and Watford).

‘We’re not going to listen to our critics and those who write us off. They’ve been wrong about us before and they are wrong about us now,’ Clegg will say.

‘There’s a reason why our signs say Winning Here. Because we are. Winning Here is in our DNA.’

Updated

Nicola Sturgeon: a correction

Disappointing news. I posted a picture of Sturgeon in my morning briefing gamely braving a gym beam, and said she did not fall off.

It turns out I was wrong.

Clearly some major reassessment of what the balancing act metaphor now means for the outcome of the election is needed.

Updated

Hillary Benn, shadow local government secretary, is on the Today programme now, talking about Labour’s housing proposals.

Benn says the number of homes being built needs to increase substantially. He says Labour is committed to 200,000 extra homes a year by 2020.

Challenged over the letter to the Telegraph from small businesses today, Benn says Labour is better for small business owners and will cut business rates.

It wasn’t the most thrilling of interviews, I have to say. We will have to hope for more vim from Miliband’s speech later this morning.

Jim Wells, Northern Ireland's health minister, resigns

Ireland correspondent Henry McDonald has this report:

Northern Ireland’s health minister has resigned after uttering anti-gay remarks during the general election campaign.

Democratic Unionist party (DUP) candidate Jim Wells now faces a police investigation over a further anti-gay controversy involving a lesbian couple at the weekend.

The Police Service of Northern Ireland has confirmed that it is investigating a complaint about alleged remarks made by the DUP’s South Down candidate while canvassing at the couple’s home in Rathfriland, Co Down, on Saturday.

The controversy is particularly damaging for the DUP’s leadership as it seeks to portray itself as potential kingmakers in a hung parliament. The party high command has tried to appear equally attractive to the Tories or Labour if either national party needs their votes after polls close next week.

This latest furore erupted last week when Wells told a debate in Downpatrick that child abuse was more rife among gay couples. The minister later apologised for his remarks, pleading that he was under huge personal strain due to his wife’s illness.

But the row was compounded by a doorstep exchange Wells allegedly had with the lesbian couple on Saturday. Wells is reported to have said he did not agree with their lifestyle but later tried to apologise to the couple. They refused to accept the apology and reported the remarks to the police.

Martin McGuinness, the deputy first minister, said: “Jim Wells is a bigot.”

Nick Clegg said the “mask had slipped”, in relation to the DUP.

Updated

Morning briefing

Good morning and welcome to the Guardian election live blog. For the election that is next week. Ten days away. That thought might make you feel excited, trepidatious, fatigued or just plain angry. Fear not: we cover all bases here.

I’m Claire Phipps and I’ll be starting off the blog, helpfully providing you with what you need to know to get through the morning, before handing over to Andrew Sparrow. We’re on Twitter, @Claire_Phipps and @AndrewSparrow, and hovering below the line, too, so come and share your thoughts.

The big picture

I’m going literal today, with an actual picture. But what a gift for political headline writers and omen-spotters. Will Nicola Sturgeon and the SNP be facing a similar balancing act on 8 May?

And no, she didn’t fall off.

The pearl-clutching of the Westminster parties around the issue of the SNP – Theresa May’s melodramatic warning that a Labour/SNP deal would be the worst constitutional crisis since the abdication ensured she had a weekend of ridicule – has been tackled by Nigel Dodds, leader of the Democratic Unionists in Westminster, who says the Conservatives risk losing the support of his party over its attitude to Scotland, as well as its promotion of English votes on English issues. Writing in the Guardian, Dodds says:

Take the ‘right’ of SNP MPs to vote in the Commons, or the supposed lack of legitimacy that stems from it. No one who purports to be a unionist can question it. They have the right.

That’s why we fought and won the referendum: to enshrine the rights of Scots to go on sending representatives, fully equal to every other, to Westminster. Glib and lazy talk about SNP MPs somehow not being as entitled to vote in every division in the Commons as any other British MP simply fuels nationalist paranoia.

But David Cameron was generally thought to have had a decent day yesterday, injecting some passion into a campaign to which many thought he had so far failed to rise. Even my colleague Andrew Sparrow thought Sunday’s appearance “one of the best stump speeches I’ve seen him deliver”, and he doesn’t dish those out lightly.

In a speech in Yeovil, Cameron told supporters:

If you want political excitement, go to Greece. If you want more showbiz in this election, go to Hollywood.

Here and now in the UK I’m focused on something real. A stronger economy – something that excites millions more: more jobs, more homes, more business, more childcare, more security in retirement.

Perhaps he was roused by a tweet from Rupert Murdoch – who might not be a voter in the election, but certainly has an opinion or two – that a Miliband win would signal the end of Cameron’s leadership of his party.

Ed Miliband came in for some flak after saying Labour would peg private rent rises to the rate of inflation, but will stick to the housing theme today with a speech on stamp duty – more on that below. But Miliband did another of his confounding-the-critics tricks on Sunday, with a spirited take-down of London mayor, would-be MP and potential Cameron replacement Boris Johnson on the BBC’s Marr show.

Miliband was forced, once again, to confirm he would be distancing his party from any cosy terms with the SNP after 7 May, this time ruling out a ‘confidence and supply’ deal. Which bring us full circle – back to the SNP and its balancing role in the post-election landscape:

Election 2015: The Guardian poll projection
Our model takes in all published constituency-level polls, UK-wide polls and polling conducted in the nations, and projects the result in each of the 650 Westminster constituencies using an adjusted average. Methodology.

Diary

Two big speeches today as Labour pushes its housing policies and the Tories hammer home their message on the economy:

  • 10am, David Cameron makes a speech in central London.
  • 11am, Ed Miliband makes a speech on housing in Stockport.
  • Nick Clegg is off to Dorset and Hampshire on his Lib Dem battle bus.
  • At 8.20am, Nicola Sturgeon is interviewed on the Today programme, before campaigning in Kilmarnock.
  • At 10.45am Ed Balls and Jim Murphy are making speeches in Glasgow.
  • Green party leader Natalie Bennett is on BBC Breakfast and later announces her own rent cap policy in London, at noon.
  • And Plaid Cymru leader Leanne Wood appears on ITV’s Good Morning Britain.

The big issue

Labour is stomping into Tory territory today, brandishing its ideas as the party for the property-owning classes. In what my colleague Nicholas Watt calls

one of the boldest policy announcements of the election campaign, designed to steal David Cameron’s thunder

Miliband will today say that Labour would abolish stamp duty for all first-time buyers purchasing homes worth up to £300,000, as well as a new initiative that would ensure first-time buyers had first dibs on up to half of the homes being built in their area. The stamp duty tax break could be worth up to £5,000, the party says.

Housing could be a key issue for many voters. Conservative efforts to grab the reins with an extension of right-to-buy to housing association tenants met with widespread opposition, with the Institute of Fiscal Studies saying it could lead to “a further depletion of the social housing stock”.

Having knocked Labour’s weekend proposals for rent caps, however, the Tories will no doubt be focusing on credibility again today, with a new Cameron speech on the economy (likely theme: keep on keeping on) and a fresh letter in the Telegraph, this time from 5,000 small business owners saying life is better with the Conservatives:

We run small businesses right across the country. We work hard, make sacrifices and invest our own money to help our businesses grow and succeed. It was tough during the recession, but we kept going.

This Conservative-led government has been genuinely committed to making sure Britain is open for business. They’ve managed to get the economy moving again by tackling the deficit, helping to keep interest rates low and inflation down.

We’ve been helped by their steps to lower taxes, reduce red tape, simplify employment law and get the banks lending. The good news is that businesses like ours have helped to create 1,000 jobs a day since 2010.

We would like to see David Cameron and George Osborne given the chance to finish what they have started. A change now would be far too risky and would undo all the good work of the last five years.

You can see the full list of signatories here. You’ll forgive me for not having compiled a dossier on them all for the dawn of this live blog (though do point out any interesting signatories below the line). But last time the Telegraph obligingly hosted such a letter – from 100 business chiefsmy Guardian colleagues discovered a large number were party donors (along with a few tax avoiders).

Read these

  • In the Telegraph, Boris Johnson draws parallels between Miliband’s Labour and communist Vietnam and says rent controls are worse than napalm. (Just imagine the hyperbolic heights we will reach in election week itself.)
  • In the Times, Libby Purves laments this “overlong election campaign” and wonders what issues really matter to voters:

The immorality of homes becoming sterile investments takes us straight to the other big fault line: rising inequality and stalled social mobility. The two are linked, because if you must cling precariously to the home base you have — rented or mortgaged, council or private — it reduces your ability to move, change, re-educate yourself and leave a dead-end job and rock the financial boat with a small enterprise.

  • In the Scotsman, David Torrance explores Miliband’s hardening attitude towards the SNP, saying a better than expected campaign has boosted Labour confidence.
  • And in the Guardian, Matthew D’Ancona writes that victory for Cameron is within reach:

Cameron is right to hold his nerve. He does not need every single beneficiary of the recovery to vote for him. He just requires a sufficiency of pencils to hover for long enough in the polling booth, as voters decide, at the only moment that matters, that this is no time for a change.

Why panic when such an outcome remains possible – plausible, even?

The day in a tweet

As if we weren’t exhausted enough:

If today were a romcom, it would be…

How to Lose A Guy in 10 Days. Though Guardian film critic Peter Bradshaw gave it one star, so you’ve been warned.

The key story you’re missing when you’re election-obsessed

Rescue efforts continue in Nepal, where the death toll has exceeded 3,200 after the weekend’s devastating earthquake.

 

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