Graeme Wearden (until 2,15) and Nick Fletcher (now) 

UK growth confirmed at 0.7%, but recovery unbalanced – business live

Second estimate of UK GDP shows trade deficit up and business investment down
  
  

Chancellor of the Exchequer George Osborne.
Chancellor of the Exchequer George Osborne. Photograph: Philip Toscano/PA

European markets suffer mixed fortunes

There was a certain amount of support for stock markets from the prospect of possible European Central Bank measures to bolster the flagging eurozone economy and avoid deflation. But optimists hoping for action at next week’s meeting may be disappointed, with any move more likely in the new year. With some disappointing US data, there was not much else to enthuse investors and the day ended as a pretty mixed bag ahead of US Thanksgiving and this week’s meeting of the Opec oil cartel. The final scores showed:

  • The FTSE 100 finished down just 1.97 points or 0.03% at 6729.17
  • Germany’s Dax climbed 0.55% to 9915.56
  • France’s Cac closed 0.2% lower at 4373.42
  • Italy’s FTSE MIB edged down 0.36% to 19,938.42
  • Spain’s Ibex ended 0.49% adrift at 10,647.0

On Wall Street the Dow Jones Industrial Average is currently 8 points or 0.05% lower.

On that note, it’s time to close up for the evening. Thanks for all your comments, and we’ll be back again tomorrow.

Back to the breakdown of those talks between Greek government officials and Troika officials in Paris. Our correspondent Helena Smith reports:

Barely hours after their seeming collapse, the Greek finance minister Gikas Hardouvelis has gone out of his way to put a positive spin on the Paris talks. The economics professor informed reporters in the French capital that things weren’t as bad as they looked. Progress, he insisted, had been made on several fronts even if agreement had not been struck and a date settled for the auditors’ return to Athens.

“There was convergence on many issues,” he was quoted as saying. Echoing that view, the European Commission’s chief inspector Declan Costello, called the talks “intense and constructive.” Disagreement, once again, had centred on projections for next year’s fiscal gap. Lenders argue it will be at least €2.5bn – far greater than the €350m now estimated by the Greek government - and, they claim, impossible to cover without further measures.

Insiders said bleary-eyed participants (discussions lasted a marathon 11 hours ending at around 4 AM today) would go back to Greece in upbeat mood that negotiations that have come to be the hardest yet had “moved forward” in some respects.

Talks had focused on labour relations, pensions and administrative reforms – creditors are demanding that the country’s loss-making pension system, in particular, be overhauled. Digging in its heels, the Greek side said further cuts would only backfire. “We are confident a date for the auditors return will be agreed shortly,” said one official denying the negotiations had effectively collapsed. “This round [of negotiations] is especially strenuous precisely because it is the last.”

Updated

Jean-Claude Juncker’s €300bn plan to revive the eurozone economy sounds too good to be true, and it is, according to our economics editor Larry Elliott:

Junkcer at least recognises there is a need to act, but there are problems with the scheme, writes Larry:

The first drawback with the Juncker plan is that there is only €20bn (£15bn) of new money, with the rest coming from the private sector. Brussels will provide guarantees should any of the investments in roads, railways, energy projects or a speedier internet go pear-shaped. Some critics have already dubbed this highly leveraged scheme as Juncker’s version of subprime mortgage debt.

In reality, Brussels has had little alternative but to provide seedcorn cash and hope it will generate private sector involvement. Between them Britain and Germany have ensured that the commission’s budget remains tiny. Juncker simply does not have the funds available for a big increase in public spending. Given that the eurozone is a €13tn economy, what’s on offer is pretty small beer.

The second drawback is that the investment – even assuming it happens – will take time to arrive. Every European Union country has sent in a list of pet projects and these will have to be assessed by a panel of experts before a final list can be drawn up. This is a recipe for bureaucratic delay and the customary horse-trading as each country demands its share of the action. It is unlikely work on a single project will begin until 2016, when what Europe needs is an immediate boost to demand.

Full comment here:

Juncker’s €300bn kickstarter sounds too good to be true – it is

And here’s the latest Reuters take on the Greece talks in Paris:

Greece and its EU/IMF lenders failed to resolve differences over next year’s budget at talks in Paris, a Greek official said on Wednesday, raising doubts about whether Athens can meet a deadline to wrap up its bailout programme.

The two sides have been haggling over a projected budget shortfall next year, which has held up an overall deal on the final bailout review. Athens needs to strike that deal by a December 8 deadline to ensure it makes good on a pledge to quit its €240bn ($300bn) bailout by the end of the year.

The official said there had been no discussion of extending the bailout beyond the end of the year, but also added that no date had been set for the return of EU/IMF inspectors to Athens.

The inspectors failed to return to Athens as expected earlier this month and in a surprise move, the two sides held talks in Paris this week that ended on Wednesday.

“The number one issue is the fiscal gap for 2015,” the Greek finance ministry official told reporters after the talks ended.

The lenders say Athens faces a shortfall of over €2bn next year unless it waters down a generous state arrears payback plan for austerity-hit Greeks or takes other measures.

Athens says it faces no such shortfall and last week submitted its plans for a near-balanced budget to parliament without approval from the inspectors.

Greece’s government has staked its survival on abandoning the bailout. It is hoping an early exit from the reviled programme will help it win enough support to scrape through a presidential vote in February and avoid early elections.

And more from Paris on the concluded talks between the Greek government and its troika of lenders:

The next splurge of US data shows a mixed picture, with consumer sentiment up, Chicago manufacturing activity slowing and house sales disappointing.

US consumer sentiment rose in November to its highest level in more than seven years. The Thomson Reuters/University of Michigan’s final reading came in at 88.8, up from 86.9 in October but below the preliminary estimate of 89.4.

Survey director Richard Curtin said:

Consumers more frequently reported hearing about positive rather than negative economic developments in the November survey, with reports of improving employment the dominant news item.

This contrasts with disappointing consumer confidence figures on Tuesday.

Meanwhile the pace of business activity in the midwest slowed in November. The ISM Chicago business barometer fell from 66.2 in October to 60.8, below expectations of a figure of 63.

Philip Uglow, chief economist of MNI Indicators - which publishes the report in partnership with ISM-Chicago - said:

Following the sharp rise in the barometer to a one year high in October it wasn’t too surprising to see activity ease somewhat in November. Overall the trend remains firm and activity looks set to pick up in the fourth quarter from the third.

Finally sales of new single family homes rose for a third straight month in October, up 0.7% to an annual rate of 458,000 units compared to expectations of a figure of 472,000.

And September’s number was revised down from 467,000 to 455,000.

Updated

The US data so far (there is more to come shortly in the form of housing, confidence and Chicago manufacturing) was not particularly re-assuring, says Rob Carnell at ING Bank:

[The data] sheds some doubt on the positive message delivered by the previous day’s upwards GDP revisions.

October durable goods orders, for which the key focus is the core goods orders ex-defence and ex-aircraft, dipped 1.3% month on month, taking the three-month annualised trend down from 11.2% in September, to only 2.7% in October. Core capital goods shipments also declined, though not as much. These two categories usually give a rough approximation to quarterly business investment in equipment and software published in the GDP data. This is therefore a weak start to the fourth quarter.

Adding to a weak set of orders data, the latest weekly initial jobless claims figure spiked higher too, rising from 292,000 to 313,000, and confirming that the last month has seen a reversal in the recent downtrend. Our suspicion is that this will be short-lived. We saw a similar spike in November last year. But it doesn’t help when all the other data are also looking a bit soft. We will need to see claims data dip sharply down in the coming weeks if we are not to begin to doubt the resilience of the recovery in the labour market.

Personal income and spending data were also disappointing, which also raises doubts about fourth quarter 2014 GDP (was already looking challenged) though there were some upwards revisions to the spending numbers that soften the blow a little. The September spending figure was revised to flat from -0.2%, so the undershoot of the October 0.3% consensus estimate by 0.1 percentage point isn’t as bad as it first looks, but in no way suggests a strong rebound from the limp 2.2% annualised consumer spending growth recorded in the third quarter.

These data may well explain why consumer confidence data took an unexpected dive in November, though there may also be some distortion showing through from the recent mid-term elections. Expectations of Fed tightening next year will doubtless be trimmed in the light of this data, sapping some support for the US dollar.

Robin Bew, managing director of The Economist Intelligence Unit, is also unimpressed by the nitty-gritty of today’s UK growth report.

And.....US consumer spending only rose by 0.2% last month, missing forecasts of a 0.3% rise.

The America’s Commerce Department also reported that personal incomes rose by 0.2% in October, only half as fast as expected.

US initial jobless claims & durable goods orders released

A swath of economic data from across the Atlantic just hit the wires, as Americans clear the decks ready for Thanksgiving tomorrow.

And they show that the number of US citizens signing on for unemployment benefit has hit the highest level since September, according to data just released.

The Labor Department reports that the initial claims total rose to 313,000 last week, a gain of 21,000.

The less-volatile four-week moving average remained below 300,000, though, suggesting the US jobs market is still recovering. And the number of ‘continuing claims’ (rather than new applications for benefits) hit a new 14 year low.

And separately, US durable goods orders have beaten forecasts, with a rise of 0.4% last month.

That’s much stronger than the 0.6% fall which was pencilled in by Wall Street. However, the increase was mainly due to transportation orders - strip out orders for aeroplanes and engines, and durable goods were actually down by 0.9%.

Updated

Lunchtime summary: Fears over unbalanced UK recovery

Time for a lunchtime recap.

Economists fear that the UK economy remains dangerously unbalanced after the second estimate of UK growth in the third quarter of 2014 was released, showing businesses cut their investments and exports fell.

The Office for National Statistics reported that GDP grew by 0.7%, in line with last month’s initial estimates. That confirmed that the UK has now grown for the last seven quarters:

But new details of expenditure in the economy worried several experts.

The ONS found that business investment fell by 0.8% during the quarter, signalling that firms cut back on spending. And exports declined by 0.4%, which means the trade gap widened again.

Instead, it was consumer spending (up 0.8%) and government expenditure (up 1.1%) that drove growth.

Stephen Lewis, chief economist at ADM Investor Services, warns:

These trends could not extend far without putting the UK economy in jeopardy.

Lewis warns that growth will probably “subside” over the next few quarters.

The drop in exports suggests Britain is already feeling the impact of the slowdown in Europe. Mark Miller, UK analyst at the Economist Intelligence Unit, warned that the weak eurozone economy means the UK will struggle to improve its position.

The Treasury cautioned that Britain has reached a ‘critical moment’ in the recovery.

And here’s our news story

In other news:

Shares in Thomas Cook are still down by 20% after the holiday firm shocked the City with the unexpected departure of CEO Harriet Green.

Full story: Thomas Cook shares crash after Harriet Green is pushed out

Our City editor Nils Pratley argues that investors deserve to hear what’s actually happened:

Thomas Cook should give shareholders a break

EC president Jean-Claude Juncker has announced his new €315bn investment fund to drive European growth. He told MEPs in Strasbourg that “Christmas has come early”.

But the reaction from experts is more muted; economist Sean Richards isn’t impressed:

And EC officials say the talks between Greece and its lenders have made some progress, after they ended this afternoon.

The negotiations between Greece’s government ministers and its international lenders in Paris have ended (at least for the moment), according to reports on the wires.

And the two sides do not appear to have reached agreement over Greece’s fiscal plans for 2015.

The Troika had been demanding extra measures to cover a fiscal gap of around €3bn, which Athens denies is needed.

Updated

Citi: Workers' compensation ratio hits 16 year low

Readers often point out that the UK recovery has not yet reached many people, as real wages having been falling for most of the last four years.

This chart, from investment bank Citi, shows clearly that labour’s “share of the pie” has now fallen to the lowest in 16 years.

Updated

The number of people in work in the Irish Republic it at its highest since 2009, our Dublin correspondent Henry McDonald reports:

Unemployment is still falling with the jobless rate currently down to 11.% of the workforce in Ireland, according to the Central Statistics Office in Dublin.

The CSO said this is the eight successive quarter of a year where there has been an annual increase in employment.

The number of long term unemployed in Ireland is also falling from 7.6% to 6.4% from the previous quarter, the CSO said.

Responding to the falling dole queue numbers, Irish Finance Minister Michael Noonan said:

“The Irish Economy is growing strongly and most importantly jobs are being created. Budget 2015 was designed to strengthen and broaden this recovery to families across the country.”

Updated

In other news... property inflation in Ireland has hit its highest level in eight years, with prices up 16.3% year-on-year in October.

Here’s our news story on today’s UK growth data:

UK GDP growth: fears mount that plan to rebalance economy is failing

Updated

CBI: Retailers resilient, but prices under pressure

The latest survey of UK retail spending, from the CBI, has found that 44% of shops reported that sales this month are higher than a year ago, while 17% say they fell.

The net balance of +27 is weaker than October’s +31.

Economics correspondent Phillip Inman says the survey points to a decent if not spectacular Christmas for high street shops.

The distributive trades survey of 130 firms found that a majority expect conditions to improve over the next three months.

They are employing more people and increasing investment in line with the modest trend set over the last year. The problem for shop owners that they are being forced to hold or drop their prices to get customers through the door.

Yesterday Sir Philip Green, BhS and Top Shop owner, has already predicted a cut-price festive period.

Barry Williams, the CBI’s distributive trades survey chairman and Asda’s chief merchandising officer for food, explains:

“It’s no secret that it has been a demanding year for the retail industry but shopkeepers haven’t been pulling their punches when it comes to getting shoppers through their doors – borne out with the lowest essential item inflation in five years and growing online sales.

“This latest survey shows many have been winning some rounds in what has been one of the most challenging years for both the industry, and for customers.

“We’re seeing encouraging signs that pressure on family budgets is letting up, and although there is some way to go with the broader economy, there can be some optimism for retailers and customers alike as we enter the crucial run up to Christmas.

With prices under pressure and more firms adopting US-style Black Friday offers, retailers are expecting a festive boost next month and are certainly doing their best to put smiles on customers’ faces and make it easy on their pockets.”

Larry Elliott: It's the same old UK economy

Our economics editor, Larry Elliott, has compared the second estimate of UK GDP to ‘peeling off an onion ring’.

And the expenditure components of growth exposed today show that “the rebalancing of the economy is still some way off”, he writes.

The domestic economy expanded by 0.9%, with trade knocking 0.2 points off the quarterly growth rate. Consumer spending rose by 0.8% in the third quarter, while government expenditure was up by 1.1%. Business investment fell by 0.7%.

Ministers can point to the weakness of the eurozone to explain away the poor export performance. This, though, is a feeble excuse given the weakness of exports – despite the boost from a substantial depreciation of sterling – throughout this parliament.

So although Britain is growing faster than Germany or France, it still has the same problems:

More here: UK economy is growing but the same old weaknesses are with us

Updated

Lee Hopley, chief economist at manufacturers group EEF, has urged George Osborne to give exporters more assistance.

“While business investment posted a bit of a dip, this isn’t yet cause for concern as surveys of intentions across the private sector seem to be holding.

The drag from net trade is, however, providing a bigger challenge to rebalancing ambitions. Next week’s Autumn Statement needs to ensure that the business environment for companies planning to invest, recruit and get into new markets are a target for further action from the Chancellor.”


There is little evidence in today’s GDP report that Britain’s economy is rebalancing, warns Mark Miller, UK analyst at the Economist Intelligence Unit.

The expenditure components do not suggest a meaningful shift to more balanced economic activity, with private consumption growth accelerating modestly during the latest quarter and exports contracting at the same pace as in the second quarter.

And the troubles in the eurozone, which only grew 0.2% last month, may mean the UK remains too dependent on consumer spending rather than exports:

Amid current signs of weaker growth in the euro zone, it is far from clear this re-balancing will be achieved anytime soon.”

Marc Ostwald of ADM Investor Services says:

On the surface GDP looks OK, with growth unrevised at +0.7% quarter-on-quarter.... but the details are not good outside of the services sector’s growth of 0.8%, revised up from a preliminary reading of 0.7%

Updated

UK GDP: Economist reaction starts here

Several economists are warning that UK growth is unbalanced.

Jeremy Cook, of currency exchange company, World First, said:

“Overall growth of 0.7% is still pretty strong, especially against yesterday’s German figure of a meagre 0.1% increase in output. Unfortunately it is the make-up of this growth that has given us some cause for concern.

“Seeing consumer spending increase at 0.8% - the highest number in four years – is all well and good. Consumer spending makes up around 70% of the UK economy, so without it we would be in dire straits.

“It is what’s missing that is the issue; exports were 0.4% lower on the quarter - surely a function of diminishing growth prospects in the UK’s major customer arenas - while government spending ran 1.1% higher – hardly a deficit neutral plan.

Updated

UK economy: the key charts

These charts explain the situation in the UK economy today.

1) The recovery from the global recession of 2008 continued in the third quarter of this year.

The 0.7% increase in GDP achieved in Q3 means the economy is now around 3.4% above its pre-crisis peak.

The ONS says:

GDP in the UK grew steadily during the 2000s until a financial market shock affected UK and global economic growth in 2008 and 2009.

Economic growth resumed towards the end of 2009, but typically at a slower rate than the period prior to 2008. Quarterly growth in this period was also erratic, with several quarters between 2010 and 2012 recording flat or declining GDP.

This two- year period coincided with special events (for example severe winter weather in Q4 2010 and the Diamond Jubilee in Q2 2012) that are likely to have affected growth. Since 2013, GDP has grown steadily, exceeding its pre-downturn peak in Q3 2013.

2) Britain’s service sector is the only part of the economy that is larger than in 2008.

And with growth of 0.8% last quarter, vs 0.2% for production, the gap between the ‘dominant service sector’ and the rest is widening.

3) Consumer spending and government spending both helped the economy grow last quarter, but Britain’s trade performance held it back.

4) The trade gap widened, as UK exports declined by 0.4% last quarter while imports increased by 1.4%.

George Osborne’s “March of the Makers” may be stumbling, as headwinds from the global economy hit exporters.

5) America has grown much faster than the UK since the start of the financial crisis.

But Europe and Japan (which has fallen back into recession) have under-performed.

c

Updated

Britain was not the fastest growing member of the G7 in the last quarter alone.

America’s economy expanded by almost 1% in the July-September period, according to data released yesterday.

However, the US did contract last winter, so its annual growth rate lags behind the UK.

Updated

UK Treasury: critical moment for the UK economy

The UK Treasury has declared that The Plan is working (does any Treasury statement not say that these days?!):

“Today’s figures show that the government’s long term economic plan is working, with the fastest annual growth in the G7 and all the main sectors of the economy growing. But the UK is not immune to weakness in the euro area and instability in global markets, so we face a critical moment for our economy.

We need to carry on working through our economic plan that is securing a resilient economy and a better future.”

Updated

You can see the full GDP report yourself, on the ONS website (right-click to open in a new tab).

Newsnight economics editor Duncan Weldon agrees that the GDP report isn’t very encouraging, even though growth was confirmed at 0.7%.

UK trade deficit widens as exports slide

The ONS also reports that Britain’s trade balance deficit widened in the last quarter, from £8.9bn in Q2 2014 to £11.2bn in Q3

And that’s because exports declined, while imports grew.

The ONS says:

Following a 0.4% decrease in Q2 2014, exports fell by 0.4% in the latest quarter, while imports increased by 1.4%. With exports contracting and imports increasing, the net trade balance worsened when compared to the previous quarter.

Updated

And for all the talk of rebalancing the economy, consumer spending continues to help drive the recovery.

The ONS says household final consumption expenditure rose by 0.8% in Q3 2014 and has increased for thirteen consecutive quarters.

Yesterday, Bank of England policymaker Kristin Forbes told MPs that people have been dipping into their savings to fund spending; that’s why real wage growth is desperately needed.

The ONS says that the drop in business investment was led by “the intellectual property products (IPP), and in particular the software component of this asset”.

UK business investment falls

This isn’t great news either: Business investment in the UK fell by 0.7% in the third quarter of the year.

That is the first drop in business investment since the second quarter of 2013, and follows 3.3% growth in Q2.

Updated

The UK construction sector grew by 0.8%, in line with the first estimate of GDP.

The UK recovery looks less balanced, according to the data just released.

The ONS has revised up growth in the service sector in the last quarter to +0.8%, from +0.7% originally.

But industrial production has been revised down - output only grew by 0.2%, not the 0.5% first estimated. That’s mainly due to a drop in activity in mining and quarrying.

Updated

Updated UK growth figures released

Breaking: The UK economy grew by 0.7% in the third quarter of this year, the Office for National Statistics says.

That’s in line with the initial estimate last month.

That means GDP expanded by a healthy-looking 3% over the last year.

But there’s lots more detail about how the economy performed....

Here comes the second estimate of UK GDP.....

Heads up: European Central Bank vice-president Vitor Constancio has declared that the ECB could start a full-blown quantitative easing programme early next year.

In a speech in London, Constancio slaps down suggestions that the ECB shouldn’t, or couldn’t, embark on sovereign QE (buying government bonds with new money).

It would, he says, be a “purely monetary policy decision”, within the ECB’s “mandate and our legal competence”. And the ECB should be able to tell whether to do it, or now, during the first quarter of 2015.

Steve Collins, global head of dealing at London & Capital Asset Management, reckons Constancio has stirred things up:

Updated

In the financial markets.... the pound is flat this morning at $1.571 as traders wait for the second estimate of UK GDP to be released at 9.30am.

European stock markets are up this morning. Traders say that yesterday’s strong US GDP figures, showing its economy growing by almost 4%,

  • FTSE 100: up 15 points at 6746
  • German DAX: up 53 points at 9914
  • French CAC: up 2 points at 4385

No respite for Thomas Cook; shares are still down around 20% as investors wonder exactly what’s behind Harriet Green’s exit.

Green has given some intriguing interviews this year. In January she told Management Today that she won’t hang around when the time comes to leave the company:

‘CEOs spend too long in the same job,’ she says. ‘You should do what you have to do, have maybe a couple of years hugging everyone and then move on. I think that adds up to six or seven years, not 16 or 17.’

Not just two years, then?

The Times also ran a big piece on her last month (starting at 5.30am in the gym of the five-star Mayfair hotel where she spends the week), in which she was “adamant” that she was nowhere near finished at Thomas Cook:

Recent “babble” that she might take a peerage and a government job is nonsense. “Anyone who knows me in the least would know that a tap on the shoulder to be Lady Whatever to solve the National Health Service is not me, not how I function. I don’t like any form of supervision, let alone government and voters.”

Juncker began his appearance in the European Parliament by declaring that “Christmas has come early”, as he explained how his €315bn investment fund would work. He concluded by warning MEPs that ‘there can be no turning back”.

The BBC website has a rolling report:

BBC: European Parliament live

Juncker launches EU investment fund

Over in Strasbourg Brussels , European Commission president Jean-Claude Juncker is proudly unveiling his new multi-billion euro investment fund.

Juncker, who must be relieved to be discussing growth rather than tax avoidance, says Europe needs a “kick-start”, and this is the way to do it.

He insists that the €315bn fund is new money. [although, as explained in the introduction, there’s only €20bn or so of seed capital], and suggested the fund could be extended.

Juncker urged EU leaders to back the idea, declaring:

We need political support for this investment plan, not a politicisation of the plan.

As a teaser, he also promised that money paid into the fund by EU states will not be counted when Brussels assesses their deficit levels.

Juncker is also painting a picture in which school children in Greece are blessed with new PCs to help them learn:

Updated

Here’s our news story on the shenanigans at Thomas Cook:

Thomas Cook chief Harriet Green in shock departure

The sudden, unexpected nature of Harriet Green’s departure has clearly spooked investors:

Thomas Cook shares tumble 20%

Shares in Thomas Cook have plunged by 20% at the start of trading, following the shock exit of CEO Harriet Green.

The company’s warning that growth will be more measured, in the “tougher trading environment” has also alarmed the City.

Chris Beauchamp, market analyst at IG, explains:

Investors will be right to ask questions over how her departure will affect the turnaround plan, so expect much of the price reaction today to be in connection to this.

The other issue is the turnaround plan – the warning that growth will be more moderate (i.e. slower) in the coming year is a sign that the easy bit has been done.

Thomas Cook chairman explains Green's exit

Frank Meysman, chairman of Thomas Cook, is facing the press (by telephone) to explain the unexpected departure of CEO Harriet Green.

He’s confirmed that Green will receive a six-month payoff, and also stated that the company needs a boss with a more detailed grasp of the industry (?!).

My colleague Sean Farrell is tweeting the key points:

Meysman also harked back to Green’s low-sleep lifestyle (a Thatcherite four hours oir less, apparently):

Thomas Cook chief steps down

Big news in the City this morning – Harriet Green, the businesswoman who led the turnaround of holiday chain Thomas Cook, is leaving the company with immediate effect.

Green only joined Thomas Cook two years ago -- and won plaudits for revitalising its fortunes. Its share price has risen from 14p when she arrived, to around 137.9p yesterday

The company says:

Her remit was to transform the company, placing it on a sound financial footing with a solid operational team able to compete in the consumer travel market.

Green – who has declared that sleep is overrated (hear hear) – adds:

I always said that I would move on to another company with fresh challenges once my work was complete. That time is now.

But her departure is certainly a shock -- two years isn’t exactly a long stint as CEO.

And Thomas Cook may be heading into stormier waters; it says the trading environment is “tougher”, so: “we now expect to deliver further growth this year at a more moderate pace”.

A challenge for her successor, COO Peter Fankhauser.

Updated

The Agenda: UK growth report awaited

Good morning, and welcome to our rolling coverage of the economy, the financial markets, the eurozone and business.

Coming up this morning... we get the second estimate of UK GDP this morning, at 9.30am.

It should confirm that Britain’s economy grew by 0.7% in the July-September quarter, as first estimated last month.

The Office for National Statistics will also provide more details about how the economy performed; business investment is expected to have been pretty robust, while the services sector is outpacing manufacturing.

It’s the last healthcheck on the UK economy before the government publishes its Autumn Statement next week. And with election fever mounting in Britain (just six months to go!), the data will be scrutinised in the City and Westminster.

Growth of 0.7% would mean Britain has outpaced European rivals such as Germany and France, who only expanded by 0.1% and 0.3% respectively.

But it would leave us lagging behind America; its updated GDP data, released yesterday, showed quarterly growth of almost 1%.

Also coming up today....

There’s a deluge of US economic data this afternoon, as America clears the decks ready for the Thanksgiving turkey. That includes the latest durable goods data, and the weekly jobless figures.

European Commission President Juncker will get a break from criticism of Luxembourg’s tax regime, when he unveils his €315bn investment plan for Europe.

Well, officially it’s a €315bn plan, but it is actually only backed by around €20bn of seed capital. Juncker hopes to raise funds from private investors to drive new projects around Europe, to tackle the jobs crisis and inject more growth.

Greek ministers will continue talks in Paris with their lenders, in an attempt to close their latest bailout review. Yesterday’s negotiations were heavy going, it appears:

Kathimerini: Slow first day of troika talks in Paris

And the oil market could be lively, as OPEC members prepare for tomorrow’s meeting in Vienna. The latest murmurings are that oil producers are resisting cutting output, despite seeing the oil price tumble sharply in the last few months.

Updated

 

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