ITV is being taken to task on the erosion of its 16- to 34-year-old audience, as broadcasters enter the critical negotiation period for 2007's TV advertising spend.
The trading period, which runs roughly until Christmas, is crucial for broadcasters as agencies negotiate roughly 90% of their clients' TV advertising deals for next year.
Senior ITV executives - including the sales director, Gary Digby - are this week preparing programme presentations ahead of negotiations which kick off in earnest from November.
A number of media agencies have said that the decline of ITV1's dominance over 16- to 34-year-old viewers is set to hit a "tipping point" this year, where it runs the real risk of losing key advertisers.
In 2000, ITV1 accounted for about 44.2% of all commercial viewing by 16- to 34-year-olds. For 2006, the forecast is that this will have fallen to about 22.4%, according to media agencies.
Programming such as Love Island has largely failed to stem the migration of younger viewers to the likes of Channel 4, multichannel and other media such as online.
However, because of ITV's traditional market share advantage, the broadcaster has always been a "must buy" for brands, and so ads on the channel are significantly more expensive than other broadcasters.
"ITV1 has reached a tipping point where it is not just losing money from [contract rights renewal] but it could genuinely lose advertisers targeting 16- to 34-year-olds forever," said a director at one leading media agency.
"It is about the right environment and the right programmes, and ITV1 is expensive and doesn't have enough of the right content. Planners are for the first time discussing if ITV1 is worth almost twice the price when you can spread coverage to the likes of Channel 4 and multichannel."
Brands in areas such as sport, fashion, music, beer and film and entertainment are said to be likely candidates to question their traditional advertising spend on the 16-34 demographic with ITV1.
One TV director at a media planning and buying agency concurred that ITV1 is in crisis over the youth demographic, but argued that certain shows such as The X Factor, football, and stars such as Ant and Dec are still big draws.
"The 16- to 34-year-old audience is so bad [on ITV1] that the story is that, for the first time, it is possible to not have it on the schedule [for advertisers campaigns]. ITV isn't doing anything to rebuff that at the moment and the argument is gathering momentum," the director said.
"However, while smaller advertisers and youth brands might switch, shows like The X Factor show it is still the home of big audiences and big advertisers."
An ITV spokesman said: "In an average week, 70% of 16-34s tune in to ITV1. In addition, the channel has broadcast 332 of the top 500 commercial programmes so far this year among this demographic.
"Furthermore, since the beginning of autumn, ITV1's share of 16-34's has risen across both peak time and all-time hours."
The most recent predictions by media agencies are that ITV1 will be down as much as £215m - or 14% - in ad revenues for 2006 compared with last year.
And ITV's decline in overall share of advertising revenue is almost double that of the TV market in general - for the year it is looks likely to be down about 14% compared with the total TV market, which is set to be down about 6.5%.
However, ITV still delivers the single largest share of 16- to 34-year-olds of any broadcaster or channel.
"Despite the cost and other issues it would still be a brave advertiser that turns its back on ITV," said one observer.
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